May 2021 provided the Baltimore Orioles with one of the most memorable moments in franchise history and then it went downhill from there.
After John Means threw a no-hitter on May 5 against the Seattle Mariners, the Orioles went into a tailspin. You could’ve convinced anyone they made a deal with the devil to get the no-hitter, going 2-21 after, including a 14-game losing streak.
While some players obviously performed worse from April to May, that was hardly the case for everyone. Let’s look at some trends from April to May and figure out what they mean for the future of this team, both short-term and long-term.
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Trey Mancini is back
Given the circumstances, it was impossible to get frustrated that Trey Mancini needed some time to return to his 2019 form. Mancini finished April with a .742 OPS and endured an especially slow start that saw him struggle with a batting average under .200 through his first 18 games of the season. An April 26-29 series against the Yankees saw him go 6-for-14 with a double and a homer and he hasn’t cooled off since then.
Mancini finished May with an OPS that ranked ninth in baseball and only three people had more RBIs than him. As a nice bonus, he was also in the top 15 for on-base percentage last month. On top of that, he walked at a higher rate and struck out at a lower rate.
Trading Mancini feels like somewhat of a taboo topic for fans and it’s understandable. Moving a fan favorite who beat cancer is not exactly the best idea if you’re an organization that wants positive PR. However, Mancini is 29 and becomes a free agent in 2023, so that elephant is still in the room. Regardless of what happens, it seems clear that the May version of Trey Mancini is a better reflection of his talent than a slow start during his emotional return to baseball. The only question now is will Trey spend his next few years in Baltimore or somewhere else?
The dead fish is doomed
Watching Cesar Valdez get saves and generate swings and misses with his changeup made me wonder how he kept pulling it off. After all, his scouting report has to be one of the simplest in baseball: he throws a changeup almost 80 percent of the time and there’s a good chance it’ll be low and away to a righty and low and inside to a lefty.
Through the first month, Valdez’s predictably simple approach worked, much as it had at the end of 2020. In 11 games across 12.2 innings, Valdez held his opponents to a .548 OPS, posting a 1.42 ERA and going 6-for-8 on his saves.
Valdez then started May strong with a pair of three-out saves with two strikeouts where he retired the side in order. However, a trip to Queens to face the New York Mets is when things went downhill rapidly.
Tasked with protecting a one-run lead in Citi Field, Valdez allowed three singles as the Mets were able to get a walk-off victory. Valdez blew another save against the Minnesota Twins on May 24, where he faced four batters and only recorded one out as he allowed a pair of singles and a double before being pulled. In his final seven games of May, opponents have a .500/.515/.600 slash line across 33 plate appearances facing him.
With these struggles, Valdez has understandably been demoted in the bullpen, with Paul Fry assuming the closer role for now. When Hunter Harvey is healthy, I’d expect he’d also get chances to close or at least get the eighth inning with a lead.
The 36-year-old Valdez having his changeup-heavy approach eventually run out of success isn’t a long-term concern for the Orioles, but it has denied them a chance to trade him for prospects. I obviously don’t think Valdez was going to fetch a centerpiece of the rebuild but it would’ve been a nifty piece of business to turn a 36-year-old closer into a prospect or two. Ultimately, Valdez as the closer was a fun experiment but didn’t last long enough for the Orioles to convince a contender to send over a young lottery ticket.
Mountcastle is finding his footing but still needs some walks
Entering this season, Ryan Mountcastle was almost certainly the most important young player on the major league roster. A .878 OPS in 35 games last year, combined with a track record of minor league production, generated excitement to see what a full year in the majors would do for the 36th pick in the 2015 draft.
However, that excitement was quickly dampened with an April that saw a dreadful .515 OPS that ranked 158th out of 162 qualified hitters in April. While it was a concerning start, it felt inevitable his OPS wouldn’t remain that low and May felt like a better reflection of his real talent, with a .748 OPS.
After one homer in 91 at-bats in April, he left the yard four times across 86 at-bats last month, showing an encouraging boost in power. Using iso power, he went from a .088 figure that ranked 139th out of 162 hitters to a much stronger .209 iso power that sat 56th on a list of 152 hitters.
While Mountcastle’s batting average went up and he hit for more power, walks just simply aren’t a part of his game right now. Of the 152 qualified hitters last month, Mountcastle was one of just 12 who failed to walk in at least four percent of his plate appearances.
Mountcastle’s ability to walk will go a long way towards determining his ceiling as a hitter. May wasn’t a good sign and the remaining four months would be a lot more encouraging if the rookie can continue to provide a .200 iso power and increase how often he walks.
Santander hits the ground running returning from injury
When Anthony Santander left the game against the Miami Marlins on April 20th with an injury, it just added to what had been a frustrating April for him. After his first 62 PAs across 16 games, he was hitting below the Mendoza Line and had an OPS of .551.
Almost exactly a month later, he returned to the lineup on May 21 and wasted no time returning to a level of production that made him last year’s Most Valuable Oriole. He ended May with a .924 OPS, thanks to seven doubles and a homer. While the production was valuable, it wound up being wasted during a 14-game losing streak.
As for the future, Santander repeating his 2020 production would be very enticing in terms of making him a possible trade asset. The outfield is currently one of the deepest groups in the organization and that’s even before Yusniel Diaz has made his MLB debut. During the offseason, Santander was mentioned as a trade target for the Marlins and if he maintains his production, a lot of teams will be intrigued by a switch-hitting corner OF who can provide some real power.
While it might be devastating for his fans in the United Kingdom, the Santander we got in May could bring back a solid return and help the Orioles address areas of the team with less depth than the outfield.
BSL Analyst
Rose Katz is a recent graduate of the University of Maryland’s journalism school, where she worked for The Diamondback as the online managing editor and a sports blogger. As a student, she spent almost all of her time on campus in The Diamondback’s newsroom or at Xfinity Center, Ludwig Field and Maryland Stadium. Rose gained intern experience with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN).