The 2020 NBA Playoffs tipped off on Monday from the bubble in Orlando, and it should come as no surprise that this edition feels unlike any other in the history of the league. First and foremost there’s the location factor, as accommodations forced upon the league by COVID-19 have eliminated home-court advantage. While the lack of travel is something that could benefit all 16 teams, the energy boost that can come from a home playoff game (especially for reserves) is no longer a factor. Also worth noting are the injuries, which were expected to play a role in how things went down in the bubble due to the fact that teams were off for nearly four months before the resumption of the season.
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Indiana has been without All-Star center Domantas Sabonis throughout its time in the bubble, Brooklyn arrived in Orlando with half of its original roster and other teams (most notably the 76ers, Magic and Trail Blazers) have lost key players as well. Add in the personal issues that some teams, including the Clippers, have had to navigate and this stands to be the most difficult championship that any team has won by the time we hit October. So instead of an asterisk, those who find it worthwhile to debate such things should be adding an exclamation point.
The East feels far more straightforward than the West, even with Orlando knocking off Milwaukee in Game 1 of its series. Brooklyn doesn’t have enough talent to deal with Toronto, especially with Joe Harris having to leave the bubble to deal with a family matter, Philadelphia looks lost without Ben Simmons, and Miami feels like a safe bet to at minimum grab a “gentleman’s sweep” at the expense of the Pacers. Indiana isn’t a bad team, even without Sabonis, but the Heat are cut from a different cloth especially defensively. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Jimmy Butler and co. ended up in the Eastern Conference Finals, either.
Going back to the 76ers, this offseason feels like one of major change even if they avoid being swept by the Celtics. Joel Embiid’s overall plus/minus has been brought by some as a reason why the team’s in an 0-3 hole, but he can only do so much when Philadelphia’s big offseason moves (re-signing Tobias Harris and signing Al Horford) haven’t panned out. Harris is 0-for-10 from three in the series thus far, and Horford has scored a total of 16 points. Signed in hopes that he would be the one to swing the balance of power from Boston to Philadelphia, Horford has certainly accomplished that but not in the way that Elton Brand and the 76ers brass hoped.
We know how these things work; when a team underachieves it’s easier to get rid of the coach than it is the players, and that will likely be the case in Philadelphia. Brett Brown could be better, and there are times when the coach best equipped to lead a team out of a major hole at the start of the rebuild isn’t the right guy to turn the squad into a title contender. But the front office failed in a big way, and the issues have been obvious in this series. Philadelphia lacks perimeter playmakers, and the 3-and-D wings meant to help in a series like this are either injured (Zhaire Smith) or can’t hit the broad side of a barn (Matisse Thybulle).
Speaking of Smith, how much do you think Philadelphia regrets making that draft day trade that sent a far more polished product in Mikal Bridges to Phoenix in exchange for a project in the former Texas Tech guard? With a lot of cap space tied up in Embiid, Simmons, Harris and Horford, Philadelphia will need a big draft in order to take the next step as soon as the 2020-21 campaign.
Flipping over to the West, so much was made about a battle of L.A. in the conference finals entering the bubble. But the sailing has been anything but smooth for either the Lakers or Clippers, who have each lost a game in their respective series. But health issues may ultimately be the reason why both teams escape their first round matchups with the Trail Blazers and Mavericks. Portland has lost Zach Collins for the remainder of the season with an ankle injury, moving Wenyen Gabriel into the starting lineup, and Damian Lillard is dealing with a dislocated finger on his left (non-shooting) hand.
Lillard isn’t going down without a fight, but the loss of Collins may be too much to overcome provided Anthony Davis consistently play with the aggression that he showed in Game 2. Jusuf Nurkic is the real deal, but Collins’ exit means that Portland will need to rely even more on Hassan Whiteside and he hasn’t been the same since moving to the bench. Add in the possible return of Rajon Rondo, who will give the Lakers a much-needed defensive boost on the perimeter, and the Lakers should have enough to take care of business. Oh, they have that LeBron James guy too. He’s pretty good.
The Clippers are still shorthanded due to Patrick Beverley’s calf injury, but his importance pales in comparison to Luka Doncic’s with the Mavericks. He suffered a sprained left ankle during Friday’s Game 3 loss, and even with Kristaps Porzingis playing extremely well and Tim Hardaway Jr. and Seth Curry both scoring 22 points not having their All-Star playmaker at full strength would be bad news for Dallas. Doncic can still be effective offensively, but it was painful to watch the Clippers seek him out in pick-and-rolls before he was mercifully removed from the game in the fourth quarter Friday night. Dallas can certainly pose problems for the Clippers moving forward, but the Doncic injury may be what ultimately does them in.
As for the other two series, Sunday feels like a huge day in the history of the Nuggets franchise. Yes not having Gary Harris and Will Barton has proven to be a huge deal given the lack of perimeter players capable of producing consistently on both ends, but the last two games have been brutal. Mike Malone’s team wasn’t competitive in either defeat, and while the coach tends to shoulder the blame as noted above it is the stars (Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray) who have to take on the responsibility of leading the way. I’m expecting both to play far better than they did in Friday’s Game 3, and Denver is going to need it given how well the Jazz are playing (especially with Mike Conley back in the mix).
And Oklahoma City is in serious trouble, even with the Rockets being without Russell Westbrook. Houston still has plenty of players capable of making Mike D’Antoni’s system work, and James Harden is among the best offensive players in league history. Add in the fact that they’re playing at a level defensively that we haven’t seen from the Rockets and quite some time, and not only are they the clear favorites in this series but they can at minimum push the Lakers in the second round as well. By then Westbrook could be back, and while he isn’t a great perimeter shooter the offensive aggression can open things up for Harden and Houston’s capable catch-and-shoot guys.
Two things I’m interested in seeing moving forward are how being in the bubble for over a month impacts teams on the brink of elimination, and the boost that advancing teams get once family members are allowed onto the campus after the first round. I’m not sure we see any team blatantly lie down, but it may not be all that difficult to decide that it’s time to go home if things get tough in an elimination game. Brooklyn and Philadelphia are first up in that regard.
As for the addition of family members that could be big, even though the environment won’t change. While teams have done all that they’re capable of doing to bring about a sense of normalcy, there’s no comparison to having loved ones present. It’s easy to assume that the players will have a singular focus of winning a championship, but they’re all human beings just like the rest of us.
BSL Analyst
Raphielle’s been writing about college sports for more than a decade, making the move to college basketball alone in 2013. Beginning his work with the former website CollegeHoops.net in 2003, Raphielle spent 3 years writing for NBCSports.com beginning 2013, covering CBB and the Olympics. In 2016, Raphielle joined Heavy.com. If there’s a game on, there’s a strong likelihood that he’s watching it.