The Baltimore Orioles will go into this season with some intriguing starting pitchers at the higher levels of their farm system, and some could make their major-league debuts in the rotation at some point in 2020.
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To this point in the offseason, the Orioles have not done much to address their starting rotation, with notable transactions including the signing of free agent Kohl Stewart and the selection of Brandon Bailey in the same Rule 5 draft that saw them choose Michael Rucker, who has professional experience as a starter but primarily pitched as a reliever in the Chicago Cubs farm system last year. With John Means, Alex Cobb, and Asher Wojciechowski likely accounting for three of the five rotation slots on Opening Day, and the starting five sure to be in flux at various points as 2020 unfolds, there could be openings for some of the team’s top pitching prospects to make their major-league debuts during the season.
The two most obvious contenders are Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer, both of whom are coming off of solid 2019 seasons and were added to the 40-man roster during the offseason. Their development schedules could differ slightly from each other in 2020, however, given their professional experience thus far.
Akin spent all of last season at Triple-A Norfolk, holding his own in the hitter-friendly International League by posting a 4.73 ERA and striking out a league-leading 131 batters in 112 1/3 innings pitched. One knock on the left-hander throughout his professional career has been control issues, evidenced last year by his 4.9 BB/9 rate, and he will need to show improvement in that area before working his way into the rotation.
That said, that is not an issue that should hold Akin back for too long—especially if the Orioles are not thrilled with their other options and believe that they could further his development in the majors. Even if he does not make the team out of spring training, Akin stands a good chance of reaching Baltimore early in the season, especially if his initial returns back at Norfolk suggest that he has turned a corner when it comes to his control.
Kremer, meanwhile, is coming off of a season that saw him post impressive numbers across three levels of the minors after recovering from an oblique injury that sidelined him at the beginning of the year. He was able to carry that momentum over to his stint in the Arizona Fall League, and his placement on the 40-man roster this offseason puts him in a good position to reach Baltimore at some point in 2020.
Whereas Akin has a full year at Triple-A under his belt, Kremer’s only time at the level has been the four starts he made for Norfolk at the end of last season. Putting him back in Norfolk for a while, perhaps until June or later, might be the path that the Orioles choose from Kremer. Plus, the Orioles showed a conservative approach with their top pitching prospects in 2019, reflected in part by their decision to not bring Akin to the majors and to keep former first-round picks DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez at one level during the season. If the restrained approach is something that the Mike Elias-led front office regime plans to carry into 2020, then it could apply to Kremer, who the Orioles would not want to rush to Baltimore.
Akin and Kremer are the two most notable pitching prospects that are likely to make their MLB debuts this season, though there are others that should not be counted out entirely. Zac Lowther, Michael Baumann, and Alex Wells are consensus top prospects in the organization and should see time at Norfolk this year. None of them are on the 40-man roster yet, but Wells and Lowther have displayed a level of durability and control throughout their careers that could make them compelling options to promote this season.
Wells benefitted from an Arizona Fall League stint following this season, and he has been notoriously stingy when it comes to issuing walks over the span of his professional career (1.4 BB/9 rate over 475 career innings, including a 1.6 mark at Bowie last year). The crafty southpaw has never overpowered hitters with his repertoire of pitches, but if he is able to maintain that level of control this year and avoid giving up hard contact, the Orioles might feel comfortable with giving him a crack at the majors at some point this season. Lowther has had similar success in his career while showing that he can handle a high workload, meaning that he might be a viable rotation option later in the season.
If the Orioles wanted, they could probably fast-track Baumann by moving him to the bullpen, but they figure to let him continue working out of the rotation and refine his secondary offerings. He made considerable strides between Frederick and Bowie last year, so the Orioles will likely take their time with him this season to allow him to build off of that success. If he pitches well in the minor leagues, he could be another late-season rotation option at the major-league level.
While he does not rate as highly as a prospect as the aforementioned options, another potential rotation option that might have a shot at making his major-league debut this season is Bruce Zimmermann. The left-hander has been effective since joining the Orioles’ organization from Atlanta as part of the Kevin Gausman/Darren O’Day trade in 2018 and found that success despite not having the stuff of more highly rated prospects. He will need to carry this over to Norfolk—where he made seven starts at the end of last season after spending most of the year in Bowie—but if he is able to find success there, he might emerge as an option to receive a spot start or a handful of major league appearances at some point during this season.
Orioles Analyst
A graduate of the University of Massachusetts, and Loyola University; Spedden has previously spent time in the Washington Nationals organization as a videographer for the Hagerstown Suns. As a blogger, Spedden is an Editor / Writer for the Suns fan club. Additionally, he contributes to The Nats Blog as a prospect writer, and Ballpark Digest. For BSL, Spedden covers the Orioles Minor Leagues. Co-Host of The Verge: https://anchor.fm/the-verge