We are into the final third of the seemingly endless NFL season, so we’ve got enough data points to take a look at who’s stock is rising, and who’s is falling.
Stock Up: The Cincinnati Bengals
The 2022 season has been a bumpy ride for the Bengals, but they are successfully riding it out. After a 2-3 start (with the three losses coming by a total of eight points), Cincinnati has won five of six, only losing that inexplicable Browns game on Thursday night. The last two weeks, they have beaten two likely playoff teams, Tennessee and Kansas City.
The Bengals defense stuffed the Titans star running back Derrick Henry, holding him to only 38 yards on 17 carries in their 20-16 win. The following week, they held Patrick Mahomes to 223 yards passing in a 27-24 win. Cincinnati scored on their first three possessions of the second half, all between four to five minutes long, and ran out the final 3:19 of the game. They have now won three in a row vs. the Chiefs within the last 12 months.
I believe the development that has them looking like a championship contender again is the emergence of a running game. That has been an issue for them most of the season despite having a star running back, Joe Mixon. He has only averaged over 3.4 yards per carry in three of the ten games in which he has played this season and only broken a run for longer than 12 yards in two games.
Mixon went down with a concussion against the Steelers in Week 11, and his replacement Samaje Perine has given the Bengals ground game a jump start. Interestingly, Perine was a teammate of Mixon’s at Oklahoma, drafted in the fourth round by Washington the same year Mixon was picked by Cincinnati in the second. Perine is a stocky, north-south runner who has seen spot duty with the Bengals the prior three seasons and has developed into an effective receiver.
Even when Mixon returns, I would expect Perine to at least split time with him if not receive most of the carries. Perine’s emergence is allowing Joe Burrow to run a balanced offense, explosive when it sees the opportunity but able to move the ball if the deep stuff is not available. Most importantly it keeps Burrow upright. This also keeps their defense rested and makes them a very dangerous team, perhaps playing better than any team in the AFC.
Stock Down: The Baltimore Ravens
I know Baltimore sits tied with the Bengals for first in the division and holds the tiebreaker. I know they finish with four games against losing teams before their finale at Cincy. I also know their last two home games, wins over Carolina and Denver, were almost unwatchable. Wins are good, but those types of games not only don’t inspire confidence, they erode it.
Lest I forget their latest fourth quarter defensive collapse, at Jacksonville of all places. Jaguars coach Doug Pederson, who led Philadelphia to their only Super Bowl victory in 2018, is doing a good job of removing the stench of Urban Meyer’s partial season in Jax and is building a solid foundation for their #1 overall draft pick, Trevor Lawrence (dude, get a haircut will you? Just had to throw that in). Even with that though, the Ravens should have put that game away-not exactly confidence building either.
Now Baltimore faces time without Lamar Jackson, who has been struggling himself as he feels the loss once again of WR Rashod Bateman. I like his replacement Tyler Huntley a lot. I thought he did an admirable job last season without much around him to work with, keeping the Ravens competitive against teams like the Rams and Packers when that didn’t seem realistic.
The biggest difference between them, though, is that Lamar is always a threat to bust a big play, either with his arm or his legs. Huntley makes plays too, but they are smaller. He needs several of them to conduct a long drive, like the game winner against Denver. Huntley led the Ravens on a 16 play, 91-yard drive in 4:34 to win the game, converting two fourth downs in the process-that’s a lot of little (not unimportant) plays to make with minimal margin for error.
With Huntley at the controls, Gus Edwards in the backfield, and it looks like Ronnie Stanley back in action at left tackle, Baltimore’s offense may be able to grind out wins against the Steelers (home and away), at Cleveland, and home vs. the Falcons. That does not match up well with the Bengals, so to hold on to the division the Ravens need Jackson’s return and hopefully a little help from Cincinnati’s opponents.
Stock Up: The Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is finally able to see the fruits of their mega deal to obtain Deshaun Watson, who made his first start in Houston last week. Although the Browns won 27-14 (on two defensive touchdowns and a punt returned for a touchdown), Watson looked like someone who had not played in a regular season game in nearly two years.
