The Baltimore Orioles are one game away from advancing to the American League Championship series. With a current 2-0 lead over the Detroit Tigers, the Baltimore Orioles stand a great chance of advancing to the ALCS for the first time since 1997 but first they have to get past David Price.
Head on over to the BSL forums to discuss game 3 of the ALDS and how to face David Price.
David Price is coming off of his most impressive season yet, which is saying a lot. He lead the major leagues in innings pitched with 248.1 and strike outs with 271 while tying for fourth among pitchers in fWAR at +6.1 and K/BB at 7.13. And his K%-BB% of 23.1% ranked third behind only Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale.
David Price also tied for the league-lead with 34 games started and went at least six innings in 30 of those starts. One of Price’s rare sub-six inning outings came at the hands of your Baltimore Orioles back on May 8th when they tagged Price for three runs on nine hits in five innings of work.
David Price likes to work quickly. He never walks a batter, as evidence to his 12 outings of at least six innings an no walks allowed. Oh, and his 3.8% walk rate ranked sixth in the majors as well as his 1.38 BB/9 rate. David Price has not walked double-digit batters in a month since July of 2012.
David Price lives in the zone. The proof isn’t simply in the impressive walk rates but also in his zone percentage which was the ninth highest mark in the game. And getting ahead of hitters is his game. His 69.9% first-strike rate ranked third behind only Phil Hughes and Jordan Zimmerman and just ahead of Sandy Clayton Koufax Kershaw.
In most cases this could work to the Orioles’ advantage. Their hitters ranked 28th in walk rate at 6.5% as they exemplified the grip-it-and-rip method to hitting. Orioles’ hitters owned the sixth highest swing rate in the game and the ninth highest zone-swing rate. If the pitch was close enough to drive they were swinging.
The bad news for the Orioles is that David Price, despite staying heavily in the zone with his pitches, still missed a large number of bats in the zone. Opposing hitters only managed an 84.2% zone-contact-rate which was the ninth lowest mark in the game behind such pitchers as Kersahw, Sale, and teammate Max Scherzer.
David Price throws a heavy mix of pitches. Here is his 2014 breakdown of every pitch in every count (h/t to Brooks Baseball):
David Price will throw any pitch in any count to any hitter. And right-handed batter beware: if David Price gets behind you are you more likely to get his change-up than at any other moment. Lefties will likely see the sinker/two-seamer often and in any count.
The key to attacking David Price is to get to him early. Here is a look at hitter’s outcomes on the first pitch of the at-bat versus price in 2014:
And those numbers add up to a .375 batting average and .640 slugging percentage including nine home runs on first-pitches. Sure, there is still a chance the batter misses and falls behind but in 2014 hitter who swung at the first pitch finished with a .287/.296/.480 triple-slash line opposed to the .219/.261/.329 mark for those who took the first David Price pitch.
The Orioles like to attack, especially against the fastball as evidence by them leading the league by a long shot at +80.3 runs against the fastball, and David Price, who has success in any count, does show that if you are going to get to him you have to do it very very early in the count. And if David Price throws a first-pitch fastball the Orioles have to hack. It’s the best way to beat David Price and reach the ALCS for the first time in almost two decades.
-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing at The Florida Post and you can follow him on twitter: @FigureFilbert
Jonathan C. Mitchell is the co-founder and editor-in-chief of The Florida Post and has had articles featured on ESPN and FanGraphs, among others. He is a former contributor to DRaysBay and Marlins Daily (formerly part of ESPN’s SweetSpot Network) and currently resides in Tampa with his beautiful wife and daughter. In his spare time you are likely to catch him at a local coffee roaster talking about sports, espresso, or single-origin coffees.