Late at night, just before the deadline to tender closer Jim Johnson, the Orioles agreed to ship the sinkerballer to Oakland in exchange for infielder Jemile Weeks and a player to be named later. You can discuss the trade here, but this is all about getting to know the newest competitor for the Orioles’ second base job.
Discuss the newest Oriole here.
Jemile Weeks has had a tough go of it recently, getting bounced between the Major Leagues and Oakland’s AAA affiliate in Sacramento. Weeks looked to be a serious contributor after his rookie campaign in 2011, when he hit .303 with a .340 OBP and stole 22 bases in 97 games. Weeks followed up his strong rookie outing with a .211 average and .305 OBP in 118 games in 2012 before being officially demoted to AAA. He played in just 8 Major League games in 2013, racking up a total of 9 plate attempts. Baseball-Reference doesn’t list him as such, but those are pinch runner numbers.
Weeks was worth an estimated 1.7 fWAR and 1.6 bWAR in 2011, but has since performed at sub-replacement level. Not long ago, he was considered untouchable by Oakland. Times have changed.
That brings us to Jemile Weeks’ first strength: his speed. In his Major League career, Weeks has successfully completed 70% of his stolen base attempts. In the early 2000s, when runs were easier to come by, that was right around the area that a stolen base contributed positively to run total and therefore win total. In 2012, with teams scoring less, the estimate for success rate needed to contribute positively has dropped to 66.6%, which Weeks has passed every year in the Majors. In his rookie season, he successfully completed exactly 66.6% of his stolen base attempts, with his success rate rising to 76.2% in his sophomore 2012 season. The jump is at least partly due to learning when to steal at the Major League level: Weeks attempted just 21 steals in 118 games in 2012 after making 33 attempts in 97 games in 2011. Of course, he was on base less often in 2012, which cut into his opportunities to steal as well. Weeks successfully stole a base on 78.6% of his attempts in the minor leagues.
For such a fast guy, many would expect his defense to be well above-average. Unfortunately, it’s not. Even his Range Runs Above Average, a measure of how well a fielder can get to balls in his area, is below 0: Jemile Weeks costs the team runs when he plays defense. Without watching any film or knowing anything about him besides numbers, I’m going to hazard a guess that the Orioles believe or hope that they can coach him up on defense and take advantage of his incredible speed in the field. Weeks has posted a negative UZR in each of his stints in the Majors.
Weeks has shown the potential to be good at the plate. His 2011 campaign was long enough that it can’t be shrugged off as a small sample size. He was aided significantly by a .350 BABIP in that year, which he was unable to match in 2012 and 2013. Part of his precipitous decline in this department is due to a drop in line drive rates. In 2011, 22% of the balls Weeks put into play were line drives. In 2012, that figure dropped to 16%. A guy with his speed should be able to leg out some infield singles and regularly post an above-average BABIP, but he can really hurt his average and his BABIP by not hitting enough balls hard.
Jemile Weeks BABIP
Jemile Weeks brings no power to the table, which is okay for a team that led the Majors in home runs in 2013 but failed to put men on base in critical situations.
Weeks swings at about half of the pitches he sees, but is more selective with fastballs. He swings at 38% of four-seam fastballs and 37% of two-seamers. He swings at 54% of sliders and misses 11% of the time, for his highest whiff rate on a particular pitch. Weeks does a decent job of swinging at sliders in the strike zone, but needs to miss less and make better contact to convince pitchers to throw anything else to him.
Jemile Weeks vs. the Slider via Texas Leaguers and PITCHf/x
He puts 25% of change-ups that he sees into play, and about 50% of those that make it out of the infield drop in for hits. Weeks’ overall swing rates inside and outside of the stike zone and his rates of contact for each stayed relatively consistent from 2011 to 2012, with some dropoff in 2012.
Weeks posted a 9.8% walk rate in 2012, which is above-average. For him to earn time on a major league roster, he would have to post a much better walk rate to make up for his other shortcomings at the plate.
Weeks will likely compete for the second base spot on the Major League roster, but don’t be surprised to see him end up in Norfolk to begin the season. If Nate McLouth leaves in free agency, Weeks would be the fastest guy on the roster and might see bench time just for that. If he can turn his speed into league-average or better defense and turn his fortunes around at the plate, Weeks could be a great buy-low piece that the Orioles received for a spare part. If he never figures out the bat but can play competent or good defense, he could be a good utility infielder that spends most of his time in the dugout.
Patrick was the co-founder of Observational Studies, a blog which focused on the analysis and economics of professional sports. The native of Carroll County graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from Loyola University Maryland. Patrick works at a regional economic development and marketing firm in Baltimore, and in his free time plays lacrosse.