On December 19th, the Baltimore Orioles made their first major addition to their rotation this offseason by acquiring Shane Baz in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays.
Baz isn’t exactly a no-brainer, slam dunk addition to the pitching staff like 2024’s Corbin Burnes deal, but it’s still a promising move. He offers drastic home/road splits that should be solved with a new home park, was acquired with prospects who the Orioles can afford to lose and he has three years of control.
Let’s start with the home/road splits.
In 2025, the Rays found themselves unable to use Tropicana Field due to hurricane damage and instead played at George M. Steinbrenner Field, a venue typically used for Spring Training and the minors.
This was not an arrangement that benefitted Baz.
In 16 starts across 82.1 innings, Baz allowed a 5.90 ERA at home, thanks in large part to a 1.97 HR/9. Among 56 pitchers with at least 80 innings at home, Baz’s 1.97 HR/9 was the second-highest figure, trailing only Baltimore’s very own Tomoyuki Sugano.
Meanwhile, Baz on the road came much closer to being a normal starter. His ERA dropped to 3.86 and his HR/9 was a reasonable 0.86.
Baz’s total ERA wound up being 4.87, resulting in a home ERA over a run higher than his total ERA. The only other pitcher with at least 80 innings at home to do that in 2025 was the Athletics’ Luis Severino, who also found himself pitching in a venue not built for the majors.
Unsurprisingly, batted ball data from Baseball Savant says that Baz was quite an unlucky pitcher at Steinbrenner Field.
Baz allowed a .489 slugging percentage at home, but Baseball Savant’s expected slugging percentage thinks he should have allowed a .398 SLG, a difference of 91 points. Baz was one of 44 pitchers to have at least 350 opposing plate appearances at home and he had the widest gap between his actual and expected slugging percentage among those 44.
Baseball Savant’s batted ball data further illustrates Baz’s tough time at home thanks to its feature that calculates if a home run would have been gone in the other 29 parks. On August 19, Baz allowed a 322-foot homer that would’ve been gone in just two of 30 parks. Meanwhile, a July 21 ball hit into the right-center gap was only going to be a homer at Steinbrenner Field.
Baz on the road wasn’t exactly 1968 Bob Gibson, but it seems likely that a normal home stadium will do wonders for him.
As for the prospects, any analysis should begin with the big names who stayed put: Dylan Beavers and Coby Mayo.
The offseason additions of Taylor Ward and Pete Alonso have created some playing time uncertainty for Beavers and Mayo, which would seemingly increase their chances of getting traded.
If Beavers and/or Mayo are being actively shopped, then it’s a great sign for the rest of the offseason that the Orioles managed to pick up a pitcher without using either player.
Trading Beavers and/or Mayo would come with the risk of moving on from a player(s) who could meaningfully help the 2026 Orioles. The good news is none of the players actually in this trade should carry that same risk.
High school outfielder Slater de Brun, the #37 overall pick in the 2025 draft and highest-ranked prospect moved in the deal according to MLB.com, didn’t even get to see any playing time at low-A Delmarva prior to being sent to the Rays.
Meanwhile, catcher Caden Bodine, MLB.com’s second-best prospect moved in this deal, appeared in a grand total of 11 games with the Shorebirds in 2025 after being drafted.
Starting pitcher Michael Forret and outfielder Austin Overn were both at least able to end 2025 with double-A Chesapeake, but the duo also spent the majority of the year at high-A Aberdeen.
Baltimore also gave the Rays the #33 overall pick in the upcoming draft, another player who won’t even appear in his first professional game until late August or September.
It’s entirely possible that the prospects and future draft pick in this deal become useful major leaguers for Tampa Bay in the future, but Baz, and possibly Beavers and/or Mayo, should be useful major leaguers for the Orioles in 2026.
If Baz is indeed a useful major leaguer, it’s especially good news because the Orioles will have him for three years. Baz should be an Oriole through 2028, a nice bit of stability for a rotation that will currently see Trevor Rogers hit free agency after this year, while Dean Kremer is on track to leave after 2027.
Baz seems like a safe bet to improve in 2026, but if the Orioles really want an impressive rotation, then Baz has to be the second-best starter they add.
BSL Analyst
Rose Katz is a recent graduate of the University of Maryland’s journalism school, where she worked for The Diamondback as the online managing editor and a sports blogger. As a student, she spent almost all of her time on campus in The Diamondback’s newsroom or at Xfinity Center, Ludwig Field and Maryland Stadium. Rose gained intern experience with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN).