How did these teams get here?

How do these teams compare?

Let’s take a look.

The Yankees won the AL East, finishing 94-68.
The Dodgers won the NL West, finishing 98-64.

New York was 3rd overall in runs scored with 815.
LA was 2nd overall in runs scored with 842.

The Yankees were 3rd in on-base %, and 4th in slugging %.
The Dodgers were 2nd in on-base %, and 1st in slugging %.

New York was 7th in era, while LA was 13th.

New York was 44-37 at home, and 50-31 on the road.
LA was 52-29 at home, and 46-35 on the road.

The Yankees were 58-40 before the All-Star game, and 36-28 after.
The Dodgers were 56-41 before the All-Star game, and 42-23 after.

New York was 8-8 in Extra Inning games, 19-18 in 1 run games.
LA was 9-7 in Extra Inning games, 21-17 in 1 run games.

The Bronx Bombers were 23-23 against the National League.
The Boys in Blue were 30-16 against the American League.

The Yankees and Dodgers had a 3 game series in New York in June, with LA taking 2 of 3.

While not yet announced, Shohei Ohtani will be the NL MVP, and Aaron Judge will be the AL MVP.

This will be the 12th all-time World Series between the Yankees and Dodgers, the 5th time since the Dodgers moved to LA for the 1958 season.

The Yankees have won 27 World Championships, this is New York’s first World Series appearance since 2009.
The Dodgers have won 7 World Championships, this is LA’s fourth World Series appearance since 2017.

Since 2010, NY has won the AL East 5 times (2011, 2012, 2019, 2022, and 2024). They’ve been a Wild Card 6 times (2010, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2021).
Since 2010, LA has won the NL West 11 times (2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2024). They’ve been a Wild Card 1 time (2021).

On Opening Day, the Yankees had the 2nd highest payroll in baseball at $303M, while the Dodgers had the 3rd highest payroll at $249.8M.

In the Playoffs, the Yankees had a bye in the Wild Card round. They then beat KC 3 games to 1 in the Division Series, and Cleveland 4 games to 1 in the American League Championship Series.
In the Playoffs, the Dodgers had a bye in the Wild Card round. They then beat San Diego 3 games to 2 in the Division Series, and the NY Mets 4 games to 2 in the National League Championship Series.

ESPN’s Analytics are giving the Dodgers a 52.2% chance of winning the World Series.

Injuries?

Former Oriole Evan Phillips was not included on the Dodgers World Series roster.
They were able to get back Alex Vesia, Brusdar Graterol, and Miguel Rojas.

Tyler Glasnow was lost for the season in August with elbow soreness.
Clayton Kershaw was also lost in August with a bone spur.
Dustin May was out the entire year.

Nestor Cortes is on the Yankees World Series roster, despite not pitching since September 18th.
It looks like DJ LeMahieu was left off the WS roster.

Predictions?

ESPN’s David Schoenfield says analysis shows that it would take a Best of 75 to determine the best team in a matchup of two essentially equal teams.

Instead we will see a Best of 7, and pretend something can really be gleaned from it.

I like the Dodgers lineup and bullpen better than the Yankees.

I like the Yankees starters a bit better.

You’ve got plenty of star power in this series, not just with Ohtani and Judge; but also Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman, Gerrit Cole, Gincarlo Stanton, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, etc.

I’ll take the Dodgers in 6, with Betts being the World Series MVP.

The post Previewing The World Series – New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

After finishing the first half with a record of 58-38, they spent the second half as a .500 team, going 33-33 which included a 13-12 record in September. Of course, their September record does include a 5-1 stretch to end the year but still, it’s fair to say that fans might struggle with optimism about how they finished the year.  

So, let’s put how the Orioles finished this year into context. We’ll begin by looking at how recent teams to make the World Series finished the season before comparing them to the Orioles and then we’ll see how Baltimore’s finish to the season stacks up against everyone else who made this year’s postseason.  

2023 

Texas Rangers (winner): 90-72 overall, 38-33 second half, 15-14 in September/October
Arizona Diamondbacks: 84-78 overall, 32-39 second half, 15-13 in September/October 

You don’t need to go back very far to find a pair of teams who made the World Series without amazing finishes to the regular season.  

Both of last year’s teams had pedestrian performances across September and October, with the Rangers quite notably losing three of four against the Seattle Mariners at the end of the season to hand the division to the Houston Astros.  

Meanwhile, the D-Backs’ 15-13 record to end the year helped them survive a second half where they were seven games below .500. Their 32-39 second-half record was the fourth-worst mark in the National League, but it certainly didn’t seem to matter once they began the postseason. 

2022 

Houston Astros (winner): 106-56 overall, 47-24 second half, 22-9 in September/October
Philadelphia Phillies: 87-75 overall, 38-32 second half, 14-17 in September/October 

While 2023’s World Series featured a pair of teams who didn’t exactly finish the season on a heater, that wasn’t the case for the 2022 Astros. After an 11-10 April, Houston won at least 60 percent of their games in every other month.  

As for the Phillies, they performed better after Joe Girardi’s departure following a 22-29 start, but their improvement under Rob Thomson didn’t include a strong finish to the year. They spent September going on two separate five-game losing streaks and went 2-5 against an Atlanta Braves team they would later eliminate in the Division Series.  

2021  

Atlanta Braves (winner): 88-73 overall, 44-28 second half, 18-11 in September/October
Houston Astros: 95-67 overall, 40-31 second half, 17-13 in September/October 

The Braves were certainly an example of a team who heated up as the year progressed. After losing on June 16, Atlanta was 30-35 and eight games out of first. Following that loss, Atlanta ended the year by going 58-38, a .604 winning percentage that helped them win the NL East by 6.5 games. Their 18-11 record in September/October included a 12-2 heater to finish the season. 

Meanwhile, the 2021 Astros weren’t quite as impressive as their 2022 version, with worse records across the full season, the second half and in September/October. However, it’s not like a 40-31 second half and 17-13 record after August 31 is limping to the finish line, just a demonstration that they did better the following season.  

(2020 didn’t have a 162-game season as you might recall, so we’re skipping it.) 

2019 

Washington Nationals (winner): 93-69 overall, 46-27 second half, 17-11 in September/October
Houston Astros: 107-55 overall, 50-22 second half, 19-6 in September/October 

The Nationals quite infamously began their 2019 season 19-31, sitting 12 games below .500 after they lost on May 23. However, they flipped a switch after that loss and their record after from that point forward was 74-38. As you can guess, that 74-38 record included a 46-27 second half and a 17-11 record in September/October. 

In comparison, the 2019 Astros finished the season better than the Nationals and better than their 2022 and 2021 counterparts. They barely missed a second-half winning percentage of .700 (it was .694) and their 19-6 record in September/October was the best in the American League.  

2018 

Boston Red Sox (winner): 108-54 overall, 40-24 second half, 15-11 in September/October
Los Angeles Dodgers: 92-71 overall, 39-28 second half, 19-9 in September/October 

While the Red Sox definitely had an excellent second half, they still cooled down a bit relative to their first-half pace. They had a .694 winning percentage in the first half and their second-half winning percentage took a mild dip down to .625. Their September was also pedestrian by the standards they had set during the rest of the season, posting their only month with a winning percentage below .600. However, their underperforming in the second half and September didn’t exactly make a dent as they won the World Series in five games. 

Over in Los Angeles, the Dodgers began 2018 in a lukewarm manner, sitting at 30-31 after a loss on June 6 but ended the year going 62-40 with pretty strong records in the second half and in September/October. The Dodgers also had to play an NL West tiebreaker that year, beating the Colorado Rockies in game 163 to give them a bonus boost of momentum entering that year’s postseason. 

So, how do the Orioles stack up? 

Compared to the last ten teams to make a full-season World Series, the Orioles have the second-worst record in the second half, only sitting above last year’s D-Backs. And if they were to win the World Series, they would do so with a second-half record worse than the prior five full-season winners. 

Meanwhile, their record in September/October is slightly better, with their winning percentage ranking higher than the 2023 Rangers and 2022 Phillies. 

In addition to comparing this year’s team to previous pennant winners, it also seems useful to see how their finish to the season ranks relative to everyone else in this year’s postseason. (I’m including the Braves, D-Backs and Mets due to when this will be published even though one of them won’t make it.) 

The Orioles don’t look particularly impressive here either, but if you’re a big believer in momentum then they might’ve gotten pretty lucky to avoid the Detroit Tigers in the Wild Card round.  

The Tigers own the AL’s best record for both the second half and September while the Kansas City Royals had the tenth-best second-half record among possible playoff teams and will be the only team to enter the playoffs with a losing September. 

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Who should the O’s be targeting in trades?

What are the questions facing O’s GM Mike Elias?

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Most Uncertainty

That would be this season. And it’s a season unlike one we’ve seen in a while. At least from this vantage point, meaning my couch in March, this season doesn’t project to have any huge mammoth 100-win teams. Sure, one could emerge, that’s always possible, but to look at the rosters, just about every team has more weaknesses than we’ve seen from potential division and league leaders. And that’s not a bad thing! Parity isn’t always desirable but after four 100-win teams last year (plus a 99-win Yankees team) and three the season before, the fact FanGraphs doesn’t project any team to win more than 93 games this season gives every game that much more significance. And combined with the new expanded playoffs, there’s all of a sudden some extra space for some teams that haven’t made noise recently to surprise. 

Best off-season move

It’s hard to say signing a player through their age-39 season is the best signing of the off-season, but I guess that’s what I’m saying. *sigh* In the end, while any specific deal is about the money first and foremost, Aaron Judge re-signing with the Yankees really isn’t about that. It was about the Yankees keeping their best player (and by far!) In New York through the rest of his potentially Hall of Fame career. Sure, these deals often end badly, but if Judge is DHing when 2031 rolls around, that’ll be fine. And, let’s be honest, it’s not like the Yankees were doing anything better with that $40 million each year. New York is supposed to win the World Series every year, so from that standpoint, they really couldn’t afford not to keep Judge.

Worst off-season move

There’s a few that don’t seem likely to age well, and Xander Bogaerts to San Diego isn’t necessarily one of those, but it’s just a bizarre move nonetheless. First of all, there are a number of indicators that Bogaerts six-win 2022 season wasn’t a sustainable one, and in fact many of Bogaerts batted ball and defensive metrics are going the wrong way and have been doing so for a few years. But what makes this so strange is that the Padres already have two other starting-quality shortstops on their roster! And one of those, Fernando Tatis, Jr, is going to make more than Bogaerts! In order to pay Bogaerts $281 million through is age-40 season, the Padres are moving shortstop Tatis to right field, shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to second base, and second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first base. It’s a strange use of resources. On one hand, you have to admire the ‘get every good player’ approach, but also, was this the best or even close to the best use of $281 million? I have a feeling this one is going to look bad pretty quickly.

Most “What-are-they-doing?” signing

The Chicago White Sox are planning to play baseball this year, presumably. I know this because they signed outfielder Andrew Benintendi to a five year, $75 million contract. The deal itself is fine (great if you’re Benintendi!), but it’s a lot of money to spend on a player who doesn’t really offer a lot. He’s a slightly above average hitter, but he’s not fast, he’s got a weak arm, and he doesn’t really hit the ball hard. Yes, the sum of his parts add up to a slightly above average player right now, but will they in five years? Will they in two years? The upside here is pretty low and the downside is pretty high, at least for a team that doesn’t spend much. If the White Sox had $75 million burning a hole in their pocket, I can think of a few better ways to spend it. 

Most exciting rookie

This is an Orioles site, so Gunnar Henderson is who you should expect here. And I’m very excited to see Henderson, but I’m not quite as excited to see Henderson as I am to see Corbin Carroll of the Diamondbacks. With 32 games of MLB experience under his belt, Arizona signed Carroll to an eight year deal with two options on top of that. Why? Carroll can do it all. He’s fast, he can play center field, he can hit for average, and for power. That’s the whole package and I’m excited to see how his first full season goes. 

Biggest Fall in the Standings

This one is kinda easy. The Dodgers won 111 games last season and there’s no way this team is going to approach that number again. In fact, I don’t expect them to win 95 in 2023, but even if they do, that’ll be a drop of 16 games! If they only win 87 like FanGraphs projects, that’s a drop off of 24 games. Which is a lot. Don’t get me wrong, the Dodgers are a good team and still a threat in the National League, but show me someone who looks at their roster and sees a 100 win team and I’ll show you someone who’s had too many Dodger dogs. 

Biggest Rise in the Standings

There’s a few candidates here, but the one that stands out most to me is the Rangers. Admittedly that’s partly because they won just 68 games last season, so there’s some room to go up. But also because if you look at their roster, it’s not that bad. It’s not good! But it’s not bad either. Adding Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi should give them some above average innings, and the return of prospect Josh Jung from injury combines with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to give them some pretty good hitters at the front of their lineup. Yes, the back of the lineup isn’t awe-inspiring but we’re not projecting them to win the division, just to win a chunk more games than 68. 

Most Under-the-Radar team

It’s hard to say the Orioles on an Orioles site, that seems too on the nose, so I’ll say the Red Sox. Boston lost Xander Bogaerts and replaced him with… their center fielder? They’re going to use a career backup catcher as their starter and a career minor league catcher as their backup. Everyone in their projected starting rotation is A), coming off of a major injury or, B) is Corey Kluber. Their biggest off-season move was not trading Rafael Devers. And yet, I kinda like this team. Bizarrely there is upside. Devers was fantastic last season until an injury ruined his numbers in July. Triston Casas’ combination of power and patience from first base is exactly what this lineup needs, and in fact they’ll get more of that from WBC star Masataka Yoshida in left field. Nobody is picking the Red Sox to do anything in ’23, but maybe they should be. Maybe.

Biggest Bust Potential

The Blue Jays might win the World Series. That’s entirely on the table as far as possibilities go. But, there is a universe, and it’s not necessarily even that remote of a universe, where they miss the playoffs again. The Jays spent their off-season remaking their outfield, removing good hitters (Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel), and replacing them with good fielders (Kevin Kiermaier, Daulton Varsho). Thing about that is neither Varsho or Kiermaier are good hitters. But the biggest bust potential, to me, lies in their rotation. Kevin Gausman is my Cy Young pick, but Yosei Kikuchi and Jose Berrios were both awful last season and both are being depended on to hold down a spot again. If Alek Manoah takes a step back (entirely possible based on his stats last season) or Chris Bassitt’s particular brand of old-pitcher trickery doesn’t work, the team could be in a world of trouble.

MVP

It’s hard to pick against Shohei Ohtani, but I’m going to do that and say the AL MVP will be Mike Trout. Last year Trout had a six-win season in just 119 games. That projects to be a 7.5 win season over 150 games, which would have put Trout third baseball in WAR behind only Aaron Judge and Ohtani. I don’t see Judge pulling a 2022 again, so it’s down to Mike vs. Shohei in the AL, and right now I’ll take Mike.

In the NL, I’m going to guess Mookie Betts. Mookie’s had a fantastic few seasons in Los Angeles but he hasn’t really gone off since his 10.5 win season in 2018 with Boston. It says here he’ll do that again. 

World Series

Give me the Braves over the Mariners in six games, and definitely when October ends, feel free to throw what will then be an extremely silly prediction in my face. Thanks for reading.

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This week’s release is Topps Series 1, the first set of 2023 cards and the flagship release before the various spin-offs from the leading and licensed baseball card producer start to hit shelves. Series 1 will have 330 base cards including stars, rookies (some of which should be of particular interest to Orioles fans), team cards, and other inserts. There are 17 different parallels of various rarity for the base set. The main insert in this year’s release is a throwback to the 1988 design for the 35anniversary. This year’s inserts include ‘Future Stars’, ‘League Leaders’, ‘2022 Greatest Hits’, ‘All Aces’, ‘One-Two Punch’, ‘Welcome to the Club’, ‘AKA’, and ‘Heavy Lumber’. Each of these have parallels and autographed versions. There are also sketch cards which are original art on a card back and ‘Home Run Challenge’ cards which allow you to predict when the player on the card hits a homerun. If you’re correct you get a special version of the card in return.

Its an exciting set for Orioles fans with two of the biggest rookies in the entire sport showing up for Baltimore as well as just a deeper roster of base cards worth owning. Lets break those down.

Adley Rutschman – Base RC, 1988 Topps Baseball/Auto/Relic/Silver Pack, 2022 Greatest Hits/Auto, Baseball Stars Auto, Clear, Major League Material/Auto, Home Run Challenge, Patchwork of the Past/Auto, Stars of MLB/Auto, Team Logo/Auto, Topps Reverence Patch Auto

Maybe the crown jewel of the entire set, baseball fans have been waiting for a chance to collect Adley rookie cards since it was announced that he wouldn’t be included in Topps Update Series which was released in late October of 2022. He made his major league debut too late for Series 2 but there was a question of whether or not they would hold him for 2023 since they already had headliners in Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr. and in fact they did. While it is a little odd for the guy who played played in 113 games and finished runner up in the rookie of the year voting to not get his rookie card until the following year, they’re making up for it by featuring him in pretty much every insert imaginable. Hopefully he didn’t develop carpel tunnel syndrome signing all these cards since the Orioles are going to need him if they’re going to make a run at the playoffs in 2023.

Gunnar Henderson – Base RC, 1988 Topps Baseball Auto, 2022 Greatest Hits/Auto, Baseball Stars Auto, Clear

I thought for sure with Adley being in Series 1 that Topps would keep Gunnar as a headliner for Series 2 so I was pleasantly surprised to hear he would also be getting his rookie card in this set. As someone who enjoys participating in box breaks for Orioles cards my wallet wasn’t a fan of the decision but it shows how confident they are that they’ll be able to fill out Series 2 with other worthwhile Orioles. I would assume Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall will get their rookie cards in the next set as well as guys like Felix Bautista, Ramon Urias, Austin Hays, Cole Irvin, Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, etc. Henderson himself should be involved in more of the inserts and have more autograph cards available in Series 2 but it is exciting to see the next homegrown stars of the Orioles making their rookie card debuts in the same set. It makes sense since they were both selected by the Orioles in the 2019 draft.

Kyle Stowers – Base RC, 1988 Topps Baseball Silver Pack/Auto, Clear

Speaking of that 2019 draft, might as well make it a trifecta as Stowers gets his rookie card in the same set as Rutschman and Henderson giving the Orioles top three picks each a chance to shine in Series 1. The outfielder won’t get near the attention nationally as Adley and Gunnar (for good reason) but that doesn’t mean he isn’t another great card for Orioles fans to collect. He was a top 10 prospect in the system until he graduated late in the 2022 season due to days on the active roster. He has the potential to be a mainstay in an improving Orioles lineup for the next handful of years. He didn’t get the playing time fans might’ve expected once he hit the majors which makes him a bit of a forgotten man but his first homerun was incredibly memorable and there should be plenty of those left to come.

Cedric Mullins – Base, Major League Material, Welcome to the Club/Auto

Now a veteran for the Orioles and these card sets, Mullins gets a spotlight in the new ‘Welcome to the Club’ insert set thanks to his 30 homerun, 30 stolen base season in 2021. He didn’t fair as well in 2022 but between his stellar defense in center field, 16 homeruns, and 34 stolen bases was still a 3.5 win player. The now 28 year old will try to bounce back in 2023 as he tries to stave off the wave of outfield prospects rising through the Orioles’ minor leagues.

Ryan Mountcastle – Base, 1988 Topps Baseball Auto/Relic, Clear, Major League Material, Topps Reverence Patch Auto

Mountcastle was a big rookie for collectors during the 2021 baseball card release schedule and you can see that even now with the fact that he is included in some of the more rare inserts and always seems to have an autograph or two in most sets since he graduated rookie status. 2023 could be the last time he is given that much respect by Topps unless he can rebound from a 2022 season that saw him underperform expectations and his expected stats.

Terrin Vavra – 1988 Topps Baseball Auto/Silver Pack/Auto, Baseball Stars Auto

I wasn’t too surprised that Vavra wasn’t also given his base rookie card in this set given the big three above but being included as a rookie in insert sets is a surefire sign that he will get it in Series 2. His playing time for the 2023 Orioles may be in question but his place in the 2023 Topps flagship baseball card set can no longer said to be.

DL Hall – 1988 Topps Baseball Silver Pack/Auto

Much like Vavra above, this all but confirms that Hall will get his base rookie card in Topps Series 2. Unlike Vavra he has a ton of upside that makes me think his silver pack autograph is a good chase card since he could start the 2023 season back in the minor leagues but his upside is that of a top of the rotation starter. Now, pitchers aren’t typically as valuable as hitters on the card market but there is a small percent chance that Hall ends up as one of the few that buck that trend and not everyone can say that.

Kyle Bradish – Base

Bradish had his rookie card come out in the 2022 Topps Update Series set just a few months ago and gets another flagship card right behind it. That momentum coincides with the second half he had last season. After returning from the injured list on July 29th he had a 3.28 ERA over 71.1 innings with 65 strikeouts including a two hitter over 8.2 innings against the world series winning Astros on September 22nd. He will look to carry that over into 2023 and carve out a permanent spot in the Orioles rotation.

Dean Kremer – Base

The last man standing from the Manny Machado trade with the Dodgers at the trade deadline in 2018, Kremer had a really strong sophomore season after being a big disappointment in 2021. He lowered his ERA from 7.55 over 53.2 major league innings to 3.23 over 125.1 innings and has a chance to be the opening day starter for the Orioles in 2023. The ceiling for him isn’t as high as it is for Bradish or Hall but the floor may be after making real improvements over the past year or so.

Anthony Santander – Base

Over the past few years I kept thinking the Orioles should and would trade Santander. He seemed like a league average bat that doesn’t provide much defensive value in the outfield. Power but no plate discipline. Fast forward to the second half of 2022 and I was glad they never did. The power is still there but Santander seemed to really take to the Orioles new hitting coaches and increased his walk rate to slightly above average. As long as he can transition to a first base/DH type I think his bat could be really beneficial to the next couple years of Orioles lineups.

Jorge Mateo – Base

Do you like gold glove caliber defense at shortstop? Blazing speed that results in triples (7), stolen bases (35), and exciting baserunning in general then Mateo is the guy for you. He can’t hit the ball consistently, doesn’t walk enough, and strikes out too much but other than that he’s great. The tools standout but he is running out of time to put it all together with the flurry of infield prospects on the doorstep in Baltimore.

Tyler Wells – Base

Wells is an interesting case. After being selected in the rule 5 draft prior to the 2021 season coming off of Tommy John Surgery he was used out of the bullpen and performed so well that he was eventually used as the closer, saving four games and working to a 4.11 ERA. He was stretched out into a starter last spring and performed well (4.25 ERA over 103.2 innings) but missed some time due to a shoulder issue. Its unclear what role he will be used in during the 2023, maybe a little bit of both, but either way he should have a clear spot on the roster.

Jordan Lyles – Base

The least valuable card for Orioles out of this set has to be the guy who no longer plays for the team after a one season stop in Baltimore. Lyles performed admirably for a team with low expectations coming into the season and served as a veteran leader for the pitching staff. Now with the Kansas City Royals, at least his inclusion here isn’t as perplexing as Pat Valaika in 2022 Series 2…

Also, if you’re into the classic Orioles there are a spattering of Cal Ripken, Eddie Murray, and Jim Palmer in the set as well. These guys plus Brooks Robinson, who makes a sole appearance as a dual autograph with Cal in this set, can typically be found in any set for the Orioles. Ripken leads the pack, they know what they’re doing over there at Topps.

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The Astros are winners of 106 regular season games, losers of zero post-season games during these 2022 playoffs, and are making their fourth World Series appearance in the last six seasons. During that time, they’ve won 100 or more games four times, and during their last five 162 game seasons (so not including 2020) they’ve averaged a hair’s breadth over 101 regular season wins. This, friends, is a dynasty. We don’t talk about the Astros that way, probably because they’ve won just one World Series in that time, and it was a tainted one at that, but in our times and especially with the context of the new playoff format, this is what a modern dynasty looks like. 

The Phillies aren’t that. This season is Philadelphia’s first trip to the playoffs since 2011. Do you remember where you were in 2011? That’s okay. Nobody does. 2011 was a different universe. That Phillies team was, as it turned out, the last playoff gasp of the 2008 World Series champs. That was the Jimmy Rollins, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard Phillies. Not unlike the Astros, that Phillies team made the playoffs five consecutive seasons, making two World Series appearances and winning one of them. But then they got old and that was that. 

