January always seems to be the quietest time in baseball, and for good reasons. It’s the farthest point away from the middle of the regular season, the big moves have already taken place at the Winter Meetings, and teams are too busy getting the guys they actually have ready for Spring Training, but they’re not actually there yet, so there’s nothing speculative to blow out of proportion. It’s clear that Robert Frost was writing about baseball in January in “Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening,” what with his imagery of stillness and quiet. Definitely not death like they tried to teach me in 6th grade English.
Anyway, that kind of quiet makes us here at BSL restless. Let’s shatter it with some Orioles talk. Join in on the BSL Forums.
Would you extend Chris Tillman? What (realistic) contract would you like to see the Orioles give him, and what would be your maximum allowance to bring him back?
Rob Shields: As I laid out in my article, I am fine with extending Tillman for 4 years. That deal will buy out one FA year. That being said, if they traded him, that’s ok. If they decided to wait, that’s ok too. I do agree that this isn’t something that has to happen now. It’s one of those things that if it happens, that’s fine. If it doesn’t happen, that’s fine too.
Jeff Long: I would consider extending Tillman, especially given the circumstances around the club’s roster construction at this point. The O’s roster is comprised of a lot of arb-eligible players, which means a lot of uncertainty around budgets and salary one, two, three years out from present day. As a result there’s a certain benefit to extending players, even through just their arbitration years, because it gives cost certainty around future payroll. Rob laid out a 4/$42MM deal for Tillman with an $18MM option for the fifth season. I think my comfort level is a little lower than that, and you probably need to include a buyout on the option year, so the overall total is probably right around Rob’s estimate, but more of it is tied into the buyout, and less into the annual salaries.
Chris Stoner: I thought Rob laid out a decent argument for extending Tillman, and I would not be overly opposed to the structure he suggested. However, with 3 years of team control remaining I don’t see it as a priority.
Patrick Dougherty: Because Tillman is guaranteed to be in Baltimore for the next 3 years if the Orioles want him there, I don’t see it as a huge priority. However, the roster as currently constructed only has a handful of guys inked for after 2015 and 2016. That creates flexibility, but also uncertainty. In this case, buying out a free agent year is less important to me than simply knowing what your books look like moving forward. Plus, if Tillman keeps this up, he could be a pretty reasonable contract at $10-12M AAV as Rob suggested.
It’s déjà vu: For weeks, the Orioles have been sort-of-kind-of linked to available outfielders Nori Aoki, Colby Rasmus, and Ichiro Suzuki, with Rasmus being the most commonly cited possibility. Give a quick Yes/No to each, and your reasoning behind that verdict specifically for Rasmus.
Note: This question was posed and answered before Aoki signed a 1-year deal with the San Francisco Giants for $4.7 million guaranteed and the possibility to make up to $12.5 million.
RS: I have zero interest in Ichiro. Don’t see what he gives us at this point. Aoki, depending on the contract, has some value and I would rather have him out there than what we have. Rasmus is the guy I want. He can be had for a reasonable deal, is still young and has very good upside. He has had close to a 5 fWAR season recently, has good power and will take a walk. He also will be playing for what is likely to be the biggest contract he will ever receive, so the motivation is also there.
JL: Aoki – Yes, Rasmus – Yes, Suzuki – No. Rasmus is fine. Personally I’d rather have Aoki than Rasmus, but I get the allure of Rasmus on a one year deal. Rasmus almost certainly has a higher ceiling than Aoki, and his power should play very nicely in Camden Yards. My preference is for Aoki simply because his floor is much higher than Rasmus’, and he brings a different skill set to the roster that Rasmus doesn’t possess. Aoki to me compliments the current roster better, but Rasmus definitely gives the O’s a chance for a Nelson Cruz-like breakout season in 2015.
CS: Showalter’s trip to visit Rasmus seemed to me to be less about recruiting, and more about determining if Showalter could be comfortable with the signing. It was my anticipation that if Showalter came out of the meeting feeling positive about what was discussed – that a contract would be quickly forthcoming. As Rasmus has yet to be signed, I’m not sure if that should be interpreted as the O’s deciding to pass – or if it is just another example of the O’s deliberate manner.
As a contact with Rasmus would likely be a 1 year deal; it feels like the O’s could finalize a contract if so desired. Rasmus would be my preferred candidate. It appears he has interest from the Cubs, and Rays. If the O’s want him, they should get it done.
I don’t hate the idea of Aoki. Like Rasmus, it would figure to be a 1 year deal. Quality defense, a legitimate lead-off option, and an even cheaper contract than Rasmus.
It’s hard to envision Ichiro being a fit, and I would be irritated by the signing.
PD: Rasmus: yes. Aoki: yes. Ichiro: no. Rasmus is a yes with the right price tag (as always), and he could be a decent buy-low candidate. He’s not going to do what Nelson Cruz did last year; Cruz had a down year or two, but he had established a solid baseline of excellent play and the Orioles lucked into a career year that was, in my opinion, possibly aided by the time off Cruz had for a PED suspension that allowed him to get healthy and come out firing while nobody knew what to expect. Even a good year for Rasmus is going to feature a low OBP and 25 homers, so while he’s got some positives, I would rather see the Orioles move away from an offense so reliant on the long ball. I’d rather have Aoki or go in-house and try to get a better player next year.
Look into your crystal ball and predict what Chris Davis does in 2014.
RS: Chris Davis, along with Schoop, are complete wild cards for 2015. If I had to put money on it, I would probably put Davis around an 840ish OPS and 33 homers.
JL: Chris Davis’ 2015 has to be one of the biggest questions in baseball right now. I’m going to hedge and say it’ll be something like his 2012 season (.270/.326/.501) which was good for a .352 wOBA and a 121 wRC+. Basically that’s a good middle ground because he’s not as good as his 2013 season, and he’s certainly not as bad as last season made him seem. A lot of people have thrown out a variety of reasons for Davis’ down 2014, but I do think that with a new hitting coach and an offseason to make adjustments, that Davis can bounce back.
CS: My anticipation is that Davis will be projected to produce similar to his 2012 season in most forecasts. My expectation is that he will produce somewhere between his ’12 and ’13 seasons.
PD: I think Davis bounces back in many respects, but he’ll never top 2013. He’s a lock to hit 30+ homers when healthy and not suspended, and he got an Adderall exemption for 2015. I’m glad that he’ll be treating his body and mind appropriately and legally within the bounds of MLB. At the same time, there are holes in his swing that were exposed late in 2013 and capitalized on in most of 2014. He’s not going to be a high-OBP guy unless he doesn’t miss balls and gets walked all the time. I say he’ll be around a lumpy .250 average and .290 OBP but put up 35 homers to go with it.
Do Manny Machado’s recent health issues concern you? Let’s start a fire on the message boards: do you consider him a long-term option to take over at shortstop, and would you move him there once age, contract expiration, or injury forces JJ Hardy to find a new home somewhere else (on the field or with a different team?)
RS: I’m not overly concerned with Manny’s long term health. The knee injuries he has had should be past him. At this point, I wouldn’t consider him for SS. The one thing the knee injuries may do is hurt his range some which will obviously be an issue at SS. Also, with his ability to play third so well, he would have to almost be as good defensively at SS to justify the move.
JL: Manny’s injury issues don’t concern me a great deal. Most of them seem fluke-ish and my hope is that there aren’t structural weaknesses in his knees that make him susceptible to ongoing injury concerns. With that said, I think his future position is going to be a function of what direction Dan Duquette and the rest of the front office take the team. Manny at SS likely means you’re giving up some defense for offense, which is just fine if his replacement at third base makes up for that loss. There’s a lot of moving pieces to this, and it’s hard for me to say whether or not I’d move Manny back to short. The most I can do is say that I don’t think the ship has sailed on Manny to SS, but the most likely scenario is for him to stay at third base where he’s one of the top 5 or so players at his position.
CS: Machado’s knee injuries do not concern me, but I do not see him as an option at SS at anytime going forward. As is, Hardy is signed through the ’18 season. Machado will have had too many years at 3rd to envision a position switch.
PD: I am concerned by Machado’s knees, both at short and third. That’s mostly a product of me not being a doctor or a physical therapist or in baseball, but two major surgeries before age 23 isn’t particularly comforting. I see Machado as having the potential to be a very good shortstop, but his frame lends itself to bulking up and hitting for some power, and that’s easier to do at third. He’s one of the best third basemen in baseball now, at 22. I’d have to have a really compelling reason to dump that for something more speculative.
Think like a GM or owner for a second and give Duquette a grade for this off-season as a businessman. Now, as a fan, what grade would you give him?
RS: As of today, he fails in both regards to me. They have gotten worse thus far this off-season. He hasn’t made the team better in the short term or the long term. He has a fan base ready to spend more and more money and he isn’t giving them reason to do so. Now, there is plenty of off-season left, so things can definitely change(as they did just one year ago) but the options are dwindling and there isn’t much left.
JL: It’s tough to grade the off-season because it isn’t complete and Duquette tends to do some of his best work in January and February. That said, I think you’d be hard pressed to give him anything less than a B+ as a businessman right now. There aren’t a lot of obvious spots to upgrade the team, and the roster construction dilemma I mentioned earlier means that he can’t really go out and spend $15MM/yr. on a guy like Cruz. The team will be better simply by getting full seasons from Manny and Matt Wieters, plus a bounce back from Chris Davis. I know that’s boring for fans, but it’s reality. The fan grade for Duquette has to be a bit lower. I think many fans understand not bringing back Miller given his high salary up in New York, but I imagine most fans wanted Cruz back. Letting him walk was the right move, but it probably wasn’t a popular one. I’d guess the fan grade for Duquette is probably something like a C.
CS: The O’s have a good chance of again contending in the AL East during ’15, but it is hard in my opinion to argue on behalf of Duquette this Winter to-date. Yes, not matching Atlanta’s offer for Markakis was sound logically. As was not matching the deals Seattle gave Cruz, or New York gave Miller. Patrick previously made the argument for De Aza as the internal option to replace Markakis, and I don’t disagree that similar production is likely. (I would argue that you went from having both, to having one – and that is change. However, that difference was not equal to wanting to match the contract Markakis got with the Braves.)
Should the O’s sign Rasmus (or Aoki) and Pearce becomes the full-time DH; a similar argument can be made for Pearce being an existing option to possibly approximate much of what Cruz would likely provide in ’15. (Again though, you are going from having both, to having one.)
Duquette has acquired some cheap depth this off-season, but not enough to give him any real accolades for those additions. (The Young contract was fine though.) I guess some might argue that he hasn’t made any moves to hurt the O’s long-term, and that in and of itself is a positive.
Beyond player acquisition; how about improving / further investing into in the rest of the Baseball Operations Department? The O’s organization has had 3 successful seasons with Duquette at the helm – but I believe adding additional brain power to the organization should be a priority. Some people who come at problems / discussion points with differing perspectives. Hires from outside of The Warehouse, which may challenge some of the O’s existing conventional wisdom.
Myself, I’d like to see some aggression. Not moves for the sake of moves, but moves to shore up what should be contender with a roster that could be facing significant turnover in the near-future.
Beyond that, I would have liked to have seen the O’s made a decision on Davis earlier this Winter. Either commit to him through an extension, or have been willing to trade him. As is, the O’s are going to depend on him to rebound in ’15 and too many moves have been made around them for the O’s to really be positioned to trade him now.
There remains 5 weeks or so until Pitchers and Catchers report. There is still time to augment the existing ML roster. Ultimately though, if you are grading Duquette as a business man or as a fan of the O’s – what can the Orioles hang their hat on? What have they accomplished since losing Game 4 of the ALCS? Even if you applaud some of the sound financial restraint, you can argue that the O’s have failed to capitalize on their ’14 success financially on or off the field. Meaning the team on the field has only regressed to date, and it’s unlikely that the inaction of the Baseball Ops department has helped with season ticket, and corporate box sales.
PD: The Duq avoided garish contracts to undeserving players. He made good business moves to maintain long-term solubility1 and, in my opinion, kept their window of opportunity open for a lot longer than many are giving the team credit for. There wasn’t a good reason to go all in right now, not with young stud pitchers showing up in Baltimore in a year, and not with injured players returning and potentially giving the team more of a boost than any free agent would have. If there’s nothing to buy, there’s no reason to go shopping. That’s why Duquette gets a B from me for the businessman’s offseason.
But oh boy, as a fan, I wanted so much more. I wanted to hear sources say that the Orioles were in trade talks. I wanted to be tempted to buy a shiny new jersey. I wanted to feel like the Orioles were dumping their chips in the pot while holding some extra cash in their back pocket to make this last. 2014 was just so fun! I wanted more pennants and more shots at the World Series. And those might still exist. But in an offseason bereft of a single exciting headline, I feel a little let down. So Duquette gets a D from me: he didn’t blow the house up, but he didn’t put a hot tub in either.
1. Jeff, could I borrow your MBA for a minute?
Patrick was the co-founder of Observational Studies, a blog which focused on the analysis and economics of professional sports. The native of Carroll County graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from Loyola University Maryland. Patrick works at a regional economic development and marketing firm in Baltimore, and in his free time plays lacrosse.