Buying or Selling These 10 Teams in the NCAA Tournament Relative to Expectations

Part of what makes the NCAA Tournament such a fun event, is that there are 68 teams that enter the field with the chance to create something special. This NCAA Tournament isn’t going to be remembered fondly in the end by everyone, so the question is which team can create those memories that last a lifetime? Expectations going into the Tournament will have a lot to do with it, as 5 teams will be listed that will exceed those expectations, while 5 others who will fail to live up to them will be listed as well. In College Basketball this season, there are a handful of teams from both the Power 6 and Mid Major level that will be getting the chance to play in the Tournament for the first time in a while, and just their seasons alone has electrified the fan bases. Selection Sunday is less than three weeks away, and it is time to start getting to know these teams better.

Teams that will Over Exceed Expectations in the Tournament

Arkansas – Eric Mussleman coached teams have consistently started off the season a little slow, before turning it on at just the right time and looking dangerous heading into March. That is again the case this season, as Arkansas started 10-5 overall and 0-3 in SEC Conference play. Despite lofty expectations after making it to the Elite 8 last year, the slow start for Arkansas wasn’t necessarily surprising. This is a team that lost an NBA Lottery pick in Mosses Moody along with two other key contributors in Justin Smith and Jalen Tate. Mussleman has been known for always bringing in some of the top transfers on the market and taking some time to figure out roles usually comes with that.

The Razorbacks have been led by key returnees JD Notae and Jaylin Williams who not only have big game experience, but also know what it is like to play for Mussleman. Last year, Arkansas started off 2-4 in SEC play and it was Williams who was right in the middle of the turnaround that got Arkansas to the Elite 8. One of the most unique players in the country, Arkansas is at their best when Williams is the one making the key decision. The big man is very skilled, an excellent passer and can even hit a three point shot here and there. In addition, Williams has now taken 40 charges on the defensive end, and in today’s game there are very few things that creates more momentum for your team. Notae has taken on the role as go to scorer, which included a team high 28 points in the win over #1 ranked Auburn earlier this month.

Following Saturday’s win over Tennessee, Arkansas has now won 11 out of their last 12 games. Eric Mussleman is establishing himself as one of the premier coaches in the sport and some of the best players are starting to take notice.  Looking ahead, Akansas already has two top prospects signed as a part of next year’s class in Nick Smith and Jordan Walsh. In addition, Class of 2022 5 star prospect Anthony Black was in attendance for the big game against Tennessee.

Connecticut– The UConn Basketball Program, has not been able to get back to their rightfully high standards since their National Championship in 2014. The reality is it didn’t work out with Kevin Ollie as Head Coach, and the situation is officially over and done with considering he was awarded his 11 million dollars.

Tuesday Night against Villanova, the College Basketball world was reintroduced to just how special this Connecticut program can be when everything is firing on all cylinders. Playing Villanova definitely helped, but the XL Center crowd showed up in a big way for the biggest game in the UConn program since 2014. Coach Danny Hurley has continued to improve and build this program since arriving from Rhode Island in 2018. The Huskies were able to return everyone, minus James Bouknight from a team, that went 15-8 leading to a #7 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Players like Adama Sanogo, Tyrese Martin and RJ Cole have all stepped up in a big way becoming very reliable in the biggest moments.

Earlier in the season, this was a team dealing with one injury after the other. The world did get a little bit of a sneak peak into just how good these Huskies are after they became the first team to hand Auburn a loss this season on November 24th. Immediately following that one, Tyrese Martin injured his wrist and Adama Sanogo had an ab injury. It did take some time, but with these guys back and 100% healthy UConn is showing they can compete with anyone. The Huskies have other experienced players such as Tyler Polley and Isiah Whaley, who have been in the program since the Kevin Ollie days and both have made numerous big plays on the season showing just how valuable that experience is. That is part of what makes this UConn team so appealing, is that they have the perfect mix of good veterans and young players. Guys like Andre Jackson and Jordan Hawkins do have a role on this team, and are going to get even better with the more time they spend in the program.

Although it was clearly the best thing for the league, there were many Big East coaches that didn’t want UConn returning to the league. This was due to the fact that they knew when UConn finds the right coach to get this program rolling, they will be a scary team to deal with. Sure enough, that is exactly what has happened in only their 2nd year in the conference.

Texas Tech– The Red Raiders deserve a spot on this list, simply because they have been overachieving since Chris Beard went on the plane to Austin. The College Basketball world got a front row seat on Saturday to see what Mark Adams has done since he took over in Lubbock by completing the season sweep over Texas. On Saturday in Austin, Red Raiders fans showed up in a big way, and essentially turned a Texas home game into a neutral court game. This Tech program is so important in the state of Texas right now, that Tech fans were able to get a hold of the Texas ticket code online and took over the arena.

It was evident that Adams was the one that had already built the culture established within the Texas Tech program, while Chris Beard is still trying to build one with the Longhorns. Texas Tech was also missing Kevin McCullar who is one of their more valuable players providing key experience and great defense as well as being the primary offensive facilitator. Mark Adams’ team has not been fully healthy since the start of the season, dealing with nagging injuries to guys like McCullar and Terrance Shannon Jr. However, those injuries are never used as an excuse, considering Texas Tech continues to win and is approaching the #2 seed line. Odds are Chris Beard was not expecting to play de facto road games at home, against his former squad.

The fact that Texas Tech fans were able to take over Austin, is reminiscent of just how much the coaching change has re-energized this program. Texas Tech’s elite defense will give them a chance against anyone in March. Defense combined with an offense that finds a way to make enough plays, with plenty of depth and experience is usually a recipe for teams to go far in the tournament. Mark Adams has his team destined for a deep Tournament run in his first year in Lubbock, which makes the sky the limit for the future of Texas Tech.

Wake Forest – Second year Head Coach continues to do a phenomenal job with a Wake Forest program that hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2010. That should change this year, as Wake has one of the premier duos College Basketball has seen this season in Alondes Williams and Jake LaRavia. The new one time transfer rule that immediately allows transfers to play for their new team has changed the sport. Coaches especially at the Power 6 level have no excuse not to bring in talent, and Forbes took that to heart.

Williams was a role player, who averaged a quiet 6.7 Points Per Game last year on a decent Oklahoma team that won a game in the NCAA Tournament before getting blown out by Gonzaga. The change of scenery, along with Forbes decision to keep the ball in Williams hands at all times has paid off for the Deacons. Williams is averaging 17 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists per game, on his way to becoming the ACC player of the year. LaRavia has also been a great find for Forbes out of the transfer portal, developing from a player in the Missouri Valley to a legitimate NBA Prospect. The skilled 6’8 Junior, has NBA teams intrigued with his size and outside shooting ability (42% from three on the season)

There will be times Wake looks like an NBA team, thanks to the dynamic ability of Williams with the ball in his hands, and how Coach Forbes has found the proper role for his main contributors. The good chemistry and vibes around this Wake team, makes it apparent that they should win a game or two in the Tournament. Keep an eye out.

Wyoming – A story in the Athletic this week by CJ Moore went into detail on just how good of an eye Wyoming Head Coach Jeff Linder has for talent. He recruited Damian Lillard to Weber State, Chandler Hutchinson and Justinian Jessup to Boise State followed by current College players Graham Ike and Marcus Williams to Wyoming. 4 of those players are currently in the NBA.  Linder has very quickly become one of the more impressive young coaches on the scene. When the 2020 season ended in the NCAA Tournament being called off due to COVID-19, Linder had his program at Northern Colorado ranked in the Top 80 of KenPom and in position to be a popular upset pick in March.

While the Mountain West might not be the most known league, this year’s version of the Conference is as good as it’s been since the league sent 5 teams to the NCAA Tournament in 2013. One thing is for certain and it is that this Wyoming team is going to get challenged a lot by playing in a league with a handful of tournament teams and some tough home court advantages. The league is currently in position to get Wyoming along with Colorado State, Boise State and San Diego State into the big dance.

Linder has as good as any one/ two punch in the sport with Hunter Maldonado and Graham Ike leading the way for the Pokes. Maldonado is a 5th year Senior, who has been through it all in the Mountain West and has dramatically improved as a player. Maldonado has gone from averaging 5.3 points in 21 minutes per game as a Freshman to 19.5 points in 38 minutes per game as a senior. In addition, there are very few players in the country more skilled in the post than Graham Ike. Anytime Wyoming needs a basket, they feel comfortable letting Ike go to work. It has been a special season for Linder’s group, considering they lost  last year’s leading scorer  and Mountain West Freshman of the year Marcus Williams to Texas A & M and he is a very good player at the SEC level. Instead of using it as an excuse, Linder has his Cowboys in position for a primed NCAA Tournament run.

Teams that will Not Exceed Expectations in the Tournament

Duke – While many will be surprised to see Duke on this list, especially with this being Coach K’s last season as the head man in Durham, it isn’t as shocking as one might think. There is no denying that the overall talent level of this Duke team is tremendously high, considering they have 4 players likely to get drafted in the first round of the NBA Draft. When all of Duke’s talent is playing at their best, they have a legitimate argument as the best team in College Basketball. The problem is that being such a young team, combined with playing in one of the worst ACC’s in recent memory has made those moments pretty rare.

It was evident just how good a team Duke could be, when they ran North Carolina off their home floor and dominated an NCAA Tournament worthy Notre Dame from start to finish in South Bend. With that being said, Duke has also had some moments this season that had everyone scratching their heads. This is a Duke team that has marquee victories over Kentucky and Gonzaga. It is safe to say that there is not a team that possesses a better pair of wins, but Duke has also dropped games to Ohio State, Florida State, Miami and Virginia. While those losses aren’t necessarily to bad teams, in each one of them Duke had a lead late and let it get away. It isn’t a huge deal when something like this happens once or twice, but any more than that and it starts to become a concern.

This isn’t the first time in recent memory that Duke had a very talented and young team that would sometimes struggle in close games. Duke’s 2018 recruiting class consisting of current NBA player Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish is considered one of the best classes of all time while all 3 players ended up going in the top 10 of the NBA Draft. While many thought that the Duke team was unbeatable, they peaked early in the season and lost a handful of close games down the stretch which should have signaled that it was going to happen in the tournament again. While losing in the Elite 8 is a great season for most programs, those are the expectations at Duke and the season is remembered as a failure by many. There are too many similarities between this team and that 2019 team, even in Coach K’s last hoorah.

Iowa State – TJ Otzelberger could not have gotten off to a better start in his first year as Head Coach of Iowa State. Just one season after winning a total of two games, Iowa State went a perfect 12-0 in Non-Conference to start off the season. As the schedule started to get more difficult for the Cyclones in Big 12 play, they started to dip with a conference record of 5-9. Iowa State does have enough quality wins to put them safely in the NCAA Tournament for now. However, it might be a difficult ask for the committee to put a team that is 6-0 during conference play into the NCAA Tournament. Iowa State struggling a little bit during Big 12 Conference play is not the most surprising thing, considering how good the league is. The best part about the NCAA Tournament is that every team you play is going to be good, so not being able to win games against the best teams in your conference is usually something that translates.

It should be remembered, that no matter what happens to Iowa State in the NCAA Tournament this season should be considered a massive win. Steve Prohem had some moments as Head Coach after taking over for Fred Hoiberg, but there weren’t a lot of times where’d wow you or accomplish something that wasn’t expected. Otzelberger walked directly into a locker room that won 2 games last year, used the Transfer Portal to his advantage and built a very good team.

The Cyclones have won their last 2 games at TCU and against Oklahoma, which was the first time all season they had won 2 conference games in a row. When you are not able to win consecutive games while gaining some momentum throughout the season, then it’s difficult to expect a team to do that in the tournament. The Cyclones best moments during Big 12 play, came in wins against Texas Tech and Texas at Hilton Coliseum. In order for me to have confidence in a team in March, proving that you are able to win on the road is a good start. As great of a season as it has been for Coach Otz and company it will likely end early in the NCAA Tournament.

North Carolina – While many see the name, and are surprised that UNC is even fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives when you look at their resume it is not surprising at all. This Tar Heel team just picked up their first Quadrant 1 win of the season on Saturday at Virginia Tech. It is understandable that the ACC is down, but UNC went 0-7 in their first 7 toughest games of the season. Luckily since their November win over Michigan has now shifted to a Q1 Game, North Carolina does seem to have a resume good enough to make the NCAA Tournament but not much should be expected once they get there.

It is the first year in Chapel Hill without the legendary Roy Williams in charge and with that takes some time for the new coach to establish himself and really get things rolling his way. While it is still very early in his tenure, a lot of North Carolina fans have not been thrilled with Hubert Davis in his first season. A lot of that feeling is likely to do with the fact that North Carolina didn’t conduct a legitimate coaching search after Roy retired and many thought they could get a little bigger name considering the brand and history of North Carolina.

On the court, North Carolina is a team with many talented players but it hasn’t necessarily translated. The Tar Heels have really struggled on the defensive end, ranking 237th in the country in opponents points per game and 189th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Former 5 star recruit Caleb Love, was expected to burst onto the scene as a Sophomore  but it hasn’t happened. Love has improved in some aspects, from a tough Freshman season that had some moments. Love is averaging 15.3 points and about 4 assists per game which doesn’t look terrible. However, Love’s Freshman season was so bad that it would have been very hard to beat and he remains a liability on the defensive end. North Carolina had folded as soon as they got on the floor against some of the better teams in the ACC including losing to Duke, Wake Forest and Miami, all in blowout fashion. If this North Carolina team gets run off the floor every time they face a good team in the regular season, then a postseason run isn’t likely.  They aren’t mentally tough enough or good enough on the defensive end for a deep tournament run.

Ohio State – Ever since Chris Holtmann took over as Head Coach of Ohio State in 2017, the Buckeyes have always overachieved relative to their talent. Holtmann has established himself as one of the best and most underrated coaches in the country, getting Ohio State to each of the last 3 NCAA Tournaments and well on the way to reaching another one this season. The coaching job that Holtmann has done in 2022 is impressive, due to the fact that Ohio State lost two key members of last years team that was able to get a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, in Duane Washington and CJ Walker.

Part of the reason why Holtmann doesn’t always get recognized for his early success at Ohio State, is last years heartbreaking loss to #15 seeded Oral Roberts. Believe it or not, that loss doesn’t have anything to do with why Ohio State won’t exceed expectations in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. Ohio State does have two really good players in EJ Liddell and Malaki Brnaham. However besides those top two guys, they have had trouble finding anyone else who can score the ball consistently. Justice Sueing, who was another key member of last year’s team returned to school this season and was expecting to be that key piece. Unfortunately, two games into the season, Sueing suffered an abdominal injury and has not played since.

As good of a coach as Chris Holtmann is, there is nothing in particular that this Buckeyes team does well. That gives whoever they are playing, the chance to attempt to exploit all weaknesses while focusing on the scoring of Liddell and Branham. Ohio State suffered a disappointing loss on Saturday against Iowa at home, which resulted in Iowa’s first Quadrant 1 victory of the season. Additionally, Ohio State was lucky to avoid a sweep against Indiana on Monday Night, needing a 4 point comeback in the last minute just to send the game into Overtime. Considering that Ohio State is around the 5 seed line at the moment, any 12 seed should be confident that they can compete with and beat Ohio State if Liddell and Branham are limited.

Michigan State – One of the more surprising statistics in College Basketball that doesn’t get spoken about enough is the fact that the Big Ten Conference has not won a National Championship since the year 2000. From a more recent sample size, last season the Big Ten sent 9 different teams to the NCAA Tournament which was more than any other league, and only got 1 team to the second weekend. It isn’t exactly a major coincidence that there are two teams from the Big Ten that could disappoint in March.

Although Tom Izzo is still one of the premier coaches in the country, this just isn’t an Izzo coached Michigan State team. The Spartans have picked up enough wins to have them safely in the NCAA Tournament around the 6 seed line, but have yet to really wow or impress a lot, let alone on a consistent basis. Point Guard play has been something plaguing this Michigan State team since the start of the season, and usually that is not a good problem to have when you are trying to win in March. Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker, who was expected to be the lead guard for this Spartans team, hasn’t had the easiest time adjusting to the level of Big Ten play. However when Michigan State did look dead in their last game against Illinois, Walker did rise to the occasion with a season high 24 points in the second half. If Sparty can get any consistency out of the position, it can change their ceiling. But for now in a similar way to Ohio State they don’t do any one thing great and are due for an early March exit.

Tom Izzo has always been known for being an elite postseason coach, with the Phrase “January, February, Izzo, April.” However, even though Michigan State has made 2 Final 4’s in the last 7 NCAA Tournaments, they have also failed to make it out of the first weekend in 4 of the last 5 tournaments. Michigan State is definitely a team, worth keeping an eye on especially with a tough draw.