Breaking Down Orioles Steamer Projections

We’re now into what Murray Chass so lovingly called “silly season” in his blog on Sunday. With a slowed-down free-agent market that’ll heat up a bit more the closer we get to spring training, we at least have fair ideas of what teams are going to look like heading into the season. Sure, there are still a few solid chips out there looking to be cashed in, but for the most part, we’ve got a solid shell to look at as far as how teams are going to look.

Projection season is also warming up, and our friends over at Fangraphs have started working through Steamer projections to take a look at what 2017 might look like. Not only have they published their first look at 2017 projected standings, but also depth charts by position based on WAR.

We’ll run through all that today.

Let’s start with catcher, where the Orioles are ranked 17th, with a projected cumulative WAR of 2.2. Newly-acquired catcher Welington Castillo is projected to hit .248/.310/.411 with a WAR mark of plus-1.7. The remaining half-win is expected to be made up by Caleb Joseph (0.4 in 192 PA) with a little help from Francisco Pena.

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The projection expects about the same production from Castillo as last season, though it’s a dip in his slash line (.264/.322/.423 last season) with only a one-point drop in wRC+. Basically speaking, that’s the difference between hitting in Arizona and Baltimore. For what it’s worth, it’s a roughly similar projection for Matt Wieters (1.8 fWAR, 89 wRC+) in a similar amount of playing time. One would have to assume Wieters gets a bigger deal than Castillo, so that’s a net win, no?

Steamer is fairly high on Orioles first basemen heading into 2017. Of the 700 projected plate appearances for first basemen, Chris Davis is projected to grab nearly 600 of them, with Trey Mancini, Christian Walker and Adam Brett Walker divvying up the remaining 100 or so evenly. Davis is expected to put up an fWAR of 2.4, with virtually no value coming from any of the other three first basemen. That puts the O’s ahead of the Mets — Lucas Duda, Michael Conforto and Wilmer Flores — and just behind Wil Myers and Alex Dickerson of the Padres.

The projections expect Davis to hit .230/.334/.475, which comes out to a .345 wOBA and a wRC+ of 114. Disappointingly, that’s far closer to Davis’ 2016 season (.340 wOBA, 111 wRC+) than his 2015 (.390, 148). It’s still ample production at first base; it’s just a far cry from when Davis hit .262/.361/.562 in his walk year. With six years left at $23 million per annum, it’s probably fair to say fans are expecting more from him this season.

Jonathan Schoop and company rank 18th among second baseman depth charts at 1.7 fWAR projected for this season. Steamer has Schoop hitting .261/.296/.449 while taking up 1.6 of the projected wins. Fill-in Ryan Flaherty is projected for 140 plate appearances with little-to-no effect. That’s only a slight decline expected for Schoop, who was worth 2.0 fWAR last season as he hit .267/.298/.454 with passable second base defense while playing every game — something Steamer doesn’t forecast a repeat of. In other words, if he plays in 162 games again as opposed to the 130 or so he’s projected for, he’s expected to give the O’s basically the same season he did in 2016.    

Shortstop is a particularly sore spot for the Orioles, as Steamer doesn’t forecast a real bounce-back season from J.J. Hardy. The O’s are 23rd, behind the Minnesota Twins — Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Escobar and Engelb Vielma — and just ahead of a wild amalgamation of six players for the New York Mets. On the plus side, Steamer has Hardy going over 500 plate appearances for the first time since 2014. Unfortunately, it has him hitting just .251/.295/.382, which is square in the middle of his terrible 2015 season (50 wRC+) and his quasi-rebound 2016 campaign (88).

Basically speaking, he’ll still be a passable shortstop — including a plus defender — but by no means a standout at the position. Steamer expects him to post an fWAR of 1.3, with Flaherty picking up the slack to get the O’s to 1.5 overall for the position.

For all the disappointment of shortstop, it’s a former shortstop who has the Orioles checking in as the top dogs at third base. Just two teams — Baltimore and Toronto — figure to have a WAR mark exceeding 6.0 at the position, with Baltimore atop the list at 6.3 — with nearly all of it coming from Manny Machado.

Machado is coming off a season over 6.0-plus WAR, and Steamer sees that continuing, with an increase in offensive production despite no forecasted change in batting average. Machado hit .294/.343/.533 last season, while the projections see him jumping ever so slightly to .294/.355/.529 — a six-point jump in wOBA and a four-point increase in wRC+. Basically speaking, there’s no reason Baltimore’s 24-year-old sensation should not be in the mix for MVP honors next season, all things considered.

On the plus side, Hyun-Soo Kim is not projected for too much of a downturn in left field. After hitting .302/.382/.420 last season, Kim is slated to bat .282/.352/.429 this time around while getting into an added 20 or so games. It’s still a drop — 10 points in wRC+ and 14 points in wOBA — but it’s not a total collapse. Unfortunately, with iffy defense it means just a combined 1.2 WAR for the team between Kim, Dariel Alvarez and Anthony Santander — good for just 18th overall.

The bar to clear is fairly high in the corner outfield as one might expect, offensively. Right behind the O’s are the White Sox, who are projected for a .288/.340/.431 season out of Melky Cabrera. That would seem to be a solid triple-slash line, but again with shaky defense that would come out to just a one-win player. Anyway, a lot hinges on whether Kim can either sustain his walk rate — probably not terribly questionable — or improve his defense, which seems to be more questionable. Though then again, one-year defensive stat samplings aren’t always that illuminating. The Orioles could still look to upgrade here, but Kim is a fairly good bet at his price.

