Bradfield Jr. is expected to offer the Orioles excellent fielding and speed from day one, but also comes with offensive question marks. MLB.com lists him as having a 50-grade hit tool paired with a 35-grade power tool, and he has hit just seven homers across 209 career minor league games.

So, what are some of the possible outcomes for someone with Bradfield Jr.’s projected skillset? Let’s dig in.

The 99th percentile, best-case outcome: Kenny Lofton

A six-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glover, it’d be quite the success story if Bradfield Jr. turns his speed and fielding into a career like Kenny Lofton’s.

Lofton was one of the best base-stealers in the sport’s history, finishing 15th all-time in stolen bases and leading the American League in stolen bases on five separate occasions. His volume of stolen bases was also helped by his on-base percentage, producing four different seasons with an OBP above .400 and another three seasons with at least a .370 OBP.

Defensive WAR from Baseball-Reference also rated his fielding highly, with Lofton having four seasons with a dWAR of at least 2.0. Across Lofton’s 17-year career, the only times he was worth negative dWAR came in the final two years of his career.

Lofton also offered some respectable pop for someone with his speed, providing four different seasons with an isolated power above .120 in at least 400 plate appearances while stealing 40+ bases as a center fielder. The only two center fielders to do this more than four times were Cesar Cedeno and some fella named Ty Cobb.

Lofton but with less power: Juan Pierre

With seven homers in 209 minor league games, Bradfield Jr. reaching Lofton’s power production would be pretty impressive, so let’s look at someone who offers contact and speed without much pop.

Juan Pierre had six seasons with an average above .300, clearing 200 hits in a season four times and only ending the year with an average below .275 once.

Pierre was also a nuisance once he got on-base, clearing 60 stolen bases in three seasons and averaging 43.9 steals per season. However, he was a bit reckless on the bases and was constantly among the league leaders for being caught stealing.

Pierre also hit just 18 homers in 14 seasons and failed to hit a homer in three separate seasons. He did manage to record double-digit triples four different times, but that hardly did enough to give him a respectable slugging percentage.

If Bradfield Jr. ends up with a career similar to Pierre, he’d still have plenty of seasons with a positive WAR, but there’s still quite a gap between Pierre’s best years and Lofton’s.

(Bob Phelan suggested Michael Bourn, who is also a good example of someone in the Lofton and Pierre mold from the 2000’s and 2010’s.)

The reigning AL Gold Glove winner in Center: Ceddanne Rafaela

Lofton and Pierre are definitely good comparisons for Bradfield Jr., but we should also take a look at some more modern players. Why not start with the reigning Gold Glove winner in the AL?

Ceddanne Rafaela was a quite deserving winner of the Gold Glove in the AL, thanks to being in the 99th percentile for outs above average on Baseball Savant. Unsurprisingly, Rafaela’s range also meant he was a speedy runner with a 92nd percentile sprint speed. Interestingly enough, Rafaela’s baserunning speed didn’t really translate to stealing bases: he had only 20 steals in 25 attempts.

However, Rafaela does start to differ from Bradfield Jr. once we look at the offensive profile. Rafaela was given 50-grade power as a prospect by MLB.com and hit 16 homers in 156 games last year.

Rafaela’s fielding, speed and adequate amount of power led to a 4.7 bWAR last year, which ranked 28th among all position players and was fourth for center fielders.

Bradfield Jr. finding enough power to ever hit double-digit homers in the majors seems like a tall task, but if he can pull it off, he could be a top-five center fielder in the sport.

The worst-case scenario on offense that’s still a net positive: Billy Hamilton

From 2015-2017, Billy Hamilton had a slashline of .245/.298/.324, producing a .622 OPS and a 66 OPS+ while still averaging 2.3 bWAR per 162 games during that span.

Hamilton averaged 75.8 steals per 162 games during across those three seasons, a pretty remarkable amount for someone who didn’t even reach base in 30 percent of his PAs during that three-year period.

As you would expect, Hamilton’s speed also translated to excellent range in center. In 2016 he was in the 100th percentile for outs above average and the 97th percentile in 2017. (Baseball Savant doesn’t have fielding data for 2015.)

You’d hope Bradfield Jr.’s average and OBP aren’t that terrible, but Hamilton proves that 70 steals per season with elite defense is still someone worthy of a starting spot.

The post Finding Comparisons For Enrique Bradfield Jr appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Baz isn’t exactly a no-brainer, slam dunk addition to the pitching staff like 2024’s Corbin Burnes deal, but it’s still a promising move. He offers drastic home/road splits that should be solved with a new home park, was acquired with prospects who the Orioles can afford to lose and he has three years of control.

Let’s start with the home/road splits.

In 2025, the Rays found themselves unable to use Tropicana Field due to hurricane damage and instead played at George M. Steinbrenner Field, a venue typically used for Spring Training and the minors.

This was not an arrangement that benefitted Baz.

In 16 starts across 82.1 innings, Baz allowed a 5.90 ERA at home, thanks in large part to a 1.97 HR/9. Among 56 pitchers with at least 80 innings at home, Baz’s 1.97 HR/9 was the second-highest figure, trailing only Baltimore’s very own Tomoyuki Sugano.

Meanwhile, Baz on the road came much closer to being a normal starter. His ERA dropped to 3.86 and his HR/9 was a reasonable 0.86.

Baz’s total ERA wound up being 4.87, resulting in a home ERA over a run higher than his total ERA. The only other pitcher with at least 80 innings at home to do that in 2025 was the Athletics’ Luis Severino, who also found himself pitching in a venue not built for the majors.

Unsurprisingly, batted ball data from Baseball Savant says that Baz was quite an unlucky pitcher at Steinbrenner Field.

Baz allowed a .489 slugging percentage at home, but Baseball Savant’s expected slugging percentage thinks he should have allowed a .398 SLG, a difference of 91 points. Baz was one of 44 pitchers to have at least 350 opposing plate appearances at home and he had the widest gap between his actual and expected slugging percentage among those 44.

Baseball Savant’s batted ball data further illustrates Baz’s tough time at home thanks to its feature that calculates if a home run would have been gone in the other 29 parks. On August 19, Baz allowed a 322-foot homer that would’ve been gone in just two of 30 parks. Meanwhile, a July 21 ball hit into the right-center gap was only going to be a homer at Steinbrenner Field.

Baz on the road wasn’t exactly 1968 Bob Gibson, but it seems likely that a normal home stadium will do wonders for him.

As for the prospects, any analysis should begin with the big names who stayed put: Dylan Beavers and Coby Mayo.

The offseason additions of Taylor Ward and Pete Alonso have created some playing time uncertainty for Beavers and Mayo, which would seemingly increase their chances of getting traded.

If Beavers and/or Mayo are being actively shopped, then it’s a great sign for the rest of the offseason that the Orioles managed to pick up a pitcher without using either player.

Trading Beavers and/or Mayo would come with the risk of moving on from a player(s) who could meaningfully help the 2026 Orioles. The good news is none of the players actually in this trade should carry that same risk.

High school outfielder Slater de Brun, the #37 overall pick in the 2025 draft and highest-ranked prospect moved in the deal according to MLB.com, didn’t even get to see any playing time at low-A Delmarva prior to being sent to the Rays.

Meanwhile, catcher Caden Bodine, MLB.com’s second-best prospect moved in this deal, appeared in a grand total of 11 games with the Shorebirds in 2025 after being drafted.

Starting pitcher Michael Forret and outfielder Austin Overn were both at least able to end 2025 with double-A Chesapeake, but the duo also spent the majority of the year at high-A Aberdeen.

Baltimore also gave the Rays the #33 overall pick in the upcoming draft, another player who won’t even appear in his first professional game until late August or September.

It’s entirely possible that the prospects and future draft pick in this deal become useful major leaguers for Tampa Bay in the future, but Baz, and possibly Beavers and/or Mayo, should be useful major leaguers for the Orioles in 2026.

If Baz is indeed a useful major leaguer, it’s especially good news because the Orioles will have him for three years. Baz should be an Oriole through 2028, a nice bit of stability for a rotation that will currently see Trevor Rogers hit free agency after this year, while Dean Kremer is on track to leave after 2027.

Baz seems like a safe bet to improve in 2026, but if the Orioles really want an impressive rotation, then Baz has to be the second-best starter they add.

The post Breaking Down The Shane Baz Trade appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Ward sure does offer a similar profile to Tyler O’Neill

When the Orioles signed Tyler O’Neill last offseason, they added a right-handed hitting corner outfielder who offered good power and discipline with a tendency to strike out a lot and a batting average that wasn’t exactly prime Tony Gwynn.

Now, the Orioles find themselves with a second player who checks those boxes.

In 2024, when O’Neill had enough at-bats to qualify for Baseball Savant’s percentiles, he was in the 65th percentile for chase rate and the 87th percentile for walk rate. In comparison, last year saw Ward in the 92nd percentile for chase rate and the 82nd percentile for walk rate.

Meanwhile, 2024 saw O’Neill in the fifth percentile for whiff rate and the second percentile for strikeout rate. As for Ward, his 2025 whiff rate was actually an above-average figure in the 55th percentile, but that didn’t stop him from having a 16th percentile strikeout rate.

O’Neill and Ward are also similar batters when it comes to their platoon splits. In 2024, O’Neill enjoyed a spectacular 1.179 OPS when facing lefties paired with a significantly worse .693 figure facing righties. Ward’s 2025 splits weren’t as extreme, but were still notable: .918 against lefties and .765 versus righties.

Of course, there is one mighty significant stat where O’Neill and Ward differ: games played.

In both 2024 and 2025, Ward appeared in over 150 games for the Angels, while O’Neill appeared in 113 games in 2024 and just 54 games in 2025.

Perhaps the front office was simply looking for a version of O’Neill they can count on playing a full season.

The outfield is getting a little crowded

As of right now, there isn’t a particularly obvious answer for how the Orioles will balance Ward with the other outfielders.

Prior to this deal, the Opening Day outfield looked like it would be Dylan Beavers and O’Neill in the corners with Colton Cowser playing center.

The Orioles called up Beavers with the hope of him winning Rookie of the Year next year, so it’s hard to picture them doing that and then trading him a few months later. Meanwhile, O’Neill’s

injury history and 16.5 million dollar price tag doesn’t make him seem like a particularly desirable option for anyone to acquire.

Using O’Neill and Beavers in a platoon feels like one of the more plausible outcomes right now, but it’d also require the front office to swallow their pride and admit they made a significant three-year commitment for a bench bat.

Of course, the designated hitter spot also exists, but it currently seems like that will be used for keeping Samuel Basallo and Adley Rutschman both in the lineup.

Ward does offer a wild card that Beavers, Cowser and O’Neill lack: 46 career games as a third baseman.

During Ward’s 2018 rookie campaign, he appeared in 40 games as a third baseman. Ward has only been a third baseman six times since then, but it is a wrinkle that could be relevant to how the Orioles use him. If we really want to have fun speculating, Ward could even get moved back to the infield after the Orioles use Jackson Holliday or Jordan Westburg in a major trade.

Moving on from Rodriguez makes sense, especially for this front office

While I was certainly surprised to see Rodriguez traded, it feels pretty reasonable that the front office was ready to make his health concerns someone else’s problem.

Rodriguez had last appeared for the Orioles on July 31, 2024, meaning it had been one year and two months since his last start. The consensus among the fanbase was that counting on any production from Rodriguez in 2026 would be incredibly risky and it seems the front office felt the same way.

Just about any front office would’ve been skeptical of Rodriguez at this point, but especially a front office that has repeatedly demonstrated it doesn’t think highly of taking pitchers early in the draft.

The Elias front office inherited Rodriguez from Dan Duquette’s 2018 draft, where Rodriguez was selected out of high school with the 11th overall pick. I highly doubt Elias was eager to get rid of Rodriguez from day one, but it does seem pretty reasonable to speculate that they valued Rodriguez lower than other front offices would’ve viewed a top-15 draft pick who became a consensus top-10 prospect.

The idea that the Elias front office isn’t particularly attached to pitching prospects inherited from the previous regime is also backed up by previously trading DL Hall (and Joey Ortiz) for Corbin Burnes.

The post Three Takeaways From The Rodriguez Ward Trade appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Samuel Basallo, the team’s top prospect, became the first Oriole promoted by Elias to make a commitment to the team’s future by signing an extension for eight years and 67 million dollars.

Basallo’s extension would be great news regardless of the cost, but it’s an especially welcome development for the team’s future when you put his contract in context.

As of today, Basallo will only have the eighth-highest average annual value among catchers, with a figure that rounds out to 8.4 million dollars per year. Basallo’s yearly money is almost a third of J.T. Realmuto’s contract and nearly half of what Cal Raleigh gets per year.

Basallo’s total money is also outside the top five for catchers. His contract is worth less than the deals for Realmuto and Raleigh, as well as Will Smith, Salvador Perez and Sean Murphy.

Among all position players, Basallo’s contract ranks 68th in total money, making slightly more than Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez while making just a smidge less than Ke’Bryan Hayes and Ryan McMahon.

Meanwhile, Basallo’s contract also looks quite favorable compared to other recent extensions signed by players in their early 20s or younger.

Basallo’s total value and AAV is significantly lower than the mega deals signed by players like Fernando Tatis Jr. in 2021 and Bobby Witt Jr. during last February, as well as more modestly priced extensions like Jackson Chourio’s agreement with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2023.

For another way to put Basallo’s deal in context: his AAV as an Oriole will be lower than what Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Kittredge, Charlie Morton and Kyle Gibson (the first time) got from their short-term deals. Basallo’s AAV is also less than a million dollars more than what Adam Frazier got.

If Basallo comes anywhere close to his potential, his deal with be an absolute bargain, especially relative to his position and when he was signed.

The value the Orioles could potentially get from Basallo’s deal is wonderful, but only if they’re able to really take advantage of it by making other major financial commitments.

The most obvious candidate for such an offer is Gunnar Henderson.

Henderson is quite notably represented by Scott Boras, an agent with a reputation for clients who very rarely take extensions before reaching free agency. It seems quite likely Henderson will spend three more seasons in Baltimore before hitting the open market. Trying to make

Henderson an Oriole for life will certainly take a lot of financial muscle, but it’s not as if Basallo’s contract should serve as any sort of obstacle towards keeping Henderson.

Even if Henderson takes a jaw-dropping offer from someone like the Los Angeles Dodgers or New York Mets, the principle remains the same for any other member of the team’s core they’d like to keep for longer than six years. No one is expecting the Orioles to retain every member of their core, but you’d certainly hope someone besides Basallo is interested in staying in Baltimore.

This thought process also applies for looking at external additions to the pitching staff. The Orioles have quite notably avoided any real commitments for free agent starting pitching, failing to sign anyone to a multi-year deal in the Elias era. If there’s a solid free agent pitcher looking for something like three years and 60 million dollars, then Basallo’s money also shouldn’t make a difference there.

The excellent value of Basallo’s deal is also intriguing for how much, or how little, it’ll serve as a data point for how the team approaches negotiations with other members of the core in a different situation than Basallo. Offering about eight million dollars per year for a top prospect until they turn 30 is a smart, low-risk move, but it’s also an entirely different animal from what they’d need to do keep Henderson as a free agent.

I’m not here to make an estimate on Henderson’s contract demands, but I am quite confident it will include an AAV above eight million dollars and a length that will pay him into at least his mid-30s. Just about any front office and owner worth a damn would make this kind of offer to Basallo, but many fewer would be willing to undertake the cost and risk that comes the kind of deal Henderson is likely to get.

The Basallo extension is a very welcome first step for the Orioles demonstrating they’re serious about making commitments to the team’s future. However, a long-term deal with Basallo certainly loses its luster if the Orioles stick to their conservative spending elsewhere.

Perhaps they won’t be able to afford Henderson, but they still need to show us something beyond Basallo for this extension to really become meaningful.

The post Orioles Must Build On Basallo’s Extension appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

However, the Orioles can still attempt to get something out of this season by aggressively giving opportunities to some of their top young players to see what they can offer to next year’s team.

The first player who should see way more playing time is already on the roster.

Coby Mayo has been on the major league roster since May 31, but hasn’t exactly had the kind of stable playing time that’d benefit a young hitter.

Just in the month of July, Mayo has had three separate instances where he went three straight games without a plate appearance. He has also had six games where he came off the bench to hit. The Orioles have played 53 games since May 31 and Mayo has been in the starting lineup just 27 times, or 50.9 percent of the team’s games.

Even with especially erratic playing time in July, Mayo has still shown signs of starting to put it together. He ended the month with an .878 OPS that included his first career homer off someone that wasn’t a position player. Mayo also had more walks than strikeouts, an especially encouraging sign for someone not exactly known as a contact hitter.

Ryan O’Hearn being traded while Ryan Mountcastle will be shortly returning from an injury does mean that Mayo will still be competing with a veteran first baseman for playing time. However, there’s still no excuse for Mayo to only start half of the team’s games in the final two months of this season.

Samuel Basallo should also be given every opportunity to begin his major league career in a low-stakes environment.

I’m pretty confident the Orioles were planning to call up Basallo the exact moment he’d still be eligible for the 2026 Rookie of the Year regardless of how this season went, but the lower stakes environment should give Basallo a longer leash as both a hitter and a catcher.

It’s pretty reasonable to envision a scenario where Basallo, like many other prospects, doesn’t exactly hit the ground running once he’s called up. If Basallo were to struggle in the final month of a playoff chase, the Orioles would’ve found themselves in a tricky situation of trying to balance Basallo’s playing time with their goal of making the postseason.

However, that won’t be the case this year. Unless Basallo strikes out 50 percent of the time and allows three passed balls per game, he should be appearing regularly, while keeping him under the threshold for rookie eligibility for 2026.

Basallo debuting in a low stakes environment is a privilege that hasn’t been afforded to any major prospect since Adley Rutschman and the Orioles should use that to their advantage as much as possible.

The opportunity to let younger players figure it out without the pressure of making the playoffs also might be more valuable for players without the pedigree of Basallo or Mayo.

Namely, Dylan Beavers.

Beavers, taken with the 33rd overall pick in the 2022 draft, has enjoyed a breakthrough campaign in his third full season in the minors. He has produced a .916 OPS in AAA and has done so while improving both his walk rate and strikeout rate compared to his 2024 season spent mainly in AA. The former Cal Golden Bear’s production is also very encouraging for his age. Beavers is just 23 and has the fourth-best OPS among AAA batters 23 or younger with at least 250 PAs at that level.

The Orioles were almost certainly going to give Basallo and Mayo playing time this season regardless of their record, but it’s hard to believe the same would be true for Beavers. If the Orioles were contenders for a playoff spot at the deadline, it’s pretty unlikely that Beavers would’ve seen any real chance at major league playing time in Baltimore. In fact, a .900 OPS AAA outfielder would’ve been a perfect trade chip if this team was buying.

As it stands, Beavers remains in the minors, with Jordyn Adams earning a call-up. Adams has produced a .565 OPS in AAA this year, which is a whopping 351 points worse than Beavers. Unless Beavers is nursing an injury, it’s hard to believe there’s any argument for promoting Adams that isn’t remarkably flimsy.

The Orioles have no excuses for once again finding themselves in a situation where winning games feels less important than trying to develop young talent. However, the least they can do is ensure they’ll give every chance to Mayo, Basallo and Beavers to enjoy two months of development without the pressure of a pennant chase.

The post Trade Deadline Creates New Opportunity For Young Players appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

So, let’s explore some of the big questions about this year’s deadline for the Orioles.

Who wants Ryan O’Hearn?

There’s a very good chance O’Hearn will be one of the best hitters moved this deadline, so it seems fair to say that virtually every contending team will take an interest in him.

However if we want to really be specific, let’s look at some contenders who haven’t gotten much offense from their first basemen and/or their designated hitters.

The first candidate for O’Hearn would be the Houston Astros. The current leaders of the American League West have gotten a .646 OPS from their first basemen, while their designated hitters have provided a similarly weak .621 OPS.

Houston has dealt with both an underwhelming season from Christian Walker and an injury to Yordan Alvarez, creating the perfect storm to find themselves needing someone like O’Hearn.

Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres could desperately use an upgrade at DH.

The DH spot in San Diego’s lineup has produced an OPS of just .542, a figure that quite remarkably isn’t even the worst OPS for DHs in baseball.

While Houston and San Diego jump out to me as the two contenders who could most desperately use O’Hearn, an .853 OPS would be a welcome addition to any lineup in the majors.

Who wants Cedric Mullins?

After ending April with a .927 OPS, Mullins has significantly cooled down, posting a .547 OPS since May 1.

While Mullins’ underwhelming May and June might have reduced some of his trade value, it still seems pretty likely he’ll be a desirable target at the deadline.

The first potential suitor for Mullins comes from the team with the league’s worst offense from their center fielders: the Cleveland Guardians.

Cleveland’s CFs have had a .516 OPS this year, a figure that is more than 150 points lower than the league average at the position.

The Guardians currently sit at 40-42 and are 2.5 games out of a playoff spot, so it’s hardly a guarantee they’ll be buyers.

If Cleveland decides against going shopping for a center fielder, then Mullins might find himself taking a short road trip to New York or Philadelphia.

The Mets and Phillies are both comfortably in playoff spots right now and also find themselves with underwhelming situations in center.

The Mets rank 20th in OPS from their CFs, while the Phillies sit in 23rd place for their production in center.

Who else is selling, besides the obvious candidates?

I can tell you right now with a very high degree of confidence that teams like the Colorado Rockies, Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates and the Athletics will be sellers at the deadline.

However, there’s also plenty of teams who aren’t obvious sellers today, but could become ones as we approach the end of July.

The aforementioned Guardians, as well as five other teams, find themselves within three games of .500, a no man’s land that could make them buyers or sellers depending on how July plays out.

The Diamondbacks particularly feel like a team worth monitoring to see if they end up being sellers. If Arizona is ready to punt on this season, Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez on the market could potentially drive down price for Ryan O’Hearn.

The Diamondbacks also seem like the most likely seller among these six teams because they find themselves five games out of a playoff spot, while none of the AL teams are more than three games out.

Is anyone with control for next year moving?

The Orioles trading players like Mullins, O’Hearn, Zach Eflin or Tomoyuki Sugano should be entirely uncontroversial, as all of them will become free agents after this season.

However, the Orioles potentially moving someone still under team control for at least 2026 is when things could get interesting.

For example, 2.5 years of control for Felix Bautista could be an enticing trade chip to many teams and could bring back a better return than half a season of someone like O’Hearn. However, that kind of move would still mean the Orioles would need to find a new closer for 2026 and 2027. It’s also hardly a guarantee that Bautista’s hypothetical return would include players ready to make a meaningful impact on the 2026 and 2027 teams.

If the Orioles stick to trading rentals, it’d signal that the front office views this season as an unfortunate fluke that can be fixed next year. However, moving anyone with control for next year’s team would indicate the front office believes this roster needs a bigger reset and the implications that come with that.

The post A Month Away From The Trade Deadline appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

If I had to place money on who they hire, I’d wager on another assistant coach from a winning franchise. Hyde was hired after being an assistant with the successful Chicago Cubs teams of the 2010s and it seems pretty likely they’ll go down that path again.

However, maybe Hyde’s underwhelming ending to his Orioles tenure will make the team’s leadership explore candidates who have already been a manager.

I haven’t spent every day in the Orioles clubhouse and neither has any fan reading this, but it hardly seems like a wild assumption to think some of the team’s issues could’ve been better addressed by someone with more managerial experience than Hyde.

So, if the Orioles do opt for a veteran manager over an inexperienced assistant, these are four candidates I’d expect them to explore.

Joe Maddon, age 71

Perhaps the Orioles would consider replacing Hyde with his old boss from Chicago.

Joe Maddon’s resume is pretty well-known to most baseball fans, but just as a refresher: he won the 2008 American League pennant with the Tampa Bay Rays and ended a 108-year curse by winning the 2016 World Series with the Cubs.

However, Maddon’s success with the Rays and Cubs didn’t translate to his most recent job. He took over the Los Angeles Angels in 2020 and produced an underwhelming record of 130-148 before being fired mid-season in 2022.

While Maddon’s resume is certainly excellent, the fact that he hasn’t taken a job since his 2022 firing could indicate that he’s either unofficially retired from managing or he just isn’t viewed as an appealing candidate to be a manager by today’s front offices.

Of course, there’s also a chance that neither of these are true. It’s quite possible that there simply just hasn’t been the right combination of an opening Maddon wants and a front office that wants to work with him. Maybe the Orioles could check those boxes.

David Ross, age 48

I promise this list won’t consist entirely of people who know Hyde from the 2016 Cubs, but David Ross is another currently unemployed big name worth mentioning.

A 15-year veteran catcher who won the 2013 and 2016 World Series, Ross replaced Maddon as Chicago’s manager entering the 2020 season. Ross was never able to fully find his footing at

Wrigley Field, posting a 262-284 record with the Cubs before being replaced with Craig Counsell after the 2023 season.

Ross’ first tenure as a manager wasn’t great, but it’s still far too early to completely write him off as a manager after just four years and before even turning 50. Ross was a well-respected veteran as a player with championship experience, and that might be the exact type of voice the Orioles could use in their clubhouse next year.

Scott Servais, age 57

While it’s not quite the same as Maddon ending the Cubs’ 108-year World Series drought, Scott Servais still managed to snap a 20-year postseason drought for the Seattle Mariners in 2022.

Servais’ Mariners then won their Wild Card series against the Toronto Blue Jays, pulling off a remarkable comeback in game two to advance to the ALDS. The Mariners were eventually eliminated by the Houston Astros in a three-game sweep that saw them lose game one on a walkoff homer and game three in 18 innings.

Servais also had several near-misses for making the postseason with Seattle, missing the playoffs with at least 88 wins during three different seasons between 2018 and 2023.

Meanwhile, the bad news for Servais is he spent last season in a similar position to Hyde: seeing his team fade down the stretch. On June 18, his Mariners led the AL West by 10 games with a 44-31 record. Unfortunately for him, the Mariners began running out of steam after that and Servais was fired when Seattle fell to 64-64 on August 21.

It’s quite reasonable that Orioles fans would balk at hiring another manager who had a rough end to the 2024 season, but Servais still has a pretty respectable resume in my book.

Gabe Kapler, age 49

Gabe Kapler has a bit of a fascinating resume as a manager.

In 2021, Kapler oversaw a 107-55 season with the San Francisco Giants, as they became just the 17th team in baseball history to win at least 107 games in a season. However, San Francisco’s 107 wins didn’t even amount to winning a playoff series, as the Giants lost to a Los Angeles Dodgers team that won 106 games.

That season is currently a massive outlier for Kapler, whose other five seasons as a manager haven’t even seen him lead a team to a winning record.

107-win seasons aren’t usually something that can happen from a lucky fluke, and the Orioles would be hoping he can repeat that kind of season if he gets the job.

The post Looking At Experienced Managerial Candidates appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

However, if I told you the Orioles would also be 11-17 due to underwhelming starts from several of their younger hitters, I’d imagine that’d be a bit more shocking to learn.

While veterans like Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn have enjoyed a productive April, the same can’t be said for other players with less experience.

So, what have the younger players been doing right and wrong so far this year? Let’s find some good news and bad news for the offensive approaches of the Orioles’ younger players.

Jackson Holliday

Good news: An excellent chase rate

While Jackson Holliday’s BB% is slightly below-average at the 45th percentile, it’s not for a lack of trying. Holliday’s chase rate is in the 91st percentile, demonstrating an excellent ability to understand the strike zone. Holliday has swung at just 19.2 percent of his pitches outside the zone, a figure that ranks second on the Orioles and 16th in baseball among batters with at least 75 plate appearances.

Bad news: The batted-ball data isn’t blowing anyone away

Holliday having a good grasp of the zone is an encouraging sign, but it’d go much further if he had better numbers when he does decide to swing. Holliday’s average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are all sitting below the 50th percentile. His hard-hit percentage is in the 44th percentile and his exit velocity is in the 42nd percentile, so it’s still possible that a couple scorched line drives could improve those figures in the small sample of April.

Gunnar Henderson

Good news: The exit velocity and hard-hit rate are some of the best in baseball

Gunnar Henderson has been absolutely smoking the ball to start this year. He has a 95.6 MPH average exit velocity and a 57.9 percent hard-hit rate that are both better figures than what he provided during last year’s excellent season. His average exit velocity is in the 99th percentile, while his hard-hit rate is in the 95th percentile. Henderson only trails Oneil Cruz for average exit velocity among those with at least 75 PAs.

Bad news: The walks are down, the strikeouts are up

Hitting the ball hard is never a bad thing but it does lose some of its impact if you’re below the 20th percentile for both your walk rate and strikeout rate. Henderson’s strikeout rate in prior seasons never resembled prime Tony Gywnn, but this season has still been the highest K% of his career at 28.9 percent. Meanwhile, the dropoff in walks is far more concerning. Last year Henderson had a BB% of 10.8 percent that ranked in the 80th percentile and this year that figure has dipped down to 5.6 percent, placing him in the 21st percentile.

Adley Rutschman

Good news: He’s waiting for his pitch and consistently making contact when he sees it

Adley Rutschman is currently enjoying the best chase rate of his career, swinging at only 18.5 percent of pitches outside the zone, good for a 96th percentile chase rate. His strong eye is paired with an excellent ability to avoid swinging-and-missing, with a whiff rate that’s in the 94th percentile. Laying off balls and putting strikes in play is always going to be a one-two punch you want to see in a hitter and Rutschman has been doing an excellent job at both of those.

Bad news: The hard-hit rate could use some work

Quite frankly, Rutschman’s Baseball Savant page has the fewest concerns of the Orioles’ hitting core. His expected batting average and expected slugging percentage both say he’s had some bad luck with getting well-hit balls to turn into hits, and he seems due to get some breaks sooner or later. With that being said, Rutschman’s hard-hit rate is still in the 25th percentile. Hard-hit rate has always been a weak spot for Rutschman’s advanced stats, with the figure never ranking higher than the 35th percentile in his career.

Heston Kjerstad

Good news: He’s regularly elevating the ball

When Heston Kjerstad puts the ball in play, there’s an awfully good chance it’ll be in the air. His groundball percentage is 35.4 percent, a figure that ranks in the top 50 among those with at least 75 PAs this year. Kjerstad’s GB% is also second on the Orioles, trailing only Cedric Mullins. Kjerstad’s ability to regular keep the ball in the air has led to an 84th percentile barrel rate.

Bad news: He’s chasing and whiffing far too much

Kjerstad’s combination of swinging at balls and swinging-and-missing makes it awfully hard for him to put together good at-bats. Kjerstad’s chase rate is in the 12th percentile, while his whiff rate is slightly improved in the 16th percentile. Unsurprisingly, Kjerstad’s chase rate has led to a walk rate that ranks 216th out of 217 batters with at least 75 PAs.

The post Finding Good and Bad News With The Orioles Young Hitters appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

There are several avenues Maryland could pursue to replace Willard, so let’s take a look at three types of coaches they could hire: power conference coaches, coaches with local ties and mid-major coaches.  

POWER CONFERENCE COACHES 

Buzz Williams, Texas A&M 

Pros: Williams has been coaching at power conference schools for over a decade and has made it to at least the Sweet 16 in four different seasons, reaching the Elite 8 in 2012-13 with Marquette. His most impressive coaching job came at Virginia Tech, where his 2018-19 Hokies reached the Sweet 16 for just the second time in school history before losing to Zion Williamson’s Duke by just two points. His tenure at College Station didn’t include a Sweet 16, but this year’s Aggies team did rank first in the country for offensive rebounding percentage.  He’s a 2x SEC Coach of the Year. 

Cons: A&M had absolutely dreadful shooting stats for a team that was good enough to earn a 4-seed in this year’s tournament. They ranked 328th for three-point percentage and 278th for two-point percentage. Their ability to get offensive rebounds clearly helped them win games, but their shooting percentages are still pretty ugly for a team with power conference talent. 

Brad Brownell, Clemson 

Pros: During the 2023-24 tournament, Brownell led 6-seed Clemson to its first Elite Eight since 1980, beating 3-seed Baylor and 2-seed Arizona to get there. Brownell put together a strong regular season this year to follow up on that success, going 18-2 in the ACC while being the only team in the conference to beat Duke. Brownell was also linked to the Indiana job, seemingly demonstrating that he isn’t quite fully committed to remaining at Clemson.  He’s a 2x CAA Coach of the Year.

Cons: Clemson followed up their Elite Eight by being one of the very few teams to suffer an upset in the first round of this year’s tournament, losing to 12-seed McNeese State. While an Elite Eight is nothing to sneeze at, it’s also one of just two times Brownell has reached the second weekend since taking the Clemson job in 2010-11. 

LOCAL COACHES 

Tony Skinn, George Mason 

Pros: In just his second year as a head coach, Skinn had the George Mason Patriots just one game away from the NCAA tournament. GMU was the 2-seed in the Atlantic-10 conference tournament and lost to 1-seed VCU in the title game by five points. GMU is currently ranked #78 on Kenpom, sitting above power conference schools like Colorado, Stanford, Georgetown and Minnesota. Skinn will also be familiar with Maryland after serving as Willard’s assistant during the 2022-23 season where the Terps made the round of 32.   He was named the Atlantic 10 Head Coach of the Year this season.

Cons: GMU’s offense was incredibly turnover-prone. The Patriots had a turnover percentage of 19.8 percent, which ranked 329th in the country. Skinn is also in just his second year as a head coach and it might be a tall task to ask him to inherit a team that will seemingly be returning zero players from its starting five. 

Duane Simpkins, American 

Pros: In just his second year on the job, Simpkins led American to their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2013-14 after a 13-5 record in the Patriot League. He is also a Maryland alum who played for Gary Williams in the mid-90s and went to DeMatha Catholic High School. It seems incredibly unlikely he’d view Maryland as a stepping stone like Willard did. 

Cons: Hiring an alum doesn’t magically make him better than any other candidate for the job. Patrick Ewing didn’t work at Georgetown, Chris Mullin didn’t work at St. Johns and Juwan Howard did worse at Michigan than John Beilein. Maryland obviously won a national title with an alum as the head coach, but Williams got the Maryland job after spending four years in the Big East and three years in the Big Ten. Meanwhile, Simpkins has only spent two years in the Patriot League. 

MID-MAJOR COACHES    

Eric Olen, UC-San Diego 

Pros: If you want a program builder to take over a team that will seemingly be building next year’s roster from scratch, Olen could be your man. Olen became the head coach at UC-San Diego when they were in Division 2 and guided the Tritons all the way to being a D-1 school who were four points away from upsetting 5-seed Michigan. Olen’s teams did an exceptional job with turnovers on both sides of the ball, ranking sixth for turnover percentage on offense and second on defense.  He’s a 2x Big West Coach of the Year.

Cons: If you want the next coach to be either a local or someone who has already coached in a major conference then I’m afraid Olen is 0-for-2 there. It’s also entirely possible that Olen might want to continue coaching on the west coast and would find a job at a former Pac-12 school more enticing. 

