BSL Orioles Roundtable: 25 Days of Christmas

A flurry of activity around the league has generated headlines, but rumors are always stuffing themselves in our stockings and stirrups.¹ With the winter meetings right around the corner, the BSL Orioles Analysts traded thoughts on the team’s offseason activities and the possibility of some fresh new faces in Baltimore next year.

Discuss what you want to see the Orioles unwrap this holiday season on the BSL Forums.

The Orioles seem content to let top 2014 performers Nelson Cruz and Andrew Miller walk and may not be a lock to resign Nick Markakis. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s AL East foes in Boston and Toronto seem to be loading up for the next few years. Are you concerned by moves made by the rest of the AL East as the Orioles stand pat?

Jeff Long: If you think 2015 is our last great chance to win a World Series then you should probably be concerned. For me the game is how do the O’s remain competitive while not mortgaging their future in 2015 and beyond. My biggest fear coming into this offseason was that the O’s would shoot for 2015 and deal with 2016 and beyond later, making big moves and pushing all their chips into the middle of the table. Dan Duquette’s strategy has, to this point anyway, been more measured which is a good sign. Nobody wins the division in December, and I think there are still a lot of ways to improve what was a 94 win true talent team last season. I doubt the AL East will be “down” again in 2015 and beyond so it’ll be a battle, but one that the O’s seem well-positioned to fight for more than just one season.

Rob Shields: No matter who is in charge of the Orioles, they always seem to move slowly. Last year, they didn’t look like they would do much and then all of a sudden, Ubaldo and Cruz were Orioles. I don’t think you ever make panic moves because other teams in the division are getting better but what those moves should make you do is understand that you can’t just assume that a healthy Manny and a healthy Wieters will solve your issues. This team has some upside on the roster as currently constructed and that has to be taken into account but you do need to improve some of the other areas, especially your corner OF spots.

Jonathan Bernhardt: The Donaldson trade is a huge win for Toronto, in my opinion, but I’m still not ultimately that scared of the Blue Jays until they show they can establish consistency in the rotation — and since I’m not a huge believer in Marcus Stroman as a starter and only a bit less dubious about Aaron Sanchez, I’m consequently not too impressed with the Jays unless and until they go out and get a big arm. The Red Sox have an even more exaggerated issue here than the Jays — dithering around with outfielders and third basemen while their rotation is Buchholz and four unknown quantities. Red Sox fans love their young arms; I don’t. The Rays and Yankees remain the biggest concerns to me still, even with Friedman’s departure to Los Angeles; if the Yankees are willing to spend — and they’re one of the teams in the mix for Andrew Miller, and have been looming in some other conversations — they should be able to fix that rotation and bounce back into the mix.

Patrick Dougherty: I’m steering a steady boat. I expected Cruz to leave, and I never expect him to replicate 2014 again. I expected Miller to leave because he wants gobs of money, and I’m on record saying many times that I thought the Orioles were buying high on him in the first place. It worked out last year, but I don’t think he’ll be that good year in and year out. Markakis is a nice-to-have because he’s a great story, but he’s really pretty average. The Red Sox are the only team that scares me because they should have been better in 2014 than they were, but I think the core talent of the Orioles is good enough to compete with them regardless of their California imports. Moreover, I like that the Orioles’ didn’t cannonball into free agency this offseason. The important pieces are in place for this team to have a serious hope of competing in 2015 and beyond. The pieces will come together soon enough.

Chris Stoner: The moves of the O’s AL East Division foes never phase me. 2014 was an aberration (the division being down as a whole) in my opinion. Generally I believe you can expect multiple ALE teams capable of winning 90+ games, and that you will need to win 95+ to win the division. Think it has been easy to anticipate that with the revenue streams of NY and Boston (plus capable Front Offices), and Tampa Bay’s highly accomplished Baseball Ops Department (we will see how they adjust to life after Friedman, and Maddon). Toronto won the Winter last year as well, we will see how their additions translate on the field. Right now they have the look to me of an 85 +/- win team – with some limitations in their rotation, and the OF (LF, CF).

While I start with that mindset (of not being concerned about the division brethren), I’m always concerned about the O’s. They have to control what they can control, and that is focusing on their own improvement.

