Baltimore Orioles – From 68 Wins to World Championship Contention within 3 years

How do the Orioles go from 68 Wins to World Championship Contention within 3 years?

To me, I had believed the start of that was having a 2009 team that was capable of winning 85 games… with realistic aspirations of 2010 contention.The O’s have decided to continue to operate more methodically, with the idea of hoping to contend in 2011…

At this point, 2009 is again going to be about giving as much time as possible to the players that can comprise your future core.

This has to change some in 2010. While you will still be working youth into the rotation, and everyday lineup at that time… the organization is going to have start holding theirselves accountable for improvement.

Without that accountability, I fear that (contention) is going to remain a far-off goal, that is never realized… that the brand will continue to dwindle, the O’s will continue to become more irrelevant, and the O’s ability to ascend will be further mitigated.

As an organization, it is clear whom you value internally, and who you want to build around… if they are to build a legitimate contender by 2011, it will be through the continued maturation of Markakis, Jones, and Wieters… potentially Reimold, Snyder, and Rowell… and our young pitching highlighted through Matusz, Tillman, and Arrieta…

Since you did not (at least have not) augmented this core, this off-season… you have to give them as much experience as possible during 2009.

Of course, you will have to continue to build-up the Scouting and Player Development departments to allow for sustained contention.

The O’s are a sleeping giant, that is habitually caught between hitting the snooze button, and deciding if they should actually wake-up.

This is what the Franchise has going for it, during the next 3 years:
A) Oriole Park @ Camden Yards…
B) One of the best RF’s in baseball….
C) One of the best defensive CF’s in baseball, with pop…
D) One of the best Catcher’s in baseball…
E) Depth in quality arms with Guthrie, Olson, Albers, Ray, Johnson, Liz, Penn, Bergesen, Hernandez, Tillman, Berken, Arrieta, Matusz, Patton, Spoone, Erbe, Butler etc.
F) Upcoming payroll flexibility.
G) Cheap productive bats at DH and LF with Scott and Reimold.

Even if you projected that prior to Opening Day, that Markakis was signed to a 6yr $85M extension, and that Roberts was signed to a 3yr $39M extension… the payroll flexibility of the upcoming rosters is still apparent.

Based on existing contacts, I would project the 2009 Total Player Expenditures at $84M (inclusive of a $5.5M 2009 buyout on Baez + $6.2M on Jay Gibbons) I would project the 2010 Team Salary at the limited amount $50.3 Million, rising to a ballpark amount of $68.3M for 2011. Considering the O’s had a Team Salary of over $90M in 2007, it should be realistic to believe we have the ability to add significant salary for each of the next 3 seasons…. even more so if you believe the continued growth of MASN (which significant player acquisition would help with) will provide larger and larger revenue streams to the Orioles. I think if you plot out the internal roster possibilities for the next 3 years, there are legitimate reasons for optimism… but there are still more questions then answers…you still have to augment your internal depth.

I am not comfortable with the idea of waiting until 2011 for the possibility of contending… I want us to go into 2010, feeling that contention can occur.

I am not sure the Front Office believes that is possible, or has that as their own internal priority.

MacPhail was quoted in The Baltimore Sun recently, stating: “I think I’ve been pretty clear that we don’t look at free agency as a panacea. We’re not going to be able to buy our way out. We need to increase our foundation of talent.”

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/b…,7087365.story

Obviously, nobody disagrees with this assertion. To be a perennial contender, the O’s are going to have to build a system capable of producing a player or two per season that can help the Major League team. There should be no moves made that damage the long-range development of the system.

However, ignoring the Major League team, can not be allowed either. To me, this is an extremely important off-season for the Baltimore Orioles.

It started with the Organizational meetings held in early-October where MacPhail and the rest of the Baseball Operations department reviewed every player in the system, and discussed their off-season agenda. It continued with the General Manager meetings in Dana Point, Calif, and Winter Meetings held in Las Vegas. How are we going to use the next 6 weeks prior to Pitchers and Catchers reporting?

What I want to see accomplished, and where I think we are has not changed:

1) Extension to Markakis signed… somewhere between 6 and 8 yrs and $80-$100M.

2) Extension offers to Roberts of 3yrs $39M.

3) I would pursue Ching-Lung Hu from LA… I figure with Furcal resigning with LA, and the Dodgers valuing DeJesus as the better prospect… Hu is available… Hu had a pretty rough 2008 season… his OPS was just over 700 in the PCL… on the other-hand, he is known as an exceptional defensive SS, that will turn 25 next February, and had an OPS of 842 in the PCL in 2007. Based on him being expendable, I would offer a straight-up deal of Erbe… A talented quality arm, that could be a rotation option by year end 2009… for a position prospect. Izturis can hold down the position in 2009, and Hu can play everyday in Norfolk and compete for the job in 2010.

