Baltimore @ Tampa Bay 6/1 – 6/3 Things to Look For

The Baltimore Orioles arrive in Tampa Bay having lost 5 consecutive games, 3 straight series, and their RF for the next 3-4 weeks. They also arrive in Tampa Bay, still tied with the Rays on top of the American League East at 29-22.

1) Wieters sported a .188 average (18 for 96), and .605 OPS in May. The O’s offense (9th in runs, 21st in On-base %, and 6th in Slugging) has been struggling lately. Things will not get easier with Markakis out of action for the next few weeks. It is a new Month, and time for Wieters to again provide production in the middle of the lineup.

2) Betemit’s OPS was .833 going into May 8th. Going into tomorrow, that has dropped to .704. He has never hit lefties well, and is struggling mightily (.484 OPS, 46 ab’s) vs. Southpaws this year. The Rays are starting two lefties (Price tomorrow, Moore on Sunday) in this series. He needs to be out of the lineup in both of those games. With splits so disparate, why not abandon switch-hitting, and try batting lefty vs. lefties?

3) Reynolds returned for the Toronto series and was 3 for 10, with a double, 3 rbi, 3 bb’s, and 4 k’s. Last year he had 5 different Months with at-least 5 homers, including 3 Months with 8. A couple of big flies from him over the weekend would provide the lineup a needed lift.

4) While Avery could come  back up to replace a player on the DL, it does not appear that he will. So who does? I would vote for adding L.J. Hoes to the 40 man (replacing Zach Phillips), and bringing him up to play LF, with Chavez moving to RF. Aside from that, you could give Flaherty additional time in RF, or you could play Tolleson more in LF, with Chavez again moving to RF.

4a) Or if you wanted to get ‘wild’, you could consider playing Reynolds in LF. That would not be my first choice in Tampa Bay.

5) Chen is starting tomorrow night for the Birds. After getting knocked around by the Nationals, I was pleased to see him rebound with a quality outing vs. KC. For the year, Chen is 4-1, with a 3.31 era. In his 54.1 innings, he has allowed 53 hits, 6 hr’s, 18 bb’s, with 42 k’s. His OPS against is .719, and his G/F is 0.56.  Four of the 6 hr’s he has allowed have come in the last 3 starts. I’d like to see him keep the ball in the park tomorrow. If you want to stay competitive throughout a season (and avoid prolonged losing streaks), you need your starting pitchers to give you an opportunity to win. Chen has done that in 8 of his 9 starts so far. He needs to do that again tomorrow.

6) Showalter seems to like having Andino lead-off, especially against LHP. I’m sure that the rationale is that even though Andino has a .311 OBP overall, he has a .326 OBP vs. LHP. If Andino is leading off this weekend, he has to come up with some with quality ab’s. His modest 6 game hitting streak ended Wednesday.

7) Matusz’s last outing vs. KC was ho-hum. Not great, not horrible. Matusz has had a couple of high quality outings (at New York, vs. Boston), and generally has been fairly solid. In 6 of his 10 starts, he has gone at-least 5.2 ip, and allowed 4 er or less. Not great, but competitive. In his last 3 starts, he has gone at-least 6 innings each time, and allowed 3 er or less. After a lost 2011, I think these first two months of 2012 for Matusz were getting his feet back under him. That has been achieved, and there has been some progress. Now in June, I want to see him take another step and raise his game further.

8) The bullpen was not over-used in Toronto, and was off today. The O’s are also off Monday. With that in-mind, the pen should be available for extended use throughout the weekend. Hopefully the starters are effective, and provide innings. However, if they problems, I won’t be opposed to Showalter showing a quick hook.

9) Chavez came off the DL in Toronto, and was 0 for 5 in his ab’s vs. the Jays, not looking any better than he did in his first 60 ab’s with the Birds. I continue to remind myself that Chavez was pretty useful with Texas last year (.749 OPS, 256 ab’s, 18 xbh’s). With Markakis out, it seems likely he will get extended time these next few weeks. I’ll deal with a struggling bat, if he provides some superior defense.

10) Arrieta will start Sunday. His start Tuesday in Toronto was poor, and his era (5.37) looks bad as well. Beyond his era, Arrieta’s peripheral numbers are still solid. Arrieta’s limited fastball command is still an issue, and Tampa Bay’s typically patient lineup will pose a challenge. Lefties have hit Arrieta pretty well, especially for power this year. Keeping runners off in-front of Joyce, Pena, Zobrist, and Scott will be big. This will be Arrieta’s 2nd start vs. Tampa Bay this year, after being smacked around for 10 hits allowed in 3.2 innings in Baltimore 5/13.

Projected Pitchers:
6/1: Chen vs. Price (LHP)
6/2: Matusz vs. Hellickson
6/3: Arrieta vs. Moore (LHP)

Price: 6-3, 2.71 era, 66.1 ip, 62 hits, 5 hr’s, 21 bb’s, 57 k’s, .649 OPS against, 1.18 G/F
Pitch F/X: http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/456034/

Hellickson: 4-1, 2.83 era, 63.2 ip, 57 hits, 10 hr’s, 21 bb’s, 41 k’s, .713 OPS ag, 0.71 G/F
Pitch F/X: http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/476451/

Moore: 1-5, 4.76 era, 56.2 ip, 55 hits, 9 hr’s, 28 bb’s, 58 k’s, .766 OPS against, 0.62 G/F
Pitch F/X: http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/519043/

C: Lobaton 16 ab’s
1st: Pena  .727 OPS
2nd: Rhymes .646 OPS
SS: Johnson .700 OPS
3rd: Sutton 29 ab’s
LF: Joyce .944 OPS
CF: Upton .761 OPS
RF: Zobrist .737 OPS
DH: Scott .760 OPS

Bench: Molina, Matsui, Thompson, Rodriguez
Rotation: Price, Shields, Hellickson, Cobb, Moore
Bullpen: Rodney, McGee, Peralta, Howell, Badenhop, Davis, Ramos

Current Ranks:

Tampa Bay
Runs: 17th
Batting Average: 26th
On Base: 13th
Slugging: 17th
ERA: 7th
Quality Starts: 19th
WHIP: 11th
BAA: 8th

Baltimore
Runs: 9th
Batting Average: 17th
On Base: 21st
Slugging: 6th
ERA: 11th
Quality Starts: 21st
WHIP: 13th
BAA: 16th