Who Are The Biggest X-Factors On The Ravens Roster?

Weeks into Training Camp, and days after their first exhibition game; the Baltimore Ravens are inching closer to the Sunday September 11th season opener vs. Buffalo.

Most prognosticators have the Ravens projected to finish 3rd in the AFC North. The site 32Red Canada gives 16/1 odds at Baltimore winning the AFC.  The odds as is are reasonable, and predicated around the reality that the Ravens are a bit of an unknown here in mid-August. Coach John Harbaugh, and QB Joe Flacco are entering their 9th year together. They reached the playoffs in each of their initial 5 seasons, culminating in the Super Bowl XLVII victory in February 2013. In the 3 seasons since that moment, Baltimore has reached the post-season once.

In ’16, will the Ravens reach the playoffs for the 7th time in 9 years, or be out of the playoffs for the 3rd time in 4 years?

To me, it starts with the division. Baltimore has finished 3rd in the AFC North each of the last 3 years. Pittsburgh has a great offense. Under Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati has never advanced in the playoffs; but they have reached the post-season in 5 consecutive years, and 6 out of 7.

This time last year, many people were picking the Ravens to reach Super Bowl 50. Then things fell apart. It’s exceedingly rare to see a team touted as a preseason Super Bowl contender, to end that same year with 5 wins. To me, it’s fairly clear that the Ravens are closer to again being a quality team in ’16 vs. us seeing a repeat of last years disaster. There is still talent on the roster, but before Baltimore thinks about competing in the Conference as a whole, the focus in-my-opinion begins with making headway against their North foes.

As we look ahead to the season, who are the most important players on the roster? Not a listing of who are the best talents, but whose performance (be it positive or negative) will have the most variable impact on where the team finishes?

By that definition (whose performance will have the most impact), the below list should begin and end with Flacco. The reason I’m not including Joe, or Marshall Yanda, or Brandon Williams, or CJ Mosley, or Eric Weddle, is because I believe it’s a given that if they are healthy, each will be productive. If you want to say that Mosley is an X-Factor, because he could be that much better on 3rd down in space, that’s fair. For me, even if he doesn’t reach his ceiling, it can still be anticipated he will be an asset.

Also, for me, I’m not giving added weight to health. It’s a given, that if Flacco was lost to injury, there would be no larger detriment the team could face. No larger X-Factor for overall team performance. For me, adding them to a list like this just feels like unnecessarily stating the obvious.

Regarding other players, I have elected not to include any RB’s. It seems likely that Baltimore is going to carry 4 RB’s (Forsett, Allen, West, and Dixon). If you are carrying 4 RB’s and can reasonably expect each to have opportunities; I don’t think any of them belong on this list (that said, I do think both West and Dixon have breakout potential).

Similarly, I didn’t include any TE’s. One or more of them will perform.

I do see decent arguments for Webb, and Wright, but neither made my list. My thinking is Webb will be better (and potentially strong) at Safety, and Wright will be serviceable at CB.

I think Campanaro could really help the Ravens if he stays available, but if he doesn’t – I believe the other WR’s will compensate.

With those caveats, here are the 8 players which I think have the largest potential variance of impact for the Baltimore Ravens in 2016.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

#6) Timmy Jernigan

The third year player from Florida State was an X-Factor for me last year, and is again so here going into 2016. I don’t think anyone questions his ability, but the production wasn’t there this past season. If he regularly pushes the pocket and puts QB’s on their backs – that will be a tremendous lift to the defense. Conversely, if he doesn’t show up consistently, that would be a blow. (In that case, maybe I could have Carl Davis, who I’m also expecting more of this year.)

#5 TIE) Za’Darius Smith / Kamalei Correa

We cheat a bit here with tie of Smith and Correa. Smith came away with 5.5 sacks in his rookie season, serving mostly as a 3rd down pass rushing specialist. As he enters Year 2, Smith is one of the more intriguing players on the roster. At times over the past few years, the Ravens defense has looked slow. Whenever he’s on the field, there is a noticeable boost of explosiveness added to the D.

How is he with setting the edge? By his own admission, that’s an area targeted for improvement. How is he against the run? Can he show some diversification with his pass rush?

