So Here we are, five weeks in. If you want a refresher on the models used in this post, be sure to go to the original post this year. It can be found here.
Expected Wins by the Baltimore Orioles using Five Projections (5/6/2013)
| mJS | PWE | mBP | Parcells | fWAR | |
| 4/1/2013 | 72.6 | 81.0 | 74.9 | 81.0 | 81.0 |
| 4/8/2013 | 73.5 | 97.1 | 75.3 | 81.0 | 115.9 |
| 4/15/2013 | 73.9 | 88.0 | 76.1 | 81.0 | 94.5 |
| 4/22/2013 | 75.3 | 90.4 | 77.6 | 90.0 | 86.2 |
| 4/29/2013 | 77.1 | 98.0 | 79.4 | 97.2 | 90.3 |
| 5/6/2013 | 78.0 | 95.5 | 80.9 | 96.2 | 87.7 |
Well, the story is pretty much the same with mJS and BP slowly moving upward as the Orioles continue to win and beat teams they were not projected to beat. Wins, Run Differential, and fWAR all seem to think well of the team, too. So, no need to worry.
Baseball Prospectus‘ playoff probability of the team continues to increase: 5% -> 6.5% ->7.9% -> 11% -> 16.4% -> 22.9%.
Now for the fWAR.
AL Final Standings by fWAR (5/6/2013)
| Team | Wins | fWAR | Final | Rank |
| Tigers | 19 | 13.5 | 117.2 | Central |
| Red Sox | 20 | 11.5 | 107.1 | East |
| Rangers | 20 | 10.8 | 104.1 | West |
| Royals | 17 | 8.2 | 97.7 | WC1 |
| Indians | 14 | 8 | 91.7 | WC2 |
| Yankees | 18 | 7.8 | 91.1 | |
| Athletics | 18 | 8.4 | 90.3 | |
| Orioles | 19 | 7.5 | 87.7 | |
| Rays | 14 | 6.2 | 80.1 | |
| Twins | 13 | 4.3 | 74.2 | |
| Mariners | 15 | 4.5 | 70.5 | |
| ChiSox | 12 | 3.2 | 65.8 | |
| Angels | 11 | 2.9 | 61.7 | |
| Blue Jays | 11 | 2.5 | 59.4 | |
| Astros | 8 | 0.3 | 47.4 |
Fourth week in a row without playoff dreams.
NL Final Standings by fWAR (5/6/2013)
| Team | Wins | fWAR | Final | Rank |
| Rockies | 18 | 10.4 | 100.4 | West |
| Braves | 18 | 9 | 96.4 | East |
| Giants | 19 | 9.2 | 96.4 | WC1 |
| Reds | 18 | 8.5 | 90.7 | Central |
| Cardinals | 20 | 7.4 | 89.8 | WC2 |
| Dbacks | 16 | 7.6 | 86.6 | |
| Brewers | 14 | 6.1 | 79.6 | |
| Pirates | 17 | 5.1 | 77.0 | |
| Dodgers | 13 | 5.7 | 76.9 | |
| Nationals | 17 | 5 | 75.5 | |
| Mets | 12 | 4.5 | 72.9 | |
| Cubs | 11 | 5.4 | 72.3 | |
| Phillies | 14 | 2.7 | 63.2 | |
| Padres | 13 | 1.5 | 57.8 | |
| Marlins | 10 | 0.9 | 51.9 |
Jon Shepherd founded the Baltimore Orioles blog Camden Depot in 2007. In addition to Baltimore Orioles analysis, the blog also focuses on qualitative and quantitative approaches to assessing baseball in general as well as providing mainstream reviews and commentary on substances alleged to performance enhancing. Dr. Shepherd’s writing has been featured on ESPN, and his blog has been part of the ESPN Sweetspot Network since May 2011. He has made radio and podcast appearances for Orioles’ centered programs.