The rumor mill links Dodgers OF Matt Kemp and Tigers OF Torii Hunter to Baltimore. Do you want to see either of these players roaming Camden Yards next season?

Note: The BSL staff traded thoughts on Torii Hunter before he returned to the Twins on a 1/$10.5M deal. It doesn’t sound like anyone here is too upset about not signing him.

JL: I’m kind of torn on this for a couple of reasons. Both guys are pretty awful defensively now despite decent reputations in the field. Neither guy is hitting like they used to, though Torii certainly has some pop left in his bat. Kemp has the upside factor being nearly a full decade younger than Hunter. Both have off-field issues as well. Kemp comes with a massive contract that would see the O’s allocate something like 15% of their payroll to one player if the Dodgers refused to eat any of it. Hunter has said some pretty terrible things which, despite his friendship with Adam Jones, would concern me in the locker room. Ultimately Dan Duquette will have to decide if what he believes they’ll be able to add on the field is worth the off-field costs (literal and figurative).

RS: Hunter is declining quickly. He is pushing 40 and has seen his fWAR go from over 5 to .3 in just a few seasons. He isn’t walking and the defense isn’t that good. In other words, I don’t want him at all. Kemp is interesting. He is owed 5/107, which is a lot of money. He missed a lot of games in 2012 and 2013 but played most of 2014. His second half in 2014 was huge and that is encouraging. Of course, the same can be said about Ubaldo before we signed him. Now, those 2 aren’t connected at all but the point is, just because you perform well to end a year doesn’t mean you have turned things around. I’m sure there is a deal out there that makes sense for the Orioles to acquire Kemp but I’m not sure how likely that deal is to actually happen. That being said, there is talk of “increased interest” by the Orioles and with Cruz gone, Nick leaning towards leaving and the Orioles likely losing Miller, they do have money to spend and if Kemp doesn’t cost you much player wise, you probably have to kick the tires on it and see what it takes.

JB: I’d love to see Matt Kemp in Baltimore. I don’t think Dan Duquette is willing to spend the pieces necessary to acquire him, and I’m not particularly sure he should, since I don’t buy the narrative that the Dodgers are going to deal Kemp instead of finding a suitor for Ethier (whom I want no part of in Baltimore, he makes too much money to platoon) and using Crawford as a bench guy, giving Joc Pederson a spot on the team. If Kemp’s available, Baltimore should go after him, but after Bundy and Hunter Harvey the Orioles farm system falls off pretty hard, and I don’t think any O’s fan wants to see either of those guys in a Kemp deal.

PD: I’d be willing to consider Hunter as a short-term DH. He’s been an above-average hitter for the last few years, and despite a dreadful walk rate, he’ll probably continue to be right around average for another season. He might not be as good as other AL DHs, but would he be better than anyone else the Orioles could slot into that role? Probably. Do I want the Orioles to consider him as anything more than a last resort? Absolutely not. Kemp, on the other hand, I am very interested in. LA would have to eat contract, and they might, but something has to give to move a player of that caliber, even after a few down seasons, and I’m more concerned about what it costs to acquire Kemp than what it costs to continue to employ him. He might not be a great defender, but a move to RF or LF, where he does have some experience, would help to mitigate that weakness. Plus, Camden Yards does have a smaller RF by a couple feet, so there’s that.

CS: I don’t see a scenario where LA eats enough of Kemp’s contract to want me to see the O’s add him. The advanced metrics with his defense, and his recent injury history also does not appeal.

Hunter is 40 in July, had a .319 on-base % in ’14, and his defense appears to have also declined. A 1 year deal might be livable if the O’s lost Markakis, but that would not be my preference.

The top of the FA starting pitching pool is shallow, but extremely talented. The Orioles might not shell out the contract needed to bring one of the biggest names to town. Who would you hire from the list of available free agents? Would you even bring anyone new onto the staff in the first place?

JL: I think I’d go after Jon Lester. I’m pretty confident that the ROI on Lester’s contract will be better than Scherzer, Shields, or anyone else on the free agent market (at least among the top tier of pitchers). There are a couple of other intriguing names, Brandon McCarthy for example, that I’d kick the tires on. My suspicion though is that those guys will end up signing for more than I’d be comfortable with. If I were Dan Duquette I’d be scouring the trade market to see if I could make something happen there that would help the team. We’d need to trade away some of our existing pitching talent if he does opt to add a legitimate starter to the rotation, but that’s a good problem to have in my opinion.

