Better Pick for the Ravens? Jaelen Strong vs. Devin Smith

April 30th and the start of the 2015 NFL Draft is right around the corner. Two of BSL’s Ravens Analysts – Mike Randall, and Shawn Brubaker – have come together to debate the merits of WR’s Jaelen Strong and Devin Smith.

Read their respective arguments, and let us know who you believe would be the better selection for Baltimore with the 26th overall pick.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Brubaker: When I scout players, my first priority is finding clearly definable skills that will translate to the next level. With regards to Devin Smith, I have no doubt that his deep ball ability will translate to the next level. His ability to get open on deep routes is uncanny, showing veteran savvy with small moves that throw defenders off balance. That Smith happens to be blazing fast is just icing on the cake in terms of his ability to get open.

Then, with the ball in the air, Smith is among the best receivers in this draft at tracking the ball and fighting to make the catch. This guy has the body control, leaping ability and hands to sky the ball as well as any receiver in this class aside from the top-three guys.

I recognize that Smith is hardly a finished product. He isn’t as elusive in the open field as his speed would suggest, and he has no track record of success on short and intermediate routes. He may never become better than average at these skills, though I think his explosion and savvy can be applied to the shorter routes.

Even if he never does become anything more than a one-trick pony, Smith will have a place in the NFL because he will immediately become one of the best deep threats in the NFL.

Randall: Jaelen Strong has good size at 6’2”, 217 lbs. Strong also sports a 42 inch vertical. Second best at the combine to Georgia’s Chris Conley’s absurd 45 inch leap. Not counting Conley, Strong’s is the best in the last three years. Torrey Smith was 6’1” and had a 41” vert. Strong gives you two more inches of ups than Torrey. So while he doesn’t possesses the speed that Torrey has, Strong will win more of those jump balls, and don’t be shocked if he beats defenses deep more often than you think. He tracks the deep ball very well.

Strong’s play reminds me a lot of Anquan Boldin, in that he doesn’t need to be open in order to make a play. His hands are very strong and he doesn’t need to rely on his body to haul in balls. He plucks them out of the air with ease. He is very versatile in his skill set that he runs all the intermediate routes, is a weapon after the catch with good vision in the open field. Often used in bubble screens, and when called upon can go deep as well. While Strong isn’t a track star, he uses deception in acceleration to dupe DBs into cheating up, and then he turns on the jets and gets behind the defense. He plays loose, fluid, well rounded, he makes playing WR look easy.

Jaelen Strong is the total package at WR. He’s no one trick pony. I’m not looking for a Torrey Smith replacement. I’m looking for a Torrey Smith upgrade!

(Side Note: The Ravens have a great track record of drafting Sun Devils in round 1. Todd Heap – 2001, Terrell Suggs – 2003).

Brubaker: I only need one GIF to show you why I love Devin Smith.

The veteran move to get open, the ability to track the ball and the concentration to make the catch… He shows these kinds of skills on every snap, and these are skills that translate to the NFL level. And if Smith can make such a savvy move on a deep route, I’m confident he’ll figure out how to do the same thing on shorter routes.

As for Strong, for every catch like his Hail Mary touchdown against USC, there is one like this…

That’s a guy who jumped 42 inches at the NFL Combine, yet Strong barely gets a foot off the ground here to go after the ball. Strong isn’t as aggressive in pursuing the ball as Smith, nor does he get open as often.

Randall: Sometimes you have to credit the defense. The Wildcat DB had Strong covered like a blanket. I’ll show you some ups from Jaelen.

If that isn’t shades of Anquan Boldin, I don’t know what is. He doesn’t need to be open to make plays. When it’s 4th and 3 with the game on the line, who do want. Anquan Boldin, or DeSean Jackson? I want the guy who you can depend on to make the high percentage catches. Not the guy who once every few games connects for a big play. Smith goes deep, and is good at it. But the Ravens don’t throw deep very often in their version of the West Coast Offense. New Offensive Coordinator Marc Trestman likes having big receivers that win in traffic, win jump balls. Look at the height he had in Chicago with Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and TE Martellus Bennett.  

I don’t see Smith as anymore than a deep threat. I don’t see him running crisp short or intermediate routes that are a must in the current offensive system. Check this out.