I would expect Watson to find his way back to somewhere near his previous outstanding level of play during the final five games of the season and be ready to make a major impact next year. A team floundering at 4-7 after a stretch where they lost six out of seven like Cleveland did doesn’t often get a jolt of energy at this point in the season like Watson’s debut/return/whatever. They could be dangerous spoilers in their games with the Bengals, Ravens, and Commanders.
I’m not at all sure that will be enough for the organization to bring Kevin Stefanski back as head coach, even if he fires defensive coordinator Joe Woods, which seems inevitable and reasonable given how underachieving the Browns defense has been this season. I think Stefanski has also underachieved with a talented team and should probably return to an offensive coordinator position where his temperament seems better suited. The Browns need a leader in the mold of Mike Tomlin or John Harbaugh, not someone wired more for analytics like Stefanski is.
Stock Down: Most of the national sports media
Most of the sports media I saw last week just didn’t know what to do with Deshaun Watson, so they generally blipped over the reason for his suspension and stuck to football. One notable exception to that was ESPN NFL Countdown host Samantha Ponder. She gave a passionate yet balanced verbal essay about Watson’s situation, which she categorized as “This isn’t he said she said, it’s he said they all said.” Her summary, from the story linked above, is worth posting here. ESPN has apparently taken the video down.
“We have a clear, but uncomfortable choice to make, one the Cleveland Browns already made with their money. Is he a conniving predator or a sympathetic victim?” Ponder asked through tears. “A wolf in sheep’s clothing, or prey to manipulative liars who only see double dollar signs? Are we privileged enough to not really have to think about it? Unaffected enough to just move on and cheer as long as he serves his purpose to win games and generate profit? Right.”
I spent some time this year contributing to a Cleveland sports site and wrote a series about Watson. I saw a lot of dialogue between the writers, most of whom made their choice to accept, and likely embrace, Watson as someone who could lead their woebegone franchise back to the playoffs. They may be right.
That’s a choice I’m glad I don’t have to make.
Stock Up: The Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have shown some life in recent weeks, winning three of their last four. Granted, the three wins came against the Saints, Colts, and Falcons, all teams with losing records, but they did give the Bengals all they could handle before falling, 37-30.
In their 19-16 win at Atlanta, the offense still did not put many points on the board. Oddly, the only team they have scored more than 20 points against is Cincinnati, twice. In Atlanta, however, QB Kenny Pickett had his best game and RB Najee Harris continued his upswing, gaining 86 or more yards rushing in three of his last four games. This included one of the most wicked stiff arms you will see-Harris just pushed a defensive back to the ground and went on his way.
Stock Down: The pundits that wrote off the Steelers
Pittsburgh would have to win their last five games to even have a shot at the playoffs since they are currently 5-7. That is extremely unlikely. They could, however, salvage a winning season and keep Mike Tomlin’s streak of never having a losing season alive if they win four of their last five. The Steelers have home and home against the Ravens, at Carolina, and home against the Raiders and Browns. Yes, there is a chance they could win four of those games.
If you read my last column, and shame on you if you didn’t, you’ll know that I was one of those pundits that wrote Pittsburgh off. Thanks a lot Tomlin!
Of course, if the Steelers revert and lose most of those games, please disregard everything after Stock Up: Pittsburgh Steelers.
You can follow me on Twitter @jimjfootball
Jim Johnson spent most of his life in Maryland, growing up with the Orioles, the Colts, Terps, and later Ravens. He started his sports writing career as “The Courtmaster,” covering the Terps and ACC hoops and was a frequent guest on Bob Haynie’s old WNST show and other sports talk across the region. He is currently in his second run at BSL. After previously covering Maryland and Big Ten Football, he now writes about the NFL, primarily the action in the AFC North. Jim covers both current and historic stories, seeking perspective and having fun in the process.