Last Friday night, the Orioles improved to 13-13 overall, with a 10-3 win over the Red Sox. In that game, the O’s put up 6 homers, and received a promising start from Brandon Young.
The O’s had Trevor Rogers, and Kyle Bradish scheduled to start Saturday and Sunday, and seemed well positioned to get a series win.
Instead they lost both weekend games, including suffering a 17-1 beating Saturday night.
This was the O’s third series loss in their last last four series, and they are now two games under .500 before beginning their next series vs. Houston tomorrow night.
That was a frustrating weekend, especially since a similar scenario occurred two weeks prior vs. Arizona (a series loss after a win Friday night, and Rogers and Bradish going in games 2 and 3 of the series).
It’s the type of loss that if you are a fan, you find yourself questioning the upside and ceiling of the current roster.
Right now, the Orioles don’t look good enough to believe they can be a legitimate contender (Division title aspirations and beyond).
What needs to change in May for us to believe more in the potential of this roster?
Rogers and Bradish
The upside of the rotation is tied to Rogers and Bradish, and right now there are significant questions with both.
Rogers has a 4.75 era after 6 starts, and his 4 seam fastball which overwhelmed hitters in ’25, is a touch-below average in ’26.
Bradish has walked at-least 3 batters in 5 of his 6 outings, and has a 4.20 era.
(Walk rates are at 75 year highs, so maybe that is impacting Bradish as much as anything, but he still needs to adjust and not give up so many free passes.)
What do the O’s have here with this duo?
Rogers had a quality rookie season in ’21 followed-up by years of injuries and under-performance through ’24.
Last year, everything came together for him when he rejoined the O’s, and he finished Top 10 in the AL Cy Young Balloting, with an extremely impressive showing over 18 starts.
Bradish was a monster in ’23, finishing Top 4 in the AL Cy Young Balloting.
That was followed by Tommy John surgery and a combined 14 Major League starts over ’24 and ’25.
If these two stay available, and pitch like mid-rotation starters, the O’s can hang around in the Wild Card races – but it would be hard to really take the O’s seriously if that’s all they are.
If we’re going to feel better about the O’s chances of doing something of significance in ’26; then we need to see these two raise their games in May.
Power Is Ticking Up; What About The On-Base %?
This was always going to be a power-dependent offense. We’ve seen a few bats start to warm up, and give the line up increasing depth over the last week.
Currently the O’s are a respectable 8th overall in Slugging %.
Despite that mark, they’re just 15th overall in Runs Scored, because their just 16th overall in On-Base %.
The power has to stay at this level – or further improve – and the O’s have to get on-base at a higher clip for the offense to improve.
Dylan Beavers, Sam Basallo, Colton Cowser, and Coby Mayo have all raised their average in recent days; but Beavers is still leading that pack with just a .243 average (Mayo the lowest of those four at .188).
Basallo has a .325 on-base %. Beavers has crept over .300 at .308%. Cowser and Mayo remain under .300.
If that quartet can all get on-base at a .320% pace, that would impact the offense as a whole.
Basallo has particularly impressed this last week, not just for his prodigious power, but using more of the field.
If you want a way the O’s can raise their expectations going forward, Basallo becoming more-and-more comfortable is one.
Gunnar Henderson had been in an extended slump before the Boston series, but seemingly came alive with his 8th, and 9th homers.
He’s got a .280 on-base compared to a .343 career mark.
Pete Alonso is still batting under .200, and his .301 on-base is significantly below his .339 career mark.
On the flip-side, Taylor Ward is sporting a .424 on-base %, which won’t be sustainable (.331 career).
In the immediate you hope Ward continues to hit, and gets on-base at a high clip.
You hope that this is the career year for Adley Rutschman offensively, or that he at-least gets on-base all of ’26 at the levels he showed in ’22 and ’23, and that Tyler O’Neill gives the lineup something when he plays.
You also hope Jeremiah Jackson, and Leody Taveras don’t crater too.
Mostly you hope that Basallo, Cowser, Beavers, Mayo build off these past few games, and regularly give the lineup additional length.
And that Henderson and Alonso quickly fully find themselves and produce.
The Other Starters – Baz, Bassitt, Kremer, Young, Povich
Dean Kremer is now out for a few weeks with a quad strain.
As mentioned at the top Young was effective in his outing, the second quality ML appearance for him in his many outings here in ’26.
The pitch mix has changed a bit from last year, and he was pretty impressive.
Cade Povich has also given the O’s two useful outings so far this year.
I can’t say I’m overly confident in either of them being an average 5th starter over the course of the entire year; but their outings have been encouraging.
Those Young and Povich outings helping to alleviate some of the sting of losing Zach Eflin for the season after 3.2 innings.
More importantly, it was great that after losing Eflin, the O’s were able to turn to Kremer – someone that has given the O’s regular competitive starts and innings the last few years.
Eflin having a strong year, was one chance for the O’s to squeeze some upside out of the current roster.
Chris Bassitt pitching like he did last year for the AL Champion Jays was another opportunity.
Unfortunately Bassitt’s 5 starts so far this year have been alarming, and there is real concern that the 37 year old is toast.
If Bassitt doesn’t turn things around quickly, he might not last May in the O’s rotation.
A quality May from him would help increase the belief that the O’s have the rotation depth they’ll need to get through a 162 game season.
The most important member of this group is Shane Baz.
He’s got a 5.08 era through 5 starts, with 34 hits allowed and just 23 k’s in 28.1 innings of work.
The velocity is strong, but he needs more swing and miss stuff.
If he isn’t going to rack-up punchouts, he needs to illicit more groundballs.
He’s a 3rd starter.
There are going to be strong games, and poor games from him.
What you really need is consistently solid outings which give the O’s a chance to win.
Obviously hoping for more flashes of more, than instances where he has nothing.
Lot riding on him.
Especially if Rogers and Bradish aren’t going to pitch like front-end starters, than it’s incumbent that Baz also doesn’t backslide.
Can he turn things up a notch starting with tomorrow vs. Houston?
The Defense
The defense is not particularly good right now, and it’s limiting.
The defense has a chance to improve during the year, if Enrique Bradfield eventually takes over CF, and Jordan Westburg returns in June and is able to take over 3rd.
If those two things happen, the team defense as a whole goes up a notch or two.
Neither of those possibilities are in-play for May.
What is available, is that Orioles Manager Craig Albernaz can replace Mayo at 3rd in close and late situations with Blaze Alexander.
That’s part of the reason Alexander is on the roster.
Dylan Beavers was just around average defensively last year.
He’s been below average so far in LF, RF, and CF.
Still better than O’Neill at this stage I think.
Definitely want to avoid games where you have Ward and O’Neill together on the OF corners.
Taveras and Jeremiah Jackson have been solid in CF, and 2nd.
Taveras has previously been a quality CF with Texas.
Cowser was an excellent LF in ’24. He’s an average CF.
If nothing else, he can help on the corners defensively in close and late.
Henderson and Rutschman need to set-the-tone everyday defensively.
If their strong at SS, and C; that goes a long way to solidifying everyone else.
Don’t Fade, Compete Daily, Win Series, Get To June At .500 & Above
At 13-15, the O’s are 5 games back of the Yankees in the AL East.
So far in series played, the O’s are 4-5.
Friday’s win, and the beating they took Saturday have been aberrations so far.
Most of their games haven’t been out-of-hand either way.
A lot of close games.
A string of close games can be nerve-wracking for fans, but if you don’t play your way out of game early; you give yourself regular opportunities to win.
It feels to me that this team has a bit more fight than last year’s team did.
If you want to credit Albernaz for that, go ahead.
If the O’s are .500 and above on June 1st, things won’t feel much different than they do right now.
We’d likely be talking about the O’s continuing to tread water, and lamenting some missed opportunities.
On the other-hand, if they’re .500 or better on June 1st, I think we will will feel like they’re in a good position to further improve as Summer arrives.
The key is not getting buried right now, especially as the games vs. the AL East now ramp up.
13-15 on April 27th is not good enough.
If they don’t tread water this next month, and instead start drowning; it’s going to start to get ugly in Birdland.
The fanbase rightfully expects a contender.
Here at the end of April, this team looks middling, but there are still reasons for optimism.
If that optimism is gone at the end of May, Orioles General Manager Mike Elias is going to hear from an unhappy fanbase.
Schedule Here To The End Of May
4/28 – 4/30 vs. Houston (3)
5/1 – 5/4 @ NYY (4)
5/5 – 5/7 @ Miami (3)
5/8 – 5/10 A’s (3)
5/11 – 5/13 NYY (3)
5/15 – 5/17 @ Washington (3)
5/18 – 5/20 @ Tampa Bay (3)
5/22 – 5/24 Detroit (3)
5/25 – 5/27 Tampa Bay (3)
5/28 – 5/31 Toronto (4)
That’s a total of 32 games.
In these forthcoming 32 games, the O’s have 17 games vs. their AL East foes.
To be .500 or better on June 1st, the O’s have to go 17-15 in these next 32 games.
Can the O’s raise their ceiling in May?
Start stacking series wins.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.