There were a number of different things to take note of today, if you are an Oriole fan.
First, the unprotected Steven Johnson was selected by San Francisco in the Rule 5 draft.
I do not think Johnson is ready to regularly pitch in the Majors, and do believe the Giants will tire of hiding him in their bullpen during the course of the 2010 season. While he is not an uber prospect, he was the type of player that adds depth to a system.
Johnson, who turned 22 in August, had success in his combined 49 Double A innings this year with Chattanooga, and Bowie. Those innings came as a result of his production at High A ball to start the year. If Johnson had been part of the Orioles roster to start 2010, I think you would have seen him return to Bowie. After the first-half of this coming year, and another 100 Major League innings; you would have been looking at a guy capable of making a spot start for you if necessary.
Even if San Fran eventually offers Johnson back to Baltimore, I do not think the O’s had to lose him. I would have kept Johnson over Cla Meredith, Alberto Castillo, Dennis Sarfate, and probably over Luis Lebron and Armando Gabino.
Though MacPhail has stated otherwise tonight, I imagine they did not believe Johnson had a real chance of being grabbed. It is pretty easy to see what the O’s mindset was. Meredith, and Sarfate have shown they can help a Major League bullpen. Castillo, with Wilfrido Perez, is one of only two existing lefty bullpen options on the 40 man roster. (That is unless you count Troy Patton, whom I do no. I believe Patton will be back starting at Norfolk)
It also tells you that the O’s preferred the arm of Lebron, and valued Gabino’s 98 AAA innings for Minnesota this past-year. When we interviewed Dave Stockstill in August, he stated the following about Lebron, “Luis Lebron has come along very well since missing most of last season. He throws mid 90’s with a very good slider and change.”
So, while I would have protected Johnson, I feel pretty good about the logic the O’s used in not doing so. Ultimately, I think the odds are pretty good he again becomes part of the organization.
Switching gears to Pedro Feliz, I was pretty ecstatic at the news that he signed with Houston. I just was not looking forward to seeing Feliz in the Orange and Black. While a couple of options remain existing either as FA’s, or on the trade market, I still advocate Wigginton starting at 3rd on Opening Day. I would be happy giving Wigginton two-months, and promoting Bell to take over on June 1st.
If I had some disappointment with the loss of Johnson, my irritation of the day was the Braves trade of Rafael Soriano to Tampa for Pitcher Jesse Chavez. Chavez had a decent year for Pittsburgh, as he took the mound 73 different times. Looking at Major League and Minor League stats though, I would have to believe Jason Berken is held in slightly higher regard. I can not speak for Atlanta, and what they value, but I think Soriano was obtainable. With the O’s still interested in Closers, I tend to think the decision was that Baltimore decided they were not willing to obtain Soriano’s 1 year, $7M contract.
If you wanted a Closer, and you could have obtained the best one on the market for spare parts, I would have liked to have seen that acquisition made.
With Soriano no longer an option, The Baltimore Sun is reporting tonight that the O’s met with the agents for Jose Valverde, Kevin Gregg, and Fernando Rodney; with Rodney at the top of their wish list.
A lot of Oriole fans are not excited by a potential Rodney addition. My interest (and I believe MacPhail’s interest) will depend on the potential contract. Rodney turns 33 in March. I do not want to see anything close to a 3 year deal for him. If they can get him for 2 years, I have some interest. If they can get him for 1 year, I think it would be a good addition.
Besides the age of Rodney scaring me some, his 41 walks in 2009 (75.2 innings) also cause some alarm. I am probably most disturbed by his drastic home and road splits over the past 3 seasons.
That said, the complete dismissal of Rodney as an improvement is hard to understand. He is a legitimate power arm, that has achieved an 8.56 strikeout per 9 inning ratio. (K/9)
Some will acknowledge that, but point to how that number was lowered to 7.26 in 2009. (61 k’s in 75.2 innings). That is fair, but if you are going to make that point, you have to also acknowledge he had 10.93 K/9 ratio in 2008. Maybe you look at both as extremes, and believe his 2010 will be near his career norms?
Beyond the K’s, Rodney has limited opposing hitters to a .707 OPS against for his career. In the last 5 seasons (2005, 06, 07, 08, 09) Rodney’s OPS against has ranged from .606 to .731. For a solid period of time, he has limited hitters from getting on base, or for slugging for power against him. To be fair, it should be noted that in 2008 the OPS against was that .731, and it was .727 in 2009. That level could be a better representation of the pitcher he is today.
Another reason I would think Rodney could be a good addition for 1 season is his 1.08 Grounder to Flyball ratio for his career. In 2009, that ratio was 1.40. He did allow 8 homers this season, but he also has a history of keeping the ball in the park.
A lot of people believe you can hand any quality arm the ball, and that they will rack up saves and be a success. At some-level I agree with that. You can trot out most Major League arms and have no problem obtaining that save with the 3 run lead in Kansas City. If provided with the regular opportunity, saving 25-35 games is not really impressive. It is a arbitrary number on a baseball card that makes a reliever more expensive.
Where I disagree, is the idea that every quality arm has the mental ability to A) Deal with adversity after blowing a game, and B) Close out a game in venues like New York, and Boston under the glare of those crowds, and that environment.
If Rodney, or another closer is not obtained, I have advocated for months for Uehara to get the opportunity based off what he accomplished in Japan. However, if the O’s are not convinced of Uehara’s health, you can understand their desire to have a known quantity. Certainly Mickolio, and Hernandez would represent other existing arms talented enough to flourish in the role.
If the O’s do not add Rodney, they will be fine. If the O’s can add Rodney for the 2010 season, I do think they would be improved.
Millwood, Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, Guthrie
Rodney
Johnson
Mickolio
Albers / Meredith
Uehara
Berken
Hernandez
That would be a pitching staff with plenty of promise.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.