We of course acknowledge that the adjustment to the NFL is significant for any rookie, and that adjustment will only be increased for Correa if he makes a full positional switch inside. We also note that it’s possible the starting ILB next to CJ Mosley will prove to be Zach Orr. Overall though, I’m still intrigued by the potential of the Boise State rookie.

As with Za’Darius, we believe Kamalei’s fresh legs, and superior athleticism can help the Ravens defense overall. I think the more snaps this duo gets, the better off the defense will be. I think you put Correa on the field in an extended capacity early, with the expectation there will be ups and downs. The hope would be week-to-week progression.

#4) Breshad Perriman

Coach Harbaugh was recently quoted as saying he believes Perriman will be ready for Week 1.
Since Perriman missed his rookie season, and started this 2016 camp on the PUP (physically unavailable to perform) list; the only right right approach with the 2015 1st rounder is wait and see. Or maybe more accurately, show me.

He wasn’t a polished product when he was drafted, and he hasn’t been healthy enough to improve on the practice field. Without those snaps (and building timing with Flacco), it’s hard to imagine him just being ready to go Week 1, even if he is healthy enough to be out there. Heck, others have made the reasonable argument he should be placed on the regular season PUP list, which would definitively keep him out of action over the first 6 weeks.

Perriman’s availability is an x-factor, but as we said above; I’m not giving added weight to health. If he’s on the field, Perriman doesn’t have to be a finished product to quickly impact games. Go deep, pull defenders from the box, and help open up things underneath.

For the same reason I didn’t include Campanaro, I could see not including Perriman. The Ravens could adjust if Perriman is not available, or productive. Ultimately I’ve included Perriman due to his size and speed, which are always attributes which have to be accounted for by opposing defenses.

#3 TIE) Terrell Suggs / Elvis Dumervil

Again, we cheat a bit with our second listed tie. In 2014, Suggs and Dumervil combined for 29 sacks. Suggs is said to feel good, and is back practicing; but the Achilles injury is nothing to be dismissed. My goal would be to limit his snaps, try and get regular production from him on 3rd down, and keep his legs as fresh as possible as the year progresses.

My guess is that he will have no interest in that, and will want to be on the field as much as he can. I’m also guessing he remains the best option for setting the edge and against the run for his position on the roster.

With Suggs sidelined last year, Dumervil saw his sack total drop from 17 to 6. He turned 32 in January.

My opinion is you can not be overly pessimistic or overly optimistic with this duo. They might be excellent. They were just two years ago. You also might not get much from either.

I think you have be in a wait-and-see mode with both, as opposed to going into the season expecting ’15 to have just been a bad dream.

#2) Ronnie Stanley

The Ravens didn’t get much from Eugene Monroe last year. Monroe played 6 games, and wasn’t particularly good in the games he was available. If Stanley is a league average LT in his Rookie year (and regularly on the field), that will be an improvement.

The chance exists that he will be better than average. He certainly flashed that potential in the preseason opener, showing the tools which had him drafted #6 overall.

There will also be times where he is not yet strong enough, or has trouble with NFL speed, and looks like the Rookie he is.

Do you get more of his potential ceiling, or more of his floor?

Here in mid-August, I’m feeling good about what he will provide.

#1) Jimmy Smith

I’m pleased to read that Smith had his best day of practice this camp today. That’s good to hear.

I generally believe the defense is going to be improved, which isn’t going out on a huge limb. Baltimore was a 5 win team last year, with limitations all over the place. The offensive issues clearly impacted the defense. Even if you don’t believe the Ravens are good enough to take the AFC North, there does seem to be consensus that the team will be better. For example, the sportsbook Unibet has the Ravens at 6/5 to win 8.5 games. While I believe the team, and defense will be better, I have to see Smith back and ready to handle elite WR’s 1×1 before I believe the defense has a chance to be elite.

Some better pass rush up-front would clearly help, but Smith has to show he’s back physically to the point where he can be left on an island. Last year he was healthy enough to be on the field, but he wasn’t right. As the article linked above states, it more than straight-line speed. He has to be able to cut, and accelerate through change of direction.

To me, the question of if Smith gets back to where he was prior to the 2014 injury, is the biggest potential variable on the roster.