When we look at what the Ravens have shown thus far, the major decline has been with the passing offense. They have fallen from a league-leading 52.7% pass offense DVOA to a respectable-but-boring 9.8% pass offense DVOA. It’s a figure that gets even more alarming if you look at what happens on downs where they can’t rely on the threat of the run as much: their second- and third-and-long pass attempts.
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| Ravens offensive DVOA splits by year (Rank) | ||||
| All second down passes | All third/fourth down passes | Second-and-long DVOA | Third-and-long DVOA | |
| 2020 | -32.0% (32) | 10.0% (16) | -36.6% (30) | -61.7% (23) |
| 2019 | 60.9% (1) | 59.2% (2) | 40.4% (3) | 73.7% (3) |
The major input for this statistical decline, I think, amounts to three things: an offensive line decline, defenses adjusting to what Lamar Jackson does best, and a lack of a true go-to receiver developing.
In 2019, the Ravens were blitzed an average of 10.3 times per game. In 2020, that has fallen to 9.8 times per game. Yet, despite that tiny drop, the Ravens have been pressured on 24.2% of downs, up from 16.5% in 2019 per SportsRadar. Ronnie Stanley has missed a game and change, yes, but also replacing Marshal Yanda with Tyre Phillips has been a big downgrade in the early going. Phillips has blown 6 pass blocks this year. Yanda blew four pass blocks in all of 2019.
So without the offensive line doing otherworldly things, defenses have been able to key in a little easier on Baltimore’s early reads and the Ravens don’t really have receivers who can easily be trusted to win one-on-one in areas where Jackson likes to throw the ball. A good example of this that still worked out for the Ravens was the touchdown throw to Nick Boyle against the Eagles:
The Ravens are trying to get Jackson away from the line here which condenses the space and allows safeties to ignore the left side of the formation. The defense barely honors Miles Boykin outside and what winds up happening is Willie Snead (83) gets doubled by the safety and Hollywood Brown (15) on the drag route will get picked up by a zone safety underneath in tight coverage. Too tight of a window to trust a player of that build to win without a perfect throw.
So Jackson just has to keep holding the ball until his late option, Boyle on the release, comes open.
It’s a play that only works from this position because 49 respects Jackson’s ability to run to the outside and abandons Boyle in space. There are an awful lot of Ravens highlights that go just like this this year. One of Mark Andrews’ touchdowns against Washington involved Jackson having to hit the edge to buy time.
This is, to me, what makes the Dez Bryant signing interesting for the Ravens. I don’t think Jackson and Miles Boykin fit terrifically well on what they do best: Boykin is built to win deep on the sideline and those aren’t throws Jackson tends to favor. The only receiver that Baltimore has that has been empirically interesting on second- and third-and-long is Devin Duvernay, who has four successful catches in seven attempts, along with two first downs. It’s been a long time since Bryant was an NFL factor, but he basically made his career on being a big slant receiver that nobody could cover in that area. The Ravens need somebody who wins like that in the worst way for when their line stutters.
I think some of this regression has been inevitable; nothing as great as what Baltimore did last year is ever-lasting, because anything that is that successful gets measured and analyzed deeply. But between the line being more human and Jackson being at times susceptible to good zone-drop designs and stacking underneath, I think there are real roots to this problem that the Ravens are going to have to solve as they aim towards the second half of the season.
Pittsburgh leads the NFL in pressure rate. Hope they worked on a way to counter that in a hurry.
Ravens Analyst
Rivers McCown is a writer and editor who has written for ESPN.com, Bleacher Report, USA Today, and Deadspin, among other places. He’s edited for Football Outsiders, Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue.