There might be something of a fire sale going on in Atlanta.
After dealing top closer Craig Kimbrel to the Padres last year and elite shortstop Andrelton Simmons to the Angels just a week or so ago, FOX Sports national writer Ken Rosenthal reported that a source informed him that anyone in the Braves organization making significant money was slated for the trade block. That was quickly contested by the Braves organization itself, as one might expect it would be, but Rosenthal has enough credibility that the possibility should at least be entertained — along with how, specifically, the Orioles could benefit from a theoretical Braves fire sale.
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Let’s go through who is actually owed future money on these Atlanta teams first. We can omit C A.J. Pierzynski, who the club just signed this offseason, and hopefully we can omit LF Dion Toscano and (more importantly) SP Julio Teheran, both of whom are signed to cheap cost-certainty deals for the immediate future. That leaves us with: COF Nick Swisher, CF Michael Bourn, 1B Freddie Freeman, RF Nick Markakis, SS Erick Aybar, IF Hector Olivera, CF Cameron Maybin, and RP Jason Grilli. This is an amazingly diverse group, and there’s a lot here for the Orioles to pick through, even if the best players either won’t be dealt, or won’t be dealt to Baltimore.
CF Michael Bourn (1 year/$15 million) and CF Cameron Maybin (1 year/$8.1 million with option)
Neither of these guys should be top targets for the Orioles. Bourn’s contract is a bit misleading — the Cleveland Indians are paying a third of that $15 million already, and surely any deal would have Atlanta picking up another chunk of the tab — but Baltimore already has a centerfielder. Now, depending on how big that chunk is, Bourne could be a great 4th OF option, but we’re talking about a $3 million commitment or so from Baltimore for that to be worth it. Maybin has more upside, and a 2016 option, but to reach that upside you want him in center everyday. That’s not going to happen.
COF Nick Swisher (1 year/$15 million) and RF Nick Markakis (3 years/$33 million)
These guys, on the other hand, feel a lot more likely. Markakis needs no introduction, and quite publicly demonstrated last year that the O’s health worries about him were unfounded — at least in terms of staying on the field. On the other hand, his power has basically evaporated, but Markakis has always been widely variable from year to year at the plate. If the Braves defray some of the cost of that contract — maybe $10 million over its remaining lifetime — it’s easy to see him back in Baltimore. That’s how bad the corner outfield situation was last year. Swisher can come too, if the Braves eat a bit of salary (as with Bourn, the Indians are covering $5 million of the 2016 salary already, which one would expect to be passed on down the line). Markakis is a more interesting get than Swisher, but neither play OF defense well anymore — but then, that’s never stopped Baltimore from plugging guys into the outfield corners before.
SS Erick Aybar (1 year/$8.75 million) and IF Hector Olivera (5 years/$55.8 million* with option)
Woo, that price tag on Hector Olivera. The guy is 30 years old, has 90 PA of MLB action to his name, and is signed for the next five seasons to fairly big money — with options! A 99 OPS+ for a middle infielder is fine in the current league offensive environment, but there’s nothing saying that’s for real, yet, and no matter how well he scouts that’s a lot of money to take on without a proven track record. I doubt the Braves are going to have much luck moving that deal to anyone, and their acquisition of the deal itself was symbolic — it represented a buy-in to the Cuban market that I suspect would be undercut by them trying to move him again. It’s there to tell future Cuban players that the Braves are interested in players coming out of that part of the world (even if it was originally inked by LA), and I think at the end of the day they hold on to it. As for Aybar, he’s a hot commodity — but the Braves are probably better served holding onto him for the deadline than they are dealing him now. Either way, between Hardy, Machado, and Schoop, neither guy has a path to everyday work in Baltimore.
* This figure includes the signing bonus amount promised to Olivera by the Los Angeles Dodgers; it remains unclear who is paying that portion of the contract. If the acquiring team is not on the hook for Olivera’s signing bonus, Olivera is signed to a 5 year/$32.5 million deal, which is still pretty intimidating.
1B Freddie Freeman (6 years/$118.5 million)
And here’s the big ticket item that’s actually worth it. If the Orioles acquired Freddie Freeman, they’d be essentially spending Chris Davis money for a younger, more consistent, all-around better left-handed hitting first baseman. The Orioles would take on all the money in this deal, that’s not contested — the question is, do they have the pieces to actually make this trade happen? It might take something along the lines of Jonathan Schoop, Hunter Harvey, Kevin Gausman and any two additional prospects the Braves want from the Baltimore organization — and that’s perfectly fine by me. I remain skeptical, however, that the Braves both want to move a guy like Freeman and won’t have better suitors than Baltimore. If neither of those is the case, however, the Orioles need to make this happen.
RP Jason Grilli (1 year/$3.5 million with option)
Grilli might be the most realistic acquisition for Baltimore on this entire slate. He is very much not Darren O’Day, but a $3.5 million one-year veteran relief investment with a team option, especially a team option that only has a $250k buyout, would be very appealing to this front office. The only question is whether or not Baltimore’s internal scouting and analytics people think the 39-year-old Grilli still has anything left to offer — and if the coaching and clubhouse people think he’s a good fit. Both will matter if the Orioles are going to pick up a guy who has declined in effectiveness over the past few years.
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My preference, of course, would be to acquire Freddie Freeman. It would neatly sidestep overpaying for Chris Davis while still properly filling the hole he left in Baltimore’s lineup. My instinct, however, is to think that if the Orioles take advantage of the Braves’ firesale at all, they’ll pick up Nick Markakis and Jason Grilli. That’s an entirely defensible haul, considering how little it should cost them. But if Dan Duquette and his front office are seriously committed to spending their assets to improve the team — both their monetary and organizational assets — getting Freeman would instantly set this team up to win both in 2016 and in years to come. The question is: are the Braves really willing to move him?
Jonathan is a contributing writer for VICE Sports. His work has previously appeared in Sports on Earth, Baseball Prospectus, The Classical, and ESPN’s SweetSpot Network. Born in central Maryland, Bernhardt currently lives in the New York metropolitan area.