Baltimore Orioles Top 50 Prospects August 2022

The draft is over, the trade deadline has passed, and we’ve spent the last four months watching hundreds of Orioles minor league games, meaning it’s the perfect time to update our public rankings (monthly tweaks are made and posted in Patreon).

As usual, final rankings are based on all three of us at On The Verge submitting our own personal lists and then averaging them together. You can listen to our breakdown of the list in podcast form here.

1) SS Gunnar Henderson: It’s hard to find another prospect in baseball who has seen their stock rise as high as Henderson’s has this season. He made it to Triple-A before his 21st birthday after appearing in just 47 games with Bowie in 2022, walking more than he struck out (38 K/41 BB) and putting up an OPS of 1.025 and wRC+ of 175. After moving up to Norfolk, Henderson has matched his Double-A home run total in nearly 50 fewer at-bats, has maintained an OBP of over .400, and has seen the strikeouts rise a bit, but still lower than at any stop he made in 2021 by a significant margin. Whether he sticks at short or moves to third, he’s going to be a plus-defender. He has not had one single at-bat in 2022 against a pitcher younger than him.

2) RHP Grayson Rodriguez: Rodriguez has firmly established himself as the top pitching prospect in baseball, with a five pitch repertoire and plus-command. After striking out 161 batters in 103 IP across two levels in 2021 (2.36 ERA/0.83 WHIP), Rodriguez found yet another gear in 2022 while excelling in Triple-A before an unfortunate injury sidelined him on June 1. All signs point to Rodriguez being a future ace with the organization. Ideally, he’s able to get back on the mound before the end of the season and is in the major league starting rotation on Opening Day 2023.

3) SS Jackson Holliday: The Orioles didn’t play any financial tetris when it came to their 1.1 pick in the 2022 draft, giving Holliday the largest signing bonus ever for a high schooler. A potential five-tool player, the left-handed hitting shortstop brings with him an extremely high ceiling and the potential to be a power-hitting All-Star in the middle of a big league lineup for a long time. After watching Gunnar Henderson’s development over the last two years, it’s easy to dream on what the Orioles will be able to do with Holliday’s already advanced skill set. His full-season debut will likely be the most anticipated storyline entering 2023.

4) LHP DL Hall: The good news with Hall is that he’s remained healthy all season, his stuff is still electric, and more specificially, his secondary offerings have been impressive. He entered the midseason break on one of the more dominant stretches you will see, allowing three earned runs across 21.2 IP with 42 strikeouts and 8 walks. The evaluation remains the same, Hall’s ceiling is a rotation piece as one of the hardest throwing lefties in baseball and there’s still a chance that he becomes a high-leverage reliever who can rely on his upper-90s fastball and plus-breaking stuff. Either way, he has the stuff to be an impact arm in the big leagues in the very near future.

5) OF Colton Cowser: A little patience and a few tweaks have gone a long way in Cowser’s development this season. He began the year in High-A where he hit just .258 with a 28% strikeout rate and struggled against lefties, but the Orioles promoted him to Double-A and he’s shown that it was the right move at the right time. The strikeouts have ticked down in AA while his walk rate has remained at 16%, the doubles are turning into home runs, and he’s played a fine CF with a series of highlight reel catches already. Cowser commands the strikezone with one of the lowest swinging-strike rates in the organization and we’re now seeing the advanced hit tool that made him an attractive draft prospect. All arrows are pointing up as his play possibly leads to a trip to Norfolk before the end of the summer.

6) 3B Coby Mayo: Now in Double-A at the age of 20, Mayo combines his immense raw power with an advanced approach at the plate and an absolute cannon for an arm at third base. While being 2.5 years younger than his peers in High-A and playing in an Aberdeen environment that isn’t always very fun for hitters, Mayo hit 13 home runs and put up underlying metrics that proved he was ready for a new challenge after just 65 games. Like Henderson, Mayo’s entire season (outside of six PA) has come against older competition. Back spasms have limited his time in Bowie but he will have the opportunity to settle in at the Double-A level over the final six weeks of the season, all while not turning 21 until December.

