Audi 2021 MLS Cup Preview

Much of the soccer fan’s attention the last several months has been focused on the World Cup Qualifying for our region. And with good reason. Due to the pandemic the final qualifying round was reformatted and compressed into an 8 team round robin to occur over 6 months. Fourteen qualifying matches is a lot in a short amount of time with most of them occurring during a players respective club season. All that does it increase the risk of injuries and fitness issues. The good news is that it looks like most players have come through relatively healthy and fit.

So while the focus has been on WCQ a lot of very good soccer has been happening in the MLS leading up to the playoffs which begin this weekend. Before looking at the playoffs lets recap some of the big things that happened this season.

1. Hard to look past the historic season of the New England Revolution. The set a single season record for points accumulated with 73 in their 34 matches. There are many reasons that this team has really performed well but you can start with head coach Bruce Arena who has won more MLS Cups than any coach in history and he has won more Cups than any team in MLS history except for the LA Galaxy. Oh, and he coached the Galaxy for 3 of their 5 Cups!
2. The Colorado Rapids are surely one of the surprises of the season. Projected to be a playoff contender but nobody had them near the top of the conference. Well they weren’t near the top. The finished on top and that is a huge statement by coach Robin Fraser who has them playing above the collective sum of the parts.
3. The Seattle Sounders finished just a single point behind the Rapids and they were missing top attackers in Jordan Morris, Nico Lodeiro, and Ruidiaz. Ruidiaz and reported to be healthy and expected to start in the playoffs. Morris back and will be at least a super sub. Lodeiro is till up in the air. Any time a team finishes near the top missing the quality of play of guys like those means that have a lot of talent.
4. The Columbus Crew were coming off last season having won the MLS Cup and had the potential to be even better in 2021. Oops! Not only were they not near as good they fell clear down to 9th in the Eastern Conference and didn’t make the playoffs. Clearly a disappointing season in Columbus.
5. While Toronto FC was expected to take a bit of a step back this season predictions were that they would still be a legit playoff team. Well not so fast. They were simply awful and finished next to last in the East.
6. LAFC were among the preseason favorites to win it all in 2021. For several years they have been one of the top offensive teams in the league but sometimes a bit weak on defense. This year their offense fell off a fair bit and unfortunately their defense didn’t improve and they fell out of the playoffs resulting in a mutual decision between ownership and Bob Bradley for the coach to step down.

On to the playoffs! Lets take a look at the first round matchups and overall projections.

Eastern Conference

New England Revolution – Winning the conference a first round bye and home field throughout the playoffs. The Revs scored more goals than any other team and lead the league in goal differential. With Matt Turner in goal and hungry to prove he deserves the #1 jersey for the USMNT makes them the odds on favorite to win it all.

Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bull – Apparently the Union’s academy is really good. Really really good. Hard to imagine a team that loses 2 stars to European transfers in Brenden Aaronson and Mark McKenzie and doesn’t miss a beat. Finishing #2 gives them conference home field against any team not named the Revs. The Union’s best chance will be if keeper Andre Blake stand on his head and somebody steps up to provide some scoring besides Kacper Przybyiko. Now as to the Red Bull since September they have gone 7-4-1 amassing 25 points to rocket up the standings to finish in a playoff spot. Now the bad news for Red Bull fans is that during the last 3 months they have only scored more than 1 goal a mere 2 times. The Red Bulls defense may be slightly better than the Unions but Philly’s attack is just better. Nod goes to the Union. The next round is setting up for a terrific match if the Union and Nashville both win.

Nashville SC vs Orlando City – SC had the second best goal differential in the league. Orlando has allowed 7 more goals than any other team in the East that made the playoffs. SC scored more goals than Orlando. SC did not lose a single home match all season but Orlando did win 5 away matches. And City does have Nani and Daryl Dike. Coming in rested and in form can create trouble for defenses. They don’t play this one on paper but at the end of the day defense wins championships and SC has Walker Zimmerman, the reigning defender of the year centering the back line. At home Nashville should hold serve and move on the Philly. That would be a terrific match but one step at a time.

New York City vs Atlanta – When playing at their best no team in the league was better than NYC. They played terrific possession and were relentless in pressing their opponents. On the flip side they have some fall flat moments. Taty Castellanos is the leading scorer with 19 goals. Next best is Jesus Medina with 9. Taty has scored 6 goals in his last 4 matches so he is on an upswing. The problem for them may end up being that both Anton Kinnerholm and Keaton Parks are out for the playoffs and keeper Sean Johnson did not have his best year. For Atlanta, the top spending club, the issue has been that Josef Martinez, Ezequiel Barco, and Luiz Araujo have just not developed that needed chemistry. IF they find that chemistry in the playoffs they could win a match or two. But the telling stat for Atlanta is that they were only won 1 match out of 15 this season against teams that ended up in the playoffs. Expect NYC to win this won but then likely go home since they would have to go to New England.

Western Conference

Colorado Rapids – There is an interesting quote going around on Twitter (Steve Fenn) that I found quite interesting. He said that soccer is an O-ring competition where your best player usually doesn’t help you as much as your worst player hurts you. The point being for the rapids is that they are really deep. While their top players may not be among the league best their lesser players are still very good. AT this point in the season with tired legs and injuries depth can be a very good thing. Being at home for the playoffs is a bid advantage for them. The weather and altitude can prove tough for opponents. And they only lost at home once all season.

Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake – As already stated, the Sounders only finished 1 point behind Colorado and they have gotten some key players back. But the form for Ruidiaz and Morris is a question mark going into the weekend. IF they can produce look out for them as they already have the best defense in the conference. RSL come in on a real roller coaster with wins over San Jose, Colorado and Sporting KC. But losses to already eliminated Chicago Fire, San Jose, and a total thumping at Portland (6-1). So which Real team shows up? The key stat for this one is that RSL has the second worst xG allowed in transition in the league, That is a tough chore when facing the Sounders. Seattle should move on and host Sporting KC.

Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps – The changing from Marc Dos Santos to Vanni Sartini was a needed and effective move. Sartini really improved the Caps transition play and has the on a roll and they have one of the hottest strikers in the league right now in Brian White (many want to see him called into the next USMNT camp). Their problem is they are just so-so in the back. Sporting can score from all over the pitch and has done so all season mostly missing striker Alan Pulido. But Pulido is back and can certainly come off the bench and boost an attack. And all they need to do is draw because if they get to penalties they win. Keeper Tim Melia is just unbeatable in shots from the mark. Look for KC to advance and their best shot at a second win is to hope RSL shocks Seattle.

Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC – The Timbers are reach in playoff experience and have a lot of scoring abilities in their front 6 players making them very difficult to defend. And they get to play at home which is always a boost come playoff time. On the defensive front they have been less than good allowing the second most goals of a playoff team. Even worst their xGs allowed was the WORST in the league. That is not how you win in the playoffs. Then there are the Loons. The only team in the playoffs with a negative goal differential. But at their other end of the field they do have Emanuel Reynoso and he is capable of putting a team on his shoulders and winning it all himself. So who wins this one? Flip a coin but in the end having the playoff experience and being at home gives the nod to Portland. Just don’t bet your house on this!

Ok, prediction time. There are a number of teams that have the talent, coaching, and experience to win it all. And the favorite, the New England Revolution, have a bid target on their back. No team that has won the Supporter’s Shield has gone on to win the MLS Cup.

In the end I think the Revolution are strong, extremely well coached, and play at home. Playing at home for the final in likely horrid weather also boosts their chances. But the key difference maker? Matt Turner is on a mission to earn the #1 jersey for the USMNT and all eyes will be on him. Look for him to shine.