Last week, I highlighted four hitting prospects in the Baltimore Orioles system who were going above and beyond 2022 expectations and taking a big step forward this season. Since then, two players highlighted in that piece have been promoted (Gunnar Henderson and Isaac Bellony), and César Prieto has started to flex his unexpected power in Double-A as he settles in nicely against more advanced competition.

I would say it’s time to sprinkle some of that good luck magic upon the pitching prospects I’m going to highlight here, but it appears that the talented group of pitching coaches in this system have already done so.

The biggest criticisms of the Orioles farm system always focus on the pitching talent, more specifically the lack of depth, which I wholeheartedly disagree with, but the narrative pushed by national outlets who haven’t watch these arms in years (or ever) will dominate. It’s only going to make watching the success of this group that much sweeter.

Just as I did with the hitters, here are four Orioles pitching prospects who are exceeding my expectations in 2022 and emerging as either legitimate pitching prospects, or at least notable names to keep a closer eye on as they continue on their player development journey.

Bowie RHP Noah Denoyer

There were 1,217 players selected in the 2019 Major League Baseball draft. Noah Denoyer was not one of them. After signing with the Orioles after the draft as a free agent, Denoyer logged four innings in the GCL, had one quick note in a Roch Kubatko piece about showing some good velo in Sarasota, and that was it. Denoyer was just another arm in rookie ball with heavy odds stacked against him. He continues to fly completely under the radar, but it’s only a matter of time before that changes.

After a canceled 2020 season, Denoyer didn’t get a chance to pitch across a full season until last year where he made 20 appearances between Delmarva and Aberdeen, posting a combined 2.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and an 81/30 K/BB mark across 71.2 IP. The one issue that seemed to hold Denoyer back was the walks. He allowed 22 free passes in his first two months of action (nine starts), but then came the month of July. He walked three in a four inning start against Lynchburg on July 3rd, then followed that outing up with five-straight starts where he combined to walk zero batters (23.1 IP). That stretch led to a promotion to Aberdeen to close out the season.

Now with Bowie, Denoyer has made six appearances with the Baysox, posting a 1.93 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, a .152 average against, and a 31/5 K/BB mark. With Aberdeen to start the season, Denoyer’s walk rate hovered around 10 percent (what he allowed in Delmarva and Aberdeen last season), but he’s slashed that rate to just six percent in Double-A, while seeing his strikeout rate jump to a career high 37 percent.

Armed with a four-pitch mix that includes a fastball which he can run up to 96 mph and a big, breaking curveball, Denoyer still has a good amount of projection left when it comes to his stuff (at 24 years of age and listed at 6’5” and 225 pounds he’s maxed out physically). He’s not a “fully baked” arm as he shows four different pitches with potential. Noah Denoyer has continued to develop into a legitimate pitching prospect in this organization and as he continues to refine his repertoire, could be in the mix for a starting rotation spot, but like his fellow Bowie teammate Ryan Watson who has also emerged as a name to watch, I’m not exactly sure where the organization believes they may work best, either as a potential rotation piece or out of the bullpen. Denoyer has worked exclusively out of the bullpen in 3-4 inning stints, so while he may not be on a starter’s track at the moment, the fact that a UDFA out of the JUCO ranks is now having this level of success in his second full-season of pro ball and at the Double-A level is very impressive.

Aberdeen RHP Carlos Tavera

I hear this critique a lot…”the Orioles don’t draft pitchers.” No, they just don’t spend early round draft picks on pitchers. They draft plenty of pitchers, many of whom are quickly working their way through the upper level of the minor leagues as relief options.

But there are a slew of fast-rising starting pitching prospects down in Aberdeen making big names for themselves, including 2021 5th round pick out of UT-San Antonio, RHP Carlos Tavera.

Tavera has made 10 starts with Aberdeen, putting together a 3.73 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a .188 average against in 41 IP. The biggest thing that stands out with Tavera is his K/BB numbers. He’s fanned 52 hitters while walking 18, good for a 31.5 percent strikeout rate and 10.7 percent walk rate. The walk number may be a tick higher than what you would like to see, but coming into the 2022 season, the biggest question facing Tavera was whether or not he would throw enough strikes this year and keep the walks down. A third of the way through the season, he’s doing just that. In fact, Orioles Director of Player Developmenet Matt Blood mentioned before the season that as long as Tavera could limit the walks, the organization viewed him as a rotation piece.

Tavera recently highlighted his changeup as the pitch that he relied on the most during a recent roll (one of the best changeups you will see in the entire system), racking up strikeouts with the pitch against lefties and righties. His fastball can touch 96 and it appears that he’s holding a higher velo than his 91 mph from college (now 93-94). If he can hold that increased velo with his fastball and locate the slider, Tavera will be a starting pitching prospect who will quickly rocket up the prospect lists at the end of the year. Coming out the draft, MLB Pipeline said Tavera’s slider was his best pitch. It’s probably his third best pitch now. A good amount of projection here.

*Update*: I finished writing this before I saw that Carlos Tavera was pitching Tuesday night for Aberdeen. I should have waited. Tavera went 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 10 K. I’m normally one to strongly believe in slow-playing prospects along, but challenging Tavera in Bowie sometime soon may not be a bad idea. Also, ignore those velo readings from the tweet below. Whatever you see, add 5-6 mph. This was confirmed with someone from the organization.

Aberdeen RHP Justin Armbruester

Justin Armbruester, like all four names I’m highlighting here, are really good case studies to follow to get an idea of what this Orioles player development system can do with pitchers. Can you take less-heralded arms with a few tools and turn them into successful arms? It’s been one of the more intriguing storylines to follow in 2022.

A 12th round pick out of New Mexico, Armbruester has already added 2-3 mph to his fastball that now routinely sits 93-94 and I’ve seen touch 96 multiple times. There’s some deception and hitch in his delivery that can make it more difficult for hitters to pick up the ball early and he’s shown a good ability to pound the strikezone and produce whiffs instead of relying on getting inexperienced hitters to chase junk.

Now 11 starts into his season, Armbruester is 2-0 with a 3.62 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, .203 BAA, and a very impressive 61/15 K/BB.

The fastball is a high-spin pitch that he can locate well in the top of the zone to produce swings and misses and his slider is one of his secondaries that flashes potential. There’s still plenty of development to go with Armbruester but the tools are there to continue to work as a starter as he moves up the ladder and if he can develop one of his secondaries, like the slider, into a real wipe-out pitch, there’s potential as a late-inning, high-powered bullpen arm. In the meantime, he’s put himself on the map with a great start to his 2022 season and has established a pretty notable foundation to build on.

Delmarva RHP Juan De Los Santos

My only exposure to Juan De Los Santos coming into the season was a handful of Instagram videos, easy bullpens in shorts and a t-shirt from his home in the Dominican. Anyone can make themselves look good in the situation, obviously, but the 6’3”/250 pound righty drew my attention as someone to watch when Delmarva’s season began. I was right.

The now 20-year-old (turned 20 on May 25th) has made 11 appearances with the Shorebirds (10 starts) and has pitched to a 3.62 ERA and 1.31 WHIP across his 49.2 IP. Control has been an issue at times for De Los Santos, but then he comes out with an outing like he had last week, striking out 10 and walking none across six innings with one earned run allowed.

But it’s critically important to realize what’s going on in Delmarva this season. There’s no more short-season ball and we’re seeing a team full of 18-20 year olds who are making not just big jumps in terms of baseball, but making a major life adjustment from life in their native countries to life in Salisbury, Maryland. My co-hosts at On The Verge just sat down with Sam Jellinek, the voice of the Shorebirds, this week and Sam did a fantastic job of putting all of this into context. I strongly encourage you to take a listen.

De Los Santos has shown quality stuff early on in 2022 and he’s sure to take some lumps as the season progresses. Early on in the year he was getting by with throwing mainly fastballs to overpower Low-A hitters (around 75% fastball to be somewhat exact). Now that he’s settled into a routine and has shown himself that he can do deep into an outing and dominate throughout, what can he do with his slider and changeup? Can he continue to refine his control? He’s still very raw, but was someone no one was talking about coming into the season. Now, he’s a key rotation piece in Delmarva who is making some early waves.

There are a few other names who deserve some credit here as well, in terms of exceeding expectations. Zach Peek didn’t get much time to settle into Double-A before he was on the IL for about a month, but he’s now thrown 13 innings in June, allowing one run with two walks and 12 strikeouts. Ignacio Feliz opened a lot of eyes in Delmarva last season, but was rocked after being promoted to High-A. He’s back with Aberdeen this season and has struck out 71 hitters in 41.2 IP with a 3.67 ERA (that includes one clunker where he gave up 8 ER in 1.2 IP). Grayson Rodriguez (80) is the only Orioles minor league arm with more strikeouts.

Peter Van Loon (Aberdeen) hasn’t really exceeded my expectations (I’m going to say that you won’t find very many people who were higher on Van Loon coming into the season) but he’s someone else that is rarely talked about. He’s 6-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 49 K in 39 IP this season. He’s made five starts this season but his high-powered repertoire would look really good out of the bullpen. Lastly, Carter Baumler technically fits here, since no one really knew what to expect in his return after not pitching regularly since his 2019 high school season. Baumler is locating his fastball well and showing one of the more beautiful curveballs in the system, logging nine scoreless innings to begin his pro career (15 K/4 BB).

One common thing about every single pitcher listed here is that they don’t come from high-profile backgrounds, notable SEC programs, or have the early-round draft pick connected to their name. Will Noah Denoyer or Justin Armbruester become elite-level starters in the big leagues? The odds are certainly stacked against them, but that’s what the player development process is for.  The Orioles are showing that they can find pitching talent from the depths of the college ranks and turn late-round draft picks into viable pitching options. And you never know…maybe a guy like Carlos Tavera does end up making himself a home in the starting rotation. He’s certainly pitching like that could be the case right now.

Nick Stevens
Nick Stevens

Orioles Analyst

A former high school teacher and coach in the mountains of Virginia, Nick Stevens has been writing about the Baltimore Orioles and their minor league system for five years. When he isn’t at a minor league stadium, he’s enjoying a Wizards game or supporting his alma mater, James Madison University. Co-Host of The Verge.

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