7) SS Jordan Westburg: Tapping into even more power this season, Westburg brings a quick, compact swing to the box and produces impressive exit velos that have led to more over the fence power as he hits the ball in the air more (16 HR at the time of this writing between AA/AAA after hitting 15 across three levels last year). Defensively, Westburg is one of the more sound defenders in the organization with the ability to play second, third, or short. When you combine his athleticism, defensive abilities, and power the organization has been able to extract, Westburg projects as a 20+ home run hitter in the majors who can stick on the left side of the infield.

8) OF Kyle Stowers: With all the excitement Henderson and Westburg have brought to Norfolk, Stowers’ big year has quietly gone under the radar (up until now as the demands for his call-up intensify). Producing 47 extra-base hits in his first 86 games this season and slashing his strikeout rate by nearly 10% compared to last year, Stowers has done everything we were hoping we would see from him entering the season- avoid extended slumps, cut down the strikeouts, keep the line-drive/fly ball rates trending in the right direction, turn Harbor Park into a launching pad. All checks. Stowers should be in the big leagues for good well before the end of the season.

9) OF Heston Kjerstad: He’s finally back on the field playing regularly and that’s the biggest win. Kjerstad put up video game numbers in a short stint with Delmarva and now finds himself adjusting to High-A and a not-so friendly ballpark. Without having much to go off of since his two-year layoff between playing competitive baseball, we’re keeping him in the same range we’ve had him in, hoping he can still develop into a power-hitting right fielder who holds down a middle of the order spot with the bat.

10) OF Dylan Beavers: The Orioles grabbed the 6’4” power-hitting lefty out of Cal with the 33rd overall pick in the 2022 draft and he was a popular pick with many within the industry. His power is the carrying tool right now but if the organization is able to tweak a few things and the hit tool develops, Beavers projects as a 30+ home run hitting corner outfield with above-average speed. Similar to many recent later round draft picks, Beavers has a lot of impressive pieces to his makeup, it will just be up to the player development process to put the pieces together. If they can, the ceiling is a fun one to dream on.

11) RHP Seth Johnson: Acquired from Tampa Bay as part of the Trey Mancini trade this year, fans likely won’t get to see Johnson pitch until 2024 due to his Tommy John surgery in early August, but there’s a lot to like about this pickup for the Orioles. Orginally a shortstop in college, Johnson is still fairly raw on the mound but the first sign that there’s something there is when the Rays drafted him 40th overall in 2019 and gave him $1.7 million. Armed with an upper-90s fastball, slider, curve, and in progress changeup, Johnson’s ceiling is a mid-rotation starter with a floor of a bullpen arm who utilizes his high velo fastball and elite slider.

12) 2B Connor Norby: Lauded for his hit tool coming out of the draft in 2021, Norby has shown big-time bat speed as a pro and a keen eye at the plate, becoming a prime example of what the Orioles mean when they preach making good swing decisions. As impressive as that is, Norby’s power has been even more eye-opening, highlighted by a 444-foot home run recently, part of double-digit home run barrage this season from the former ECU Pirate. He may not have the defensive versatility that others like Terrin Vavra and César Prieto do (although he has seen some time in LF this season) but Norby does have the tools to be an everyday second baseman in the big leagues who hits around 20 home runs per season. The arrow is pointing up. Way up.

13) 2B Terrin Vavra: Vavra has since made his big league debut with the Orioles so he likely won’t be on this list for too much longer, but in a very small MLB sample, Vavra is showing fans exactly what he was so good at doing in the minors- take smart at-bats, work deep counts, get on base. We’ve always profiled him as a big league utility player who can play second base and the outfield and it seems as if that’s the path the Orioles have him on already, which is fine. Vavra is going to be a pesky big leaguer for a very long time.

14) 2B César Prieto: First, I have to link to a recent documentary put out by SI.com that followed Prieto’s defection from Cuba. If you haven’t watched these three short videos, I strongly encourage you to do so. Prieto came to the Orioles as one of the more prolific Cuban hitters of all-time, but surprised everyone by hitting seven home runs in 25 games for Aberdeen to begin his career in the States. The power hasn’t been there since moving up to Bowie but Prieto continues to be a dependable contact hitter who may not walk much at all, but he’s rarely going to strike out. With Norby taking over second base duties and Joey Ortiz holding down short, Prieto has been primarily a third baseman with Bowie where he’s showing a stronger arm and more fluid movements as the season has progressed. Will be interesting to see which direction he goes at this point, whether it’s rising through the system as a high-contact hitter or do the Orioles try and tap into more of that power he showed in Aberdeen.

