Another update to MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 Prospects list, another awesome showing from the Baltimore Orioles’ minor league system. With this update, 6 Orioles minor leaguers find themselves in the Top 100, rather, in the Top 54.
This re-rank marks the first time any organization has claimed the number 1 spot for 5 straight rankings, beginning with the Orioles’ #1 ranking midway through the 2021 season. Keep in mind, this #1 ranking comes AFTER the likes of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg and company have all made it to the majors. And just to add a cherry on top, this marks the third year in a row that an Orioles prospect has been ranked in the Top 2 overall in these midseason rankings (Adley Rutschman in 2021, Gunnar Henderson in 2022, and Jackson Holliday in 2023).
Now that I’ve sufficiently gushed about the Orioles’ farm system, let’s take a closer look at how these 6 top prospects have performed, along with their chances of joining the big league club as part of September’s roster expansion.
Joey Ortiz (INF, Overall: 54th, O’s: 6th)
We got to see Ortiz with the big league club very briefly earlier this season, where he hit .212/.206/.242 over just 33 at-bats. Of course, we can’t come to any conclusions offensively based on this very small sample, but personally I was excited to see Ortiz with the club, and was really impressed by some of the plays he made on defense. There’s no doubt Ortiz has been absolutely mashing Triple-A pitching this season, to the tune of a .338/.392/.534 line and at some point that production should be rewarded. At 25 years old, Ortiz isn’t a young prospect, and I think he certainly would be an asset to the team, but the main challenge here is figuring out where he’d play and how often. A theme that will emerge as this post goes on is the fact that the Orioles have a very crowded infield (and whole team really), which is a great problem to have, but one that makes it challenging for prospects like Ortiz to get consistent major league at-bats. Calling up Ortiz and letting him battle it out with Mateo for a spot on the postseason roster is an interesting thought, but one that I think is relatively unlikely, all things considered.
September Call-Up Chances: 2.5/5
Samuel Basallo (C/1B, Overall: 50th, O’s: 5th)
This is an easy one. Basallo is nowhere near being ready for a September call-up, but man is he an exciting prospect. While splitting time between Delmarva and Aberdeen, Basallo is slashing .295/.383/.424, oh, and he’s still only 19 years old. It’s easy to get lost in the hype of the also-19-years-old Jackson Holliday, but let’s remember that being this good this young is not common. It will be exciting to see how Basallo continues to develop; his tools are undeniable.
September Call-Up Chances: 0/5
Coby Mayo (3B/1B, Overall: 28th, O’s: 4th)
While the odds of Mayo joining the big league club at any point this season are rather low, he’s not far away from being big-league-ready based on his production throughout his entire minor league career and especially in 2023. Mayo, while splitting time between Bowie and Norfolk, is hitting .284/.398/.558 to go along with his 21 HRs. Mayo has serious power, and is about as exciting a prospect as any for the O’s. Mayo has slowed down a little bit since his promotion to Triple-A, which should be expected, but it’s only a matter of time until he adjusts to the higher-level pitching just as he did in Double-A. Rumors of Mayo being dealt at the recent trade deadline came and went and it seems clear that the O’s want to do all they can to keep Mayo. With that being said, look to see him some time in 2024.
September Call-Up Chances: 1/5
Heston Kjerstad (OF, Overall: 24th, O’s: 3rd)
It will be very interesting to see what happens with Kjerstad and Cowser in the coming months. Both have absolutely torn up minor league pitching this season and deserve time at the big league level. With Cowser’s struggles in his brief stint with the Orioles, the team could choose to give Cowser some more time in Triple-A and give Kjerstad a shot to prove himself in the majors. In the 2023 season, Kjerstad is slashing .305/.377/.546 while splitting time fairly evenly between Bowie and Norfolk. Unlike Mayo, Kjerstad has kept up his torrid Double-A pace since being promoted to Triple-A. For what it’s worth, Kjerstad is not currently on the Orioles’ 40-man roster, but that wouldn’t stop the Orioles from calling him up if they think he could add even more of a spark to this offense. I view Kjerstad and Cowser pretty similarly right now and I do think one of the two will be with the O’s in September, with the slight edge going to Cowser right now, but seeing Kjerstad this season would be a welcome sight for O’s fans who have long awaited his arrival since being drafted second overall in the 2020 draft.
September Call-Up Chances: 3/5
Colton Cowser (OF, Overall: 14th, O’s: 2nd)
Another incredibly exciting prospect for the O’s is Colton Cowser. Cowser has flown through the minor leagues, progressing from Rookie and A-ball in 2021 to High-A, Double-A and Triple-A in 2022, to an eventual MLB call-up in 2023. Cowser is slashing .332/.461/.561 in Triple-A this season, yes, that’s an OPS above 1.000. Cowser struggled in his limited time at the MLB level, batting only .115 and showing limited power. Cowser did, however, show a good eye at the plate, walking 13 times in only 61 at-bats. I am not at all concerned about Cowser’s slow start – we saw the same thing from both Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson as they too took some time to adjust to MLB pitching after their initial promotions. If this was the Orioles of prior seasons, Cowser would have stayed with the big league club and would have been given the opportunity to work through his struggles with consistent major league at bats. Fortunately for the O’s, but less fortunate for Cowser right now, the Orioles are fighting for the best record in the entire MLB, so their tolerance for “MLB-adjustment” is relatively low right now. Despite the early struggles, I do expect Cowser to get another shot with the Orioles before the end of the season.
September Call-Up Chances: 4/5
Jackson Holliday (SS/2B, Overall: 1st, O’s: 1st)
Similar to Adley and Gunnar from prior seasons, Jackson Holliday is just so fun to talk about and there’s really not much more to say. After being promoted twice already this season, Holliday is slashing an incredible .336/.457/.531. As a reminder, Holliday does not turn 20 until December of this year. The Orioles have been aggressive at times with promoting their top prospects at a young age. Back in 2012, Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy, both 19 at the time, were promoted to the MLB. However, similar to the situation with Joey Ortiz, the Orioles are certainly not in desperate need of infield help right now. In a normal situation, I would say the chances of a team that is already performing extremely well choosing to call up a 19-year-old infielder in an already crowded infield are extremely low, but this is not a normal situation – Holliday is not a normal prospect. Pretty clearly the best prospect in baseball already, Holliday has done nothing but make a joke out of each level of the minor leagues he has been in, but as we know, the MLB is a whole different ball game (no pun intended). I still think it’s a bit of a longshot for the O’s to actually call up Holliday this season, but I’ll give it higher odds than I would have expected to at the start of the season, and man would it be exciting to see.
September Call-Up Chances: 3/5
As a Baltimore native, Zach is an avid Orioles and Ravens fan. After interning for the Baltimore Orioles, he currently works as a Senior Quantitative Risk Analyst for OneMain Financial and is a part-time graduate student studying Data Science at the University of Michigan.