Bring on June for the O’s

After starting May with 2 wins and 3 losses, I previewed the remaining 23 games of the month:

http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2010/05/heading-to-minnesota-with-23-games-left.html

I thought a 13-10 stretch to end May was possible, and the O’s may have gotten close had they not given away games on the 15th to Cleveland, and the 27th to Oakland. The O’s failed to take advantage of an opportunity to show improvement, and are just 8-13 in the 21 games since that blog linked above. Let us say that the O’s split these last two games in Toronto, and end the month at 16-35. Horrible.

What can you do? Those games are over now, you can only look forward. With that in-mind, let us take a look at June for the Birds.

June 1st-3rd @ New York Yankees
June 4th – 6th vs. Boston Redsox
June 7th Off
June 8th – 10th vs. New York Yankees
June 11th – 13th vs. New York Mets
June 14th – 16th @ San Francisco
June 17th Off
June 18th – 20th @ San Diego
June 21st Off
June 22nd – 24th vs. Florida
June 25th – 27th vs. Washington
June 28th Off
June 29th – 30th vs. Oakland

Goals / Thoughts:

1) The O’s will end June having played a total of 77 games, or roughly 1/2 of their 2010 season. During the month they will play 26 games, with 17 at home, have a West Coast swing, face the National League 15 times, and have 4 days off.

Stubbornly, I am going to continue to believe this team will play better at some point. I think a 13-13 month is possible. 1 win in NYY, 2 vs. Boston, 1 vs. NYY, 2 vs. NYM, 1 in SF, 1 in SD, 2 vs. Florida, 2 vs. DC, 1 vs. Oakland.

This would have the Orioles ending June with a 29-48 record. For the O’s to ever close the gap on their won/loss record, they are going to have to play over their head for a sustained period. Right now I’ll settle for a .500 month.

2) I would hope to see Roberts and Gonzalez in an O’s uniform in-time for the West Coast trip. I’m thinking their first games back are against the Marlins.

2a) Pie is ahead of schedule and also targeting a late June return. It would be great if he could make it a trio of returns to end the month.

3) Probably the most important event of the month will happen on the first off-day June 7th. That is the night the June Amateur Draft begins with the 1st and supplemental rounds.

Our friends at PNR Scouting (http://pnrscouting.com) and Draft America (http://www.draftamerica.com/) will continue to provide outstanding coverage.

Personally, while I will not find the selection of Tallion disappointing, I still continue to hope for the addition of Colon.

4) After the birth of his daughter, Nolan Reimold returned to the AAA Norfolk last-night. Between his Achillies’ injury, and the impending birth; Reimold has had plenty to deal with this year. Not everyone is able to compartmentalize and perform. Hopefully we will see him now able to relax, and begin to play to his potential. As soon as he starts to put together a couple of games with good results, I would promote him back to Baltimore.

5) With the two remaining games here in May, Jones is batting .286 (.698 OPS) for the month. With his confidence improving, he is due for a breakout month. He reduced his K’s in May, would be nice to see him improve his walks in June.

6) Wieters had a .686 OPS in April, and has a .685 OPS in May. Frankly if this does not begin to dramatically improve, there is a major kink in the plan. Please note, I’m not saying that if Wieters is middling/mediocre in June that his career is over. I’m not saying that at all. He has made major strides defensively. I do think the Winter spent improving his athleticism has helped. I do think his future as a consistent All-Star caliber player is sound. However, for the O’s to dramatically improve in the near-term, Wieters has to evolve into the MVP talent he was billed as. He does not have to become Mauer this month, but it is time to get going a bit.

7) You want to see Millwood, Guthrie, Wigginton, and Scott stay healthy and productive. The O’s may elect to not trade any of those 4, but each them will hold some value at the trading deadline.

8) I want to see Hernandez and Berken increasingly used in higher-leverage situations out of the bullpen.

9) Snyder is finally showing signs of life at AAA with a .324 average, and .775 OPS during his last 10 games. Will he be able to put together an entire month at that level?

10) Bell also has a .324 average during his last 10 games, and has raised his overall OPS to .737. I’d love to see him put up a scorching couple of weeks and force the O’s to look at him. I continue to believe the O’s would be a better team today with Bell at 3rd, Tejada at SS, and Izturis on the bench.

11) Even without a spot in the rotation, I have to think that Arrieta will make his Major League Debut at some point during this month. With the O’s struggling like they are, they will not be able to keep his talent in the Minors any longer.

12) Markakis has rather strange split stats so far in 2010. He has a .981 OPS against LHP (57 at-bats), and just a .780 OPS against RHP (124 at-bats). Markakis has been productive this year (.839 OPS in April, .847 OPS in May) but the O’s need a month where he is not just at career levels (.838 career OPS), but shows the ability to carry the team. I still think Markakis is closer to the player that had a .897 OPS for all of 2008 than what we have seen so far this year. If he wants to again approach those levels, he needs to raise his production in June.

13) Matusz has been horrible in 3 of his last 4 starts. Obviously that can not continue. The league made an adjustment to him, and he has to adjust back. He has allowed at-least 7 hits in 7 of his 10 starts. For a guy with his control, I think 20 walks in 54.2 innings is a bit excessive.

14) Bergesen had 6 starts in May, and was 3-1 with a 4.26 era. In 38 innings, he allowed 43 hits, 4 homers, with 10 walks, and 8 k’s. If he can replicate that in June, you can again state you have an effective back of the rotation starter.

By the time the O’s take the field against Florida on the 22nd, I am hoping to see a 25 man roster that looks like:

Millwood, Guthrie, Matusz, Bergesen, Tillman

Hernandez
Arrieta
Gonzalez
Simon
Ohman
Berken
Albers

Roberts 2nd
Pie LF
Markakis RF
Wieters C
Tejada SS
Scott DH
Wigginton 1st
Jones CF
Bell 3rd

Reimold, Izturis, Tatum, Patterson

I’d find at-bats for Reimold in LF, 1st and DH with the plan being to move at-least 1 of Scott and Wigginton by the trading deadline. When that trade occurred, Reimold would take over full-time.

Moves made to get to that roster:

A) Tejada to SS, Izturis to bench, Lugo released, Bell promoted.
B) Arrieta promoted, Hendrickson released.
C) Roberts activated, Moore released.
D) Gonzalez activated, Castillo demoted.
E) Pie activated, Montanez demoted.
F) Simon activated, Mata demoted.
G) Reimold promoted, Atkins released.