15) LHP Drew Rom: Rom’s report is largely rinse and repeat. He moves up a level, continues to be 2-3 years younger than his peers, sees the strikeouts go up, and the walks stay consistently on the lower side. Evaluators have been hesitant to push him up rankings because of his low-90s fastball velo, but the velo is up, his breaking balls continue to miss a high number of at-bats at the Double-A level, and he’s clearly right there on the verge of a breakthrough that will take him to the next level. An extended non-injury IL stint right as the weather was starting to warm and he was starting to ramp up greatly delayed him in getting it going this season, but Rom has been more effective as the season has progressed.

16) OF Hudson Haskin: Much like his debut season last year, Haskin is having a solid season, but now he’s doing so at the Double-A level. The “funky” swing that some thought would hold him back certainly hasn’t. Haskin has seen his ISO jump nearly 100 points from his tenure in High-A last year, logging 11 home runs, 18 doubles, and 3 triples in 75 games, while seeing an OPS jump of about 70 points (.850 as of August 5th). He’s got the athleticism and arm to stick in centerfield and the uptick in power has him trending up. Arguably one of the more underrated players in this system.

17) LHP Cade Povich: Has taken off since joining pro ball, including a noticeable velo bump that now has him sitting in the mid-90s. Armed with four pitches that scouts all have projected as above-average pitches, Povich has the ceiling of a mid-rotation piece as he continues to refine his repertoire and develop physically. He struck out eight across six innings of one hit ball in his Orioles organization debut with Aberdeen.

18) OF Braylin Tavera: After receiving the highest international signing bonus in Orioles history this January ($1.7 million), the 17-year-old outfielder began his career with a seven-game hit streak in the Dominican Summer League. Since then, his DSL stats aren’t jumping off the page but we know that scouting the DSL/FCL stat line is a fool’s errand. Orioles Senior Director of International Scouting Koby Perez recently highlighted the fact that Tavera has some of the best tools in the DSL right now and we should expect to see him in Florida next season. Going into the signing period, scouting outlets regarded Tavera as a Top 20 international prospect with five-tool potential.

19) C Samuel Basallo: The 17-year-old backstop has been one of the more impressive stories coming out of the FCL this season. Hitting for average and power, Basallo has eclipsed double-digit home runs as a professional before the typical teenager finishes their junior year of high school and has flashed impressive catching metrics behind the plate, including a strong arm. If he sticks behind the plate, the stock skyrockets, otherwise, he emerges as a first base prospect who will need to hit and show big power numbers as he moves up through the system. At the moment, it’s hard not to be amazed at his production.

20) OF John Rhodes: One of the more athletic prospects in the entire organization, Rhodes put up an .817 OPS 58 games with Aberdeen, earning a promotion to Bowie by August, even after missing a few weeks with a wrist injury. He hits the ball hard and is able to drive the ball to all fields, routinely taking some of the more impressive at-bats night after night. His offseason work on focusing on his agility and getting back his high barrel and damage rates has clearly paid off this season. Rhodes has the lowest swinging-strike rate in the organization  and we should start to get a much more clear picture of who he is as a hitter once he settles in against Double-A pitching.

21) RHP Jean Pinto: The darling of 2021, Pinto has risen up the prospects ranks over the last year. We were the first to plant our flag on Pinto and going to continue to hold firm on that. Armed with a mid-90s fastball and slider with big shape and the ability to land at various spots in the strikezone, Pinto has had an up and down season in High-A, but he’s still just 21 and more than two years younger than his peers at the level. Working extremely quickly (imagine the fastest pitcher you’ve seen work and then put that on 1.5x speed), Pinto’s control has been the big issue in 2022, having seen his walk rate jump about five percentage points to nearly 12%, but he’s still striking out nearly 11/9 IP and has consistently run an xFIP nearly a full run lower than his ERA. There’s relief risk considering his size and arsenal, but there’s still starting potential here.

