Discussion of the O’s Winter Meetings Rumors

You know the Winter Meetings are in full-swing, when message boards and the blog-o-sphere are in overload with rumors and conjecture.

With all of the instantaneous options for news, combined with an insatiable appetite for information from the public; you have a situation rife with half-truths, and poor reporting.

At differing times in the last two-days, there have been reports that Orioles have offered Felix Pie for Kevin Millwood, and a separate offer of David Hernandez and Brandon Erbe for Millwood.

With near certainty, I can state that neither one of those rumors has legs. Everyone that follows the O’s is aware that MacPhail holds a certain affinity for Pie. In the Baltimore Sun this morning, MacPhail is quoted as saying that neither Jones, nor Reimold have played a full-season in the Majors, and that Pie provides good depth. MacPhail is simply not going to move that depth, for a one year rental of Millwood.

Even if Texas picks up a significant portion of Millwood’s contract, there is zero chance of the O’s moving both Hernandez and Erbe for him. You can easily make a logical argument, that trading either Hernandez, or Erbe on their own for Millwood would be a poor decision. Trading both would be ludicrous.

The O’s interest in Millwood is likely genuine. The reason for their interest would be the desire to add a veteran starter to the 2010 staff, that they know will take the mound. Millwood has made at-least 25 starts in 8 consecutive seasons, including 7 seasons with at-least 29 starts. If Baltimore insists on adding Millwood, I would prefer they do it by picking up the majority of the contract owed to him ($12M in 2010). My rationale for that is, the more money Baltimore would pick-up, the less valuable of a prospect the O’s would have to send back. Outside of arms like Hernandez, and Erbe, I have seen other Oriole fans suggest names like Arrieta, and Britton. That just makes me scratch my head. If Texas will settle for a Berken, or a Steve Johnson; maybe a deal is possible. The story today that the Rangers asked for Chris Tillman, is nothing to be taken serious.

Millwood would probably give the O’s 180 innings, at a 4.50 era in 2010. There is value there, but nothing to go crazy over. There are numerous other options available if the player cost is anything above replacement-level player.

MLB.com reporter Spencer Fordin is reporting tonight that the O’s/Millwood rumors are cooling. I take that as Texas is realizing they will not get value back for him, and are now deciding if they just want to remove the contract. If the Rangers are desperate to get out of that $12M, a deal might be possible.

As suspected, the Orioles have also been talking to the Agent for Erik Bedard. Jim Duquette stated on XM Radio yesterday, that Bedard has told people he would like to return to Baltimore. Everything comes down to the medical reports of Bedard, and the recommendation of the O’s doctors. If the reports come-back that Bedard would be able to pitch by May, I expect Charm City will see a return of the lefty. If the reports come back that Bedard will not be able to pitch until July, the O’s will not present an offer.

If Millwood, and Bedard were both obtained; the O’s would go to camp with a crowded rotation. Once/if the O’s brass became comfortable with Bedard’s ability to contribute, you could safely assume the Orioles would be making Guthrie available. I say that because you definitively know Matusz, Tillman, and Bergesen will all be part of the 2010 rotation.

I think there are signs that MacPhail was prepared to actively pursue Rafael Soriano if he had not accepted Salary Arbitration with Atlanta. Now the question becomes, will Frank Wren and Atlanta look to trade Soriano, and remove his potential $7M salary? If so, will the O’s attempt to trade for his services? Luke Scott would garner interest from Atlanta, but I can not see the O’s making that trade. Scott is not a Free Agent until the 2013 season, while Soriano would be a Free Agent after 2010. ESPN’s Buster Olney has indicated Soriano will request a trade though.

I think the O’s do approach Atlanta about a trade, but I am not sure I see a deal working out. Similar to Millwood, it really would depend on how desperate Atlanta was to get out of Soriano’s contract. The Orioles would understandably prefer Soriano, but they are not going to pay-up in player talent to obtain him, when there are options like Fernando Rodney, and Jose Valverde available via Free Agency. The O’s are clearly not comfortable handing the closing job over to Uehara, and it seems apparent to me that Baltimore is going to make a run at one of these arms. I intentionally have omitted Mike Gonzalez from this mention, because there are reports of the Yankees, and RedSox both having interest. Unless Gonzalez was intent on closing, and the O’s told him he would definitively be the Closer; there is nothing Baltimore will be able to offer Gonzalez that New York, and Boston could not.

The Sun’s Peter Schmuck reported this morning that the O’s had interest in San Diego 3rd baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff. The interest is understandable, but I will be shocked if Baltimore were able to obtain him. His home and road splits are very pronounced like most Padres players, but he is 28 year-old, with some pop, and defensive ability. I believe he is not even a Free Agent until after the 2012 season. With the news tonight that Minnesota has offered Starter Glenn Perkins, I do not see how Baltimore could make a comparable offer. Perkins had a rough 2009, but the 2004 1st-round pick has 280 Major League innings, and 18 wins under his belt. The O’s are not going to be offering Brad Bergesen for Kouzmanoff, when they already have Josh Bell waiting in the wings.

ESPN’s Jayson Stark reported yesterday that the O’s were interested in 1st baseman Nick Johnson. If the Orioles want Brandon Snyder to get additional time in the Minors, and sign Johnson for a season, I can live with that. Johnson has never had a problem producing on the diamond, his problem has always been staying healthy.

For his career, Johnson has an .849 OPS, inclusive of a .402 On-base %. He has 487 walks, and 523 k’s for his career. His best season was 2006 with the Nationals, when he was able to play 147 games. For that year, he had 46 doubles, 23 homers, 110 walks, and a .948 OPS. He missed all of 2007, played in 38 games in 2008, and combined for 133 games with the Nationals and Florida Marlins in 2009. If signed for one year, it could be a productive addition. My preference would remain with starting the 2010 season with Scott at 1st, and Snyder in AAA; with the plan of bringing Snyder up to start everyday by June 1st.

There is some talk about the O’s having renewed interest in Dan Uggla, I think that is not going to happen. Uggla for the O’s only makes sense at 3rd-base, and Uggla has gone out of his way to state this off-season that he has no interest in that position. You could obtain him, and tell him that is going to be his position and to ‘deal’ with it, but that is not very practical.

MacPhail’s last quotes from tonight indicate they have yet to formalize an offer to any existing Free Agent. I am a bit surprised by that news, based on all of the earlier reports about 3rd-baseman Pedro Feliz. I hope this is indication that the O’s have decided the addition of Feliz would accomplish little.