RS: I would deal Davis to the Marlins for Heaney(If the reports are true and that type of deal is potentially out there) I don’t want any of the FA starters for the deals it would take to get them. I would consider some of the guys on one year deals if we traded some pitchers and wanted a stop gap. Otherwise, give me the top young arm to go with the other talented arms we have.

JB: Realistically speaking, the Orioles are probably done with big ticket FA pitchers for a couple years. Jimenez was the biggest FA pitcher signing in franchise history last offseason and he’s been a disaster, and the team has so many #3 arms at the major league level that they simultaneously lack upside AND have no room for Kevin Gausman, which is quite a feat. The elite defense behind those pitchers has helped them quite a bit, but there’s still guys on the way up that will need to be able to challenge for spots with the expectation of getting them — not being thrown into Gausman’s minor league shuttle hell. Baltimore should focus on dealing one of Gonzalez or Norris, and honestly if the right deal comes along for Chris Tillman, Baltimore should take it.

PD: Assuming the demands of the cream of the crop were too high, I’d look into Brandon McCarthy, Ervin Santana, and Justin Masterson. McCarthy, not surprisingly, bounced back from a terrible 2014 start to be a steady performer in the Yankees’ rotation. If Ervin Santana’s contract demands have come down to reasonable levels… well, I wanted him more than Ubaldo anyway. Masterson might be a great buy-low candidate, but could also be yet another meh starter. As much as I love Miguel Gonzalez, there’s nothing pointing to sustainable success, and I’d rather stop that train a year too early rather than a year too late. Bringing someone on to perform well-but-not-spectacularly would free up some Major League pitching that can be swapped for other needs.

CS: The consensus among my BSL colleagues (and the majority of our posters) seems to be that with six viable starters, the O’s should be looking to trade one. I’m lukewarm on that idea, but I could be talked into moving Chen, Norris, or Gonzalez for the right return. (Part of the reason I’m lukewarm on moving one of them; is that I doubt their return will match what I think they provide. That isn’t me overvaluing them – I recognize their limitations – I just think what they can give the O’s is likely to exceed what they could bring back.) If the O’s did move one of them, I would like to add another starter. Could you get Justin Masterson for a year while he tries to reestablish value? Brandon Morrow? If the O’s wanted to aim higher, there are options. I’m not real excited about the prospects of spending (in years or money) what it would take for those higher end arms though.

If the offseason ended today, where would the Orioles finish in the division next season?

JL: Man, that’s tough. I think they’d finish second in the division with a Wild Card berth likely in that case. I expect the Red Sox to bounce back in a big way–they aren’t nearly as bad as they played last season. The Blue Jays are scary, sure, but they still haven’t addressed their biggest issue: pitching. The Yankees continue to grow older, something that signing free agents certainly won’t help in any significant way. Tampa Bay is probably closer than people think, but they still have some reloading to do, and I don’t know that 2015 is the year they’ll get it all back together.

I will say that in my mind the O’s and Boston are pretty close on paper. The difference between those two teams might be a handful of wins, so if you wanted to put the O’s in first and Boston second, I wouldn’t have a problem with that at all.

RS: Right now, I think we finish 2nd or 3rd in a very close race. As I write this, we are looking at Pearce, De Aza and Lough starting on the corners and we have a questionable pen in certain spots. We also don’t know when Manny and Wieters will be ready and how long it takes them to get back to the AS level form they each showed pre injury.

JB: Hard pick. Probably first or second, with the Rays taking the other spot. No one else has anything resembling a reliable rotation at this point.

PD: After they left the playoff race last season, I said that at least the Orioles were gifted two years of uncontested AL East supremacy and that we’d be back. My, how that has changed. I agree that Boston was better than they played last year, and recent additions will only help. I still put the Orioles at #1 or #2; I will never trust the Blue Jays.

CS: If the off-season ended today, I’d probably have the O’s 3rd in the East. I expect the complexion of the roster will be improved by the time the Winter Meetings ends, and certainly before the start of the New Year though.

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1. This is a solid baseball/Christmas pun that outright tops the trite “cold weather but a hot stove!” joke that I had in place before. I would sign this pun to 4/$57M in a heartbeat.