So, you want to root for another team? Or you’re at least thinking about it. You just don’t have the heart for another 50-something-win season. Sure, you’re still an Orioles fan at heart, but sometimes you just need somebody with a chance. A hope. Live odds to reach the postseason.
Today, I’m going to present a few of my favorite clubs for 2022. These are teams that play under constraints (i.e. not the Dodgers or Yankees), will face challenges, and, most importantly, have live odds to win their division. We’ll start by throwing out the AL East. The Rays and Jays are fun ballclubs and deserve their share of non-local fans. However, as Orioles fans at heart, I’m sure you’ll prefer a little space from the divisional rivals. Not one of the teams I’ve selected today is favored to win their division. But they could! They have a path, and it’ll be a blast if they follow it. They’re also all viewable via MLB.tv. Sorry Nats fans. Juan Soto aside, Washington might be as bad as the O’s.
Without further ado…
My Top Pick: Kansas City Royals
On paper, the Chicago White Sox are everybody’s pick to win the division. FanGraphs projects them to win a cool 86 games with the rest of the division ranging from 75 to 82 wins. It’s a tight battle of mediocrity. Overall, it’s my favorite division. I’m a sucker for parity.
Chicago’s problem isn’t the indisputably excellent talent on the roster, it’s the lack of talent waiting in the wings. On one day last week, their bullpen dropped from one of the best in the league to mid-tier. An injury to Lance Lynn already threatens to expose the club to a Vince Velasquez start every five days. Velasquez, by the way, is a very Orioles pitcher. By which I mean he enjoys facilitating laser shows.
What’s so cool about the Royals? Well, the short answer is they’re a year or two ahead of the Orioles in their rebuild. They’re at a place Baltimore fans should see at home in the medium future. Where they differ is a willingness to hang onto well-regarded veterans. A stable backbone should help the club digest all the new, young talent making its way into the picture.
At first, Bobby Witt Jr. is the only rookie position player who will receive regular playing time. However, Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, and Kyle Isbel are all perched on the top step in Triple-A. Isbel might even make the club as a part-time fielder. This is a team built on athleticism and set to receive some seriously thump-tastic reinforcements throughout the season.
Pitching is a weakness, another aspect of the club that should feel familiar to Orioles fans. They’ve brought back an old friend, Zack Greinke, to headline a group of guys with promise. Brad Keller, Brady Singer, and Kris Bubic all have characteristics of mid-tier starters. Carlos Hernandez has the stuff and repertoire of a workhorse – though he still has to make adjustments. A deep pool of alternates wait in the wings, eager to step-in should a regular starter falter.
Other AL Central Clubs
The Guardians could have been my top pick if they hadn’t retrenched in a “spend nothing” mentality. They might yet win the division, though they’re likelier to finish last in my estimation. I figure Orioles fans have had enough of owners who cry poor.
The Tigers, like the Royals, are on the rise. And they acquired a couple big names over the offseason in Javy Baez and Austin Meadows. Spencer Torkelson made the club, and Riley Greene would have if not for a broken foot (though that might have prevented the Meadows trade). On the pitching side, Eduardo Rodriguez fronts a collection of promising and largely unproven starters. I expect a lack of pitching depth and offensive inconsistency will prevent this club from exceeding a .500 record.
The Twins are equally fun. From their surprise splash-signing of Carlos Correa to their somewhat bizarre flurry of trades, this is a team that might have just enough to outlast the Sox and Royals. Every spring, we can dream on this being the year Byron Buxton stays on the field. The lineup has the personnel to lead the league in home runs again. They even have depth at every position. The rotation looks like it could be a problem, but that’s partly because they’re opening with bad veterans to help some of their younger reinforcements like Jhoan Duran and Josh Winder make it through the season without injury.
Physically Nearby and Very Different: Philadelphia Phillies
Depending on who you talk to, the Phillies are either a favorite or sure to bust. An advantage for Orioles fans is the proximity to Citizen’s Bank Park. Should you want to watch the team play a September game with playoff implications, it’s just a two-hour drive.
The Phillies botched their rebuild, so they’ve developed a roster based upon spending extravagant sums. They project to have just two regulars on league minimum salaries – Matt Vierling and Bryson Stott (or, possibly, Alec Bohm). The other seven regulars are making bank and average over 30 years in age. The club has a potent rotation – only Kyle Gibson projects to be below average. The bullpen, which has failed them considerably over the last two seasons, looks to be a strength. Though it also looked that way heading into 2020 and 2021.
Like the White Sox – and also the Mets and Braves – the Phillies top shortcoming is depth. The Triple-A roster is composed almost entirely of Quad-A players. Guys they can’t expect to positively contribute when needed. Given their well-publicized poor defense and exceptional offense, this is a team that should produce a lot of shootouts.
Or, the Antonym: Miami Marlins
Where their division rivals opted for paper-thin potency, the Marlins have developed a deep roster without a ton of flash and sizzle. Their only notable weakness is center field where they’ve committed to playing a bat-first option who should be used in a corner (either Jesus Sanchez or Avisail Garcia). The strength of this club is the starting rotation which includes three possible aces (Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and Trevor Rogers), a spring training breakout story (Jesus Luzardo), and a perfectly cromulent fifth guy (Elieser Hernandez). They have multiple top pitching prospects on the farm – most notably Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera. While neither the position players nor the bullpen stands out for their talent, they also lack glaring weaknesses. They’re kind of like…
Miami but with Success: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew-Crew is all about their trip-aces. Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta lead the way with Adrian Houser, Eric Lauer, and the deeply fascinating Aaron Ashby rounding out the rotation. Ashby’s role remains uncertain – they’re talking about using a six-man unit. The bullpen is topped by Josh Hader and Devin Williams. The middle-innings crew is merely passable. On offense, trade bargain Willy Adames might be their best bat if Christian Yelich can’t shake a multi-season funk. None of the hitters are a pushover but neither do they have an excess of thumpery. Meanwhile, the NL Central looks to have overtaken the AL Central as the worst division in the league.
On a Geographic Island: Seattle Mariners
Seattle has similar feelz to the Royals but they spend more money and appear to be further along in the process. They are my personal favorites to win the AL West. Projections still strongly favor the Astros, but we’re over them by now, right? The Mariners bring all kinds of cool to the table. Julio Rodriguez made the Opening Day roster where he’ll join Jarred Kelenic in the youth movement. If a shortened Spring Training is any indication, Cal Raleigh is on the cusp of a breakout. Eugenio Suarez capably replaced Kyle Seager while Jesse Winker firmly upgrades the likes of Jake Bauers, Luis Torrens, and Jose Marmolejos. They bolstered their rotation with Robbie Ray. Matt Brash made the club out of spring training, joining Logan Gilbert. Prospect George Kirby will arrive in the very near future. The bullpen, even with Ken Giles set to miss more time, could be spectacular. This is a club with outsized talent and playable depth at every position. The only shortcoming is the inexperience of some key contributors. As we saw with Kelenic last season, not everybody has a smooth transition to the big stage.
A Final Few to Consider
The San Francisco Giants toppled the Dodgers in the NL West last season with a collection of misfits and legacy veterans. A repeat performance might be a tall ask, but they have the depth and resources to fight all season. Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres have the right mix of underdog status and sneaky talent. They could be the 2022 Giants – especially if the pitching staff clicks and Ha-Seong Kim shows up.
The Mets deserve some props for spending their way out of a hole. I find more joy chuckling at their inevitable misfortune. It’s a shame a little of the Mets spending didn’t infect the Cubs, Reds, Cardinals, or Pirates. If any of those clubs had put in any effort to improve over the winter, they could be favorites in a weak division. Instead, they’ve mostly raced to the bottom.
And that leaves me with the Angels and Rangers, two clubs who feel doomed to be left out in the AL West despite their best efforts. Maybe this is the season the top-heavy Angels finally stay aloft? Or perhaps the Rangers have an ace in the hole. They might need three aces in the hole.
Brad Johnson is a fantasy baseball analyst for NBC SportsEDGE. He also contributes to “Front Office” content at MLB Trade Rumors. You can additionally find his work and support him directly at Patreon.com/BaseballATeam or follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam.