Bradish Done For The Year

The news Oriole fans were expecting and dreading became official tonight; as it has been revealed that Kyle Bradish is done for the year with Tommy John surgery.

Entering tonight, the O’s are 47-25. Their .653 winning % has the Birds on pace to win 106 games.

The Orioles are 2.5 games behind the Yankees for 1st in the AL East.

All of the metrics point to the O’s and Yankees as being two well matched teams, and clearly the cream of the American League.

If you are looking at the minimal differences between the teams right now, you’d point to the Yankees superior on-base skills (NY is 2nd overall in obp, while the O’s are 15th overall), and the fact that New York is welcoming back Gerrit Cole tonight, while the O’s have now lost Bradish.

You have to feel for Kyle. The to-be 28 year old had established himself over the past year as a legitimate ace.
Even if he’s back on a mound a year from now, it might take additional time for him to be right.
Realistically, we probably don’t see him again until the end of ’25, and beginning of ’26.

It’s a huge blow for the right-hander personally, and the O’s as a team.

2022 was a feel good year for the O’s as young players started to ascend.
2023 was a breakthrough, as the O’s established themselves as a force.
2024 has been fun as the O’s have not stepped back at all, and have continued to show themselves to be one of baseball’s premier teams.

’24 hasn’t been without obstacles.
Felix Bautista was lost to injury at the end of last year.
The best reliever in baseball last year, completely unavailable to the Birds, but they’ve carried on.
Bradish of course started the year on the shelf.  As did John Means. Means came back, and was also lost for the year.
Tyler Wells came into the year as a good option to help steady the rotation for sometime; with the hope he would boost the bullpen later in the year. He was also lost for the year.
Danny Coulombe is out injured currently.

Even with the deepest teams, there are tipping points with attrition.
Has that tipping point been reached for the Birds?

Depends on what exactly you are asking.
If you are asking if they should still make the post-season, the answer is yes.
The O’s are currently the lead Wild Card, with a 7 game lead over Minnesota.
So, you have to feel good there.

Also, the division is clearly still in play, regardless of this latest injury news.
If the Birds win tonight, they’re 1.5 games back of NY.
If they lose, it’s just a 3.5 game deficit with 55% of the season left to play.

I fully expect that the O’s are going back to the post-season.

If you are asking if their World Championship hopes have been reduced, the answer there is also yes unfortunately.

Playoff baseball is about short-samples, and luck largely factors.
Still, if the O’s had got to October with Burnes, Bradish, and Rodriguez healthy; you would have felt about as good as you could about that opportunity.

Without Bradish, the O’s can still end this year winning the organization’s first World Championship since 1983, but the road is that much harder.

For me, what a team does over the course of 162 game season, is always more impressive than what happens over a short-sample size in the playoffs.
But ultimately, the regular season is about earning the opportunity to shoot-your-shot in the playoffs.
The O’s can still take their shot without Bradish, but the chances of hitting bulls-eye have been reduced.

With the knowledge here on June 19th that Bradish will not be part of the rest of this year; there is pressure on Orioles GM Mike Elias to add a starting pitcher of significance.
You can feel relatively fine about Kremer, Irvin, Suarez, and Povch for the 4th and 5th spots; but you need one more plus starter to team with Burnes and Rodriguez at the front of the rotation to make sure you get to October, and give you a better chance once there.

I’m also of the opinion that Elias also needs to add one 1 high leverage reliever to this mix.
Again, not because doing so will guarantee anything, but just to increase your odds of getting through multiple playoff rounds.

We’ve already had discussion for weeks of possible targets both as relievers and potential starters.
You can look at the standings, and you know that Detroit, the White Sox, the Angels, Oakland, Miami, and Colorado figure to be sellers.
It’s quite likely that Toronto, Tampa Bay, Texas, the Mets, Cincinnati, and San Francisco also look to sell off assets.

The logical questions are, “Who would you target, and what would you trade?” Also, “Who would the acquisitions replace?”

As far as what I’d trade, the answer is, “Well, what am I getting back exactly?”

Trading Holliday isn’t happening in my opinion.
Trading Mayo is highly highly unlikely.

Trading Basallo or Kjerstad is unlikely, but possible.
Basallo could headline a deal for a quality starter.  Kjerstad could be enough for a quality reliever.
Norby would figure to be part of any deal.
Bradfield is an add on in a trade, but not going to bring back a much on his own. He’s probably unlikely to be moved.

Anyone else in the organization could easily be moved, and while they wouldn’t garner a ton individually, there are lots of guys who could add quality depth to prospective deals.

As far as guys you’d like to replace; we mentioned the four options for the 4th and 5th starter above.
Two of them could add the bullpen, so that has to be factored.
Right now you have Baker, Vespi on the active, that’s two spots there.

In the pen, if you can add one high leverage reliever, you can find room between Tate, Akin, and Perez.

If you are going to target 1 quality reliever, and 1 starter, you probably aren’t going to do anything to add positional talent, so, it’s about what you have internally.

I don’t think Mateo is going to have a .700+OPS all year, but he does right now.
That current offense, with the defense, and speed, means 2nd is currently his.
When he struggles, then Westburg can take over 2nd, and Mayo (if they believe he can be league average defensively) can come up to play 3rd this year, with Urias getting time defensively in close and late situations.

I still see Mayo (and Kjerstad if he’s not traded) ultimately getting time in ’25 at 1st and DH, but right now you have Mountcastle and O’Hearn producing and not going anywhere.

Of course you also have Rutschman getting time at DH, so adding Mayo into the 1st / DH mix here in ’24 just doesn’t work.
If he’s up, he’s got to be able to play a passible 3rd base.

In the OF, Cedric has shown signs of life in the last week. We will see if he can build on that.
If he can’t, and Cowser gets more time in CF, then that gives Hays and potentially Stowers (sent down today) more time in LF.
If Hays and Stowers aren’t producing enough in LF (again, if Cowser is in CF); then maybe Kjerstad could get ab’s, or O’Hearn / Mayo could stand in the OF, which would not be ideal defensively.

So, again, I think it’s on Elias to add a starting pitcher of significance, and to also add a quality reliever you’ll feel good about in high leverage situations.

The Orioles have the organizational depth to make moves.
You still have to define what exactly is out there to target, and determine how you match-up with the wants of that team.

One other wrinkle here that I think Elias has to factor, is thinking beyond 2024.
Burnes is a Free Agent.
With the new Ownership, and not a lot of existing financial obligations on the books going forward; I think it’s possible that the O’s attempt to resign Burnes.
But there are no guarantees there.

If you lose Burnes to Free Agency, and at-best don’t have Bradish available in any capacity for 1/2 of ’25; that could be a big step-back for the team.
Finding viable replacements for two ace level starters isn’t going to be easy.
Getting a high quality starter added that can help your chances of accomplishing your goals in ’24, while also still being under control for ’25 (and increasing your odds next year as well) should be the priority.
If you are going to go all in on any potential starter here, it’s got to be for a starter that you plan on having around for sometime.

I wish all the best to Kyle with his rehab, and I’m going to miss watching him pitch, but the beat goes on.
Nobody is going to feel sorry for the Orioles.
Pick yourself up, dust yourself off, and go do what is necessary to increase the odds for the ’24 O’s and beyond.