22) SS Joey Ortiz: His 2021 breakout appeared to be real, until a torn labrum ended his season soon after being promoted to Double-A. After a slow start and a slight hand adjustment, Ortiz has emerged as one of the hottest hitting prospects in baseball. Since July 1, Ortiz has put up an OPS of 1.159, a 210 wRC+, 7 home runs, and 10 doubles while striking out in fewer than 13% of his at-bats. For comparison, he had a .733 OPS, 106 wRC+, and just 4 home runs from April-end of June. With his MLB-ready defense and huge exit velo numbers, Ortiz has put himself firmly on the map and will make for an interesting discussion when it’s time to discuss who is protected from the Rule 5 this winter.

23)  SS Maikol Hernandez: Signed for $1.3 million last year (largest signing bonus in O’s history at the time), Hernandez didn’t light up the stat sheet in the DSL last season but reports outside of the organization noted improved metrics as the season progressed. It’s been another rough go for the Venezuelan shortstop in the FCL but recent reports note some changes the organization has made with his game, leading to an adjustment period. The early physical comps to Alex Rodriguez and Manny Machado naturally led to plenty of excitement about his signing, and there’s still plenty to like physically to keep interest alive. However, unless he starts producing some time soon, it’s fair to start asking some big questions about his potential.

24) RHP Michael Baumann: Between injuries, velo swings, role changes,  and being moved up and down between Baltimore/Norfolk, it’s been a journey for Baumann over the last two years. Now 26, Baumann has had his ups and downs in Triple-A this season, struggling with control some nights. Appears more likely that he could find more major league success out of the bullpen with his plus-slider and possible uptick in fastball velo with shorter outings. To note, Baumann needs just one more day on the active roster to shed his prospect status.

25) OF Jud Fabian: His draft story is well known by now, getting picked up by Boston in 2021 when the Orioles were targeting him, not signing with Boston, improving the plate discipline at Florida, and then ultimately getting drafted by Baltimore this year. The power and defense Fabian brings to the organization are real, but if the hit tool develops and the strikeouts continue to improve, Fabian becomes a possible future everyday big league outfielder. He’s sure to be one of the more scrutinzed 2022 draft picks as he begins his pro career.

26) SS Darell Hernaiz: In most other systems, Hernaiz is a Top 15 guy, but with the depth of middle infield talent the Orioles have acquired over the last few years, Hernaiz continues to get pushed down the rankings and overlooked. He’s got the power, bat-to-ball skills, and batted ball data that all point to a legitimate prospect. He was the true leader of Delmarva’s clubhouse early in 2022 despite being just 20 years old and he has the skills to stick at short, with defense being one of his more notable improvements this season.

27) RHP Carter Baumler: Baumler made his pro debut earlier this season after having 2020 wiped away and missing 2021 as he recovered from Tommy John. He’s since missed some more time due to a setback, but it’s not a serious setback and just a slight delay, nothing to be concerned about now. The 20-year-old showed big time swing and miss stuff in his debut with one of the more beautiful curveballs in the system. Hopefully, he can close 2022 with a few more innings in Delmarva and be a full-go in 2023.

28) OF Reed Trimble: Shoulder surgery back in December delayed the start of his 2022 season to mid-July. He also missed some time in 2021 after being drafted, so viewings of Trimble have been limited. However, the former 65th overall selection is still just 22, is a switch-hitting centerfielder known for having more power from the left side (of course), and had some national evaluators buzzing about him after the draft. Ideally, fall workouts go well and Trimble can begin 2023 with Aberdeen where we get a full-season worth of looks.

29) RHP Chayce McDermott: Acquired as part of the Trey Mancini trade, McDermott has some big fans within the industry and has the skill set and stuff to become a future major league starter, or a big leaguer reliever with a fastball that he can run up to 98 mph and a big, 12-6 curveball. Throughout college and at every stop in the minors, McDermott has shown plenty of swing-and-miss stuff. He’s also a product of some college injuries and COVID disruptions, so his current age/level isn’t worth harping on. He will be a fun case study to follow as the player development staff is able to work with him more.

30) 3B Max Wagner: Second-round pick of the Orioles this year. Wagner is the reigning ACC Player of the Year after hitting 27 home runs with a 1.348 OPS for Clemson, all while beginning the year on the bench. Like many recent draft picks of the Orioles (Rhodes, Trimble, etc), the Orioles are hoping they can grab Wagner early and continue his upward trajectory using their own player development processes and turning him into a high-value draft pickup.

31) RHP Chris Vallimont: A pretty solid waiver claim find for the Orioles, Vallimont had disastrous numbers in Double-A with the Twins organization, but found immediate success after coming over to Baltimore. Vallimont is able to create some uncomfortable looks with his 6’5” frame, but control issues have crept back in after a promotion to Norfolk. If that can be cleaned up, Vallimont is already on the 40-man and could get a major league look before the end of the season.

32) RHP Zach Peek: Peek’s stuff took a noticeable jump forward in 2022 and while the 11-12K/9 IP he showcased with Delmarva and Aberdeen wasn’t there this year in Bowie (7.94K/9 IP), Peek cut down on the free passes and showed a knack for producing weak ground balls/double plays when necessary. He was pushing fairly hard for a promotion to Triple-A before undergoing Tommy John surgery (same day as Seth Johnson), so we may not see Peek again until 2024. His injury was a crushing blow after watching him make one of the highest jumps on our list.

33) SS Leandro Arias: A true shortstop prospect currently making his pro debut in the DSL, Arias received the second-highest signing bonus in this past international class, with some national outlets aggressively ranking Arias within the Top 15 of the organization. His elite exit velo numbers that we’ve been given help explain why.

34) RHP Carlos Tavera: Named as one of the top sleepers in the organization before the season started, Tavera has flashed exactly why during his time in Aberdeen. Armed with a deceptive fastball that find its way into the upper-90’s, an improved slider, and a plus-changeup, Tavera has seen his strikeout rate jump to 33%, but walks remain to be arguably the biggest thing that’s holding him back. Injuries seemed to have disrupted his second-half, otherwise, Tavera was trending towards a promotion to Double-A by now.

35) RHP Kyle Brnovich: The command artist made it just eight innings into the season before having Tommy John surgery, haulting what was likely going to be a season that saw Brnovich make his MLB debut. He can fill a strikezone, avoid barrels with the fastball, and work deep into games due to his efficiency. Still viewed as a possible rotation piece.

36) OF Mishael Deson: Deson’s name has been pushed out by the organization often since acquiring him as part of the Mychal Givens trade with Colorado, with Orioles Director of International Scouting Koby Perez even describing Deson as a potential five-tool player. He hasn’t taken off this season as expected, but the 6’4” outfielder has plenty of physical projection left, budding power at the plate, and the athleticism to be a fine centerfielder. Repeating Delmarva next season may be better for Deson’s development. He doesn’t turn 21 until July 2023. It’s not time to lower the expectations with Deson.

37) SS Frederick Bencosme: Some of the best bat-to-ball skills in the organization, one of the more confident players you will watch, and one of the biggest surprises of the 2022 season. Bencosme played in just two FCL games before being promoted to Delmarva where he’s walked more than he’s struck out and has held a batting average over .350 since July 2nd. The 19-year-old has started to slowly flash more power as he’s grown more confident in Low-A. If that part of his game can develop more, he could be one of the biggest risers on national lists come next season.

38) RHP Brandon Young: Young had a bit of a breakout in 2021, posting some of the bigger strikeout numbers in the organization and showing off an impressive four-pitch mix. 2022 was supposed to be the year where we saw how his stuff could hold up across 100+ innings against Double-A competition, but an undisclosed injury has sidelined him since April 22nd. When healthy, the 2020 UDFA has the makings of a big league starter.

39) LHP Deivy Cruz: An 18-year-old lefty with legitimate strikeout stuff, a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and impressive slider, Cruz has the makings of a future starter if he can develop his changeup and smooth out the control. Walks have been a big issue in a few outings this season, but he’s an 18-year-old making his full-season debut. Very raw, but a big ceiling for Cruz.

