Breaking Down Kevin Gausman

Since the Baltimore Orioles selected him with the fourth pick of the 2012 out of LSU, right-hander Kevin Gausman has been an enigma. As with most college pitchers selected that high, Gausman was expected to be a quick mover through an Orioles system that has been panned for their handling of pitchers in recent years.

And while Gausman did make it to the big leagues the next year, it’s probably fair to suggest that a lot of fans and personnel types probably expected more than 270-ish so-so innings from him by this point, entering his age-25 season. He’s by no means a bust, but is coming off neither his best ERA, strikeout rate or innings pitched marks for a season as he enters 2016. In short, he took a step back in some ways after 2014.

That also doesn’t mean there isn’t optimism for a Gausman breakout in 2016. Fellow BSL Orioles Analyst and FanGraphs colleague Paul Sporer was tasked with writing the player cap for Gausman’s 2016 season, and gave a glowing view of his future stock. You can and ought to read it here, but here are some of the excerpts that fans might find interesting. “He has an excellent fastball,” his splitter is a “big strikeout pitch” and finally just a single word — “Buy.” — in closing. Sporer, a noted pitching expert who releases a guide every offseason, is all-in on Gausman heading into what basically amounts as his senior season as an Oriole.

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Going into 2016, if any O’s starter has even a remote possibility of emerging as an ace, it’s Gausman. So why not take a look at what some of the numbers say, and see if we think there’s a good chance of it happening?

What the Numbers Say: 4.25 ERA/4.10 FIP/3.80 xFIP
Breakdown: Essentially, Gausman outpitched what his final ERA was. It’s not hard to see why, with a good strikeout rate, not many walks and a reasonable groundball rate. In fact, it could have been quite a bit better if Gausman wasn’t so home run prone. He hasn’t always been that way — in fact in his first year, he was the absolute opposite — but the variance in his home run rate is what’ll probably determine year-to-year if he becomes a star, or just a really, really good starter.

What the Numbers Say: 3.82 ERA projected by Steamer, 3.50 by “fans” at FanGraphs
Breakdown: The computers and the fans are still believers in his future. It’s not surprising that the fans still see him as the uber ace that came out of LSU, and it’s not unreasonable to think a tweak here or two will get him there. The computers likely see his numbers aside from his weird usage and being jerked around, though I suspect the answer might be somewhere in the middle. With or without Yovani Gallardo — and I suspect we’ll get an answer there soon — an ERA in the middle of these two might be enough to headline this rotation. Make of that what you will.

What the Numbers Say: 8.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9
Breakdown: On the surface these are both very solid, but most importantly they’re also better than Gausman’s career marks. This also bodes well for Gausman’s future, as few pitchers with his raw stuff can command it like he has.

What the Numbers Say: 1.4 HR/9
Breakdown: The AL average mark for starters is 1.1 per nine innings, or 1.08 without rounding. Essentially, that means Gausman allows an extra home run every three or so games more than the average AL starter. He can make up for it a bit with a slightly above-average strikeout rate (7.3 AL average in 2015), but this is the sort of thing that will prevent him from taking the leap to the next tier of starters. Let’s call it….the Phil Hughes conundrum. Now, Gausman doesn’t have a history with this happening, and his batted-ball rates were still pretty good, so there’s a fair chance it was a one-year aberration.

Gausman allowed 17 home runs in 2015, and here was the breakdown:

12 on four-seam fastballs
1 on sliders
2 on splitters
2 on forkballs

So basically, assuming the forkball/splitter is the same pitch with some diagnosis issues, that would be the pitch that was sort of the primary long ball culprit outside of the fastball, which isn’t surprising. Here’s also a troubling number: Gausman allowed a slugging percentage ABOVE .400 on every pitch that he threw with any regularity in 2015. That’s the sort of thing that makes a one-tweak breakout feel less likely.

What the Numbers Say: 44.7 percent GB rate
Breakdown: This is something projections look fondly upon. He’s just a tick above the league-average rate, but that combined with a penchant for strikeouts and limiting walks is usually the holy trinity for pitchers moving forward. Home runs complicate things, but there’s a lot to like here still.

What the Numbers Say: 17.1 percent line-drive rate, 27.4 percent hard-hit rate, 77.6 percent contact rate against
Breakdown: These are career lows. Simply put, it’s hard to construe that as anything other than a positive.

What the Numbers Say: 10.9 percent swinging strike rate
Breakdown: This is a career high for Gausman, and by a full percentage point. Essentially, his swing-and-miss stuff continues to evolve, especially the splitter/forkball. The league-average mark for AL starters last year was 9.2 percent — a mark Gausman was well above.

What the Numbers Say: 54.9 percent first-pitch strike rate
Breakdown: This is a career low. The AL average is 61 percent. Of the 17 home runs Gausman allowed in 2015, 14 came with him either even in the count (five) or behind (nine). Count leverage is huge for any pitcher, however.

Take a look at what AL starters did when starting a count up or down:

After 1-0: .821 OPS against
After 0-1: .613 OPS against

This is why your dad and every old baseball man you ever talk to says the best pitch in baseball is strike one. It’s an old saying, but that doesn’t make it any less true.

What the Numbers Say: 95.2 mph average fastball in 2015
Breakdown: Gausman throws gas. This isn’t surprising. Among AL pitchers who threw over 100 innings last year, here’s whose four-seamer was faster: Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Richards, Yordano Ventura and Joe Kelly. That’s it; four pitchers out of 66. Of all the things you can learn and be taught as a pitcher, this isn’t one of them.

What the Numbers Say: .280/.333/.480 opponents’ line on sliders in 2015; 7.4 percent whiff rate
Breakdown: My understanding was that this was Gausman’s bread and butter — or powdered donut, as it were — coming out of LSU. But the slider has been battered to the tune of a .323/.353/.538 line in his short big league career. That’s also come with just a 7.9 percent whiff rate; in fact, the 7.4 percent whiff rate it produced in 2015 was lower than his four-seam fastball’s. I’m not sure what to make of this, other than to say it has fallen to his third-most used pitch, and it quite frankly has not been good. He can’t scrap it — he doesn’t have the repertoire to do that right now — but it’s just not a useful pitch for him at this point.

What the Numbers Say: .216/.286/.412 opponents’ line on splitters in 2015; 23.2 percent whiff rate
Breakdown: Now this is just half the battle, as the forkball produced a .237/.275/.447 line with a 16.8 percent whiff rate in a similar number of instances. That’s why I doubt he’s throwing them as separate pitches, at least until I hear otherwise. Nevertheless, that’s a solid secondary pitch, but it’s still way, way too easy to elevate. Or maybe drive is the better word, since both pitches still do manage groundball rates over 50 percent. To me, this suggests it’s a pitch that flattens out when left up, and gets POUNDED.

I still think Gausman’s one solid tweak away from becoming an ace, but after extensive study I’ve become less convinced it’ll be this season. I just think each of his pitches have been too hittable in the past for him to make that full step in just one year. I still believe it’s in there, and hopefully it’s not after he leaves the club — a la Jake Arrieta.