It’s always about the money. Teams will talk about limiting innings and making sure that a player is ready for the rigors of a Major League Baseball team lineup. They’ll talk about protecting players and how a young player needs to be nurtured. But, we all know the truth. Like the real world, it’s all about the money.
A year of control is at stake for the Orioles as they do their best to limit Gausman from accumulating enough time on the Major League roster that would qualify as a year of service, thus making him a year closer to being eligible for arbitration and then free agency. It’s standard practice around Major League Baseball. The Orioles are not forfeiting their season or decreasing their chances of competing by holding Gausman down.
{Discuss Gausman’s potential impact on the BSL Boards}
In fact, their rotation is the least of their worries as the solid, yet unspectacular group has been consistent. Each of the five members haven’t missed a turn, with Gausman making one start to give a day of rest to the rotation. The group has been, at best, average. By WAR standards, the rotation ranks just 14th in the American League. Their 4.20 FIP ranks just 13th in the league. The rotation doesn’t rank in the top five in any category, but they have managed to give those consistent league average type of starts.
Despite the rotation’s dependability, it is a group that can, at best, lead to a .500 season. With the offense struggling to find any sort of consistency because of injuries and a bullpen that has turned out to be shallow and overworked, the rotation does need an upgrade.
Enter Gausman.
Despite Gausman’s poor 2014 Major League debut, in which he gave up five runs on six hits and two walks in just four innings, Gausman represents the Orioles’ best chance to upgrade the rotation in season. Of course, they could always trade for a difference making starter such as Jeff Samardazija. That, however, would cost some of the prospects that the Orioles are finally starting to accumulate.
In Gausman, the Orioles have the possible ace that the rotation is still looking for. Chris Tillman has lost some velocity and has, in many ways, regressed from last season. Ubaldo Jimenez continues to be the frustrating pitcher he has shown to be during his career. Wei Yin Chen, Bud Norris, and Miguel Gonzalez have varying degrees of potential, but none are anything close to an ace.
At this point, the Orioles need to see Gausman perform at the Major League level. Some may ask for him to dominate at the Triple-A level before this, but those are people who haven’t been paying attention to his 2014 season. Through nine Triple-A starts, Gausman has pitched 41.2 innings. He’s allowed 36 hits, 17 walks, and has struck out 42 batters to go along with his 2.40 ERA and 3.49 FIP.
The overall numbers look impressive, but since a slow start to his season, Gausman has been even better for the Norfolk Tides. Since April 20th, Gausman has made six starts, spanning 29.2 innings. He’s allowed 22 hits, 9 walks, 6 runs (5 earned), and has struck out 31 batters. There is simply nothing left to prove.
Everything has gone right for the Orioles in 2014 in terms of the division. The Blue Jays are hot at the moment, but unless they make a deal, they don’t have the pitching to run away with the division. The Yankees and Red Sox have been streaky. The Rays are in the middle of a terrible year. The 2014 East Division is most certainly winnable. Despite terrible offensive production, a terrible bullpen, and just average starting pitching, the Orioles are just 4.5 games behind the Blue Jays. It’s all there for them. They need their offensive to produce close to preseason expectations. Barring health, there is every reason to believe that the offense will improve. Chris Davis will hit home runs. Adam Jones will get going. Manny Machado will figure it out. JJ Hardy will hit a home run at some point. Jonathan Schoop is learning on the job. Nelson Cruz, once back from his bruised wrist, will continue to hit. The offense will be better.
That leaves the pitching staff. Kevin Gausman could be that dominant starter who comes up and takes over for 15 to 20 starts. The stuff is there and it is nearing time for the Orioles to see what he can do over the course of a couple of months as a starting pitcher. It is time for them to see what they have and to see if he can impact the race. As an organization, they have done a good job of mapping out an innings plan as he has pitched more than five innings just once. When he becomes a rotation member, there will be few exceptions.
If Gausman lives up to the potential, he pushed Jimenez and Tillman into slots that are more appropriate for their respective talent levels. He also allows Buck Showalter to use either Miguel Gonzalez or Bud Norris in the bullpen. With only three relievers—Zach Britton, Darren O’Day, and Ryan Webb—producing anything close to an above average season, adding a former starter to the bullpen would provide the type of depth the Orioles need. While Gonzalez misses bats, he does have more value as a starting pitcher. Norris would be the best choice considering his limitations as a starting pitcher. Norris is pitching at an league average rate, but there is potential for an above average reliever as his strikeout rate should rise and he has shown good control thus far this season.
Moving Gausman into the rotation not only upgrades the rotation, but it makes the bullpen deeper and will decrease the need to acquire another reliever or two.
It will be a couple of more weeks until Kevin Gausman gets his rightful rotation spot. For now, the Orioles are holding close despite a bullpen that is quite suspect and a rotation that takes the ball, but doesn’t pitch many innings and doesn’t give much more than average results. They are in the race and actually project to be better. Adding Gausman can only help, even if he doesn’t immediately become an ace. But, if he does, the Orioles have a real chance.
For now, it’s about the money. In a couple of weeks or so, it will be about whether or not the Orioles’ best pitching prospect can hack it in the big leagues. The former is reality; the latter is how it should be. His time is coming.
Orioles Analyst
First and foremost, a Father. After that, I am a writer and teacher who not only started my own company and published an i-magazine as well as a newsletter, but have been published by USA Today, Operation Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Digest, Gotham Baseball Magazine, and numerous other publications. As an educator, I have 20 years of classroom experience and am utilizing that experience in my current position as department coordinator. Wrote the book The Teacher And The Admin (https://theteacherandtheadmin.com/the-book/) and operate that website which is dedicated to making education better for kids.