My BSL colleague Jonathan Bernhardt and I see the Oriole’s bullpen very differently. He thinks it could be the second-worst in the division whereas I think it could actually be second-best to only NYY’s. Here’s my case. 

(You can discuss this article on the BSL Board here.)

It’s no secret that the weakness of the 2016 Orioles as it stands right now is the rotation. The departure of Wei-Yin Chen leaves a lot of #3-#4 starter types at the top of the rotation with Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Kevin Gausman. Gausman certainly has frontline upside, but he can’t really be projected to perform like that when he’s never logged more than 25 appearances or 113 IP in a major league season. On the heels of back-to-back World Series appearances, including 2015’s win, we knew the Royals would inspire some bullpen-focused copycats and it seems the Orioles are one team taking it to heart.

A quick aside: the Yankees obviously are, too, and they’re even doing it better than the Royals at this point with that insane troika of Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, and Andrew Miller. Bullpen is definitely just getting a lot more attention across the league.

The O’s have quietly solidified an already-filthy pen, so let’s start from the frontend and work our way toward the superstud closing the door. Actually, let’s start with some guys not currently slotted in the major league pen per Roster Resource:

MINORS

Jason Garcia [RHP]: Houston Rule 5 pick (via Boston) who was immediately flipped to Baltimore; spent 3 months on the DL; throws 95 MPH regularly; bottom line numbers are somewhat deceiving; greatly improved skills after injury (8/11 K:BB ratio pre-injury in 13.7 IP, 14/6 in 16 IP post-injury); could wear out path between Norfolk & Baltimore if BB are in check

T.J. McFarland and C.J. Riefenhauser[LHPs]: two soft-tossing lefties who look like potential LOOGYs at best; McFarland has elite GB rates (61% career), but it comes at the cost of Ks (15% career); Rief was secondary piece in Trumbo trade; hasn’t done much in 20 MLB IP (6.30 ERA, more K than BB), but still time to develop (26 years old)

Oliver Drake [RHP]: had some small sample size luck w/that ERA last year (2.87), but that splitter kept hitters off balance and missed plenty of bats; MLB walk rate (13%) was anomalous compared to minor league track record (7%  in 589 IP); not a young up-and-comer (age-29 season)

MAJORS

Vance Worley [RHP]: swingman who will likely get a handful of starts; has been successful in limited RP role (2.90 ERA, 2.9 K:BB in 40.3 IP, 28.7 of which were in ’15); not a strikeout guy; capable of multi-IP outings

Dylan Bundy [RHP]: as my other fellow BSL Colleague Zach Spedden outlined, he could be capped as low 75 IP; has the stuff to be elite in short stints; didn’t look like himself in AFL when I saw him; silver lining is the pen can be a great way to ramp up a stud; different situations obviously, but Johan Santana went that route; still only 23; it’s dark right now, but not yet in “bust” territory; just can’t trade him for Scott Feldman

Brian Matusz [LHP]: no worse than a killer LOOGY; second-best K% & fifth-best OPS v. LHB among RP (min. 100 BF); even if you add in SPs he is 3rd & 13th; survived way too many BB v. RHB (16%); held his own v. RHB in two of last three seasons

Mychal Givens [RHP]: could be the sneak-tip gem that really solidifies the pen as great; fantastic 30 IP debut last year w/skills to back it (33% K, 5% BB); had 13% BB before ’15; crushed righties and lefties; well above average whiff rate on fastball; 13 of 22 appearances were multi-IP; this level of success is new, but the skills have evolved, too

Brad Brach [RHP]: strikeout surge (28%) supported by tremendous whiff rate; sits 20th in Swinging Strike rate among RP since 2014 (min. 120 IP); he’s one of three O’s in top-20; hasn’t shown platoon issues; had .543 OPS v. RHB in ’14 & .534 v. LHB in ’15… if he can align them with returned K%, watch out; still walks too many, but his stuff is just nasty and he’s tough to square up

Darren O’Day [RHP]: on the whole RPs are fungible, but outliers exist and O’Day definitely is one; has dominated LHB in 3 of 4 seasons to remove ROOGY tag; since 2012 among RP (min. 200 IP) – 4th in ERA, 4th in WHIP, 8th in BABIP, 11th in OPS, 15th in K%, 16th in BB%, and 19th in SwStr%; in other words: elite; wouldn’t have been shocking to see another team sign him to close; did I mention elite?

Zach Britton [LHP]: oh, speaking of elite; if you watched him in ’14 then the ’15 strikeout surge wasn’t surprising; with Ks in tow, now legitimately challenging for top closer in the game; has two of three highest GB rates on record; command jump trimmed walks and left nothing for batters to exploit; 7th-best SwStr% last year, on par w/Kenley Jansen; the rare lefty closer because he smashes righties

The Orioles bullpen already had a big showing in 2015 with the top reliever WAR at 6.4, 1.1 wins more than second-best (HOU and NYY). They had a great skillset: 3rd-best SwStr% (12%), 3rd-best groundball rate (49%), 6th-best K% (24%), 7th-best HR/9 (0.8), and 9th-best K-BB% (15%) which yielded the 5th-best ERA (3.21) and 11th-best WHIP (1.26). ERA can be volatile given the small samples of relievers, but their 6th-best FIP (3.48) backs up the performance.

In order to get where they want in 2016, the bullpen will have to be as good or better. The pieces are definitely there to achieve that.

Paul Sporer
Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer is currently a contributor to FanGraphs / RotoGraphs. He has worked for/still works for Rotowire, Baseball Prospectus, Rotogrinders, The Fantasy Fix, Draft Day, and PaintTheBlack.com – his own website centered around pitching. Additionally, he’s written for several Baseball Prospectus Annuals, contributed to Rotowire’s 2015 magazine, and spoken at a couple of BaseballHQ First Pitch Arizona events. His popular starting pitching guide is available at paulsporer.com.

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