Re Hu
2005 – 21 years old, High A 777 OPS
2006 – 22 years old, Double A 666 OPS
2007 AA – 329 avg, 325 at-bats, 30 doubles, 5 triples, 6homers, 34 rbi, 380 obp, 508 slugging, 887 OPS
2007 AAA – 318 avg, 192 at-bats, 10 doubles, 1 triple, 8 homers, 28 rbi, 337 obp, 505 slugging, 842 OPS
2008 AAA – 295 avg, 156 at-bats, 5 doubles, 3 triples, 1 homer, 15 rbi, 323 obp, 385 slugging, 708 OPS

Baseball America Dodgers Top Prospects 2008

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/265295.html

– 3rd on the Top 10 list
– Top Defensive Inf

Baseball Prospectus Dodgers Top Prospects 2008

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7094

– 3rd on the Top 10 list

Baseball Hub Top 100 Prospects to Start 2008

http://www.thebaseballhub.com/prospects/2008-top-100-prospects

– 34th overall John Sickles Dodgers Top Prospects 2008

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2007/12/24/17207/117

– 4th, B Grade

His rough 2008 tarnishes his star, but his ratings going into this year show his promise… far better then anything in the O’s system, and probably the most realistic to acquire.

4) It is clear that the O’s will not pursue Sheets, or Dunn and I am still disappointed by that. While there are logical concerns about Sheets’ injury history, the facts remain he has avg 150 innings the last 4 years, and pitched 200 innings in 2008. His injury concerns are the reason why he has remained on the market, and why you could possibly obtain him.

Tom Tango’s salary scale projects Sheets should get a 4 year deal for around $60M. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar…en-sheets-get/ To me, the risk is more in the years vs the dollars… I would offer 3yrs and $45M…. More then he figures to get elsewhere, but you have to be realistic to where you are… it would take a premium for Sheets to come to Baltimore.

Dunn turns 30 next November… he has a career .899 OPS, and 5 straight years of 40 homers… Some people believe he has ‘old-man’ skills…. Pointing to the high-level of k’s, and low batting avg… while I think that is a reasonable concern, I see little reason to believe he will not be productive over the next 4 years, and continue to produce high slugging and on-base percentages.

I think there would be a lot of value in a 4 year $60M deal for Dunn, making him the 1st baseman… People argue he is a poor defensive player, but that reputation mainly exists from his time in LF… for his career he has played 127 games at 1st base…. He would have to be an extreme butcher at first to limit the gains from his bat.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/D/adam-dunn.shtml

Out of Sheets and Dunn, I do believe Dunn is the player that would be easier for the O’s to acquire.

5) I think the O’s should be offering Jones, and Wieters Longoria type extensions immediately… it is only going to cost us more later, might as well accomplish it now.

6) After 2009, you have lost Huff, Mora, Walker, Baez, and Gibbons contract from the roster… which brings about a great deal of financial flexibility.

You have to be thinking about your 2010 Infield now… Are you going to move Snyder to 3rd this Spring? Are you going to let him reach the Majors this August, if he has produced an 800+ OPS at Bowie?

Tampa won 97 games in 2008….. a year after winning 66 games. Not exactly a surprise to anyone that had been paying attention to their growing collection of young-talent… but still a 31 game swing. For the O’s 2009 season, I had been asking for the O’s to go from 68 wins to 85…a 17 game swing, to just outside contention.

At this point, that will not be possible… though, I do think we are improved… and as comprised a likely 72-75 win team in 2009.

I would like to enter 2010 with the following team

Guthrie, Olson, Uehara, Tillman, Matusz
Ray
Johnson
Albers
Patton
Hernandez
Liz
Penn

*Sherrill traded, Walker traded or not brought-back..
Roberts 2nd
Jones CF
Markakis RF
Dunn 1st
Wieters C
Reimold LF
Scott DH
Snyder 3rd
Hu SS

Izturis, Montanez, Salazar, Backup Catcher

That team would likely still have to many questions to legitimately contend, but it would be within the realm of possibility.

The rotation would have promise, and the bullpen would be outstanding. Jones would be in his 3rd full-year, and Wieters and Reimold their 2nd.

That team is my vision for 2010… we will see what MacPhail pictures.

Regardless of the names on the back of the jersey, my basic point is that 2010 is the year I expect the Orioles to start demanding on-field improvement.