For my first article at Baltimore Sports and Life, I figured I’d make it a fun one and go right for a top prospect ranking. This time of year they are all over the place, you may have read one from John Sickels, or Keith Law, this week. Not every evaluator is going to agree, you’ll see variance in the different lists year to year influenced by performances when that evaluator saw some guys, or maybe by personal preference towards certain traits or tools.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
That being said, this is how I would rank the Orioles top prospects entering the 2015 season.
1. Dylan Bundy – 23, RHP – One of a few close pairs on this list, Bundy and Harvey are almost interchangeable for me. Dylan was one of the top prospects in all of baseball a short time ago, but Tommy John surgery has taken some of the wind out of that sail. Previously his fastball would sit 94-98mph, and this season after surgery was more in the 91-94mph range, however with 4 solid MLB pitches (Fastball, Curveball, Change Up and the infamous Cutter, which he is reportedly not limited from throwing as he was early in his career) he still has a very deep MLB arsenal. If he regains a little bit more of that lost velocity, he could easily be right at the top of the RHP prospects in all of baseball.
2. Hunter Harvey – 20, RHP – Hunter very well may be the top player on this list had elbow troubles not shut down the end of his season last year. That question, made it harder to pick a top prospect for this organization, given the recent surgery of Bundy as well. That being said, before the injury it looked like the Orioles reeled in the top HS pitching prospect in the 2013 draft. Dominating at lower levels, his plus curveball was too much for young hitters to handle, it may be the best in the minors, and is a true weapon to pair with his mid 90’s Fastball. A 10.88 K/BB ratio just screams great things to come, and seems as if the only thing in his way is the question of health.
3. Christian Walker – 23, First Base/DH – Walker has been below the radar as far as top prospects go since the Orioles drafted him in the 4th round out of South Carolina. He’s never going to win a gold glove at First, but he’s passable, his real skill is with the bat. Christian has a great eye, and draws a lot of walks, which helps since this past season he sacrificed some batting average for power. That power has always been a concern of his from scouts, and this past year at AA/AAA he hit a combined 26 HR, but time will tell if the power is here to stay or if it was just part of a learning process. Walker will use all fields to spray the ball around, but his real power comes from pulling down the line where his power would play well to the LF foul pole in Camden Yards.
4. Chance Cisco – 19, Catcher – Sisco broke out last year as another player with a great hit tool. Hitting a combined .345 in his first two major seasons, the bat looks like it is legit, and that kind of a bat behind the plate can lead to great opportunities. Right now looks more like a gap hitter, but he’s so young that more power could come. Defensively he has been improving, as he is a converted SS, but his footwork still needs some work, and he probably needs some more experience to learn some of the nuances behind the plate. Still a long ways off, but there are some potential diamonds down here in the Orioles lower levels.
5. Mike Wright – 25, RHP – Here is a player that is polarizing to scouts. One night you see him and he looks like a Cy Young candidate, the next night he gets shelled. I have him higher than most on my list because in my head I’ve already moved him to the pen, where I thnk he has the stuff to be elite. A power pitcher that can sit between 96-98 out of the pen could be elite as a RP where he can let the sink on his Fastball and his slider with good movement be the best that they can be. The only question is how long until he gets a chance to audition.
6. Jomar Reyes -17, 3B – Yes, that’s not a typo, he’s only 17 for a few more weeks at least, but Reyes is dripping with potential. Still has a long way to go to reach the bigs, but he’s got a huge frame that may outgrow 3B in the end, a plus arm and plus power. I’ve heard loose comparisons to Sano with his power/size combo. His key to success will be refinement, he’s still pretty raw, and needs to clean up his swing mechanics, footwork and bat speed, but there may be a real gem there, which puts him so high on this list.
7. Tim Berry – 23, LHP – Much like Wright, I have Berry at this point because I think he’s ready to shift to the pen where he can be a capable MLB reliever. He has a good curveball that is really tough on LHB, although RHB tend to hit him pretty well, he could be a lights out LOOGY, and with what they are paying Matusz for essentially the same role, could be some legit salary relief. Tim sits in the high 80’s-low 90’s with his fastball but has historically good K/BB ratios and in the hands of the right manager, could be used as a very effective weapon out of the pen.
8. Brian Gonzalez – 19, LHP – Brian is the other low level prospect with some potential, after Reyes, for me. He is built like a solid workhorse, and although I haven’t seen it yet, reports are that his change up has been flashing plus, but the intriguing part is that he’s improving since cleaning up his body shape after being drafted, and some refinement and instruction has already led to a slight uptick in velocity. Because he’s a LHP who already sat high 80’s-low 90’s, that potential room for improvement could jump him up some prospect lists. At the end of this past season he was hitting 94 which is already a big improvement. This is far from a finished prospect with say Harvey’s shine, but there is some room for improvement still, and 2015 could be a big year for him.
9. Oliver Drake – 28, RHP – While it’s extremely unusual to see a 28 year old, shoulder surgery survivor make a top prospect list, I’m giving Drake a nod here because of his conversion to the bullpen. As a RP, he’s been using his low-mid-90’s FB and his wipe out slider as a great late inning power combo, and has really taken to the closer role in Bowie. The Orioles signed him to a major league contract this offseason, and it looks like he may get a shot to displace someone in the big league pen this year.
10. Zach Davies – 22, RHP – Davies squeaks on to my list on the reputation of his plus change up that pairs with his average curve ball and his low 90’s FB that has some movement. This organization is flush with arms that are in that back end starter/bull pen zone, and Davies is one of the best in that group. He’s either got a great arsenal for a RP with a great FB/CH combo, or he’s got a decent group of pitches for a SP who has done nothing but produce at every level so far.
There’s an entire list of guys that easily could have made this list for me, as this team has a deep group of pitchers that are closely grouped, with Davies, Wright, Berry, Drake, and other guys such as Branden Kline, Tyler Wilson and Parker Birdwell all being included.
Some hitters that just missed this list for me would include Mike Yastrzemski, Glynn Davis, Drew Dosch, and Josh Hart.
A good illustration of how close together many of these prospects are is a look at BSL’s Top 15 prospects list from last summer here. You can see similarities in the lists, but you can see guys like Kline being at the front of the aforementioned group of pitchers there, and being outside of my top 10 on this one. This isn’t as much from performance or development as it is that there is some very top heavy talent in the org, a lot of depth at a certain talent level, and then some newer low level guys that have some intrigue.
A guy I left of this list because I want to get a look at him first, could be the biggest impact of all the previously mentioned characters, and that’s Jason Garcia, the rule 5 pick from BOS that had TJ surgery in 2013. Before the injury he would sit 98-100mph in RP, while flashing plus on a mouth watering slider. Perfect power RP combination, that since coming back from surgery is reported to be hitting 97mph in short spurts, and rumors are that he ticked up from that in instructs as well. Because he was a Rule 5 pick, in order to keep him the team has to keep him on the roster all season, so with a strong showing in the spring, he could be with the team to start the year.
Jeremy has been following Minor League and Amateur prospects for over 8 years. His work has previously appeared on Exile on the Anacostia, Camden Depot, and ESPN’s SweetSpot Network. Jeremy, a graduate of University of Maryland, runs his own Bookkeeping Services Firm. Born and raised in Central Maryland, he currently lives there with his wife and two daughters.