As MLB’s Winter Meetings draw to a close, the free agent and trade markets are finally starting to heat up. Wednesday saw a flurry of transactions take place as some of the top names on the market, including Juan Soto and Eduardo Rodriguez, found new homes.
The Orioles were one of the teams that made a significant move, signing closer Craig Kimbrel to a one-year, $13 million deal. By adding one of the top relievers on the market, Mike Elias took a step towards filling the Felix Bautista-sized hole in the roster. However, there remains another glaring problem in Baltimore: starting pitching.
While Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, and John Means can go toe-to-toe with any lineup in the big leagues, the team’s lack of depth when it comes to starters remains highly concerning. In what will be the second edition of my offseason wish list, I will take a look at what the Orioles can do to address those concerns and take themselves one step closer towards constructing a championship-caliber roster.
The starting pitching pursuit naturally begins with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell, both of whom will drastically improve whatever rotation they join. At just 25 years old, Yamamoto has won the Triple Crown and the Sawamura Award in three straight years, dominating competition across the NPB. His age and experience would slot perfectly into Baltimore’s young core, but projections claim he could earn north of $250 million, a price tag the Orioles will never be able to match.
Meanwhile, Snell, 31, might be more willing to sign a shorter deal with higher average annual value (AAV). However, after leading the NL in ERA and winning his second Cy Young this past season, this may be the left-handers best chance to cash in on a significant deal that he can ride out until the end of his career. Offering six or seven years of guaranteed money to a pitcher who may have already reached his peak seems irresponsible given the number of players already in the organization who are looking for contract extensions.
Jordan Montgomery tops the list of more attainable but still attractive options after having an excellent 2023 campaign. Many fans questioned why Elias and co. didn’t do more to acquire the left-hander during last summer’s trade deadline, so bringing him in during the offseason would certainly be cause for excitement.
Montgomery was nothing but dominant after being traded to Texas midseason, posting a 2.79 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP while striking out more than four times as many batters as he walked. His good form continued throughout the postseason as he allowed just 10 earned runs in 31 innings of work during the Rangers’ World Series run. If he can repeat that performance in 2024, he would be well worth his expected price tag of $20 to $25 million per year.
Furthermore, the fact that both Snell and Montgomery are left-handed makes them even more desirable given the dimensions of Camden Yards. The Orioles have done little to take advantage of “Mount Wall-timore” since its creation, relying primarily on right-handed pitchers over the past two years. Bringing in a top end left-hander would be a significant step towards doing so.
Marcus Stroman fits a similar mold to Montgomery in that he likely wouldn’t command the salary of an ace but has the potential to offer ace-like returns. A disastrous finish to 2023 saw his stock fall dramatically heading into the offseason, but a look back at his first half, in which he pitched to a 2.96 ERA en route to earning a spot in the All-Star game, shows what he can offer at his best. If he is willing to take a two or three-year deal with relatively high AAV, Stroman could be a perfect fit for Baltimore.
Two other names to keep an eye on are 30-year-old Shota Imanaga and 29-year-old Naoyuki Iwasawa. Both spent the better part of a decade dominating in Japan before finally being posted to MLB free agency this offseason. While they project to be middle of the rotation arms rather than frontline starters, they would likely command lower salaries and therefore may be worth taking a flier on.
If the Orioles opt to go the trade route rather than signing a free agent, Dylan Cease is the obvious choice. There’s been speculation surrounding whether or not the White Sox will move their ace for months, and based on their plethora of prospects within their farm system, the Orioles would be a perfect landing spot.
Cease was mediocre for much of 2023, pitching to a 4.58 ERA and a 1.418 WHIP. The year before, however, he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball, tossing 184 innings while posting a 2.20 ERA and 11.1 strikeouts-per-nine innings. It would likely cost four total prospects, with at least two coming out of the Orioles’ top ten, but it might be worth it to add a true ace to the rotation for the next two years.
Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow are also interesting candidates given that they each have just one year remaining on their current contracts. Burnes, 29, has been one of the best pitchers in the NL over the past three years thanks to a dynamic cutter that he throws over 55% of the time. Not only was he in the 85th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard hit rate last season, but he also showed tremendous durability, tossing more innings than anyone on the Orioles staff.
Glasnow’s strengths lie elsewhere as he has struggled to both stay on the field and limit hard contact throughout his career. However, he finished last season in the 95th percentile in whiff rate and 97th percentile in strikeout rate, illustrating an innate ability to create plenty of swings and misses. The Orioles’ pitching coaches could have a field day molding him into one of the best pitchers in the American League, but it seems far-fetched to imagine the Rays trading their ace to a division rival.
There are, of course, plenty of other pitchers the Orioles could go after that wouldn’t require them to surrender any of their top prospects. Shane Bieber and Alek Manoah are among the top names on that list after both endured struggles during the 2023 campaign. That being said, how much of a difference they would make is much less certain than many of the other names on the market.
Finally, it’s worth considering what it would take to acquire one of Seattle’s young arms. The Mariners have already shown a willingness to trade major league talent this offseason, sending Jarred Kelenic to Atlanta in what most pundits considered to be a salary dump. Whether or not they would also trade Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, or Bryce Miller, all of whom have multiple years of club control on their contracts, remains to be seen but all three have the potential to serve as mainstays in the Orioles rotation for the foreseeable future if acquired.
In an ideal world, the Orioles would acquire one of the bigger names on the market and supplement it with a smaller signing to improve their opening day rotation and their depth simultaneously. It might require them to be willing to part with Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser, or one of the many other top prospects in the system, but with limited playing time available on the major league roster, moving a young bat to bring in an arm makes plenty of sense. Regardless of the cost, adding at least one new starter is critical to putting the roster in a position where they can not only repeat as AL East champions, but also make a run in the postseason.
Luke Rollfinke is a student at Vanderbilt where he is pursuing a career in sports journalism. A recent graduate from the Friends School of Baltimore, Luke has spent his entire childhood in Charm City and is a devoted Orioles fan. In the past, he has written for SB Nation and has worked closely with Ravens columnist John Eisenberg. From nights at Camden Yards to Sunday afternoons watching NFL Redzone, Luke eats, sleeps, and breathes sports. He is excited to bring his perspective to BSL.