Ranking The Orioles Candidates To Start A Playoff Game

For the first time in almost a decade, the Orioles are on track to make a postseason appearance. While there’s still plenty of baseball to be played, Baltimore has been given a 98.5% chance to make the playoffs by Fangraphs and a 99.5% chance to make the playoffs by Baseball Reference, both of which place them higher than any other team in the American League.  

The biggest remaining question is how their starting pitching, which has hovered around league average for much of the season, will hold up in September and October. Between inconsistent veterans and impressive but inexperienced youngsters, choosing which pitchers to rely on when the lights are brightest will be a difficult task for Brandon Hyde and his crew. I decided to take my best shot at ranking the options, so here is the order in which I would put my faith in each of the Orioles starting pitchers if the playoffs began today. 

 7. Cole Irvin

After a miserable start to his Orioles career, Irvin has pitched admirably over the past few months and seems to have regained the confidence of the coaching staff. Since returning from Norfolk in early June, the left-hander has lowered his ERA from 10.38 to 4.92, his WHIP from 2.00 to 1.42, and his FIP from 5.25 to 4.04. Furthermore, in six starts during that span, he has allowed just seven earned runs, 25 hits and 5 walks in 28.2 innings of work. Those numbers are much more reminiscent of what the Orioles were looking for when they acquired him from Oakland than what he posted back in April. 

That being said, Irvin has a long way to go before he earns consideration as a potential playoff-game starter. He has yet to shut down a truly elite offense and his baseball savant page is littered with statistics that suggest he is below average when it comes to major league starters. Among those are his average exit velocity (38th percentile), expected ERA (4th percentile), barrel rate (10th percentile), and whiff rate (12th percentile). Unless he can drastically improve those numbers over the final two months, Irvin is more likely to be left off the postseason roster altogether than he is to get a starting nod when the season is on the line.  

 6. Kyle Gibson

Gibson is probably the hardest pitcher to place on this list because of the disparity between his stats and his value to the team. With a 4.89 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and advanced metrics that place him firmly below league average, it’s difficult to make a case that he would give the Orioles a better chance to win than the other guys on this list. However, he is the most-experienced and highest-paid pitcher on the staff, in addition to being one of just two Orioles starters who have pitched in a playoff game before.  

It took me a while but I settled on sixth for Gibson because, to me, his value to this team lies in his ability to eat innings and save the bullpen. He has completed six innings in 15 of his 25 starts and has failed to complete five innings just three times, showing an ability to battle regardless of whether he has his best stuff. Unfortunately, working late into games is much more valuable in September than it is in October, when off days become more frequent. The importance of having him in the dugout to mentor the younger arms as they make their postseason debuts cannot be overstated, but handing him the ball in a playoff atmosphere would be a mistake in my opinion.  

 5. Tyler Wells

For much of the season, Wells looked like a lock for the postseason rotation and even a potential Game 1 starter. With a 3.18 ERA and a .93 WHIP through 18 outings, the young right-hander earned recognition from national news outlets as an all-star “snub” who had taken on the role of an ace in Baltimore. In three starts after the all-star break, however, Wells looked lost on the mound, surrendering nine walks and ten hits in just nine innings of work. That performance led him to be optioned to Bowie to enable him to get some much-needed rest and a chance to work through his struggles in a low-stress environment. 

At this point, I think it’s much more likely that Wells finds himself in the bullpen than the starting rotation come October. Letting him takeover in the middle innings, much like he did when Kyle Bradish got hurt against Texas in April, would allow him to make a significant impact without overexerting himself. Still, if he returns to the team with a fresh arm and shows signs of his early-season form, I’d feel comfortable giving Wells a chance to lead the team to victory in the fourth or fifth game of a seven-game series.  

 4. Dean Kremer

Despite a rocky start to his 2023 campaign, Kremer has been one of the most reliable options for Baltimore this season. He has taken on the role of a true workhorse, ranking second on the team in innings (138) and quality starts (12) in addition to leading the team in strikeouts (124). While there is some concern that he may run into similar problems as Wells as he has already surpassed his career high in innings, past performance indicates that Kremer gets better as the season wears on so he should be a viable rotation option come October. 

Furthermore, if the Orioles face Houston at any point in the postseason, Kremer should be the first name called upon. In three career starts against the Astros, he has posted a 1.14 ERA and a .761 WHIP while averaging almost eight innings per appearance, a ridiculous statline when you consider that Houston has been arguably the best team in baseball over the past few years. Given that they have made six straight American League Championship Series appearances, it feels almost inevitable that the Orioles will have to go through Houston at some point along their postseason journey. If Kremer can replicate his past success against Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and the rest of their loaded lineup, he could make it much more likely for Baltimore to prevail.  

 3. Jack Flaherty

Flaherty’s first three starts with the Orioles have seen him go from great to good to awful. He showed flashes of his 2019-self in his debut with the team against Toronto, but also reminded fans of why his cost was so low in his most recent outing against San Diego. Inconsistency is nothing new to the right-hander, but it is concerning to the fanbase of a team that is in the middle of a tightly-contested playoff race. When he’s on, he can shut down any team in the MLB, but when he’s off, his lack of control could put the team in an insurmountable hole within the first three innings. 

Still, I have to think the front office knew what they were getting when they parted with three prospects to acquire Flaherty prior to the trade deadline. He may not be a true ace, but he’s battle-tested, confident, and doesn’t get rattled easily, all qualities that would make him a desirable Game 2 or Game 3 starter. Furthermore, he has shown an ability to perform in the postseason on multiple occasions, posting a 3.52 ERA with a 5.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio in four playoff starts. I’d be shocked if Hyde doesn’t give him a chance to try to replicate those results this October. 

 2. Grayson Rodriguez

Call it recency bias, but I’m convinced that Grayson Rodriguez would give the Orioles a better chance to win a playoff game than just about anyone else on the roster. In six starts since returning from Norfolk, the rookie has pitched to a 3.03 ERA with a .981 WHIP and a 2.72 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Even more impressive has been his ability to limit the long ball as he has allowed just one home run over his last 35.2 innings after giving up 13 home runs in his first 45.1 innings with the Orioles.  

It’s also important to note that Rodriguez has already faced off against some of the top pitchers in baseball. Over the course of his first season in the majors, he has gone toe-to-toe with Jacob deGrom, Dylan Cease, Shane McLanahan, Gerrit Cole, Framber Valdez, and Yu Darvish among others. He has refused to back down regardless of the opponent, a quality that will serve him well when he is forced to face off against the league’s best arms in October. The only thing keeping him from taking the top spot on this list is some inconsistency, but I have no doubt he will be the Orioles’ Game 1 starter for years to come.  

 1. Kyle Bradish

While a case can be made for every pitcher on this list to start in the playoffs, Bradish is far and away the leading candidate to get the ball in Game 1. After a strong finish to his 2022 campaign, the second-year right-hander picked up right where he left off in 2023 and has never looked back, pitching to a team-leading 3.18 ERA with a 1.134 WHIP and a 3.35 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has shown a unique combination of consistency and occasional dominance, displaying all the makings of a true ace.  

The one knock on Bradish is that he has performed much better at Camden Yards, where home runs to left field are few and far between, than he has elsewhere. Opponents are slugging .396 against him when he pitches on the road as opposed to just .303 when he pitches at home, leading his road ERA (3.97) to be almost two full points higher than his home ERA (2.18). If the Orioles have to go on the road to start a series, they may be better off saving him for when they return to Camden Yards. That being said, in a win-or-go-home situation, I’d put my faith in Bradish regardless of the location.