Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, or Mike Trout?

Baseball Prospectus decided to survey their staff asking the question: Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, or Mike Trout? They had 12 different writers give their opinions on who they would draft first if all three were draft eligible right now and polled 28 total staff members to determine the hypothetical draft results.

We all know that Harper and Trout are the sexier picks among this trio, for different reasons as well, but I can’t help but think that perhaps the BP staff is getting caught up in the hype and sexiness that is Harper and Trout.

For example, the staff that said they would choose Harper over the other two players routinely cited the fact that he is just 20 years old and has big-time power. Nick Faleris even made the comment that:

True, both Machado and Trout would be young stars in any era. But only Harper has the opportunity to transcend the game itself.

The things that the Harper drafters fail to mention though is the fact that he’s already proven he refuses to do anything less than play balls to the wall, a la Josh Hamilton, and as a result he’s already dealing with questions about his durability at 20 years old. If he keeps it up then his skills in the field will erode quickly and he will likely never quite be 100% on any given night. And that’s not to say that many players really ever are 100% but the damage inflicted upon Harper’s body already are worrisome.

One other thing that I can’t help but think about when trying to project Harper’s career is how comparable he is to Josh Hamilton in many, many ways. Naturally it can be a bit difficult to think about Harper in that regard because Hamilton derailed his career and promise very early on with drug abuse but the hype and skill set were both there when he was drafted by the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays in 1999 and as a result didn’t make his Major League debut until 2007, when he was 25 years old.

All that being said though, Harper will put up the numbers that were expected of Hamilton early on — and some — but the abuse he puts on his body on the field will ultimately take their toll and you are left with a player that is a shell of his former self and no amount of hype in the world will change that, a la Josh Hamilton.

Mike Trout on the other hand never had any of the hype that surrounded Harper and anyone that said they fully expected him to put up the historic season he did during his rookie campaign, that saw him become a member of a very exclusive club, likely isn’t being completely honest. That club being the 10-WAR club, something that just 21 players before (according to FanGraphs) him have done dating back to 1871, and his rookie season was arguably the greatest rookie season of all-time.

All that he has done since that rookie season is continue to put up MVP like numbers and we’re likely headed for another Trout vs. Miguel Cabrera for MVP debate by season’s end. The reasons cited for why certain BP staff would select Trout over Harper and Machado are his rare speed/power/fielding combo and the fact that he’s able to play a premium defensive position such as center field, although the Los Angeles Angels moved him off that position this season.

The other argument made for the selection of Trout over everyone else in all of baseball is that he has already put together a 10-win season, so we know that he’s capable of doing it, but more importantly there seems to be less risk in making him your franchise player for the next decade.

Trout is clearly the safest pick of the bunch considering what he has already accomplished and what you can imagine he will continue to do over his career but there are a couple of things that are concerning.

How likely is Trout to replicate his 10-win season?

Well, there are just 10 players who have had multiple 10-win seasons out of the, now, 22 players that have accomplished just that. That kind of repeat rate might have you giddy with excitement that Trout will do it again but it’s very unlikely. Here is the list of total number of 10+ win seasons had by the repeaters:

 

This list is rather impressive and if I had to compare Trout to anyone on this list it would have to be Willie Mays for that combination of speed, power, and fielding prowess. However, speed is a skill that tends to deteriorate as a player ages, most noticeably once they hit 30 years of age. In Trout’s case he is only getting bigger and that’s something else that will slow him down a touch, so while Trout may get a little stronger as he ages he’s also going to get a little slower and eventually that top tier speed we all love from him will no longer be there to help him on the bases or in the field.

How good is he going to be when his defense and speed slip and all he has left is his hitting skill? Will that be enough to propel him into the 10-win club once more? I know I’m getting a bit ahead of myself here talking about Trout as he ages since he’s still just 21 years old and will turn just 22 this August but unless he puts these epic seasons together over the next few seasons it’s even more unlikely to happen again.

Finally we have Manny Machado, the one being treated as the red-headed stepchild of the trio by BP staff. Let’s go ahead and get all of the reasons why Machado isn’t a sexy pick out of the way now. He will never steal 30 bases; hell, he’ll probably never even steal 20 in a single season. He will also likely never hit 40 or more home runs in a year, and he doesn’t seem to revel in getting a lot of attention from the media or anything like that. He simply goes about things in a very quiet and unassuming way — proving to be the consummate professional at just 20 years old.

Now let’s discuss all the reasons why Machado is the best pick of the trio if you’re drafting one of the three today.

His natural position is shortstop and do you know how many players are able to play that position well defensively and provide the offense that he has provided just this season?

Not many. Seriously, not many. Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, and a once upon a time Jimmy Rollins have really been the only players at the position that have been able to contribute with the glove and the bat.

He’s not playing his natural position though because the Baltimore Orioles have defensive wizard J.J. Hardy playing there still. Instead he’s been playing third base and he’s been playing it pretty damn well. Over his first 104 games in major league baseball he has already established himself as one of the better defensive players at the position, even though he had only played all of two games there before being called up last season.

So, how many players at third base are able to field it as well as him and provide solid offense the way he has been doing this season?

Not many. Seriously, not many. Beyond the established veterans such as Adrian Beltre and the recently retired Scott Rolen we really don’t have too many other third basemen in baseball that are fantastic with the glove and the bat. Tampa Bay Rays own Evan Longoria has proven his worth over his career so far but that’s really it when you are looking for top-tier defense and solid to really good offense.

Machado is currently tied with Miguel Cabrera for the most hits in baseball, with 77, leads all of baseball with 24 doubles, and is on pace for 60+ which hasn’t happened since 1936 and has only happened six times in the history of the game. On top of the offensive ability he’s developed at just 20 years of age, not to mention the fact that he has yet to grow into his body, he’s also considered one of the best defenders in all of baseball — not just third base.

Furthermore, what he lacks in flashiness and attitude he more than makes up for with substance and overall baseball intelligence.

Choosing any one of these players over the others shouldn’t be considered the bad selection though because they are each so talented and will be great over their careers, in my opinion, that it really boils down to preference. The staff at BP, and the majority of those that cover baseball, prefer Trout or Harper because of the speed, power, or one being a safer pick over the other.

What gets lost in all the media coverage and hype though, in this writer’s humble opinion, is that it’s so easy to get lost in all the media coverage and hype surrounding Harper or Trout that a player with just as high of a ceiling that goes about his business in a very quiet and humble manner is easily forgotten about.

If I had to choose one of these players in the draft today I would choose Machado and that isn’t a slight against Harper or Trout. It’s simply taking the player with the high ceiling and the ability to play two premium positions better than a large majority of other players can. Not to mention the fact that an all-star shortstop/third baseman with Machado’s skillset doesn’t come along very often. Just look around baseball and you will quickly agree. Whereas outfielders with speed and/or power are fairly plentiful these days and you can find those types of players with greater ease than you can a Manny Machado.