On June 22, 2022, Austin Hays drilled a double into the left-center field gap to cap off a six-inning cycle in one of the greatest individual performances of the season. The four-for-four day raised his season slash line to an impressive .287/.347/.482, and after years of mediocrity, it appeared as though the once top-25 prospect had finally unlocked his full potential.
What followed was a dreadful three-month span that saw him bat just .220 with four home runs and 48 strikeouts in his final 209 at-bats of the year. Though he never spent time on the IL, injuries once again played a role in the outfielder’s struggles as an apparent wrist ailment bothered him for much of July and August.
Hays’ disappointing end to the year led many fans to call for the outfielder to be traded prior to the start of the 2023 season. Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander had shown far more consistency, and with Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad growing closer to their major league debuts, Hays seemed to be the odd man out.
However, throughout the first half of 2023, Hays has done nothing but produce for Baltimore, proving that the front office was right to stand by him through his struggles. The 27-year-old’s .312/.352/.491 slash line is the best of his career and was enough to earn his first trip to the All-Star game.
Obviously Hays’ improved health has played a large role in his improvement, but what have been the other keys to his sudden turnaround? Let’s take a look at three statistical trends that provide some insight into what is behind the left fielder’s tremendous first half.
Picking His Pitches
Hays has been most successful this season when he has jumped on pitches early in an at-bat. On first pitches, he is slugging a ridiculous .781 with 20 hits in 41 at-bats. His stats with an 0-1 or 1-0 count are almost as good and he currently boasts a .422 batting average when putting the second pitch of an at-bat in play. What’s fascinating is that his overall swing percentage and his swing percentage on first pitches have both dropped, indicating that he has found a good balance between taking tough pitches and attacking hittable ones.
This better overall approach has also led him to cue in on fastballs, the pitch against which he has always found the most success. Of the 141 at-bats he has had that ended with a fastball, 50 have resulted in hits with 17 going for extra bases. That’s good for a .355 batting average and a .553 slugging percentage, both huge leaps from the .241 and .363 marks he set last season.
Given that Hays is seeing just 51.9% fastballs, the lowest rate he has faced since 2019, it has been crucial for him to be aggressive against them when given the opportunity. That hasn’t always resulted in successful at-bats as evidenced by his 16.9% whiff rate against them, the highest of his career. More often than not, however, it has worked out in his favor and his stats have improved as a result.
Finding The Barrel
Thanks to his improved approach and decision-making, Hays has been barreling up balls at a much higher rate than in years past. His barrel rate (10.4%) and barrels per plate appearance (7.3%) are the highest of his career. In fact, he has already tied his barrel total from last season (22) in just half as many plate appearances.
While barrels don’t always translate into better results on the field (see Ryan Mountcastle), Hays has benefited greatly from finding the sweet spot. Just a year removed from a season in which he was in the bottom half of qualified hitters in average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and xwOBA, Hays ranks in the 69th, 54th, and 57th percentile in each statistic respectively.
Improved barrel and hard contact rates reveal themselves to be even more important to his success when you consider that Hays’ whiff rate and strikeout rate have both risen since last season. By crushing the pitches he can hit, Hays has been able to minimize the negative impact of his whiffs while reaching base and driving in runs at some of the highest rates of his career.
Getting Some Luck
While Hays deserves a lot of credit for his growth at the plate, it should be noted that he has also benefited from a great deal of luck. His expected batting average (.260) and expected slugging percentage (.466) are both significantly lower than his actual marks of .312 and .491. While it is not uncommon for players to exceed their expected statistics, it is difficult to continue to do so for the entire duration of a 162-game season.
Still, Hays’ expected statistics rank in the upper half of the league, suggesting that even without luck on his side he would still be enjoying a career-best year. His expected batting average is in the 57th percentile among qualified hitters and his expected slugging percentage is in the 76th, both huge improvements from his marks in 2022 (37th and 33rd). Furthermore, given the amount of bad luck Hays has endured throughout his career in the form of injuries, it’s fitting that things are finally falling in his favor.
Whether or not Hays can continue to produce at a high level for the rest of 2023 remains to be seen, but there’s no denying he has earned every ounce of recognition he will get at this year’s All-Star game. He has had to traverse a long and difficult path to get to where he is now, and it’s difficult to imagine where this Orioles team would be without his production. His health, and his continued dominance at the plate, could be the determining factors in Baltimore’s pursuit of a playoff spot this year.
Luke Rollfinke is a student at Vanderbilt where he is pursuing a career in sports journalism. A recent graduate from the Friends School of Baltimore, Luke has spent his entire childhood in Charm City and is a devoted Orioles fan. In the past, he has written for SB Nation and has worked closely with Ravens columnist John Eisenberg. From nights at Camden Yards to Sunday afternoons watching NFL Redzone, Luke eats, sleeps, and breathes sports. He is excited to bring his perspective to BSL.