After sitting out in September due to a back injury, J.J. Hardy has had nothing but good news. He hit .300/.417/.600 with a home run in the ALDS, is heading to the ALCS, and now there is news that the Orioles have given J.J. Hardy a three-year extension to stay in Baltimore. The deal is worth $40M with a vesting option for a fourth year.
Head on over to the BSL forums to join the J.J. Hardy extension discussion.
Hardy was slated to be the best shortstop on the market this winter -no, Hanley Ramirez is not a shortstop- and would have likely commanded much more than the three-year deal he received. How much exactly? Who knows?
Jhonny Peralta received a four-year deal worth $60M after serving a suspension for PEDs but he did not have draft pick compensation tied to him, like Hardy will. Stephen Drew did have draft pick compensation tied to him and he did not get the multi year deal he held out for. This is likely why Hardy “settled” for this deal.
Hardy will be playing in his age 32-34 seasons and is coming off of a four-year stint with the Orioles where he was worth an average of 3.5 fWAR and 3.7 rWAR each year and never posted a UZR lower than +13.3 in any of the four seasons, including a career high +20.4 UZR this season.
Hardy, although very consistent in his time with the Orioles, comes with some baggage in the form of back problems. He experienced lower back spasms back in April which led him to miss a handful of games. In August of last season he missed two games with the same issue.
The SS also missed five games in May of 2009 due to lower back spasms, one game in April of 2009 with mid back tightness, three games in June of 2007 with lower back soreness, and six days in Milwaukee Brewers camp back in March of 2006 with, you guessed it, lower back spasms.
As someone with back problems, who is literally only 12 days older than Hardy, these are not problems that go away as you age. But his training regimen and doctors are much better than mine, so what do I know?
The 2x All-Star’s bat also saw a bit of a decline this season as he hit only 9 home runs after averaging more than 25 home runs per season over his first three seasons with the Orioles.
Hardy’s 5.1% walk rate, 18.3% strikeout rate, and .104 ISO were also career worsts while he posted the highest BABIP of his career at .317, which is 40 points higher than his career mark coming into the season. When he came back from his back injury he only hit .143/.208/.184 in 53 plate appearances to finish out the season.
Still, though, Hardy’s value is in his glove, and pairing it with possibly the best defensive third baseman in the game gives the Orioles pitchers plenty of confidence when a ground ball is hit to the left side.
The Orioles’ shortstop-of-the-future was not in their system, at least not in High-A or above. They literally have none in Triple-A. They have some fodder in Double-A. Adrian Marin, who has a glove, was very disappointing in High-A, posting an abysmal .271 OBP.
Even with the declining bat, Hardy and his glove conservatively are likely worth an average of 2.5 WAR per season over this deal and locking him up also leaves the division rival New York Yankees scrambling even harder to find their Derek Jeter replacement. Only time will tell but it looks like a smart move on both ends.
-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing at The Florida Post and you can follow him on twitter: @FigureFilbert
Jonathan C. Mitchell is the co-founder and editor-in-chief of The Florida Post and has had articles featured on ESPN and FanGraphs, among others. He is a former contributor to DRaysBay and Marlins Daily (formerly part of ESPN’s SweetSpot Network) and currently resides in Tampa with his beautiful wife and daughter. In his spare time you are likely to catch him at a local coffee roaster talking about sports, espresso, or single-origin coffees.