AL East Beat: 5 Things, Week Three

Injuries. Every team has them and over the course of a 162 game schedule no team goes unscathed. Every organization will be challenged and will have to produce solutions that still allow for contention. No team can replace a superstar, but a quality organization can still find a way to either bide time until a player returns or until the front office can make a move.

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With the American League East so competitive, injuries will play an even more important role in the race as the differences from the top teams to the bottom teams are just too slim. The early going has already given a glimpse to the fragility of each team. The Tampa Bay Rays’ depth is being challenged for the first time in many years. The Yankees are dealing with injuries to the likes of Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter and Brian Roberts; they’ve lost their backup catcher, Francisco Cervelli for quite some time. The Red Sox are nursing injuries to Koji Uehara and Dustin Pedroia. The Blue Jays lost Jose Reyes and Casey Janssen right as the season began. The healthiest team, the Baltimore Orioles, are still waiting for their young, superstar third baseman to return from a gruesome leg injury that he suffered last season.

As the injuries mount, the American League East is in constant movement. The Rays are no longer a runaway favorite. The Red Sox and Yankees aren’t particularly deep. That makes the AL East a division that can be had by any of its teams. The power of the 162 schedule is always the ultimate test of strength.

“Epidemic” Hits Tampa

Last week, Matt Moore threw a pitch, winced in pain, and is now on line for Tommy John Surgery. This week, the Rays lost Alex Cobb, the right hander who has quietly become one of the best pitchers in the sport. Cobb will miss approximately four to six weeks with an oblique strain. The news stings the Rays on a number of levels. They are an organization that has done extremely well with pitcher health. Quietly, they had run out essentially the same rotation for the past three or four years. This year, they have already started six different pitchers. Erik Bedard, who is replacing Cobb, will be the 7th. A rotation of David Price, Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Cesar Ramos, and Bedard isn’t one that is championship caliber.  The Rays’ organization has the reputation of being extremely deep, but their reality has been exposed; there is a big game between their Major League roster and players who are ready to make the jump. With the rotation hurting, the Rays will need more from their offense, which may be too much to ask.

While Cobb’s injury isn’t arm related, the Rays’ injury problems has once again brought Tommy John Surgery back into the mainstream consciousness. It is being portrayed as some new epidemic. It may make for a good headline, but the truth is that pitchers have been getting hurt at an alarming rate for quite some time. Will Carroll has been writing about pitching injuries for at least a decade. I’ve been fortunate to be exposed to the science of Biomechanics because of Carroll and Rick Peterson, the Orioles Director of Pitching. The epidemic started long ago. Teams haven’t done anything. Many writers are now discussing the idea of pitch counts in Little League. They have been instituted for many years. Dr. James Andrews has been an advisor to Little League for the decade.

Pitch limits are just the beginning. They, however, do not stop the problem. If they did, we would see so many more healthy pitchers in Major League Baseball. Pitch limits are designed to reduce fatigue. Fatigue is actually the cause of pitching injuries because it leads to poor, dangerous mechanics, the ultimate killer of pitcher health. Because pitchers, especially young pitchers, are not in proper condition, they are throwing pitches with poor mechanics. That is what leads to injury.

The Orioles are in good shape because of their use of Biomechanics. While they cannot eliminate injuries because pitchers come to them with various histories, the Orioles will likely be a healthier organization. If Major League Baseball is concerned about reducing injuries, teams must invest in Biomechanics. For those who doubt the science, what else is there? Nothing else has worked.

Yankees’ Win With Tanaka And Pineda

CC Sabathia is no longer pitching like an ace. Evidently Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman was preparing for that as his investment in Masahiro Tanaka looks to be quite sound. The 25 year old right hander has made three impressive starts that have come with 28 strikeouts in 22 innings of work. He has allowed just 15 hits and has walked just two batters. One can talk sample size and there are many “what ifs?” with Tanaka during his first season, but he has already demonstrated elite level control, elite level stuff, and the ability to miss bats. He is already the Yankees best pitcher. While he isn’t on the level of Yu Darvish, Tanaka already looks to be an elite level starting pitcher. His presence and his continued performance is a difference maker in the AL East race.

Cashman also looks good with the return of Michael Pineda. The 25 year old right hander has returned from labrum surgery and looks to be in the form that made him one of the brightest stars in the sport just a couple of seasons ago. In his three starts, he has pitched 18 innings, allowed 13 hits, 3 walks, 2 runs, and has struck out 15 batters.

With Ivan Nova and Hiroki Kuroda looking like they will produce to their respective expectations and Sabathia still a quality starter, it looks like the Yankees now hold the title of best rotation in the division.

Red Sox Missing Power

The Boston Red Sox are right in the middle of the pack in the early going. One troubling sign for the defending champions is their lack of power. While Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Will Middlebrooks (on DL), should develop power, 2014 won’t be that breakout for the trio. That leaves the Red Sox heavily dependent on David Ortiz and Mike Napoli. Grady Sizemore’s revival has been the story of the season thus far, but he isn’t the prototypical power hitter. AJ Pierzynski isn’t a power hitter and Dustin Pedroia looks like he is struggling with health in the early going. Their current state leaves the Red Sox and Rays fighting for the title of least powerful offense in the division.

Britton Thriving

With his three shutout innings appearance against the Rays on Wednesday, Zach Britton has run his season totals to 11.1 scoreless innings while giving up 4 hits, 4 walks, and eliciting 7 strikeouts. This is precisely the role that the southpaw should’ve thrived in as he is an elite ground ball pitcher who is generating outs via the ground ball at over an 80 percent rate. While this type of performance is destined to regress a bit (FIP of 3.01) due to his dependence on the defense, limiting Britton to one or two passes through the lineup hides his weaknesses and allows him to work from the strength of his elite sinking fastball. There should be zero thought of a return to the rotation as the middle inning relief role is perfect given his skill set. This role allows him to utilize his fastball, throw it harder (averaging 94 MPH with it as a reliever) in short bursts, and elicit swings and misses with pitches in a strike zone at a career best rate of 14.5 percent. The Orioles have a major strength in the bullpen.

Nothing To Worry About With Davis

Chris Davis has just one home run in the team’s first 14 games. Last season, he had already blasted six long balls at this point. But, there is nothing to worry about. Davis is still posting a strikeout rate like he did last season. His 23.7 percent strikeout rate is virtually the same to his 2013 rate of 23.6. Even more encouraging, his walk rate is up slightly to 11.9 percent, compared to his 2013 walk rate of 10.6 percent. He has four doubles on the season and is otherwise hitting quite similarly to his 2013 standards. Home runs will come, but many should be encouraged that Davis he is taking a few more walks. The lone change in Davis’ approach is that he has made contact with more pitches that were outside of the strike zone. He’s made contact with pitches out of the zone at an 85.1 percent rate, which is about 7 percent higher than his career rate. The home runs will come regardless, but a bit more patience should lead to better contact.