Burnes Signs With Arizona; Should The Orioles Sign Flaherty?

On Saturday Corbin Burnes signed a 6 year $210M deal with Arizona.

Him leaving Baltimore wasn’t unexpected.  It was said that he wanted to be out West, and Arizona is his home.

The reports I saw suggested that Burnes directly reached out to the Diamondbacks.

If he wanted to be in Arizona, it’s hard to beat home, taxes, etc.

On our Message Board, I recently said I would have made him turn down 5 years $212M.

That would have been my offer. If he turned it down, I would have lived with that.

While I said I would have offered 5 years, I didn’t feel great about it.

The idea would have been you are offering 5, for the hope of him remaining healthy and very effective over 25 and 26.
If you were going to give any Free Agent Starting Pitcher that type of deal, I think he’s the guy given his health to date. Of course that doesn’t mean that ‘luck’ will continue.
Also, I think he looked more like a very good #2, or a low end #1 vs. a true ACE in his prime, but I’m picking nits. He looked better in September when he used the whole arsenal.

There have been some reports that the Orioles were engaged at some level, and did make some type of offer.
I’ve seen some Orioles fans suggest the O’s get credit for trying.
If the Orioles had made the best offer, and he turned that down to go home, maybe they get some credit there
Ultimately I don’t think you get credit for offers. You get credit for signings, and potentially you get credit down the road for walking away from contracts which would inhibit you later.

Regardless, it didn’t happen, and life goes on.

So what now?

The now is that the Orioles need another reliable starter with front of the rotation upside.

The O’s ending up with Roki Sasaki would be the dream, but the odds of that happening feel close to zero.

I’d suggest the Orioles turn their attention to Jack Flaherty.

Sportrac is projecting Flaherty gets a 3 year $63M deal.
Maybe more realistically, MLBTR projected a 5 year $115M deal.

Many O’s fans don’t like the idea of Flaherty, because he wasn’t particularly good when the Birds acquired him for the last two months of ’23.

That’s understandable.

He broke into the Majors as a Rookie at age 21 in 2017.
His 2018 and 2019 seasons were very encouraging, with him looking like a legitimate star in ’19.

His ’20 was whatever, like everyone else in that abbreviated season.
His ’21 was solid.
His ’22 was hampered by injuries.

In ’23, he was off in his 20 starts with St. Louis, and generally a mess for the O’s over his 7 starts and 9 outings.

He signed with Detroit last off-season, and was good there over 18 starts before being traded to the Dodgers.
He wasn’t overwhelming with LA, but he was good enough to help the Dodgers back to the post-season.
In the post-season, he made 5 starts. 1 great start, 2 horrible starts, 1 above average, 1 below average.

For the year, his final 2024 regular season numbers:

13-7, 3.17 era, 162 ip, 135 hits, 24 homers, 38 bb’s, 194 k’s.

His Whiff %, K %, BB % were all excellent, as was his Breaking Ball value.

He just turned 29 in October.

So, in-general, I like him.

If you can get him on a 3 year deal, sign me up.
If it takes 5 years, I’m less enthusiastic, but maybe.

Still easier to sign him, and get a quality arm, vs. trading internal assets for someone like Dylan Cease.

Cease does have higher upside, but I’m not sure there is enough difference between him and Flaherty that it’s worth giving up the assets it would take to obtain him.

One of our Message Board posters has made a fairly convincing argument to me for preferring to sign Max Scherzer for 1 year vs. 3 years for Flaherty.
I could get on-board with that.
I definitely think the idea of 1 year for Scherzer is preferable if you need to go to 5 years for Flaherty.
At 3 years for Flaherty, I’ll take him (again he’s 29) vs. Scherzer (who’s 40).

Quick Hits On Other Topics

• I believe the O’s are a 90 win team as is. But I also think the roster as is has significant possible variance. I could see them winning 81, and I could see them winning 100. Most of that potential variance for me comes down to rotation health. Another reliable starter with upside would limit that potential variance.  Flaherty would make me much more confident in them winning 90 if I had to make a wager.
• Ownership. I don’t have any problems with David Rubenstein. Many Orioles fans are starting to get irritated with him, wondering if he’s going to be as frugal as his predecessor. I think it’s still way too early to judge, but my anticipation is that Orioles spending is going to be middle of the pack to the upper 1/3 by the 2027 season.   I would like to see Ownership’s focus on making Gunnar Henderson a stay here forever offer.
• There are 4 years with Henderson left under Orioles control. I’m looking at it as 2 years. If you haven’t locked him up within the next 2 years, I’ll want to trade him.  I’d like to see him here forever, but you can’t make him sign. If he doesn’t want to, and you can’t get something done within 2 years, trade him for the massive haul he would command.
• I wouldn’t be shocked if the O’s announce a deal with Rutschman in Spring Training.
• I think some fans want to see the O’s go ‘all in.’  I don’t feel like that. I want to see an extended decade plus year run of regular contention.  I don’t need to put all chips in for 1 year.  I just want to keep reloading, even if the names change.  This team as comprised is good for an extended run.  Some supplementing needs to happen.
• If Flaherty signed elsewhere, and you can’t land Sasaki; I’d be more willing to go pay the player capital for someone like Cease. Again, not really trying to go all in on any one year, but also want to minimize any weakness.  One more capable / quality starter, and I think you can feel pretty good about everything.
• Adding another reliable high leverage reliever probably should also be a priority.  I’m optimistic that Felix Bautista will be very good again in ’25, but asking him to be ’23 good is probably not realistic.
• Fingers crossed, there is some hope that Kyle Bradish is back at the end of ’25. I’ll keep those fingers crossed, but you can’t be building any plan that expects him back.