Alan Huss, High Point 

Pros: High Point had the 27th-best offense in the country according to Kenpom. The Panthers went 14-2 in the Big South and won their conference tournament, earning them a 13-seed before losing to Purdue. High Point enjoyed a balanced offense, ranking 15th in two-point percentage and 46th in three-point percentage. Their offense shot a three on 39.4 percent of their field goal attempts, a rate almost perfectly in-line with the national average of 39.0 percent.  He’s a 2x Big South Coach of the Year.

Cons: Huss is lacking in both head coaching experience and local connections. This is his second year as a head coach and prior to taking the High Point job in North Carolina, he spent several years with Creighton in Nebraska.  

The post Maryland Coaching Candidate Pros and Cons appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

 The best way to summarize Baltimore’s conservative approach to free agent starting pitchers is that the Elias front office has never signed one to a multi-year deal. 

 Jordan Lyles got one year entering 2022, as did Kyle Gibson before the 2023 season and this year has also seen Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and Gibson (again) get just one-year deals. 

Lyles had the 22nd-biggest deal among free agent starting pitchers that offseason, while Gibson’s first contract ranked 24th for deals entering 2023 and this offseason saw Morton sit in 19th place for deals given to starting pitchers.  

It’d be one thing if the Orioles were afraid of massive commitments like Max Fried getting eight years or Jacob deGrom getting five years, but they haven’t even signed anyone from the middle class of free agency. There’s a huge gap between avoiding eight-year mega deals and knowing that the Athletics, a team that will be playing in a literal minor league park, were able to make a multi-year commitment for a free agent pitcher this offseason when the Orioles didn’t. 

Signing innings eaters is a low-risk, modestly priced way to shore up your rotation, but a contending team using free agency exclusively for that type of pitcher isn’t exactly the most inspiring way to spend your money. 

Baltimore’s conservative approach to pitching also exists in how long they wait to select their first pitcher in the draft.  

The Orioles have done an absolutely splendid job at drafting position players under Elias, and I promise I’m not writing this article to argue they should’ve taken a pitcher instead of Adley Rutschman or Gunnar Henderson. However, much like free agency, there’s a reasonable middle ground they’ve largely avoided when it comes to acquiring pitching. 

If Elias is still afraid of first-round pitchers after Mark Appel and Brady Aiken then it’s hard to blame him. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the best approach is largely avoiding any pitchers inside the first 125 picks of the draft.  

The Elias front office has overseen six drafts so far, and in just two of them did they end up selecting a pitcher earlier than the 125th overall pick.  

With the benefit of hindsight, the 2021 draft particularly stands out as one where the Orioles could’ve benefitted from a less conservative approach to acquiring pitching.  

The Orioles started strong by selecting Colton Cowser and Connor Norby but then picked a slew of other hitters with underwhelming minor league careers. Reed Trimble, John Rhodes and Donta’ Williams were the next three picks and none of them are in MLB.com’s most recent top 30 Orioles prospects.  

Trimble was the 65th overall pick, while Rhodes was #76 and Williams was #106. Those picks were always going to be fliers unlikely to make the majors, but it couldn’t have hurt to at least make those fliers pitchers instead of hitters. The likely best-case scenario for someone like Trimble would’ve been a solid prospect struggling to find MLB at-bats like Kyle Stowers, while the likely best-case scenario for a pitcher taken at #65 is someone who could have a real chance at contributing to the current major league rotation.  

In the interest of fairness, the Orioles have been much less conservative in acquiring pitching through trades. Landing Corbin Burnes last year was a wonderful piece of business and deadline addition Zach Eflin will be this year’s Opening Day starter. 

However, every trade the Orioles have made to buy pitching has included players they weren’t afraid to get rid of. Players like Joey Ortiz, Stowers and Norby were fine prospects, but none of them had a realistic path to being a starter in Baltimore.  

The only problem with making these kind of trades is the Orioles have seemingly run out of this type of prospect. There’s still top-20 prospects like Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo and promising players who haven’t reached AAA like Enrique Bradfield Jr., but no second-tier top-100 prospects stuck in AAA like Ortiz. 

The lack of trade chips like Ortiz and a timid approach to adding pitching through the draft and free agency could create a major test for how aggressive the front office is willing to be when making trades going forward. If Morton and Sugano are underwhelming but the Orioles are still in playoff contention, will someone like Mayo remain untouchable? 

The main defense for this approach is that investing resources in pitching carries a greater risk than investing in hitters due to the injury-prone nature of pitchers. The Orioles have already seen young arms like Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish deal with injuries, while Gerrit Cole highlights the injury risk for the teams willing to splash the cash in free agency.  

However, the problem with this line of thinking is basically every approach to building a rotation comes with its own risks. Morton and Sugano on one-year deals don’t carry the long-term risk of a big contract, but they do come with the short-term risk of missing the playoffs because your rotation is counting on a 41-year-old Morton and a 35-year-old Sugano making his American debut. 

The Orioles have thus far avoided the ramifications of their approach to drafting and signing starting pitching through a strong lineup and decent trades, but this year is shaping up to be the biggest test yet for this philosophy. Perhaps everything will turn out just fine, but if not, we’ll have to ask some tough questions about how the Elias front office approaches building a rotation.  

The post A Conservative Approach To Starting Pitching appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.