Center field is a particularly deep position, with Adam Jones and company projected to finish 11th at the spot in WAR. That’s still figuring a big jump for Jones production-wise — 1.4 WAR for last year up to 2.5 — but it also puts the team in a mix of clubs all around the same spot. The Washington Nationals — Adam Eaton and friends — are also expected to put together a 2.5 mark, but the difference between 10th and 17th on the list is just a half-win.

The jump for Jones is primarily power-based, as he hit .265/.310/.436 last season and is forecasted to hit .270/.312/.462 this time around. That doesn’t get him back to his pre-2015 production — when he was routinely 15-20 percent above average — but it’s expected to push him back over the average mark. He had a 96 wRC+ mark last season and is slated for a 104 this time around. With at least decent defense, he still should be plenty valuable.

Right field is the danger zone for the Orioles right now, and perhaps the most easily upgradable spot on the entire roster. Right now? This current batch of projected players in right field is projected for 0.0 WAR. Zero-point-zero. Steamer isn’t particularly high on 2015 Rule 5 pickup Joey Rickard (.261/.327/.371), with Alvarez and Aneury Tavarez slated for 210 plate appearances of, well, nothingness.

On the plus side, there are still a fair number of intriguing options that could play right for the O’s, who rank 30th out of 30 depth charts among right field situations. The most interesting corner outfielders who remain include Michael Saunders (0.8 projected WAR), Colby Rasmus (1.2), Brandon Moss (0.3), Austin Jackson (0.8), Desmond Jennings (N/A), Rajai Davis (0.5), Jose Bautista (2.6)….or perhaps the biggest elephant in the room, Mark Trumbo (1.0). Maybe even a reunion with Nolan Reimold on the cheap could make sense, but it’s clear the Orioles need to address right field in some form or fashion before spring training starts.

Similarly, DH is not projected to be a strong suit for the Orioles. Just three AL teams — the Rangers, Rays and White Sox — are slated to get less production out of their designated hitters than the Orioles (0.1 fWAR). Christian Walker is slated at present to the get the lion’s share of the playing time, and is expected to hit .250/.307/.422 in those 420 plate appearances. Behind him are Mancini, Adam Brett Walker and Davis, a group that is slated to hit .251/.308/.428 on the whole. That’s pretty uninspiring, considering AL DH’s hit a robust .258/.330/.480 last season.

Just my two cents, but the best and cheapest way to find production at DH would be to sign both Pedro Alvarez and Trevor Plouffe in a platoon. A platoon DH situation would be awfully unique — it’s hard to justify two players on a 25-man roster to just DH — but Plouffe could also allow the Orioles to play Machado at shortstop more, and he throttles lefties, something Alvarez struggles with. One could probably sign those two for a combined $10 million this year, if not less.

Based on the last few seasons, it’ll probably surprise few that the Orioles are ranked ahead of just four rotations heading into next season. Interestingly enough, it’s a rotation fronted by a former Orioles starter — Miami with Wei-Yin Chen — which is just behind Baltimore. Nevertheless, expectations are fairly low for the group fronted by Kevin Gausman, as they’re expected to cobble together a collective WAR of just 10.2, more than a half win ahead of the Marlins but also more than a half win behind the No. 25 Brewers, who have just one starter — Junior Guerra — projected for a WAR over 2.0.

The same is true about the O’s, who have Gausman (3.1) and then nobody else over 1.7 (Wade Miley).  

Here’s how the top-five shakes out for the O’s:

 

• Gausman – 3.1
• Miley – 1.7
• Chris Tillman – 1.4
• Dylan Bundy – 1.2
• Ubaldo Jimenez – 1.0

 

Perhaps what’s most distressing is that Yovani Gallardo — last offseason’s big-ish ticket item — isn’t even among the top-five projected starters at 0.9. More distressing yet is that there isn’t an obvious upgrade available. Jason Hammel would certainly make sense, but there’s a reason why he’s switched agents and had a rocky free agency thus far. There are questions about his stuff and his elbow health, and given the situation around Gallardo missing time last year, it probably wouldn’t make too much sense to double down on a 30-something pitcher with declining stuff. Add to this the lack of movable assets in the farm system with which to acquire a starting pitcher — with the exception, perhaps, of Chance Sisco — and it’s a tough bunch to upgrade.

On a positive closing note, the bullpen projects to be very good again this season. Steamer has the Orioles bunch tied with Boston for No. 9 in MLB with a group WAR of 4.0, but in this instance it’s good to be top heavy, which is fairly true of this group. Zach Britton is slated again to be terrific (2.1 WAR), with Brad Brach, Mychal Givens and Darren O’Day all at least worth a half-win.

One name that pops up and has for a few years now is Oliver Drake, who is beloved by Steamer for some reason or another. He’s projected for more than a strikeout per inning and an ERA of 3.62 in 35 innings. All of that is despite him throwing just 18 big league innings — albeit with a 4.00 ERA and 10.5 K/9 — as a 29-year-old last season. Still, it appears the Orioles would do well do give him some more run on the front end of the bullpen heading into 2017 — his age-30 season.

So, any guesses what a roster like this is projected to finish like in 2017?

In short, it’s not terribly great. The Orioles are projected to finish 76-86. That’s just one game ahead of the Minnesota Twins — who lost 103 games last season — and tied with the Atlanta Braves. That’s coming off an 89-win season last year when projections were also down on the Orioles.

Do you think this is a 76-win team? Why or why not? Are there moves you think that can get them over the hump and into playoff contention?