Sure, he makes the TD grab. You’ll get away with rounding off routes and pure speed when playing Illinois. Also, the trips right set has Illinois fooled and the DBs are still trying to adjust in time for the snap. Credit the play call more than the execution. At the NFL level, press coverage will disrupt the timing here. DBs jump that route and with the timing thrown off by the lazy rounded off route, it could be an easy pick six the other way.

Brubaker: My problem with Strong isn’t that he can’t make those highlight reel plays. It’s his consistency in making them. He flashes the ability to do everything well, then he’ll round off a route or barely pursue a jump ball.

Smith, on the other hand, has those same flashes but with a consistent skill: His ability on the deep ball. Sure, his intermediate routes could use work, as you pointed out. Even with a bad cut, though, look how much separation Smith generated on that touchdown. Just imagine what he can do when he learns the nuances of the NFL game!

And don’t count Smith out on jump ball situations. This guy has the ability to consistently track the ball, the ups to go get it, and the hands to come down with it. His catch radius might not be as good as Strong’s, but Smith is more aggressive pursuing the ball and more aware when bringing it in.

Randall: If Cam Cameron was still running the offense in Baltimore, I would be higher on Smith for sure. But the Ravens just don’t throw it deep enough to warrant wasting a high pick on a deep threat. Just like it wasn’t worth $40M to retain Torrey Smith, who is a deep threat like Devin Smith, and had his worst season since his rookie year in the new scheme. The Ravens went from attempting the most deep balls (over 20 yards in the air) in 2013 under Caldwell in the Cameron scheme, to just 16th most out of 25 qualifying QBs under Kubiak, in the scheme Trestman will carry over. Devin likely has the same kind of production as Torrey. Around 40 catches, 700 yards, although the 11 TDs are an anomaly in my opinion. Devin won’t score 11 TDs. Strong can easily be a 80-90 catch guy and go over 1,000 yards with the high number of short and intermediate passes the Ravens will call.  

Brubaker: Closing statement: Comparing Devin Smith to Torrey Smith is a false analogy. Torrey was a one trick poney, incapable of making cuts due to limited lateral quickness. Devin does not have those same limitations.

In terms of upside, I find Jaelen Strong and Devin Smith roughly equal. Both have the potential to be dynamic players at the next level. Where Strong does everything pretty well, though, Smith does one thing incredibly well, which is, of course, catch the deep ball. What that means is that while Strong may never develop a true NFL skill (pretty good in college just isn’t good enough in the NFL), Smith will enter the league ready to make an immediate impact.

That said, I don’t think Smith is bad at any other skill. I just don’t think he’s had the chance yet to prove what he can do. Urban Meyer’s offense doesn’t exactly prepare a receiver for the pro game, yet Smith managed to be the most technically sound receiver I can remember coming from a Meyer-coached team. With NFL coaching, especially on his routes, Smith’s explosiveness will win out over Strong’s size.

And size is an overrated attribute in receivers anyway. Sure, Strong has a bigger catch radius than Smith, yet on film, I saw Smith catch just as many jump balls as Strong.

So you have Smith, a guy who can already get open deep and catch jump balls, versus Strong, a bigger receiver who made some highlight reel catches but won’t get open at the next level. I will bet on the suddenness, the explosiveness and the flashes of technical skill that Smith displayed.

Randall: Closing statement: I feel like this debate is all about preference. Reliable chain mover and red zone threat, versus the potential home run threat. Do you want seven catches a game for 100 yards, or two catches a game for 50 yards? At the end of the day, you have to ask yourself two questions. Who fits the Ravens system the best, and who will Joe Flacco benefit from the most? Strong is clearly the better fit, evident by how little the Ravens will throw deep which led to Torrey Smith’s severe statistical regression. Marc Trestman also prefers the bigger receivers like he had in Chicago. Joe Flacco would benefit more from having a big target to throw to, and the key to winning football is moving the chains, and owning time of possession. In all the years that the deep ball was the focus in Baltimore in the Cam Cameron system, the offense, and Joe Flacco was never ranked as high as it was in 2014 with the scheme shift, and they also posted the most points per game in the Flacco/Harbaugh era. Why give the Ravens a reason to try more low percentage passes, and risk overall offensive regression? I said it before, I’ll say it again. Torrey Smith upgrade. Not Torrey Smith replacement.