We’ve moved into the final two weeks of the NFL regular season and what do you know, the AFC North standings are exactly where I predicted them to end up in my season preview back in September. Turns out I’m a freakin’ genius, or at least have a smidgen of insight-take your pick but be nice. Here’s how I think the teams will finish up the season.
I expected the Cincinnati Bengals to be the class of the division, and they have earned that status. The team has dealt with a significant amount of injuries throughout their secondary, defensive line, offensive line, and skill positions on offense, but they’ve built enough depth in their roster to have players capable of stepping up to fill those holes.
The Bengals have not always been consistent, but they have been in every game except their Thursday night stinker in Cleveland on Halloween night. Cincinnati is currently riding a seven-game winning streak as they await a visit from Buffalo on Monday night that should go a long way toward determining the top seed in the AFC playoffs.
Their last two wins have not been artistic gems, however. They trailed 17-3 at halftime in Tampa before the Bucs, specifically the aged wonder Tom Brady, went out of their way to give away the game after halftime with nice wrapping and a pretty little bow on top in the form of four turnovers. Cincy outscored Tampa Bay 31-6 in the second half to win going away on a night where they were outgained 396-237.
The script flipped last week, when the Bengals took a dominating 22-0 halftime lead at New England but wound up needing a late fumble from Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson to hang on for a 22-18 win. They won’t be able to get away with playing one good half against the Bills. Nor can they do that when the Ravens visit Cincinnati for the regular season finale in a game that will likely determine the AFC North championship and assure at least one home playoff game. A Ravens win would give them the tiebreaker edge.
Baltimore has been playing good defense against some bad offenses in recent weeks. The Ravens have won seven of their last nine and should have held on to beat Jacksonville instead of suffering a 28-27 last minute loss. Since then, the Ravens have only allowed a total of 45 points in their last four games. That’s the good news. The bad news is that they have scored only 46 points in that stretch.
I would not expect any change against the Steelers in the recently flexed Sunday night game. Another 16-14 win like Baltimore earned in Pittsburgh three weeks ago seems to be in the cards, which would improve John Harbaugh’s staggering 19-2 record at home in prime-time games. No wonder the Ravens get cranky when the organization believes they aren’t getting their fair share of prime-time appearances.
Even if Lamar Jackson does return from another lingering late-season injury in time to play at Cincinnati, there is no reason to expect dramatic improvement in the passing game. Opposing defenses have figured out that they need to give Mark Andrews special attention, and they can afford to do so with Rashad Bateman, and now Devin Duvernay out with injuries. Retreads Deshaun Jackson and Sammy Watkins have made plays here and there but can’t be counted on for consistent production.
The effectiveness of the running game with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Williams both available, and the spark that recently acquired LB Roquan Smith (SIGN.THE.MAN) has brought to the defense is what has taken Baltimore to the playoffs, but I don’t think it’s enough to beat Cincinnati. The Bengals offense is clicking better than when the Ravens squeaked out a 19-17 win against them in October, and I don’t believe Baltimore has the firepower to answer. The passing game will not be fixed in 2022 but needs to be in 2023. That reevaluation and realignment of coaches and players will be John Harbaugh’s most important task once this season is over.
Pittsburgh, despite their offensive struggles, remains alive for a playoff spot, but a lot of chips would have to fall in place…like they did last season. Even if the Steelers miss the playoffs, they still have an opportunity to extend Mike Tomlin’s streak of non-losing seasons as head coach to 16, which covers his entire career. They host Cleveland in their finale but have to find a way to win in Baltimore to finish 9-8.
The Steelers posted an emotional win last week as the team celebrated the 50th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception but mourned the sudden, unexpected passing of its key figure, Franco Harris. Beyond Harris’ Hall of Fame production on the field, he had stayed in Pittsburgh and continued to make major contributions to the Steelers organization and players and to the city. His loss was crushing, but the 2022 team rose to the challenge when rookie QB Kenny Pickett overcame uneven play earlier in the game to lead his team to the winning touchdown in the final minute against the Raiders.
I would expect the team to be somewhat letdown, perhaps even spent, after all the emotion of that week-not a great way to come into Baltimore for a national TV game. They could also very well be eliminated from the playoffs by kickoff Sunday night. I expect a typical Ravens-Steelers slugfest. With no Ben Rothlesberger to pull the game out for Pittsburgh, I expect Baltimore to find a way to squeak out a win and get the season sweep.
In Cleveland, the grade for Deshaun Watson’s return to active duty would most generously be an I for Incomplete, if not a D for disappointing. The Browns have gone 2-2 since Watson assumed the starting QB duties for the Browns but he had little to do with either win against Houston and Baltimore. Those were driven by the Cleveland defense, which has underachieved most of the season but played better of late. Substitute quarterback Jacoby Brisset actually has a much higher QB rating for the season, 88.9 vs. Watson’s 69.3.
So, was this whole Watson trade/saga a mistake for the Browns? It is still too early to tell. Although it was due to his own actions, it needs to be remembered that Watson sat out almost two years, not counting some brief preseason action last August. I find it unreasonable to believe that he has lost it since he will just turn 28 years old at the start of next season. The lowest previous QB rating he posted for a season was 98.0, which would put him among the league leaders this year.
Next season will be a truer test of how much value Deshaun Watson will bring to the Browns. He’ll have the entire offseason to work with the team and won’t face the uncertainty of when or if he will be allowed to play. What he may have to deal with, though, is a new coach. I wonder how much input Watson will have in that. Remember, things went sour for him in Houston first not because of his off the field issues, but because the Texans had the nerve to hire a new head coach without first consulting Watson.
Watson demonstrated in Houston that he will not work with a situation that does not revolve around him, which is what he grew up with in high school and what Head Coach Dabo Swinney provided at Clemson. If Watson is comfortable with Kevin Stefanski, we will probably see Stefanski back in 2023 with a reworked staff. If Watson has not meshed well with Stefanski, well, we’ll just have to wait and see. Keep the popcorn handy.
In summary, I continue to expect Cincinnati to win the division and, since they have Kansas City’s number, to return to the Super Bowl. That would leave the Ravens likely in the #5 seed playing at the AFC South champion, either Jacksonville or Tennessee. A brief tip of the cap to the job that coach Doug Pederson has done with the Jaguars, cleaning up the mess that Urban Meyer made and getting their young franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence on track to be just that. I bet the Ravens would like another crack at Jacksonville, and they just might get it. A playoff win would be a nice step up from last year for Baltimore, but as I wrote earlier still leave much work to be done to get further.
Missing the playoffs and posting their first losing record since 2003 would be a tough pill for the Pittsburgh organization and fans to swallow. Look for coaching changes on offense, but Mike Tomlin will be back. As I mentioned earlier, I don’t know about Kevin Stefanski’s return in Cleveland. They have underachieved the last two seasons and not many coaches without a proven track record get another crack at it in that situation.
I hear Sean Peyton is available but isn’t a fan of cold weather. I wonder if the chance to work with Deshaun Watson would be enough to sway him. I wonder if he would have enough confidence in the Browns organization to consider joining it. Sean Peyton will be at the heart of this season’s coaching carousel. We’ll see if the Browns will be players.
I’ll be back when the regular season ends to preview the playoffs for at least two AFC North participants.
You can follow me on Twitter @jimjfootball.
Jim Johnson spent most of his life in Maryland, growing up with the Orioles, the Colts, Terps, and later Ravens. He started his sports writing career as “The Courtmaster,” covering the Terps and ACC hoops and was a frequent guest on Bob Haynie’s old WNST show and other sports talk across the region. He is currently in his second run at BSL. After previously covering Maryland and Big Ten Football, he now writes about the NFL, primarily the action in the AFC North. Jim covers both current and historic stories, seeking perspective and having fun in the process.