We’ll get back to the current Phillies team, but I would be remiss not to note that this is the regular course of great teams. A rise, a plateau of greatness that can include World Series appearances and championships, and then a fall off, followed by an indeterminate number of down seasons. That’s certainly the path the Phillies followed. It is decidedly not the path the Astros have followed. 

Houston has managed to off-set the aging process by jettisoning a large part of their core over the past few seasons. What makes them great is they’ve lost George Springer, Carlos Correa, Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, and Gerrit Cole. Most teams would fold with that kind of talent drain, but Houston replaced that talent with other talent. Some of that has come from spending, like bringing in Justin Verlander who was added in a trade and later re-signed as a free agent. Some of that has come from player development, like rookie shortstop Jeremy Pena, All Star right fielder Kyle Tucker, and starters Framber Valedez and Cristian Javier. Some of that has come from smart contracts, like extending second baseman Jose Altuve and third baseman Alex Bregman. Some of that has come from smart trades, like fleecing the Dodgers (!) for Yordan Alvarez, possibly the best hitter in baseball at the moment. 

So unlike most teams, after six straight playoff appearances, the Astros aren’t on the downswing. Indeed, they’re not going anywhere. 

But back to the Phillies, who, despite how I’ve organized this piece, are maybe the more interesting team. There is no question Philadelphia is the underdog in this World Series, but then the city of Philadelphia is no stranger to that concept. This Phillies team was not particularly impressive during the regular season, featuring a poor start to the year that lead to the firing of manager Joe Girardi in early June after a 22-27 start. In the end, they righted the ship, but even so, mustered just 87 wins while squeezing into the playoffs via the new Wild Card format. 

Despite that, this Phillies team is built for this particular playoff format. Why? Because they’re better than the team they were during the regular season. Start with Bryce Harper. Harper missed 63 games this year, and of the 99 he played, he was maybe healthy for half. But he’s healthy now. He’s posted an OPS over 1.000 in every round of the playoffs, hit five homers in 11 post-season games, and just generally hit like a postseason boss. A healthy Harper alone makes this playoff Phillies team better than the regular season version. 

But Harper isn’t the only reason. Arguably Philadelphia’s biggest move at the trading deadline was trading minor league catcher Logan O’Hoppe to the Angels for center fielder Brandon Marsh. Marsh has a big time prospect pedigree, but has struggled at the plate so far in his time in the majors. He can go get it in center field though, something the Phillies lacked previously. Even more to the point, Marsh actually hit after coming over to the Phillies. Whether he’ll hit again next season is another question (there are still quite a few red flags) but Marsh gave the Phils some all star caliber production in center. 

Beyond that, the Phillies are a go-all-in type of team, the kind you’d expect from GM Dave Dombrowski. 

This past off-season Dombrowski added two slugging corner outfielders with defensive issues in Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos on big money deals. Schwarber lead the NL in homers while Castellanos struggled. The Phils needed the jolt on offense, but it was always a faustian bargain of sorts, as the Phillies were one of the worst fielding teams in baseball and the worst to make the post-season. In contrast, the Astros were one of the best. The Phillies need to out-slug their defensive deficiencies, something they’ve been able to do thus far. 

If you give the Phils a statistical jolt from a healthy Bryce Harper, they’re maybe roughly in line with the Astros in the run scoring department. Pitching-wise, the two teams are probably closer than you might think as well. Especially when you consider that the Phillies added David Robertson at the deadline, a move that allows manager Rob Thomson to use Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez in less defined roles. 

But I keep coming back to the defensive difference between these two squads. The Phillies make more mistakes in the field, yes, but it’s not just that. It’s that the Astros get to batted balls that Phillies fielders just can’t. Or couldn’t during the regular season. 

That’s the big difference between the two squads. The Astros are just a bit better everywhere except in the field where they’re a lot better. That doesn’t mean the Astros will win. This is a seven game series. The Phillies could sweep. But I do think there’s a noticeable difference in quality between the two teams, one that should result in the Astros winning the World Series. Again. 

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