40) RHP Noah Denoyer: One of the more interesting stories in the org, Denoyer went undrafted in 2019 (40 round draft), but has now emerged as one of Bowie’s more dependable pitchers. Hitting 95-96 mph with the fastball and showing improved breaking stuff, Denoyer’s 72/15 K/BB and sub 1.00 WHIP are some of the more impressive numbers you will see in the org and his stuff fully backs it up.

41) RHP Garrett Stallings: Another command artist, Stallings had an ERA of 28.50 and a WHIP of 4.17 in June, only to turn that around to a 1.46 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and a 31/2 K/BB in July. A truly remarkable turnaround. Without a true, elite weapon in his arsenal, Stallings has to stay ahead in the count and not rely on his fastball to remain effective, which is what he’s been able to do since that June meltdown. There’s a path for him to be an effective reliever in the majors.

42) SS Anthony Servideo: It’s been another season derailed by injuries for Servideo, seeing just 15 games of action between the FCL/Delmarva. He’s a plus-defender and can work a walk with ease, but health has been a major issue.

43) LHP Antonio Velez: Acquired from Miami as part of the Sulser/Scott trade, the changeup is a real weapon (named best changeup in Miami’s system), but he’s spent the majority of 2022 on the IL with multiple trips. His K/BB numbers have been impressive when healthy. Hopefully, a fresh, healthy start in 2023 will be a benefit.

44) RHP Ryan Watson: One of the bigger breakout prospects in 2022, Watson has done nothing but impress with Bowie as he piled up 98 strikeouts to just 19 walks throug his first 91 innings this season, working out of Bowie’s rotation after being predominately a reliever in college and his first season in the pros last year. He has a deep pitch mix and can routinely go into the 5th/6th innings of his starts, often getting better as his outings progress. Dont’ be surprised to see him much higher on all prospect lists next season.

45) OF Yusniel Diaz: It’s been a lot of the same for Yusniel Diaz in 2022. He came out of the gates hot, got hurt, tried to come back, got hurt again, and is now trying for one last shot at a big league role with the Orioles. He has enough power to give you 15+ home runs a season and a cannon of an outfield arm, but he’s not afraid to chase a pitch and the health issues have been constant. He has just a few more weeks to prove he belongs.

46) OF Donta’ Williams: Speedy outfielder who can draw a large share of walks, Williams has had his season interrupted with trips to the IL, causing disruptions with his development. The strikeout rate has ballooned since moving up to High-A, but his power numbers have increased, he’s playing his home games in Aberdeen, and he’s regularly run a low BABIP. More batted ball data would be helpful in getting a better idea of Williams’ year, but we’re remaining optimistic that he can turn things around and still profile as a fourth-outfield type at the next level.

47) OF Robert Neustrom: The power-hitting lefty has made strides in his defense and made improvements in just about every offensive category this year in Triple-A, compared to last year’s stint. The power numbers are up a tick, while the strikeouts have decreased significantly, fanning at about a 17% clip in 2022, which is down around 7% from last season. A crowded OF situation in Baltimore makes his future more complicated, but he’s earned a big league opportunity at this point.

48) SS Anderson De Los Santos: Hard-hitting shortstop prospect who has received rave reviews for his baseball IQ and the way he approaches the game. Breakout potential for De Los Santos when he moves up to Delmarva next season.

49) C Maverick Handley: Finally getting regular playing time, Handley has set career-highs in most offensive categories, showcasing power, a notable on-base ability, and even some sneaky speed. His truly elite defense is still what makes him a prospect to watch, but the offensive output is a huge benfit to his development. Handley has all the tools to be around the game for a very long time.

50) SS Isaac De Leon: De Leon has faced the same issue many in Delmarva have this year, the elimination of short-season ball forcing them to make a bigger jump than what they may have been ready for. Despite struggling to hit for average, De Leon has shown flashes of power has the highest walk rate in the organization (18% over 85 games). Like Deson, he’s still 20 and repeating Delmarva may be in his best interest. Many prospects in Delmarva may have reached their limit this season, but De Leon hasn’t.

Some names who didn’t crack our list but were either on one of our individual lists or seriously considered: RHP Justin Armbruester, RHP Brenan Hanifee, catcher Creed Willems, IF Aron Estrada, RHP Moises Chace, IF Collin Burns, and RHP Ignacio Feliz.