Round 1, Pick 22: Vance Honeycutt – OF – University of North Carolina 

For the second consecutive year, the Orioles used their first selection of the draft on an electrifying center fielder with elite defensive traits. Born just 100 miles from Chapel Hill, Honeycutt was destined to become a Tar Heel from the first time he picked up a baseball bat. It was less clear, however, that he would become one of the best players to attend the University of North Carolina in the school’s history. During his three years in the ACC, Honeycutt compiled a slew of accolades including back-to-back ACC Defensive Player of the Year awards, First Team All-American honors, and three appointments to the All-ACC Academic Team, while also tallying the most home runs in a career in UNC history. It was a truly historic run for the centerfielder and one that culminated in an appearance at the College World Series, during which Honeycutt crushed a walk-off home run to take down the University of Virginia in the first round of the tournament.  

Between his power, speed, and defensive prowess, there’s not much to dislike about Honeycutt’s game. However, there are concerns about his hit tool, as he displayed a significant amount of swing-and-miss throughout his collegiate career. He struck out in 83 of his 302 plate appearances (27.5%) as a junior this past season, showing regression from a sophomore campaign in which he struck out just 20.4% of the time. Baltimore has not been afraid of drafting players with strikeout concerns (see Jud Fabian in 2022), and given that each of his other four tools grade out at 60 or above, he was certainly worth taking a chance on. That being said, fans will have to be patient with Honeycutt as he is likely to undergo some swing changes over the next calendar year that may lead to slow production out of the gate.  

Consensus Pre-Draft Projection: Mid/late first round pick 

Prediction for where he will start 2025: Aberdeen Ironbirds 

Question from the pick: What might this pick mean for Baltimore’s willingness to part with some of its outfield prospects at the trade deadline? 

Round 1, Pick 32 (PPI): Griff O’Ferrall – SS – University of Virginia 

With the pick they received when Gunnar Henderson won the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year award, Baltimore selected a player who is the antithesis of Honeycutt. A three year starter at the University of Virginia, Griff O’Ferrall recorded just eight home runs and 88 strikeouts throughout his collegiate career, both numbers that were exceeded by his first round counterpart during his first season at the collegiate level. Where Honeycutt was thought of as a high-risk high-reward prospect, O’Ferrall was considered one of the safest players in the draft thanks to his patient approach and elite bat-to-ball skills. He never displayed much power throughout his time as a Cavalier but was still a thorn in the side of opposing pitchers, finding ways on base more often than not and causing problems on the basepaths. He also displayed excellent glove work at one of the sport’s premier positions, one of the few qualities he shares with the UNC center fielder.  

Another quality he shares with Honeycutt is a track record of awards and accolades. O’Ferrall was a member of the ACC All-Freshman team in 2022 and a First Team All ACC selection in 2023 before topping off his collegiate career by winning the Brooks Wallace Award, which is bestowed to the nation’s top shortstop by the College Baseball Hall of Fame, in 2024. He also broke the Cavalier record for hits (107) and runs (76) in a single season, an honor that surely meant a lot to him given that he was born just an hour from Charlottesville. The ceiling for O’Ferrall is much lower than many of the other players Elias has targeted over the past few years, but his high floor and track record of success make him an interesting addition to the organization nevertheless and a candidate to move quickly through the ranks of the farm. While he will likely start next season alongside Honeycutt in Aberdeen, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him batting leadoff and manning shortstop in Bowie by this time next year. 

Consensus Pre-Draft Projection: Early/mid second round pick 

Prediction for where he will start 2025: Aberdeen Ironbirds 

Question from the pick: Is there room for O’Ferrall to add enough power to elevate his ceiling as a prospect? 

Round 2, Pick 61: Ethan Anderson – C – University of Virginia 

Baltimore doubled down on UVA players with its third selection, taking switch-hitting catcher Ethan Anderson towards the end of the second round. A highly-touted prospect out of Frank W. Cox high school in Virginia, Anderson spent his three years in the ACC terrorizing opposing pitchers to the tune of a .341/.441/.560 career slash line. Though he did not compile a resume quite as impressive as either of the Orioles’ first two picks, he still finished his career with plenty of nods in the UVA record book, landing in the top ten in career doubles, home runs, runs scored, and total bases. Much like his teammate O’Ferrall, Anderson’s success at the collegiate level stemmed from good plate discipline and an elite hit tool as he walked more times than he struck out in each of the past two seasons. Furthermore, his ability to hit from both sides of the plate makes him a perfect fit for an organization that places opposite-handed matchups at the top of its list of priorities. 

The biggest concerns regarding Anderson’s transition to the next level relate to his lack of a clear position. After playing primarily as a first baseman during his first two years at Virginia, Anderson started 26 games behind the plate this past season, filling the void left by Red Sox top prospect and former Cavalier Kyle Teel. With Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo already within the organization, Baltimore may not need Anderson to stick at catcher long-term in order to contribute to the big league team’s success. However, it’s hard to imagine Elias using a second round pick on a player he doesn’t believe will play a premier position moving forward. While Anderson can certainly hit, he doesn’t possess the raw power necessary to become a top prospect if he moves back to first base, so the Orioles will need to hope that the traits they identified to make them believe in his ability to play catcher convert to the next level.  

Consensus Pre-Draft Projection: Early third round pick 

Prediction for where he will start 2025: Delmarva Shorebirds 

Question from the pick: What do the Orioles see defensively that leads them to believe Anderson will be able to stick at catcher moving forward? 

Round 4, Pick 127: Chase Allsup – P – Auburn University 

The Orioles’ decision to take Allsup in the fourth round was highly reminiscent of the team’s selection of Jackson Baumeister with the 63rd overall pick in last year’s draft. Both pitchers had mediocre college statistics backed by intriguing underlying metrics that led scouts to believe they could find greater success as professional players. For Allsup, the difference maker is his devastating slider, which he relied upon to strike out 159 batters in 141 innings while at Auburn. The right-hander split time between the starting rotation and bullpen throughout his college career, so it remains to be seen where he will be utilized moving forward. However, given the draft capital that they invested into him, the Orioles seem to believe Allsup has the potential to be a legitimate starter and if he can follow a similar trajectory to Baumeister, who has pitched to a 3.11 ERA with 83 strikeouts in 66.2 innings this year, he will prove them right.  

It should be noted that while Allsup has some interesting characteristics, this pick was seen as a reach by many analysts. After getting off to a horrific start to the 2024 season as Auburn’s Friday night starter, the Alabama native saw his draft stock plummet as questions arose about his ability to shut down quality lineups. Despite a strong finish to the year, Allsup was never quite able to reestablish himself as an elite prospect, so it came as a surprise to see Baltimore select him in the fourth round as their first pitcher off the board. Furthermore, the fact that the Orioles passed on a number of more highly-touted prospects to take him, including right-hander Connor Foley (No. 106 on MLB Pipeline’s big board), southpaw Tristan Smith (No. 73), and a highly-touted prep arm in Cameron Sullivan (No. 118), raises further questions about Allsup’s worthiness of being taken with the 127th pick. It’s certainly possible that the Orioles will alleviate any of these concerns by signing him under the slot value, but if they fail to do so, expectations will be high for the right-handers ability to make good on the investment. 

Consensus Pre-Draft Projection: 6th-8th round pick 

Prediction for where he will start 2025: Delmarva Shorebirds 

Question from the pick: Can Allsup find success as a rotation piece or will he be relegated to the bullpen as was the case at times during his collegiate career? 

Round 6, Pick 189: DJ Layton – SS – Charlotte Christian HS 

Under the Elias regime, the Orioles have shied away from selecting prep bats during the first ten rounds of the draft, instead preferring to take on known commodities with proven track records in the NCAA. In fact, over the last four years, Baltimore has drafted just three hitters out of high school prior to Round 11 – Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo, and Creed Willems. Two of those three are among the top 25 prospects in all of baseball and the third has flashed immense potential in the lower levels of the minor leagues, so it goes without saying that Orioles fans should be excited about what Layton could bring to the organization. A switch-hitter out of North Carolina, Layton was considered one of the top 500 high school players in the 2024 class according to Perfect Game thanks to his athletic build and strong swing from both sides of the plate. It seemed likely that he would make good on his commitment to the University of Southern Mississippi and spend the next three years in Hattiesburg, but after a transformative senior season in which he displayed improved power and raised his batting average from .307 to .449, Layton put himself in position to bypass the collegiate level and begin his professional career.  

Considering that he is still just 17 years old, it will be years before Layton appears on any top prospect lists. However, the organization has proven that it can turn young raw hitters into elite prospects, so I have little doubt that Elias and his team will set him on the right path towards becoming a major league baseball player. It will require patience, but given his profile, athleticism, and upside, I have a feeling Layton could turn out to be one of the most significant contributors acquired by Baltimore in the 2024 draft.  

Consensus Pre-Draft Projection: 11th-20th round pick 

Prediction for where he will start 2025: FCL Orioles (Rookie ball) 

 Question from the pick: Will Layton continue switch hitting or will the Orioles encourage him to focus his approach on one side of the plate? 

The post Breaking Down The Most Interesting Picks From Baltimore’s 2024 Draft Class appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Fortunately, the Orioles continue to get solid contributions for unexpected places. Cole Irvin has rebounded nicely after a disappointing 2023 season, Albert Suarez has become one of the best feel-good stories in baseball, and Cade Povich has shown potential over his first few starts in the big leagues. Meanwhile, the bullpen has pitched to the third best ERA in the majors despite an obvious lack of high profile names.  

That being said, there are still plenty of questions to be answered regarding how the Orioles will navigate the coming months given their lack of available arms. It seems inevitable that the front office will look to bolster the starting rotation at the trade deadline, as counting on any of the three aforementioned pitchers to win you a playoff game would be optimistic to say the least. The question that remains is which starters will be available, and will Elias and co. be willing to meet the asking price? 

In terms of one year rentals, the options are fairly limited. The Mets have a pair of arms the Orioles could turn to in Jose Quintana and Luis Severino, both of whom would be relatively inexpensive and could provide some much needed stability down the stretch. It remains to be seen whether David Stearns will decide to sell in his first season as the general manager in New York, but if he does, Quintana and Severino would likely be the first two names out the door.  

At 35 years old, Quintana is well past his prime and the numbers have started to show it. His 4.58 ERA represents the third highest mark of his career, and his advanced analytics place him in the bottom third of MLB pitchers in expected ERA, chase rate, whiff rate, and hard-hit rate. Still, as someone who has exceeded 170 innings seven times in his career, Quintana could help manage the workload for the rest of Baltimore’s staff and keep Rodriguez, Kremer, and Corbin Burnes fresh for October. I wouldn’t give up much for the left-hander, but if the Orioles can bring him to town in exchange for an outfielder in the upper levels of the minors like Billy Cook, Hudson Haskin, or John Rhodes, it might be worth consideration.  

On the other hand, the 30-year old Severino would likely command a larger return given his age and superior track record. The former Yankee has rebounded nicely after a disastrous 2023 campaign, pitching to a 3.52 ERA over his first 84.1 innings of 2024. While the strikeouts have been few and far between, the right-hander has found ways to consistently limit hard contact and could make for an intriguing rotation piece for any team looking to make a postseason run. Jim Bowden of The Athletic proposed a trade in which the Orioles would acquire Severino for right-handed pitcher Trace Bright and outfielder Jud Fabian, and while I think that might be an overpay for someone with Severino’s profile given Bright’s tremendous upside, it’s likely not far off from what it would take. Sending Fabian, right-hander Alex Pham, and one of the aforementioned outfielders to New York would probably be enough to get the deal done without mortgaging the farm. 

Yusei Kikuchi is another player that the Orioles could make a move for if Toronto decides to throw in the towel. The left-hander has looked sharp throughout the final year of a three-year contract he signed with the Blue Jays prior the 2022 season, walking just 20 batters while striking out 86 over his first 16 starts. His high velocity fastball and interesting four-pitch mix would make him a solid No. 3 in Baltimore’s rotation, and while it may be difficult to pry him away from a divisional opponent, Toronto has plenty of reasons to try to recoup assets and make a run next year before the rookie contracts of Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette run out. A package that includes two major league ready players in Kyle Stowers and Justin Armbruester, supplemented by a lower level slugger in Creed Willems, would make sense for both sides.  

Two other names worthy of consideration are two of the biggest names who were moved at last year’s trade deadline in Texas’ Michael Lorenzen and Arizona’s Jordan Montgomery. Despite winning their respective pennants last October, the Rangers and Diamondbacks have gotten off to disappointing starts in 2024, sitting at 37-40 and 38-40 respectively. Both teams are on the outside looking in when it comes to the postseason picture and if that remains to be the case for another month, it wouldn’t be shocking to see either of them consider moving a piece that they will lose at the end of the season anyway. Texas and Arizona, much like Toronto, would likely be looking for major league ready contributors in return so infielder Connor Norby could be the perfect headliner in a deal for either starting pitcher.  

Moving over to pitchers who still have multiple years remaining on their current contracts, Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde of the Chicago White Sox have been two of the most talked about names on the market. Having spent the first three years of his major league career either in the bullpen or on the injured list, Crochet has been nothing short of dominant in his first season as a starter. The 25-year old left-hander has allowed just 64 hits, 20 walks, and 32 earned runs while striking out a league-leading 124 batters over the course of his first 88.2 innings. Meanwhile, though at a very different point in his career, Fedde has been equally as impressive during the first three months of the season. Having returned to major league baseball after winning the MVP award in the KBO last year, the veteran right-hander has pitched to a 3.05 ERA while posting a walk rate, ground ball rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity in the top third of MLB pitchers.  

While both would serve as excellent additions to Baltimore’s roster, Fedde makes significantly more sense for a plethora of reasons. Not only would Crochet cost significantly more due to his age and potential, but he has also already exceeded his previous career high in innings by more than 30. It is very possible that he will reach an innings limit within the next few months and if that is the case, his value to Baltimore would diminish significantly. Meanwhile, Fedde tossed over 180 innings last year and has a much longer track record as a starter, so considering that his salary for next season is still just $7.5 million, the Orioles have every reason to make a move for him. I’d be happy to include any prospect other than Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo, Coby Mayo, and Heston Kjerstad to acquire the right-hander, and if the White Sox are willing to add Tommy Pham and a high-upside reliever to the deal, I wouldn’t even consider Kjerstad off limits.  

Tyler Anderson is another arm I’d keep my eye on given his skills and experience. The left-hander cashed in on a fantastic 2022 campaign with the Dodgers, signing a three-year, $39 million contract with the Angels prior to the start of the 2023 season. He followed that up with a disastrous opening campaign in Anaheim but has rebounded nicely in 2024, pitching to a 2.48 ERA with a 1.177 WHIP over his first 15 starts. His 4.55 FIP, 1.54 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and inability to consistently produce ground balls suggest that regression is inevitable, but playing in front of Mt. Walltimore at Camden Yards could work wonders for his ability to continue shutting down opposing offenses. With one more year remaining on his current contract, the Angels will likely look to cash-in on Anderson’s recent form at the trade deadline, making him one of the top arms that could be moved. I would be willing to part with a highly-touted name such as Fabian, Dylan Beavers, or maybe even Norby, as well as a couple of other top 30 prospects, if it meant adding the left-hander to the rotation for the next year and a half.  

Acquiring any of the aforementioned pitchers would kill two birds with one stone, as it would not only supplement the starting rotation but would also allow Suarez, Irvin, or Povich to move into a long relief role. Suarez makes the most sense for that move given his poor performances against the Yankees and Astros, as well as his lack of a proven track record against major league hitters. There is certainly a place for him on the roster, but starting him every fifth day from now until October feels like a recipe for disaster. Entrusting him to pick up the slack and keep the team in ballgames when another pitcher doesn’t have their best stuff would be a much safer and more responsible way to allow him to continue contributing to the Orioles’ World Series aspirations.  

Furthermore, bringing a pitcher with additional years of control would address Baltimore’s larger problem of lacking starting pitching options in 2025. Due to the timing of their respective surgeries, Bradish and Wells are likely to miss most, if not all, of next season, and with Corbin Burnes set to hit free agency this offseason, the Orioles could find themselves in an even worse position a year from now. You never want to make deals from a position of desperation, but overpaying slightly at this year’s deadline to solidify the rotation moving forward would ensure that the championship window extends well beyond this season. Elias has held onto prospects tightly over his five-year tenure as general manager, but the injuries this roster has had to endure may force him to depart from that path sooner rather than later.  

It’s also worth noting that the Orioles could also address this long-term problem by signing Burnes to a long-term contract extension. The right-hander has made it abundantly clear that he has no interest in signing a deal this season as he wants to test the open market in hopes of finding a deal similar to the 9-year, $324 million contract Gerrit Cole signed back in 2019. While six months ago that would have put the Orioles out of the running for his services, the new ownership group could take the opportunity to make their first significant mark on the organization. Baltimore has been burned by many of its largest contracts of the 21st century, and it’s no secret that signing a pitcher to a long-term deal comes with a huge amount of risk. However, pitchers like Burnes don’t come around often and keeping him in Charm City for the next decade would give the team a true ace to lead them through the postseason for the foreseeable future. 

Still, it remains unlikely that Elias and his financial backers will let this season’s injuries impact their decision when it comes to a Burnes extension. After all, both Bradish and Wells should be back by the start of 2026 at the latest, and a $300 million contract could impact Baltimore’s ability to compete for nearly a decade. However, the lack of available arms could lead the organization to be more willing to offer Burnes a shorter-term deal with higher AAV’s similar to what Scott Boras clients Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Cody Bellinger ended up signing last offseason. If the Orioles offer a two-year deal in the neighborhood of $100 million, a number that would greatly exceed the previous record of AAV of $43.3 million, it could give them their ace for the next few seasons while also allowing Burnes to hit free agency once again before he is out of his prime. Whether Burnes would be willing to bet on himself and take that chance remains to be seen, but if he is, it could be the perfect solution for all parties involved.  

Regardless of which path forward the Orioles choose, it is clear that the organization is going to have to take some significant risks if it wants to achieve the ultimate reward. Whether it’s trading prospects or handing out large contracts, the front office needs to show that it is willing to do whatever it takes to win a World Series. Elias tossed a few chips into the center of the table when he acquired Burnes in the offseason, and there’s no turning back now. It’s time for him to go all-in, acquire some arms, and set Baltimore on the best possible path towards winning its first championship in forty years.  

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On Thursday afternoon, Baltimore natives will be treated to their first opening day at Camden Yards since 2018 in what is sure to be a day filled with energy and excitement. The Orioles’ hot start to spring training, which has seen the team go 20-5 thanks to the emergence of a number of top prospects, has done little to quell expectations as Birdland looks to build upon an excellent 2023 campaign. While it’s important to remember that the sample sizes are small and exhibition results are rarely indications of what is to come, the last few weeks have offered some interesting insights into the current state of the roster. Here are my three biggest takeaways from the last few weeks of spring training that could impact how the team performs during the 2024 season and beyond.  

You can never have too many starting pitchers 

During the first 24 hours of spring training, Orioles fans were greeted with a slew of concerning injury updates. Among the most notable players affected were John Means and Kyle Bradish, two starting pitchers who were expected to be significant members of the rotation this year. In his opening press conference, Mike Elias told the media that Means was a month behind in his throwing progression and Bradish had suffered a UCL sprain, raising questions about how much either would be able to contribute in 2024.  

Fortunately, both seem to be on the right track towards making a return this year. Means stated on the Foul Territory podcast that he should be ready to return to action by late April, and Brandon Hyde told the media that Bradish’s elbow is responding well to his rehab. Furthermore, the Orioles seem to have avoided any further health concerns during the ramp up for the regular season which means they should enter the season with a solid five man rotation that includes Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, and Cole Irvin.  

Of that group, Burnes offers the least in terms of any potential concerns. Despite some rough outings in the last few weeks, the 29-year old will head into the year as one the favorites to win the AL Cy Young Award thanks to his electric pitch arsenal and excellent command of the strike zone. Rodriguez should serve as a solid No. 2 as he looks to build upon an excellent second half of 2023. His fastball has already touched 100 MPH on multiple occasions this spring so there are few doubts about his health and level of preparation heading into the season.  

Moving further down the list, Kremer and Wells have both looked solid in limited action in Sarasota. Kremer remains one of the most consistent and steady arms on the roster, while Wells seems to have done enough to regain a starting role despite his struggles after the All-Star break last season. Irvin is the biggest question mark given his inconsistent form throughout 2023, but he raised eyebrows when he touched 96 MPH, the highest mark of his career, in his first outing of the spring. There seems to be optimism throughout the organization that this could be a bounceback year for the southpaw as he looks to regain the workhorse mentality he portrayed during his two years in Oakland. 

Still, the fact that the Orioles will be without two of their best arms for at least the first month of the season offers a crucial piece of advice: you can never have too many starting pitchers. In this era of major league baseball, arm injuries have become far too common for an organization to feel comfortable entering a season without a slew of insurance policies in place. Given that Baltimore’s list of potential fill-in starters is headlined by a 33-year old Julio Teheran and two prospects who have never pitched at the major league level in Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott, the Orioles will almost certainly need to add outside help at some point this season.  

It’s also worth noting that Baltimore isn’t the only ball club facing health concerns. High profile names such as Gerrit Cole, Kevin Gausman, Eury Perez, Lucas Giolito, and Kodai Senga are all expected to miss time to start the year. Each of these cases is a symptom of the epidemic of arm injuries that has overtaken baseball in recent years, and the only way to avoid letting it derail your season is to bring as much depth into the organization as possible. The Rangers followed that model last year and it ended up helping them survive injuries to Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Nathan Eovaldi at various points. Their season ultimately concluded with a World Series title, so it’s hard to say the Orioles wouldn’t be wise to do the same.  

Maybe you can have too many outfielders? 

Throughout the offseason, there was much discussion in Birdland about which of the many promising outfield prospects would earn a spot on the opening roster. As we sit here today, the field seems to have narrowed down to three players: Heston Kjerstad, Kyle Stowers, and Colton Cowser. The problem is that all three have legitimate cases to start the year in Baltimore. Kjerstad produced at the highest level of the three during his stint with the major league club last year, Cowser offers the most defensive versatility and has slashed .342/.468/.763 while looking like one of the best hitters on the roster this spring, and Stowers has shown off tremendous power in both intersquad action and live games en route to leading baseball with seven long balls during spring training.  

It goes without saying that this isn’t really a problem as much as it is a luxury. Hyde will be able to pick and choose matchups to his heart’s delight and should have no trouble putting together lineups that are built for long-term success. However, given that there seems to be just one more outfield spot up for grabs, the front office is going to be forced to have some extremely difficult conversations in the next few days.  

Another potential complication is that there is data to back up the idea that players perform better when they see regular playing time. If Cowser, Stowers, and Kjerstad are kept off the field for multiple days in a row, it could prevent them from finding any sort of rhythm and ultimately hinder them from making positive contributions to the team. Following that logic, it might be better for their development to get regular at-bats in the minor leagues until more playing time becomes available in Baltimore. 

The most obvious solution would be to package one of the aforementioned left-handed hitters in a trade to acquire a veteran pitcher. As mentioned earlier, bringing in more starters is never a bad idea and, if they go the bullpen route, a dynamic relief arm could offer some much needed stability in the late innings in the wake of Felix Bautista’s injury. That being said, it doesn’t seem likely that Mike Elias will part with more young talent to bring in someone who may only stick around for a year or two. 

Another option would be to explore the rare “prospect for prospect” swap to try to deal from a position of strength and acquire depth in an area of weakness. Despite making significant strides in recent years when it comes to arm development, the Orioles’ farm system is still somewhat lacking when it comes to pitching. In fact, according to MLB Pipeline just three of Baltimore’s top 16 prospects are pitchers. Perhaps moving Stowers could net an intriguing young arm from a team in need of a powerful left-handed bat to help balance out the system.  

At the end of the day, the most likely outcome is that one of the three begins the year in Baltimore while the other two are sent back down to Norfolk to continue beating up on Triple-A pitching. Still, it’s worth considering what the long term plan is when it comes to the outfield as there is an abundance of talent but only so much playing time to go around. 

The young studs just might stick around 

2023 was an incredible year in Birdland as the team went from perennial bottom dweller to World Series contender over the course of a few months. Waiting at the end of it, however, was the realization that now that the championship window has opened, pressure to win a World Series will only grow as much of the team’s top talent may head elsewhere at the end of their rookie contracts. The front office had shown very little willingness to offer long-term contract extensions and this offseason seemed like it might be the last chance for the organization to lock up Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and the rest of the young core before they play themselves out of the Orioles’ price range. However, despite the fact that no new contracts were signed over the course of the winter, I am now more confident than ever that Baltimore’s young superstars will be sticking around for the long haul.  

The first and most obvious reason is the sale of the team to billionaire David Rubenstein (which technically took place before spring training but has remained an ongoing process over the past few weeks). The Angelos family had a long and complicated tenure as majority owners of the Orioles. Peter made a number of positive impacts on the organization during his first two decades in charge, but since control was passed to his sons, they have seemed disinterested in making any sort of financial investment. It is for that reason that Orioles fans have been pessimistic about the chances of keeping their young stars in town beyond the conclusion of their rookie contracts. 

However, now that Rubenstein and his $3.9 billion net worth have entered the scene, there’s no reason why any of the team’s top contributors should reach the open market. The new ownership group has the financial capability to compete with just about any team in the league, so a rise in payroll centered around keeping homegrown talent in the organization seems almost inevitable. Furthermore, the fact that Rubenstein is a Baltimore native bodes well for his willingness to invest in creating a winning culture. It’s hard to imagine a world in which he lets the players who turned the fate of the franchise around walk in free agency without giving it everything he has.  

It’s also worth noting that the way the free agent market unfolded this year could incentivize players to be more willing to accept long term extensions prior to hitting free agency. Scott Boras has become famous for pushing his clients to hit the open market to maximize their value, and many other top agents have followed suit in recent years. That being said, over the course of spring training it has become increasingly evident that playing the waiting game may not be the best strategy after all. Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, and Blake Snell all ended up settling for two year contracts after searching for mega-deals, and Jordan Montgomery remains unsigned with just days remaining until opening day.   

Whether or not this year’s free agent market was a fluke remains to be seen, but it’s difficult to imagine that it won’t have any effects on the approach young players and their agents take to future negotiations. Rutschman, who is represented by Dan Vertlieb, as well as Burnes, Henderson, and Jackson Holiday, who are represented by Boras, could be much more inclined to lock up an extension in the coming months or years. Rubenstein would still have to be willing to take on some risk, but the combination of his wealth and a potential shift in mindsets when it comes to free agency could create perfect conditions for contract negotiations in Baltimore.  

Finally, the Baltimore media coverage of what goes on off the field offers further reasons for optimism. Hearing stories about how the young core is spending their downtime in Sarasota and watching videos of them cracking jokes during interviews gives me hope that these guys will stick around for years to come. I understand that baseball is a business, but there’s something to be said for playing alongside the friends you have made throughout your minor league journey and representing the city that drafted you beyond your rookie deal. This Orioles’ team seems to genuinely love playing together, and that could pay dividends when it comes time to negotiate new contracts.  

The post Spring Training Takeaways appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

So, with spring training underway, it’s time to look internally at some of the players within the organization. While newcomers like Burnes and Craig Kimbrel will get the majority of the attention in Sarasota, there are also plenty of returners who will be interesting to watch. Let’s take a look at some of the top bounceback and regression candidates heading into the 2024 season. 

Bounceback 

Dillon Tate 

Coming off of a season in which he failed to make an appearance at the major league level, Tate has nowhere to go but up. Arm injuries plagued the right-hander throughout 2023, limiting him to just 10.2 innings of minor league ball. However, the 29-year-old is still just one year removed from a breakout 2022 campaign that saw him emerge as one of the best arms in Baltimore’s bullpen while posting a 3.05 ERA and a .991 WHIP. The underlying metrics suggest that his fastball was one of the top pitches in all of baseball (97th percentile in Run Value) and his walk rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity against all landed in the top 20% of major league pitchers. There are still plenty of question marks regarding Tate’s health, but if he can return to his 2022-self, he could play a significant role in a bullpen that will be missing two of its biggest pieces from last year in DL Hall and Felix Bautista. 

Colton Cowser 

Cowser’s first stint in Baltimore was filled with far more downs than ups. The highly-touted prospect slashed just .115/.286/.148 in 61 at-bats at the MLB level while recording more than three times as many strikeouts as hits. He continued to look unbalanced and uncomfortable at the plate after returning to Triple-A, perhaps due to a lack of confidence thanks to his shortcomings in The Show. That being said, major media outlets like Baseball America and MLB Pipeline remain confident in the outfielder’s ability, placing him among the top 35 prospects in all of baseball this winter. There’s no guarantee that Cowser breaks camp on the 26-man roster, but if his career minor league OPS of .909 is any indication of what he is capable of, the sky is still the limit for the former first-round pick. 

Cole Irvin 

Hopes were high for Irvin after the Orioles sent promising infield prospect Darell Hernaiz to Oakland in order to acquire him during the 2023 offseason. He earned the third spot in the starting rotation thanks to a solid showing at spring training, but after a disastrous first few weeks of the regular season, he lost his place on the roster altogether. The left-hander split his time between Norfolk and Baltimore throughout the rest of the year, showing flashes of the potential he displayed with the Athletics but never finding a consistent role. However, given that both John Means and Kyle Bradish are expected to miss the start of the 2024 season, Irvin has a golden opportunity to redeem himself and prove his worth out of the gate this spring. His statline from the second half of 2023, which boasts a 3.40 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and more than four times as many strikeouts as walks, suggests that he could be a valuable asset as both a starter and a reliever. The key to his success will be finding a way to extend those numbers over the course of a full season, something he did multiple times before coming to the Orioles.  

Jorge Mateo 

Mateo’s 2023 campaign was one of the strangest recorded by an Oriole in recent memory. He got off to a blazing start, batting .347 with 6 home runs and 10 stolen bases over the first month of the season, before falling completely off the face of the Earth (and out of the starting lineup) early in the summer. The advanced analytics suggest that April was more of an anomaly than any real indication of his batting prowess. In fact, he has ranked in the bottom third of MLB hitters in average exit velocity, barrel rate, chase rate, and expected batting average in each of his two full seasons in Baltimore. Still, given his speed and defensive capabilities, a slight improvement at the plate could be all it takes to turn the shortstop into a 2 WAR player. Furthermore, if the reports that he has been working on becoming more comfortable in the outfield are true, he could become a versatile chess piece for Brandon Hyde to turn to as a late inning substitution.  

Regression 

Austin Hays 

Much like Mateo, Hays got off to an excellent start to 2023, slashing .314/.355/.498 in the first half of the year and earning his first ever All-Star game nod. The second half told a different story, however, as he posted a measly .667 OPS over the final 66 games of the year. It’s worth noting that injuries almost certainly played a role in Hays’ late season regression, but the dramatic difference between the numbers he posted in April, May, and June and those he posted in July, August, and September is concerning nonetheless. Even more concerning is the fact that he has failed to exceed the 60th percentile in any of Baseball Savant’s offensive metrics over the past three seasons. Given that he is one of the only right-handed hitters in an outfield that is likely to include at least three left-handers in Cowser, Cedric Mullins, and Heston Kjerstad, he should still play a significant role in Baltimore this year. That being said, I can’t help but wonder if the once-top-prospect has already reached his ceiling and if further regression may be on the way.  

Danny Coulombe 

The acquisition of Coulombe just before opening day last season went largely unnoticed throughout Birdland, but he quickly emerged as one of Hyde’s most reliable options out of the bullpen. The left-hander lowered his career ERA from 3.92 to 3.69 over the course of the year while tossing 50 or more innings for just the second time in his nine year career. His underlying metrics were even better as they included an expected ERA, average exit velocity against, chase rate, and hard hit rate all above the 90th percentile of major league pitchers. Still, it’s difficult to imagine Coulombe having the same amount of success this season. Not only did he have worse second half splits after more data surrounding his pitch mix became available, but he also plays the most volatile position in all of baseball as a relief pitcher. Coulombe will get no shortage of opportunities thanks to the recent departure of Hall, but whether or not he will be able to carry over his success from 2023 and cash in on them remains to be seen.  

Ryan O’Hearn 

O’Hearn was one of the best stories of the 2023 season as he went from being left off the opening day roster to becoming a mainstay at the top of batting order. Putting on his best “2014 Steve Pearce” impression, the first baseman slashed .289/.322/.480 with 14 home runs and 60 RBIs in 112 games. He also played very solid defense, finishing in the 82nd percentile in outs above average despite being considered a well-below average defender throughout his first few years in the league. Unfortunately, similar to Coulombe, O’Hearn still has a long way to go to prove that 2023 was more than just an aberration. His career OPS is still just .714 and the fact that he struck out more than five times as much as he walked last year suggests that he could be in store for some batted ball luck regression in 2024. Don’t be surprised if he sees his role decrease by midseason, especially if Kjerstad and Ryan Mountcastle are able to stay healthy.  

Kyle Bradish 

It feels a bit unfair to include Bradish on this list given that it was recently revealed that he is dealing with a UCL sprain, but regression felt inevitable for the right-hander well before that announcement took place. Despite most of his advanced metrics landing between the 40th and 70th percentile of major league pitchers, the second-year starter was able to battle his way to a dominant 2.83 ERA with a 3.81 strikeout-to-walk ratio last season. It wasn’t always pretty, but he found ways to be successful day in and day out, regardless of whether he had his best stuff. That being said, it feels like he is destined to take a step backwards as opposing offenses have an entire offseason to study his stuff. While he was always thought of as a capable prospect, Bradish was never pegged as a future ace throughout his time in the minor leagues and though there are cases of young arms flipping a permanent switch once they arrived in the majors, there are many more of players recording one spectacular year before regressing back to the norm. That isn’t to say that Bradish can’t serve as a reliable number two starter at some point this season. I just wouldn’t bank on him posting a sub-3.00 ERA and finishing in the top five of Cy Young voting again any time soon.  

The post 2024 Orioles Bounceback and Regression Candidates appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The Orioles were one of the teams that made a significant move, signing closer Craig Kimbrel to a one-year, $13 million deal. By adding one of the top relievers on the market, Mike Elias took a step towards filling the Felix Bautista-sized hole in the roster. However, there remains another glaring problem in Baltimore: starting pitching. 

While Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, and John Means can go toe-to-toe with any lineup in the big leagues, the team’s lack of depth when it comes to starters remains highly concerning. In what will be the second edition of my offseason wish list, I will take a look at what the Orioles can do to address those concerns and take themselves one step closer towards constructing a championship-caliber roster. 

The starting pitching pursuit naturally begins with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell, both of whom will drastically improve whatever rotation they join. At just 25 years old, Yamamoto has won the Triple Crown and the Sawamura Award in three straight years, dominating competition across the NPB.  His age and experience would slot perfectly into Baltimore’s young core, but projections claim he could earn north of $250 million, a price tag the Orioles will never be able to match. 

Meanwhile, Snell, 31, might be more willing to sign a shorter deal with higher average annual value (AAV). However, after leading the NL in ERA and winning his second Cy Young this past season, this may be the left-handers best chance to cash in on a significant deal that he can ride out until the end of his career. Offering six or seven years of guaranteed money to a pitcher who may have already reached his peak seems irresponsible given the number of players already in the organization who are looking for contract extensions.  

Jordan Montgomery tops the list of more attainable but still attractive options after having an excellent 2023 campaign. Many fans questioned why Elias and co. didn’t do more to acquire the left-hander during last summer’s trade deadline, so bringing him in during the offseason would certainly be cause for excitement. 

Montgomery was nothing but dominant after being traded to Texas midseason, posting a 2.79 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP while striking out more than four times as many batters as he walked. His good form continued throughout the postseason as he allowed just 10 earned runs in 31 innings of work during the Rangers’ World Series run. If he can repeat that performance in 2024, he would be well worth his expected price tag of $20 to $25 million per year. 

Furthermore, the fact that both Snell and Montgomery are left-handed makes them even more desirable given the dimensions of Camden Yards. The Orioles have done little to take advantage of “Mount Wall-timore” since its creation, relying primarily on right-handed pitchers over the past two years. Bringing in a top end left-hander would be a significant step towards doing so.  

Marcus Stroman fits a similar mold to Montgomery in that he likely wouldn’t command the salary of an ace but has the potential to offer ace-like returns. A disastrous finish to 2023 saw his stock fall dramatically heading into the offseason, but a look back at his first half, in which he pitched to a 2.96 ERA en route to earning a spot in the All-Star game, shows what he can offer at his best. If he is willing to take a two or three-year deal with relatively high AAV, Stroman could be a perfect fit for Baltimore.  

Two other names to keep an eye on are 30-year-old Shota Imanaga and 29-year-old Naoyuki Iwasawa. Both spent the better part of a decade dominating in Japan before finally being posted to MLB free agency this offseason. While they project to be middle of the rotation arms rather than frontline starters, they would likely command lower salaries and therefore may be worth taking a flier on. 

If the Orioles opt to go the trade route rather than signing a free agent, Dylan Cease is the obvious choice. There’s been speculation surrounding whether or not the White Sox will move their ace for months, and based on their plethora of prospects within their farm system, the Orioles would be a perfect landing spot. 

Cease was mediocre for much of 2023, pitching to a 4.58 ERA and a 1.418 WHIP. The year before, however, he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball, tossing 184 innings while posting a 2.20 ERA and 11.1 strikeouts-per-nine innings. It would likely cost four total prospects, with at least two coming out of the Orioles’ top ten, but it might be worth it to add a true ace to the rotation for the next two years.  

Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow are also interesting candidates given that they each have just one year remaining on their current contracts. Burnes, 29, has been one of the best pitchers in the NL over the past three years thanks to a dynamic cutter that he throws over 55% of the time. Not only was he in the 85th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard hit rate last season, but he also showed tremendous durability, tossing more innings than anyone on the Orioles staff.  

Glasnow’s strengths lie elsewhere as he has struggled to both stay on the field and limit hard contact throughout his career. However, he finished last season in the 95th percentile in whiff rate and 97th percentile in strikeout rate, illustrating an innate ability to create plenty of swings and misses. The Orioles’ pitching coaches could have a field day molding him into one of the best pitchers in the American League, but it seems far-fetched to imagine the Rays trading their ace to a division rival.  

There are, of course, plenty of other pitchers the Orioles could go after that wouldn’t require them to surrender any of their top prospects. Shane Bieber and Alek Manoah are among the top names on that list after both endured struggles during the 2023 campaign. That being said, how much of a difference they would make is much less certain than many of the other names on the market.  

Finally, it’s worth considering what it would take to acquire one of Seattle’s young arms. The Mariners have already shown a willingness to trade major league talent this offseason, sending Jarred Kelenic to Atlanta in what most pundits considered to be a salary dump. Whether or not they would also trade Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, or Bryce Miller, all of whom have multiple years of club control on their contracts, remains to be seen but all three have the potential to serve as mainstays in the Orioles rotation for the foreseeable future if acquired. 

In an ideal world, the Orioles would acquire one of the bigger names on the market and supplement it with a smaller signing to improve their opening day rotation and their depth simultaneously. It might require them to be willing to part with Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser, or one of the many other top prospects in the system, but with limited playing time available on the major league roster, moving a young bat to bring in an arm makes plenty of sense. Regardless of the cost, adding at least one new starter is critical to putting the roster in a position where they can not only repeat as AL East champions, but also make a run in the postseason.  

The post Orioles Offseason Wish List Part 2: Acquire Arms appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Just a year removed from his infamous “lift-off” comment, which drew criticism after the team was relatively inactive at last year’s winter meetings, Elias will have plenty of questions asked of him if he fails to deliver once again. Expectations are high among the Baltimore faithful and while the level of play on the field has risen to the task, the commitment from the front office and ownership has yet to do so. 

Over the next few weeks, I will discuss my hopes and dreams for what the Orioles can do to change that narrative during what should be a thrilling few months of rumblings, rumors, and (hopefully) roster moves. So, without further ado, let’s dive into the most pressing matter on the Orioles’ agenda: contract extensions.  

Now that the Orioles have established a winning culture, the next step is to ensure that culture remains in Baltimore for the long haul. The easiest way to do that is to extend the talent already present within the organization, whether that be the veterans who have contracts that are soon to run out or the young stars who will only see their price tag rise over the next few years.  

Teams like the Braves have found tremendous success by extending their best players within the first two years of their rookie contracts. Not only does this help to avoid contract disputes and the deterioration of relationships that frequently arise during arbitration, but it also gives the team a chance to lock up future superstars before they have reached their full potential. There is, of course, an element of risk that ownership must be willing to take when crafting these sorts of deals, but the potential returns are exponential. 

Unfortunately, even if John Angelos was willing to take a leap of faith and offer an eight-plus year contract to one of the Orioles’ young superstars, it might already be too late. Adley Rutschman has established himself as a consensus top-three catcher in baseball, Gunnar Henderson is about to be named the AL Rookie of the Year, and Kyle Bradish will almost certainly receive AL Cy Young votes. Still, Rutschman, Henderson, Bradish, and the rest of the young core still have multiple years of relatively low salaries remaining on their rookie contracts, so offering them more money up front and a few extra years of stability could be enticing.  

Rutschman is the most important name on the list given his role in the team’s success. Not only has he been a consistent force at the top of the batting lineup over the past two years, but he has also been one of the best defenders at the most difficult position in baseball and has established an excellent rapport with the pitching staff. 

Our former BSL colleague Stephen Loftus took a look at what it might take to extend Rutschman back in 2021, but given that the Orioles have miraculously gone 158 and 109 since his arrival, it’s safe to say that his impact has been greater than anyone could have imagined and he therefore will cost more than what Orioles fans originally hoped. That being said, letting Rutschman walk out the door after the 2027 season is simply not an option so the front office will need to find a way to get a deal done this winter regardless of what it takes.  

Looking around the league, Sean Murphy’s 6-year, $73 million deal that he signed with the Braves last December seems like a good starting point for negotiations. While Rutschman will likely require a greater yearly salary, Murphy signed his extension with three years remaining on his rookie contract (Rutschman has four) so the numbers may not end up being as far apart as they might initially seem. Seven years and $100 million-$120 million would be a fair price for both sides.  

Henderson is an even trickier situation for a number of reasons. First off, he’s just 22 years old and will therefore reach free agency when he is 27. Most players don’t hit free agency until a few years after that, so he could afford to sign an eight or nine year deal with the Orioles and still reach the open market with plenty of time left in his career. 

Alternatively, Henderson is a Scott Boras client which means he will likely go wherever the biggest paycheck lies. The Orioles still have the upper-hand in negotiations given that the young shortstop has two years left before arbitration, but the longer they wait to strike a deal, the smaller that advantage will become. 

There’s also the Jackson Holliday situation which could cause problems in negotiations. If Holliday lives up to expectations, he will be one of the best middle infielders in baseball within the next few years. While having two superstars next to each other will be great in the short term, the reality of the situation is that both of them are going to want to be paid shortstop money and only one of them (or none of them if Angelos refuses to open up his pocketbook) will be able to. The Orioles may be hesitant to pay Henderson until they see what they have in Holliday, but waiting any longer to lock down Henderson may eliminate the chance of it happening altogether.  

Still, it’s important to remember that Henderson is coming off of one of the best rookie seasons in franchise history. Not only did he slash .255/.325/.489 while posting a 6.3 bWAR during the regular season, but he was also one of the only players to show up and impress in the postseason. Henderson is a generational talent and Baltimore fans should be able to enjoy he and Rutschman well beyond their rookie contracts. A nine-year deal worth somewhere between $150 and $200 million should get the job done.  

Moving over to the pitchers, Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez are probably more likely to accept long-term contracts. However, the same reasons they would want to lock up their futures now are likely deterrents for the front office, who have shown themselves to be extremely risk averse. 

Not only are pitchers much more subject to injuries than position players, but pitching is significantly more volatile than hitting. There have been plenty of cases of pitchers who have impressed over a one or two year span, received a large payday, and regressed significantly shortly after. Because of this, pitchers rarely receive contracts that last longer than five or six years so given that Bradish and Rodriguez still have plenty of time remaining on their rookie deals, there’s very little incentive for the front office to extend either of them until at least 2025.  

It should also be noted that there are plenty of veterans on the roster who are also worthy of consideration for a contract extension. Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, and John Means all are set to become free agents within the next three years, and while keeping all of them around seems unlikely, locking down a couple of them to serve as veteran presences would make a lot of sense. 

Mullins seems like the most likely candidate of the bunch given his well-rounded skill set and track record of good health, but the Orioles’ selection of Enrique Bradfield Jr. in the first round of last summer’s MLB Draft leads me to believe the front office doesn’t see him as their long-term center fielder. While a move to one of the corner spots would make sense, Hays might be better suited to stick around in that role given his comfort in left field and the fact that the Orioles have a plethora of young left-handed bats. 

Santander and Mountcastle are also likely fighting for just one spot given their defensive limitations. Santander has been the more consistent of the two, but he will need to develop into a serviceable first baseman if he is going to stay in Baltimore for the long haul. Given that Rutschman is set to start at DH for 35-40 over the next few years, the Orioles cannot afford to pay out big money to someone whose sole contributions come from their bat.  

As for Means, his future will largely depend on how he performs over the next twelve months. He has established a deep connection with the city of Baltimore and seems like a perfect fit to serve as a mentor to the young arms in the system, but he will need to build upon his strong finish to 2023 while staying healthy before earning a new contract.  

Anyone who stepped into Camden Yards in September or October could feel excitement around this team, and given their lack of experience and the influx of talent still present in the minor leagues, the best is likely yet to come. The worst possible thing that the front office could do is let the players who brought baseball back to Baltimore leave at the end of their six-year rookie contracts, and the longer they wait to strike a deal, the more likely that outcome becomes. Extensions need to happen and they need to happen sooner than later if the Orioles are going to take the next step towards winning a World Series title. 

The post Orioles Offseason Wish List Part One: Contract Extensions appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

For the purposes of this article, let’s assume that the Orioles use a four-man starting rotation consisting of Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, John Means, and Dean Kremer. That leaves approximately nine available spots in the bullpen and at least 12 players worthy of consideration. Let’s take a look at each of those candidates and where they rank relative to each other heading into the postseason. 

 1. Yennier Cano

 Cano is the obvious choice for the top spot on this list after a season in which he established himself as not just one of the best relievers in Baltimore, but one of the best relievers in the entire league. Despite some second-half struggles, he finished first on the team in strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.00), second in ERA (2.11) and third in WHIP (1.00) while landing in the 85th percentile or higher among all MLB pitchers in expected ERA, chase rate, barrel rate, and pitching run value. The immunity to pressure that Cano has displayed over the past five months will make him an invaluable piece throughout the playoffs, especially as the Orioles continue to try to fill the Felix Bautista-sized hole in the roster.  

 2. Danny Coulombe

Much like Cano, Coulombe has enjoyed a breakout 2023 campaign that has seen him go from a fringe roster player to a key member of the bullpen. His 1.11 WHIP and 10.2 K/9 are the best marks of his career and are indicative of the dominance he has displayed since joining the Orioles. His ability to solicit soft contact is perhaps his best attribute, as evidenced by his average exit velocity allowed of 85.6 MPH and his hard hit rate of 30.4%, which rank in the 96th percentile and 95th percentile of MLB pitchers respectively. Coulombe should see his name called a number of times throughout the postseason, especially against some of the left-handed heavy lineups present among the remaining AL teams. 

 3. DL Hall

It’s hard to believe how important Hall has become to the Orioles bullpen given that he joined the major league roster just over a month ago. Since his call up, Hall leads all Baltimore pitchers in appearances (17) while pitching to an impressive 2.76 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP. Even more impressive, however, is that he has walked just four batters in 16.1 innings over that span, suggesting that he has finally found the control that has always evaded him. He’s also one of the freshest arms on the roster, having taken two months away from pitching over the summer, so fatigue should not be a problem for him should the Orioles make a deep playoff run.  

 4. Tyler Wells

After a phenomenal first half of the season that saw him post a 3.18 ERA while holding opponents to a measly .193 batting average, Wells imploded after the all-star break and was ultimately sent down to Triple-A. Still, while he may have lost a spot in the postseason rotation, he could be an important part of the bullpen over the next few weeks. Since returning to Baltimore, he has tossed five scoreless innings with six strikeouts, no hits, and just one walk, suggesting that he may have gotten his confidence back at the perfect time. It should also be noted that Hyde has shown a willingness to pitch Wells in the late innings of close games, having already used him in the 9th inning against Washington and Boston, so don’t be surprised if he gets a chance to close at some point this postseason. 

 5. Cionel Perez

A few months into the 2023 season, it looked as though Perez might be cut from the roster entirely. Over the second half of the season, however, he regained his 2022 form, allowing an earned run in just one of his 26 outings since the start of August. While the strikeout numbers remain unimpressive, he has found a way to limit walks, create soft contact, and minimize damage all while regaining the confidence of the coaching staff. Furthermore, Perez is one of the few pitchers on the roster who is significantly better against left-handed hitters than he is against right-handed hitters, so he could take on the role of a specialist in the postseason.  

 6. Jacob Webb

Webb’s introduction to Baltimore went about as well as it could have, as he produced scoreless outings in his first nine appearances after being claimed off waivers from the Angels. Since then, he has endured a string of difficult outings that have caused his ERA to rise from 3.12 to 3.69 and his WHIP to rise from 1.17 to 1.29 over the final month of the season. That being said, while he seems unlikely to be given the ball in a high-leverage situation in the postseason, Webb could still be handed the fifth or sixth inning on multiple occasions should a starter be pulled early. His body of work throughout the season and the underlying metrics behind his pitch arsenal suggest that the Orioles should have full confidence in his ability to fill that role.  

 7. Kyle Gibson

There was a time when Gibson seemed like a lock for the postseason rotation, but the rise of Rodriguez, the return of Means, and the consistency of Kremer have made that seem like a long shot at this point. His own performance, which saw him post a mediocre 4.73 ERA and rank in the bottom half of the league in expected batting average, average exit velocity, and hard hit rate, among other statistics, has also done little to help his case. That being said, Gibson did exactly what this team needed from him throughout the regular season: he ate innings, never missed a start, and gave the offense a chance to win more often than not. Now it’s time for him to take a back seat, let the young arms take over, and be ready to come out of the bullpen should he be needed.  

 8. Jack Flaherty

Flaherty’s arrival in Baltimore was met with much excitement and anticipation and his first start with the team, in which he tossed six innings of one run ball in a win over Toronto, only elevated expectations. Since then, however, he has been nothing short of a tremendous disappointment, surrendering 25 earned runs in just 28.2 innings of work. Still, there’s something to be said for having a veteran who has pitched and found success in the postseason on the roster. While it’s unlikely that Flaherty will see much, if any, action in October, he should get a spot in the bullpen as a long reliever who can coach up some of the less experienced arms as they prepare for their first taste of playoff baseball.  

 9. Mike Baumann

 Baumann was one of the more reliable Orioles relievers for much of the 2023 season, but it always felt like regression was inevitable. His advanced metrics, which place him in the bottom half of major league pitchers in just about every statistic imaginable, finally caught up to him in August, during which a trio of bad outings caused his ERA to rise from 3.42 to 3.82.  He was sent down to Triple-A as a result and posted six  appearances there before being brought back up to Baltimore in mid-September.  “The Vulture” looked solid in his first four outings back at the major league level, but whether or not it was enough to earn him a spot on the postseason roster remains to be seen.  

 10. Cole Irvin

Irvin never quite found his footing in Baltimore after coming over from the Athletics during the offseason. He fell out of favor with both management and the fanbase after a rocky month of April, and while he looked solid after returning from Triple-A in mid-June, he always felt like more of an innings-eater than a reliable starting pitcher. With Gibson and Flaherty likely to hold down that role in the postseason, Irvin seems like a long shot to make the roster. His saving grace could be the fact that he’s left-handed, which only three other contenders for the bullpen can lay claim to. 

 11. Shintaro Fujinami

Hopes were high for Fujinami when the Orioles acquired him from Oakland back in July, but while he has shown flashes of his potential from time-to-time, he has remained very inconsistent throughout his tenure in Baltimore. Thanks to his high velocity fastball, he has been able to solicit plenty of whiffs and hold opponents to a .195 batting average over the second half of the season. At the same time, however, he has had multiple outings where he has displayed a complete lack of control and an inability to get anyone out. There is very little room for error in the playoffs and one bad relief appearance can be the difference between advancing and seeing your season come to an end, so Fujinami’s inconsistency may place him on the outside looking in when roster decisions are made.  

 12. Bryan Baker

Baker’s absence from the major league roster is the primary reason behind this ranking. His 3.60 ERA and 1.27 WHIP would be good enough to make most postseason rosters, but the fact that he has faced MLB hitters just once since the start of August is a major knock on his chances to earn a spot in the Orioles bullpen. Baker should get another shot in Baltimore next season, especially with Bautista sidelined for all of 2024, but bringing him back for a postseason run seems highly unlikely.   

The post Ranking The Orioles Bullpen Options Heading Into The Divisional Round appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

In some ways it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Westburg adjusted to the major league level  far quicker than any other Oriole, including Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman. He did play 158 games with Triple-A Norfolk, after all, giving him plenty of time to develop a bat and glove which many thought were already among the most major-league-ready tools of any player coming out of the 2020 MLB Draft.  

What has been surprising, however, is that despite playing at an elite level over the past few months, Westburg has yet to get a hold on a position and is still being treated as part of an infield rotation. As of September 17, Westburg had started just 46 of the 74 games that have taken place since he was called up to the major leagues. For reference, Adam Frazier and Ramon Urias, his primary competitors for playing time, have started 43 and 45 games respectively over that span. 

Brandon Hyde’s continued rotation of all three players is frustrating given the disparity between Westburg’s .270/.320/.422 slash line and the .249/.305/.412 and .266/.332/.377 lines posted by Frazier and Urias. It is even more so given the underlying metrics behind his play and that of his counterparts.  

Of the three, Westburg ranks first in average exit velocity (90.5), maximum exit velocity (111.4), hard hit rate (44.8), and expected slugging percentage (.402). In other words, Westburg is making significantly more loud contact than Frazier and Urias. While high exit velocities don’t always yield better batted ball results, they are often an indication of a player’s potential at the plate as well as their ability to change a game with one swing of the bat. 

That’s not to say Frazier’s ability to put the ball in play, evidenced by his 13.8% strikeout rate, or Urias’ affinity for hitting low line drives and hard ground balls, represented by his 7.7 degree launch angle, don’t have a use in today’s game. However, Westburg gives the Orioles a better chance to drive a ball into the gap and pick up extra bases, while only slightly decreasing their odds of getting a single or a walk, in every at bat he takes. That’s a trade off I’d take any day of the week.  

Furthermore, Westburg’s splits suggest that he is capable of facing off against any pitcher, regardless of which arm they throw with. His .290/.355/.449 slash line against southpaws blows away his competition, but his .259/.299/.405 line against right-handers is nothing to scoff at either. Based on Hyde’s lineup decisions, one would anticipate a large disparity between Westburg’s ability to face right-handers and that of Frazier and Urias. The stats, however, tell a different story as Frazier’s .258/.309/.426 line and Urias’ .278/.340/.396 line are eerily similar to what Westburg has recorded.  

It’s also noteworthy that once he gets on base, Westburg is a bigger threat to swipe a bag or advance an extra base on a single than Urias and Frazier. His sprint speed of 28.9 feet per second, which ranks in the 88th percentile of all major league players, has already helped him to tally four stolen bases in limited opportunities. Frazier’s mark of 26.5 feet per second and Urias’ mark of 26.7 feet per second are significantly less impressive (32nd and 35th percentile respectively).  

Even on defense, which Hyde has frequently used to justify Frazier and Urias’ playing time, Westburg has been far and away the best option. The rookie ranks second on the Orioles roster and in the 83rd percentile of all MLB players in outs above average (OAA) with four. Meanwhile, Frazier and Urias have both been displayed well below-average range, posting -14 OAA and -8 OAA respectively.  

Outs above average isn’t the only metric that illustrates Westburg’s defensive prowess as according to Fangraphs’ defensive runs saved (DRS), Westburg and Urias have had a similar impact (4 DRS), while Frazier has been less impactful (2 DRS). The rookie has also recorded just one error in 179 opportunities, a much lower rate than Frazier and Urias who average an error every 91 and 58 opportunities respectively. 

Furthermore, there is evidence to suggest that the inconsistency surrounding his defensive positioning has hindered Westburg’s performance at the plate. In 36 games at second base, Westburg is slashing an impressive .313/.360/.496. Alternatively, in 24 games at third base, he is slashing just .207/.250/.293. 

While these trends stem from a relatively small sample size, it’s hard to deny such a stark statistical contrast. Furthermore, I found similar data that suggested Gunnar Henderson’s constant positional movement was causing problems in his approach at the plate when I examined his slow start back in April. Since he has become the regular starting shortstop Henderson’s bat has improved exponentially, so who’s to say giving Westburg primary responsibility over second base won’t yield similar results. 

With so little time left in the season, it’s unlikely that Hyde’s usage of Westburg, Frazier, and Urias will change much in the coming weeks. Furthermore, the Orioles skipper seems to be pulling all the right strings right now so switching up his approach would make little sense. Heading into next season, however, I anticipate that Westburg will take on a much bigger role in Baltimore and finally earn sole responsibility as the team’s starting second baseman. 

He has displayed above average skills at the plate, on the bases, and in the field and he should only get better in the coming months and years. While he may always be overshadowed by the Rutschmans, Hendersons, and Hollidays of the world, Westburg already is and will continue to be a key piece of this Orioles roster for years to come.  

The post Should Jordan Westburg Be The Everyday Second Baseman? appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The biggest remaining question is how their starting pitching, which has hovered around league average for much of the season, will hold up in September and October. Between inconsistent veterans and impressive but inexperienced youngsters, choosing which pitchers to rely on when the lights are brightest will be a difficult task for Brandon Hyde and his crew. I decided to take my best shot at ranking the options, so here is the order in which I would put my faith in each of the Orioles starting pitchers if the playoffs began today. 

 7. Cole Irvin

After a miserable start to his Orioles career, Irvin has pitched admirably over the past few months and seems to have regained the confidence of the coaching staff. Since returning from Norfolk in early June, the left-hander has lowered his ERA from 10.38 to 4.92, his WHIP from 2.00 to 1.42, and his FIP from 5.25 to 4.04. Furthermore, in six starts during that span, he has allowed just seven earned runs, 25 hits and 5 walks in 28.2 innings of work. Those numbers are much more reminiscent of what the Orioles were looking for when they acquired him from Oakland than what he posted back in April. 

That being said, Irvin has a long way to go before he earns consideration as a potential playoff-game starter. He has yet to shut down a truly elite offense and his baseball savant page is littered with statistics that suggest he is below average when it comes to major league starters. Among those are his average exit velocity (38th percentile), expected ERA (4th percentile), barrel rate (10th percentile), and whiff rate (12th percentile). Unless he can drastically improve those numbers over the final two months, Irvin is more likely to be left off the postseason roster altogether than he is to get a starting nod when the season is on the line.  

 6. Kyle Gibson

Gibson is probably the hardest pitcher to place on this list because of the disparity between his stats and his value to the team. With a 4.89 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and advanced metrics that place him firmly below league average, it’s difficult to make a case that he would give the Orioles a better chance to win than the other guys on this list. However, he is the most-experienced and highest-paid pitcher on the staff, in addition to being one of just two Orioles starters who have pitched in a playoff game before.  

It took me a while but I settled on sixth for Gibson because, to me, his value to this team lies in his ability to eat innings and save the bullpen. He has completed six innings in 15 of his 25 starts and has failed to complete five innings just three times, showing an ability to battle regardless of whether he has his best stuff. Unfortunately, working late into games is much more valuable in September than it is in October, when off days become more frequent. The importance of having him in the dugout to mentor the younger arms as they make their postseason debuts cannot be overstated, but handing him the ball in a playoff atmosphere would be a mistake in my opinion.  

 5. Tyler Wells

For much of the season, Wells looked like a lock for the postseason rotation and even a potential Game 1 starter. With a 3.18 ERA and a .93 WHIP through 18 outings, the young right-hander earned recognition from national news outlets as an all-star “snub” who had taken on the role of an ace in Baltimore. In three starts after the all-star break, however, Wells looked lost on the mound, surrendering nine walks and ten hits in just nine innings of work. That performance led him to be optioned to Bowie to enable him to get some much-needed rest and a chance to work through his struggles in a low-stress environment. 

At this point, I think it’s much more likely that Wells finds himself in the bullpen than the starting rotation come October. Letting him takeover in the middle innings, much like he did when Kyle Bradish got hurt against Texas in April, would allow him to make a significant impact without overexerting himself. Still, if he returns to the team with a fresh arm and shows signs of his early-season form, I’d feel comfortable giving Wells a chance to lead the team to victory in the fourth or fifth game of a seven-game series.  

 4. Dean Kremer

Despite a rocky start to his 2023 campaign, Kremer has been one of the most reliable options for Baltimore this season. He has taken on the role of a true workhorse, ranking second on the team in innings (138) and quality starts (12) in addition to leading the team in strikeouts (124). While there is some concern that he may run into similar problems as Wells as he has already surpassed his career high in innings, past performance indicates that Kremer gets better as the season wears on so he should be a viable rotation option come October. 

Furthermore, if the Orioles face Houston at any point in the postseason, Kremer should be the first name called upon. In three career starts against the Astros, he has posted a 1.14 ERA and a .761 WHIP while averaging almost eight innings per appearance, a ridiculous statline when you consider that Houston has been arguably the best team in baseball over the past few years. Given that they have made six straight American League Championship Series appearances, it feels almost inevitable that the Orioles will have to go through Houston at some point along their postseason journey. If Kremer can replicate his past success against Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and the rest of their loaded lineup, he could make it much more likely for Baltimore to prevail.  

 3. Jack Flaherty

Flaherty’s first three starts with the Orioles have seen him go from great to good to awful. He showed flashes of his 2019-self in his debut with the team against Toronto, but also reminded fans of why his cost was so low in his most recent outing against San Diego. Inconsistency is nothing new to the right-hander, but it is concerning to the fanbase of a team that is in the middle of a tightly-contested playoff race. When he’s on, he can shut down any team in the MLB, but when he’s off, his lack of control could put the team in an insurmountable hole within the first three innings. 

Still, I have to think the front office knew what they were getting when they parted with three prospects to acquire Flaherty prior to the trade deadline. He may not be a true ace, but he’s battle-tested, confident, and doesn’t get rattled easily, all qualities that would make him a desirable Game 2 or Game 3 starter. Furthermore, he has shown an ability to perform in the postseason on multiple occasions, posting a 3.52 ERA with a 5.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio in four playoff starts. I’d be shocked if Hyde doesn’t give him a chance to try to replicate those results this October. 

 2. Grayson Rodriguez

Call it recency bias, but I’m convinced that Grayson Rodriguez would give the Orioles a better chance to win a playoff game than just about anyone else on the roster. In six starts since returning from Norfolk, the rookie has pitched to a 3.03 ERA with a .981 WHIP and a 2.72 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Even more impressive has been his ability to limit the long ball as he has allowed just one home run over his last 35.2 innings after giving up 13 home runs in his first 45.1 innings with the Orioles.  

It’s also important to note that Rodriguez has already faced off against some of the top pitchers in baseball. Over the course of his first season in the majors, he has gone toe-to-toe with Jacob deGrom, Dylan Cease, Shane McLanahan, Gerrit Cole, Framber Valdez, and Yu Darvish among others. He has refused to back down regardless of the opponent, a quality that will serve him well when he is forced to face off against the league’s best arms in October. The only thing keeping him from taking the top spot on this list is some inconsistency, but I have no doubt he will be the Orioles’ Game 1 starter for years to come.  

 1. Kyle Bradish

While a case can be made for every pitcher on this list to start in the playoffs, Bradish is far and away the leading candidate to get the ball in Game 1. After a strong finish to his 2022 campaign, the second-year right-hander picked up right where he left off in 2023 and has never looked back, pitching to a team-leading 3.18 ERA with a 1.134 WHIP and a 3.35 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has shown a unique combination of consistency and occasional dominance, displaying all the makings of a true ace.  

The one knock on Bradish is that he has performed much better at Camden Yards, where home runs to left field are few and far between, than he has elsewhere. Opponents are slugging .396 against him when he pitches on the road as opposed to just .303 when he pitches at home, leading his road ERA (3.97) to be almost two full points higher than his home ERA (2.18). If the Orioles have to go on the road to start a series, they may be better off saving him for when they return to Camden Yards. That being said, in a win-or-go-home situation, I’d put my faith in Bradish regardless of the location.  

The post Ranking The Orioles Candidates To Start A Playoff Game appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

It’s true that Cowser has not impressed during his short stint in Baltimore. His .098/.254/.118 slash line leaves much to be desired and his 28.6% strikeout rate is significantly higher than the 23.3% rate he posted in the minor leagues. So, other than the natural growing pains associated with being promoted to the big leagues, what is behind Cowser’s slow start? 

First off, Cowser has been falling behind in the count far too frequently. Over a quarter of his plate appearances have began 0-2 and almost half of his plate appearances have began 1-2, indicating an inability for him to put himself in advantageous situations. For reference, Jordan Westburg, who was called up around the same but time has had more success so far, has fallen behind 0-2 in just 10% of his plate appearances and 1-2 in just 14% of his plate appearances. 

(EDIT FROM BSL: All Numbers here prior to Cowser going 1 for 1 yesterday in Toronto with his 2nd double.)

Similar to most batters, Cowser hits far better when ahead in the count than he does when behind. Of the plate appearances referenced above, just two have resulted in him reaching base (one on a walk and one on a hit). Similar trends could be seen during his time at Norfolk where he batted .386 with 11 extra base hits when ahead in the count and just .273 with 5 extra base hits when behind in the count. While those trends aren’t exactly surprising, they are relevant as it pertains to Cowser’s inability to reach base. 

Cowser is currently facing the same problem that Gunnar Henderson faced earlier this year: he is taking too many pitches. Of his 63 plate appearances, just 13 have seen him swing at the first pitch and just one has seen him put the first pitch in play. He hasn’t been much more aggressive on second pitches either, having put the ball in play just six times with an 0-1 or 1-0 count. 

When pitchers know that a batter is unlikely to swing at the first pitch, much less put it in play, they enter each at bat ready to attack. This leads to more first and second pitch strikes and more pitchers’ counts, leaving the batter at a significant disadvantage and unsure of what to expect. 

Henderson’s season turned around when he started entering the batter’s box in attack mode, ready to ambush the first pitch he saw. It forced pitchers to approach him more carefully, creating more hitters’ counts and more opportunities to drive the baseball.  Walks are great but hits are better, and until Cowser starts to jump on pitches early on in the count, he will continue to put himself in difficult situations.   

Moving on to when he has put the ball in play, one of the biggest problems for Cowser has been the number of ground balls. His ground ball rate of 55.9% is 11.2% above league average and his topped hit rate of 47.1% is 16.2% above league average, illustrating an inability to create productive launch angles. 

With the abolishment of the shift, high ground ball rates are less of a concern than they would have been in recent years. However, major league infielders can cover significantly more ground than most of the infielders Cowser played against in the minors, so picking up hits at a rate close to what posted with Norfolk will require him to either raise his exit velocity or raise his launch angle.  

Exit velocity hasn’t been a significant problem so far given that his average mark of 86 MPH is just a tick below the league average of 88.4 MPH. Consequently, an improvement in launch angle could yield significantly better results for Cowser. 

His current average launch angle sits at just 1.6 degrees, a massive departure from the league average of 12.2 degrees. Cowser is getting on top of everything, whether it’s off-speed pitches at the bottom of the zone or fastball up at the letters. If he can level out his swing and avoid driving so many pitches into the ground, he should see a steady improvement across his stat line, especially as it pertains to “barrels”, of which he currently has zero.  

In addition to his inability to get the ball in the air, Cowser has also struggled mightily against pitches on the outside half of the plate. Of his 28 whiffs, 16 have come on outside pitches and of his 13 “hard hit” balls of 95+ MPH, just one has come on an outside pitch. Overall, his average exit velocity on outside pitches is 10-15 MPH lower than his average exit velocity on pitches inside or down the middle. 

(Credit to Baseball Savant for Graphics) 

Remarkably, four of his five hits have also come on outside pitches, suggesting that there is plenty of potential for Cowser to be able to hit pitches in all parts of the zone. Unlocking that potential will be no easy task, however, as pitch location is one of the biggest differences between minor league baseball and major league baseball. 

In the minors, very few pitchers can hit their spots consistently to exploit the outside half of the plate. The majors are a different story, however, and succeeding at the highest level requires you to be able to make solid contact regardless of pitch location. If Cowser can begin to drive the ball to the opposite field with some consistency, it will not only improve his stats against outside pitches, but also earn him more opportunities to see inside pitches that he can turn on and drive into right.  

Fortunately, there are a couple of trends in his data that suggest some better results could be coming for Cowser. His line drive rate of 29.4% and hard-hit rate of 38.2% are both above league average, and his weak contact rate of 2.9% is below league average. His walk rate is also above league average at 14.3%, though I think that bringing that number down by being more aggressive may actually be better for his long-term development (much like it was for Henderson).  

It should also be noted that, while his expected stats are still not great, Cowser has been the victim of some bad luck. His expected batting average of .203 and expected slugging percentage of .250 are both more than twice his actual stats, indicating that a number of balls he has put in play should have fallen and simply didn’t. If Cowser is batting above .200, as the analytics suggest he should be, we are likely having a very different conversation about his performance up to this point.  

Finally, it’s important to remember that Cowser isn’t the only Orioles prospect who failed to produce upon his arrival in the major leagues. Adley Rutschman had just seven hits, two walks, and one hit-by-pitch through his first 54 plate appearances and Henderson was batting .170 with just seven extra base hits on May 13th of this year.Hend 

Cowser, like many others, has been prone to slow starts throughout his career. He batted just .214 through his first 14 games with Aberdeen in 2022 and went just three for his first 30 to kick off 2023 at Norfolk. If he’s still hitting below .150 at the end of August, then I’d say there’s some cause for concern. Until then, however, Cowser deserves to be given the time and opportunities necessary to adjust to the highest level of competition in the world.  

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