Adley Rutschman, traded to Boston at the deadline, is the most valuable defensive catcher on any playoff team, at +12 runs saved, and has won 41 of his 62 ABS challenges this season. In Milwaukee, DL Hall has finally stayed healthy, and his 1.91 ERA and 26.6% strikeout rate make him a real lefty weapon. Tampa Bay has two more: Cedric Mullins starts in center for his glove (+7.3 defensive runs) even though he hit just .205, and Tyler Wells has a 1.50 ERA in 18 relief innings.

The bracket

Twelve teams made the field, six per league. The top two division winners in each league get a bye to the best-of-five Division Series. The other eight play best-of-three Wild Card Series, with every game at the higher seed.

Yes, the 81-81 Astros host a series. Division winners are seeded ahead of wild cards, and a historically weak AL West gave Houston home field despite finishing 11½ games behind the fourth-seeded Yankees.

Wild Card Series TV schedule

All four series open Tuesday, Sept. 29th, and Game 2s are Wednesday. Any Game 3s are Thursday on NBC, Peacock or NBCSN (full matchup guide).

AL Wild Card Series

No. 5 Red Sox at No. 4 Yankees

Pick: Yankees in 3. This is the seventh postseason meeting between the rivals and a rematch of last year’s Wild Card Series, which New York won 2-1 behind Cam Schlittler’s Game 3 gem. The Yankees took the season series 7-6.

This matchup is about pitching, not slugging. These were the AL’s two best run-prevention teams, at 3.73 runs allowed per game for New York and 3.77 for Boston, while both offenses finished right around league average. The Yankees led the majors with a 3.24 team ERA. Schlittler (1.95 ERA, 239 strikeouts) is the AL Cy Young favorite, and Max Fried, Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón follow him. Schlittler and Fried both throw a four-seamer, sinker and cutter, which lets them change looks from one trip through the order to the next. David Bednar has settled the ninth, with Brent Headrick and Paul Blackburn setting up.

Aaron Judge is the wild card within the Wild Card. A rib stress fracture cost him June through August, and he strained his calf after just seven games back. Reports on his availability range from hopeful to doubtful. New York went 41-25 with him and 52-43 without, scoring nearly a run more per game when he played. Ben Rice (41 HR) has carried the lineup in his absence.

Boston’s season has been a roller coaster. The Red Sox started 10-17 and fired Alex Cora. Under Chad Tracy they went 77-58, including a franchise record-tying 15-game winning streak in July, and Tracy just signed a three-year deal. Then the bats went cold: Boston scored the fewest runs in the majors in September and went 12-12.

The matchup to watch is Boston’s lefties. The Red Sox have the most left-handed staff in nearly 40 years, with hitters facing a southpaw in nearly 60% of plate appearances. Ranger Suárez and rookie Payton Tolle (3.03 ERA, 2.52 since August) start, while Aroldis Chapman and deadline pickup Erik Miller (1.23 ERA, 40% strikeout rate since the trade) close games. Garrett Crochet, who hasn’t pitched since April 25, could also be a bullpen option. New York hits lefties well overall, but the matchups create lineup problems. Austin Wells has a .441 OPS against lefties this year and Ryan McMahon .509, which could push Anthony Volpe to third base, a position he first played last week. Sonny Gray, the one righty ace, gives Boston a different look in whichever game he starts.

No. 6 White Sox at No. 3 Astros

Pick: White Sox in 3 (upset). This is a rematch of the 2005 World Series, which Chicago swept, and the 2021 ALDS, which Houston won in four. The Astros took the season series 5-2.

Houston posted its worst full-season winning percentage since 2014 but still made its 10th postseason in 12 years, largely because of Yordan Alvarez. He led MLB in average, OBP and slugging (.316/.432/.601) with 42 homers, while the league as a whole hit .244/.319/.400. He is hitting .400 with four homers over his last 11 games and owns a .944 career postseason OPS. The rest of the roster is thin. Houston’s 4.45 team ERA ranked 24th, and after Hunter Brown the rotation is Peter Lambert and Hayden Wesneski. Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu and Tatsuya Imai, who has a 2.12 ERA since moving to relief, will be asked to cover a lot of innings.

The White Sox lost a record 121 games two years ago and are now the field’s feel-good story. They finished fifth in runs on the strength of three 30-homer bats: Miguel Vargas (33 HR, 100-plus walks), Munetaka Murakami (35) and Colson Montgomery (31). The worry is that Murakami (.154) and Montgomery (.158) have two of the lowest averages in the majors since Aug. 1. The rotation of Sean Burke, Davis Martin, Anthony Kay and Erick Fedde is the weakest in the field. The bullpen is not: Grant Taylor and Hagen Smith anchor it, and Jordan Hicks has struck out 39% of hitters since changing his arm slot in June. If Chicago pitches around Alvarez and its sluggers wake up, this upset is very live.

NL Wild Card Series

No. 5 Cubs at No. 4 Padres

Pick: Padres in 3. This is the closest series of the round and a rematch of last year’s Wild Card Series, which the Cubs won 2-1 at Wrigley. Chicago also went 5-1 against San Diego this season, including a 23-3 rout. That history is the best argument against this pick. Game 1 is Michael King vs. Matthew Boyd, and San Diego is a slight favorite.

The Padres are the hottest team in the field. They closed the season 17-3 and are 41-18 since July 24, the best record in baseball over that span. After ranking last in the majors in runs, average and OPS at the All-Star break, they led MLB in average after it, as Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill and Ty France all hit like stars. First-year manager Craig Stammen, a longtime reliever himself, gets to deploy the deepest bullpen in the field. Mason Miller ranks first in the majors in expected ERA, and his slider gets a 56% whiff rate, the best of any qualifying pitch. Adrián Morejon and rookie Bradgley Rodriguez (2.38 ERA) also rank in the top 10 by expected ERA, and Yuki Matsui and a returning Jason Adam add depth.

Chicago has the best lineup and the best defense in baseball. The Cubs led MLB in runs and OPS, hit 220 homers and posted a 114 wRC+. Pete Crow-Armstrong put together one of the great seasons of the century: 45 homers, 41 steals, a 157 wRC+ and 10.6 WAR. He also ranked first in defensive value and a close second in offensive value, a combination no player has ever managed. His nine leadoff homers rank third in MLB, so watch the first pitch. As a team, the Cubs saved +68 runs in the field, the most of the Statcast era. Alex Bregman (28 HR, 5.6 WAR) is back from facial fractures, and Seiya Suzuki (26 HR) is in a contract year.

The pitching is the problem. The Cubs posted a 4.12 ERA and a 4.60 FIP, allowed 1.44 homers per nine and threw the softest fastballs in the majors. Shota Imanaga gave up 1.81 homers per nine. They’re also road-weary: rain from a nor’easter sent them from Chicago to Boston to St. Petersburg to San Diego in five days.

No. 6 Phillies at No. 3 Braves

Pick: Braves in 3. Atlanta went 9-4 against Philadelphia this season. But the Phillies have won all three previous postseason meetings, including as a wild card over division-champion Atlanta in both 2022 and 2023. The Braves haven’t won a playoff series since their 2021 title.

Chris Sale is the reason to like Atlanta. At 37 he posted a 2.16 ERA, a 2.28 FIP, a 30.9% strikeout rate and 5.8 WAR, and he has owned Philadelphia’s lefty sluggers: Bryce Harper is 2-for-21 against him and Kyle Schwarber 2-for-25. Tyler Mahle (1.28 ERA in eight starts after the deadline) is a strong No. 2, although he was hit for five runs in his final start. The bullpen is deep: Raisel Iglesias closes, Robert Suarez has a 0.82 ERA in 33 innings, and Didier Fuentes, the youngest pitcher on any big-league roster, has struck out 31.6% of hitters.

The lineup’s names are scarier than its numbers. Matt Olson (41 HR), Drake Baldwin and Michael Harris II all produced, but Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies had down years. The team posted a league-average offense by wRC+ despite topping 200 homers. Atlanta does have the NL’s highest rate of 75-plus mph swings, and Ronald Acuña Jr. hit seven homers with a 1.000-plus OPS in September.

Philadelphia’s stars are real, but the team is limping in. Zack Wheeler pitched Game 162 and won’t be on full rest at any point in this series. Jesús Luzardo (shoulder) has thrown only one relief inning since Sept. 7. Cristopher Sánchez had a 5.12 ERA in September and won’t be on full rest until Wednesday, so rookie Andrew Painter may start. The bullpen’s 5.79 ERA since Sept. 1 is the worst in MLB. On offense, only Harper and Schwarber (MLB-best 45 HR) finished above average, but they rank second and third in the majors in run value against fastballs. The Phillies are 8-4 in postseason games when Schwarber homers and 13-13 when he doesn’t.

The teams waiting on the bye

Tampa Bay Rays (AL No. 1, 98-64)

In their first year back at Tropicana Field, the Rays went 55-26 at home, the best home record in baseball, and they have home field until the World Series. They do almost nothing poorly. They struck out less than any team, hit an MLB-best .283 with runners in scoring position and led the AL in steals. Junior Caminero (42 HR, 142 wRC+, 5.3 WAR) has the fastest average bat speed in the majors, 79.6 mph, and hit the most no-doubt homers. Chandler Simpson is his mirror image: he stole 46 bases and hit .306 without a single homer or even a single barrel. Drew Rasmussen (2.67 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 5.0 WAR) leads the rotation, and closer Bryan Baker (1.44 ERA) heads a bullpen that also includes Kevin Kelly, Cam Booser and ex-Oriole Tyler Wells. The concerns: Caminero, Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Díaz hit more than half the team’s homers, Shane McClanahan’s status is uncertain, and the Rays are one of the six weakest lineups against left-handed pitching. That last one is a problem if Boston’s lefty-heavy staff advances.

Cleveland Guardians (AL No. 2, 85-77)

Cleveland won its third straight division title despite José Ramírez having the worst season of his career, and it enters as the hottest team in the AL by Bill James’ “team temperature” formula. As usual, the Guardians are built on pitching. Rookie Parker Messick (2.56 ERA, 193 strikeouts in 186⅓ innings) is a Cy Young and Rookie of the Year candidate, Gavin Williams misses bats, and closer Cade Smith saved 41 games with a 1.95 ERA. Keep an eye on Daniel Espino, who is averaging 98.8 mph out of the bullpen after years of shoulder injuries. The offense is the issue: it scored the fewest runs of any playoff team, had no 20-homer hitter and ranks among the six weakest against lefties. Cleveland went 27-22 in one-run games and will need more of those, with Steven Kwan (MLB’s leader in OBP since July) setting the table.

Milwaukee Brewers (NL No. 1, 103-59)

This is the best season in franchise history and the best record in baseball. Jacob Misiorowski was the best pitcher in the sport: 1.80 ERA, 2.17 FIP, 37.9% strikeout rate and 6.6 WAR in 174⅔ innings, with two of every three fastballs at 100 mph or harder. Logan Henderson (2.47 ERA) set a rookie record with an 0.84 WHIP among pitchers with 15-plus starts. Trevor Megill (1.85 FIP), Abner Uribe (1.97 ERA), Aaron Ashby and ex-Oriole DL Hall make up one of the two best bullpens in the field. The Brewers finished second in runs despite hitting only 154 homers, the fewest in MLB, by leading the majors in average and OBP. Brice Turang (5.9 WAR), Jackson Chourio (130 wRC+) and Jake Bauers (143 wRC+) lead that group. Two questions: who starts Games 3 and 4 after Kyle Harrison faded, and whether a low-power lineup can do more than the four runs it scored in four NLCS games against the Dodgers last year.

Los Angeles Dodgers (NL No. 2, 100-62)

The two-time defending champions are the betting favorite and are chasing the first NL three-peat. Their rotation is the deepest in the field. Yoshinobu Yamamoto posted a 2.53 ERA, deadline prize Tarik Skubal had a 2.36 FIP in 10 Dodgers starts, Blake Snell had a 1.90 ERA after returning, and Tyler Glasnow struck out 34% of hitters. Skubal’s changeup produced 27 strikeouts over his last two postseasons with Detroit, the most by any single pitch in that span. The worries are health and the back of the bullpen. The Dodgers have MLB’s oldest roster at 31.1 years. Shohei Ohtani (30 HR, 139 wRC+) is playing on a sore knee and won’t pitch again this year after posting a 1.79 ERA in 85⅔ innings. Edwin Díaz has an 8.68 ERA in 18⅔ innings, and hard-throwing reliever Edgardo Henriquez (back) may be unavailable, which leaves Tanner Scott (2.10 FIP) and Alex Vesia to close games. Kyle Tucker was a league-average hitter overall but got hot in September.

The field by the numbers

Money didn’t buy seeding this year: the two best records in the AL and NL belong to teams in the bottom half of the payroll table. Here’s how the 12 teams stack up on spending, hitting, pitching, defense and against each other.

Spending

Source: USA Today, MLB Labor Relations Department figures · 40-man Opening Day payroll in present-day value · 2026

The Dodgers opened the season spending about 4.6 times what the Guardians did. The Orioles’ $170 million payroll was bigger than those of four playoff teams, including both No. 1 seeds (full payroll list).

Offense

Source: Baseball-Reference team batting · 2026 regular season through Sept. 27

Only the Cubs and Dodgers beat the league average in both on-base percentage and slugging by a wide margin. Milwaukee got on base more than anyone but hit for league-average power, and Cleveland’s .380 slugging is the lowest in the field (team batting).

Pitching

Source: Baseball-Reference team pitching (ERA, FIP) · 2026 regular season

FIP strips out defense and luck on balls in play, so a big gap between the two numbers is worth noticing. Atlanta and Chicago both allowed roughly half a run fewer per nine than their FIPs suggest, and the Cubs’ 4.60 FIP is the worst in the field. Philadelphia is the only playoff staff whose FIP (3.79) is better than its ERA (4.04), which fits a bullpen that leaked runs all September (team pitching).

Defense

Source: Baseball-Reference team fielding (defensive efficiency) · 2026 regular season

Defensive efficiency is a blunt tool. It credits a defense for every ball in play that becomes an out, whether that took a diving stop or just a pitcher inducing a lazy fly ball, so it mixes fielding with the quality of contact a staff allows. Tampa Bay shows the gap: the Rays top this chart, but through 158 games they were tied for 21st in errors, at -4 in DRA and at -10 outs above average. Their number says more about the contact their pitchers allowed and where their fielders were positioned than about their gloves. The Cubs are the case where the two agree, since their third-place mark here comes with a defense that set a Statcast-era record for runs saved. The Phillies’ .678 is the lowest of any playoff team (team fielding).

Head-to-head

Three of the four host teams won the season series. The exception is San Diego, which went 1-5 against Chicago, including a 23-3 loss, and still gets to host because it won more games overall.

Why October is a coin flip

Everything above measures six months of baseball. The next month gets decided in bursts of three, five and seven games, and short series are bad at sorting good teams from very good ones.

Source: Calculated from single-game win probability, treating each game as independent with the same odds

The math is humbling. Give a team a 60% chance to win every game, which is better than any club in this field managed over 162 (the Brewers won 63.6% against the whole league, not just playoff teams), and it wins a best-of-three only about 65% of the time, a best-of-five about 68% and a best-of-seven about 71%. A statistical study cited by CBS Sports found that baseball would need a best-of-75 series for the better team to advance even 80% of the time. CBS’s broader point is that the real source of October chaos is letting 12 teams in, not the bye or the layoff.

The hot-and-cold narratives don’t hold up much better. NBC Sports’ Eric Samulski checked every playoff team from 2016 to 2025 and found almost no correlation between September winning percentage and how far a team went. The 2021 Cardinals went 22-7 in September and lost the Wild Card game. The 2025 Tigers went 7-17 and won their Wild Card series. The 2023 Diamondbacks had the worst September OPS in the field and reached the World Series.

That cuts both ways for this bracket. Boston’s 12-12 September, the Phillies’ final-week meltdown and the Cubs’ road-weary finish are less damning than they look, and San Diego’s 17-3 closing kick guarantees nothing. Samulski’s advice is to trust season-long quality over a hot month, which favors teams like the Cubs, Dodgers and Brewers. It’s also why our picks lean on full-season rotations and run prevention rather than September form, and why no bracket, ours included, should be expected to survive October intact.

What this field tells us

October can’t be bought, at least not the easy way. Three of the four teams with byes carry three of the four smallest payrolls in the field: Cleveland ($70 million), Tampa Bay ($90 million) and Milwaukee ($125 million). The Dodgers are the only big spender who earned a week off. Four of the five biggest payrolls (Yankees, Phillies, Braves and Astros) have to survive a best-of-three first, and Houston spent $246 million to go 81-81.

Run prevention is what separated the bye teams. All four finished with team ERAs below the 4.17 MLB average, and Milwaukee (3.51) and Los Angeles (3.55) backed theirs up with FIPs under 3.75. Offense was a much looser filter. Four playoff teams scored fewer runs than an average club, the best record in baseball belongs to the team that hit the fewest homers, and only the Cubs and Dodgers were clearly above average at both getting on base and hitting for power.

The cheap contenders are also the young ones. The White Sox (25.8), Guardians (26.9) and Brewers (27.3) have the three youngest lineups in the field by average age (team batting), and all three cost less than $126 million. The Dodgers (30.9) and Phillies (30.1) have the two oldest and are among the four most expensive. Young, inexpensive, pitching-first rosters are how mid-market teams got in. The veteran payrolls still have the higher ceilings, but they also carry most of the health questions: Aaron Judge’s calf, Shohei Ohtani’s knee and Jesús Luzardo’s shoulder.

Finally, the gap between ERA and FIP flags which staffs may have had help. Atlanta (0.50 runs), Chicago (0.48), New York (0.47) and Tampa Bay (0.34) all allowed noticeably fewer runs than their FIPs predict, while Philadelphia is the only team that pitched better than its ERA. Over three or five games that matters less than who’s on the mound, but it’s a reason not to treat the Yankees’ MLB-best ERA as untouchable.

What we like most, and question most, about each team

Depth: what money buys, and what the farm buys

Payroll doesn’t guarantee a playoff spot, but it does buy insurance. A big payroll lets a team carry proven veterans all over the roster, so an injury or a slump gets covered by a capable replacement instead of a Triple-A call-up. The Yankees are the case study. Aaron Judge played just 66 games and four of their six starting pitchers missed significant time, yet New York still posted the AL’s best run differential, +138 (Pinstripe Alley). The Dodgers, with the oldest roster in the field and a long injured list, still won 100.

There is a second way to build depth, and it runs through the farm system. A strong system supplies cheap replacements when injuries hit and trade chips when a contender needs help at the deadline. Milwaukee showed the first half of that on the final weekend alone: Andrew Vaughn went to the injured list, Cooper Pratt was scratched, and the Brewers swept anyway, and 10 different pitchers recorded a save for them this season (Brew Crew Ball).

Source: MLB Pipeline farm system rankings (2023 preseason, 2024 midseason, 2025 preseason, 2026 midseason) · USA Today Opening Day payroll

The pattern is hard to miss. The four teams with byes had the four best average farm rankings in the field over these four lists, and three of them did it with bottom-four payrolls. The Dodgers are the only club doing both at once. They’re back at No. 1 even after sending two Top 100 prospects to Detroit for Tarik Skubal (MLB Pipeline, 2026).

The teams that spent big and let their systems thin out are all playing this week. Houston has ranked 29th on five straight lists, which leaves little cushion when the big-league roster underperforms, and a $246 million payroll finished 81-81. San Diego is 30th after years of trading prospects at the deadline. The Cubs have traded away 15 players who now appear on other teams’ Top 30 lists, more than anyone, and fell from eighth to 28th in a year and a half. The Yankees slid from 13th to 27th while trading to reinforce the big-league club. Those trades built the bullpens and lineups these teams are bringing into October. The cost shows up in depth.

Boston shows the trade-off in real time. The Red Sox fell 10 spots in one cycle, from 14th to 24th, after graduating three rookie pitchers and sending three of their six best prospects to Baltimore for Adley Rutschman. That same deal helped push the Orioles’ system from 13th to seventh (2023 rankings, 2024, 2025).

Comparing the leagues

Since the National League adopted the DH in 2022, both leagues play the same game, and since 2023 every team has played every other team. That makes AL-vs.-NL comparisons more direct than they used to be. Three things still differ: the league each team spends most of its schedule in, the division it plays 52 games against, and its home park.

Start with the leagues. The NL won the interleague series 381-334 this season, a .533 winning percentage (StatMuse). NL teams also scored 4.61 runs per game to the AL’s 4.35, and Coors Field isn’t the reason, since the Rockies scored almost exactly a league-average number of runs (team batting). The NL was the stronger league this year.

The divisions matter even more, because 52 of every team’s 162 games come against division rivals. Here’s how each division did against everyone outside it:

Houston is the extreme case: its division played .424 ball against everyone else, which is how 81-81 won a title. Cleveland and the White Sox also came out of a below-.500 division. Tampa Bay’s 98 wins and the Yankees’ 93 came with a third of their schedule against the best division in baseball, and Milwaukee’s 103 came in the NL’s best.

Parks are the last piece, and they’re why raw numbers can mislead. OPS+ and ERA+ adjust for both park and league, with 100 as average.

Source: Baseball-Reference team batting (OPS+) and pitching (ERA+) · 2026 regular season

On that scale, the Yankees (99 OPS+, 130 ERA+), Dodgers (109, 120) and Brewers (105, 120) are the most complete teams, and Houston is the only one with a below-average staff. Philadelphia’s .707 OPS looks close to average until you adjust for its park and league, which drops it to an 89 OPS+, lowest in the field. One more adjustment belongs on top: because the NL was the stronger league, a 105 for an NL team probably means a bit more than a 105 for an AL team. That’s a point in favor of the Brewers and Dodgers, and a small discount for the AL Central clubs.

Adjusting for who they played

OPS+ and ERA+ handle parks and leagues, but not opponents, and no two teams play the same schedule. The Yankees never bat against their own staff, the best in baseball, but see Tampa Bay and Boston pitching 13 times each. Houston’s hitters and pitchers spent a third of their season against the weakest division in the sport. To estimate how much that matters, we weighted each team’s schedule (13 games against each division rival, about six against each other team in its league and about three against each team in the other league) and compared the runs its opponents scored and allowed with the MLB average.

The effect is real but small: most teams move by less than a tenth of a run per game, and the order barely changes. The biggest adjustment belongs to Houston. Its pitchers allowed 4.73 runs per game while facing weak AL West lineups all year, and against an average schedule that figure would rise to about 4.83, so a staff that already ranked last in the field is a little worse than its raw numbers show. The two AL Central clubs slip a little too, while the Phillies, who played in a tough NL East, gain a bit. The lesson for the rest of this preview is about precision. A ranking like the Yankees’ sixth place in slugging deserves a grain of salt, since sixth and 15th are separated by just seven points of slugging, about the size of these schedule effects. Tiers are meaningful; exact ranks inside them usually aren’t. That’s also why the head-to-head records above, where two teams faced the same opponent in the same parks, are worth a look even in small samples.

Odds and our bracket

The Dodgers are the clear betting favorite, but a 10,000-simulation model sees a near dead heat between L.A. and Milwaukee.

Both sportsbooks rate the Astros above the White Sox, the reverse of the model and of our upset pick. Odds are as of Sept. 28th, from FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings.

Our picks

• Wild Card: Yankees over Red Sox in 3; White Sox over Astros in 3; Padres over Cubs in 3; Braves over Phillies in 3.
• ALDS: Yankees over Rays in 5; Guardians over White Sox in 4.
• NLDS: Brewers over Padres in 5; Dodgers over Braves in 4.
• ALCS: Yankees over Guardians in 5. Four starters who can pitch deep outlast Cleveland’s thin offense.
• NLCS: Brewers over Dodgers in 7. Misiorowski and Henderson flip last year’s result, and L.A.’s shaky late innings finally cost it.
• World Series: Brewers over Yankees in 6. Milwaukee wins its first title, and Orioles fans get to watch the Yankees lose a World Series.

The post 2026 MLB Playoff Preview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The public version of the dispute is simple: owners want a salary cap to fix competitive balance, players refuse to have their earnings artificially limited. That version is true as far as it goes, and it is not what either side is actually fighting about.

The tell

Two facts reveal the real shape of the negotiation.

The first is that MLB has conditioned essentially every concession it has made on the union accepting a cap. The June 25 package was substantial by any measure: a minimum salary increase to $1 million, free agency after five years for players 30 and older, elimination of the qualifying offer, elimination of deferred compensation, and a “Cornerstone Player” provision modeled on the NBA’s Bird Rights. The August 27 roster proposals added more. Every item was contingent on a payroll cap and floor.

That is not how a side negotiates over money. It is how a side negotiates for a structural change. A league trying to buy competitive balance trades pieces. A league trying to install a new economic system bundles everything behind one gate and waits.

The second fact comes from ESPN’s reporting that stagnating franchise values motivate a meaningful bloc of owners as much as competitive balance does. Fixed labor costs make a business easier to sell and raise the multiple it sells at. The Padres recently fetched $3.9 billion, a record for a baseball franchise, which complicates the narrative but has not changed the calculation. This is, in substantial part, a valuation play wearing a parity jersey.

The union’s position has a symmetrical hidden core. Interim executive director Bruce Meyer has argued that player share in 2026 is already well above 50 percent using MLB’s own definitions of revenue, and that had the league’s proposal been in force this season, players would have lost more than half a billion dollars. Meyer has called a cap “a form of institutionalized collusion.”

But the sharpest objection is to the escrow mechanism buried in MLB’s proposal. Escrow, used in the NBA and NHL, withholds a percentage of salaries and returns it to the league if revenues fall short. NBA players forfeited close to $500 million that way last year. Escrow converts guaranteed contracts into conditional ones, and guaranteed money is the one structural advantage MLB players hold over every other unionized athlete in North America. When a player says “we’re not playing if there’s a cap,” that is what the sentence is protecting.

Where the two sides actually are

The gap is enormous. It is also narrower in places than the rhetoric suggests.

Both sides have proposed centralizing and sharing more local television revenue. MLB wants full centralization with equal distribution among all 30 clubs. The union proposed a $50 million per-team contribution with two-thirds of the remainder pooled and split. This is the single largest structural fix available to the sport, and it is already common ground in principle.

Both sides have proposed forcing low-revenue teams to spend. MLB’s floor is $171.2 million. The union’s “competitive integrity tax” would penalize teams spending less than half the base luxury-tax threshold, which at their proposed $300 million base implies roughly $150 million. That is a $20 million gap on a concept neither side disputes.

Both sides agree young players are underpaid. MLB offered a $1 million minimum; the union asked for $1.5 million. MLB has already accepted the union’s proposals on earlier free agency for players 30 and older and on eliminating the qualifying offer.

What remains irreconcilable: the hard ceiling, the escrow system, the definition of “baseball revenue,” maximum contract lengths, and the amateur entry overhaul. On that last item, MLB has proposed barring anyone under 20 from the domestic draft, cutting it from 20 rounds to 12 with a hard-slotted $200 million bonus pool, and instituting an international draft on the same terms. The union countered in July with the mirror image: preserve high school and junior college eligibility, keep 20 rounds, raise the pools, keep bonuses negotiable.

The arguments in circulation

A handful of fan arguments have hardened into conventional wisdom. They deserve to be taken seriously, and most of them are half right.

Some would suggest the cap threat is a bluff, because owners of low-revenue clubs will never actually accept a floor that eats their profit margins. This is the most interesting argument in circulation, and it underrates how the package is constructed. The floor is funded by the local-TV centralization. If Miami’s and Pittsburgh’s revenue base rises because local media money is pooled and split equally, a $171 million floor becomes affordable rather than ruinous. MLB paired the two proposals for exactly that reason.

The genuine internal ownership tension runs the other direction. The large markets are the ones surrendering something real by centralizing local TV, and reporting suggests Manfred secured their agreement contingent on getting a cap. Which produces an uncomfortable implication for the union: if the cap dies, the centralization offer probably dies with it, and the sport loses its best available parity fix as collateral damage.

Some would suggest a cap only helps the handful of wealthy teams that aren’t the Dodgers, and won’t put stars in Milwaukee or Kansas City. True of a bare cap. Less true of this package. A ceiling combined with a floor and equalized local media does move money downward in a way a ceiling alone would not. The more durable version of the objection is that it changes talent distribution less than advertised, because the relationship between payroll and regular-season winning is weak, and the Rays, Brewers and Guardians keep demonstrating that the binding constraint is competence rather than cash.

Some would suggest a cap is fundamentally un-American, an artificial limit on what a person can earn. The counterpoint writes itself: the draft, hard bonus slotting, six years of team control, the reserve system’s residue, and baseball’s antitrust exemption are all restraints that already exist and that fans largely enjoy. The question was never restraint versus freedom. It is which restraints, and who captures the surplus they create. Fans who admit they prefer a more constrained sport while acknowledging the hypocrisy are being more honest than either negotiating party.

Some would suggest agents, particularly Scott Boras, are the real obstacle to labor peace. Plausible in prior cycles, overstated in this one. Boras’s influence has visibly receded since the sluggish 2023-24 free agent market, and the union’s posture is being set by Meyer and general-counsel-turned-deputy Matt Nussbaum, not by any agency. The obstacle here is structural.

Some would suggest the wave of new television partnerships gives owners too much to lose, and they will therefore concede. This may be exactly backward. The media rights reset after the 2028 season cuts toward owner patience rather than urgency. A cost-certain, capped league is an easier product to sell to rights buyers. An owner can construct a defensible argument that absorbing damage in 2027 to enter the 2028 negotiations with a cap already in hand is a positive trade. That arithmetic is the most alarming thing about this dispute.

Some would suggest fans should refuse to take sides, since this is billionaires arguing with millionaires. Understandable, and it obscures a useful distinction. Neither proposal lowers a ticket price, a parking fee, or a streaming subscription. On the consumer side, fans lose regardless. The only way fans gain anything is through structural changes that make following the sport better, and those changes are available in this negotiation.

Leverage, and the calendar that actually matters

The time asymmetry matters more than the war chests. A December 1 lockout costs owners almost nothing, because no games are scheduled, and costs players nothing directly, because no paychecks are due. December through February is theater. The first real financial pressure arrives when spring training reporting dates pass in mid-February. The operative deadline is mid-to-late March. In 2022, the sides settled on March 10 after a 99-day lockout and played a full 162 with doubleheaders.

Owners hold: fan polling that favors a cap, a reported $2 billion fund to absorb a stoppage, the 2028 media reset and potential expansion fees as future sweeteners, and an ownership group Manfred has publicly described as the most unified he has seen.

Players hold: a licensing-funded lockout fund, an institutional memory of winning in 1995, and an executive board that has closed ranks behind Meyer despite his interim title.

The union’s vulnerability is not leadership. Meyer led the 2020 agreement, the 2022 agreement, and the 2023 minor league deal, and players surveyed anonymously by ESPN described the new leadership group in consistently positive terms. The vulnerability is arithmetic. That same survey broke roughly 16 players in firm opposition to a cap against five who were open to further discussion. Solid, not unanimous. MLB’s June 25 package was built precisely for that seam: real gains for young players and for 30-year-old free agents, with the cost falling on the top of the market. If unity fractures, it fractures in March, and it fractures among pre-arbitration players who have never missed a paycheck.

The owners’ vulnerability is the nuclear option. Declaring impasse and unilaterally implementing new terms is what converted 1994 into a canceled World Series and an NLRB injunction. The 1998 Curt Flood Act preserved player antitrust claims against MLB on labor matters, meaning a decertification threat carries weight it did not carry three decades ago. Any move toward implementation turns a lockout into a two-year war.

What a sensible deal looks like

There is an agreement available that delivers most of what fans say they want without a hard cap.

Centralize and equally share local media revenue, decoupled from the cap fight. Both sides have already proposed versions of it. It is the real parity fix and it should not be held hostage.

Install a hard, enforceable floor in the $165 to $175 million range, funded by the above, with penalties that actually bite: forfeited revenue-sharing receipts, lost draft picks, lost international bonus pool money. The union’s competitive integrity tax is directionally correct and far too weak.

Replace the ceiling with a punitive top tax tier. A base near $290 to $300 million with escalating rates that become close to confiscatory above roughly $350 million functions as a soft cap without touching guaranteed contracts. This is the only face-saving landing zone visible from here.

Leave guarantees alone. No escrow, no maximum contract lengths. These are where the union will genuinely choose a lost season over a concession.

Front-load gains where most players live. A minimum above $1.2 million, arbitration eligibility at two years, a pre-arbitration bonus pool well north of $100 million, plus the free agency and qualifying offer changes already agreed. Roughly seventy percent of major leaguers never sign a nine-figure contract. This is where solidarity is purchased.

Take the international draft, drop the high school ban. The international signing system has real and long-documented corruption problems, and a draft is overdue. Barring domestic players under 20 is a transparent mechanism for delaying debuts, suppressing the age at which stars reach free agency, and shifting development costs onto college programs. The union will read it that way because that is what it is.

Put expansion on the table. Two franchises at $2 billion or more apiece, two additional floor-level payrolls, and the realignment fans have wanted for years. Nobody has formally raised it. Whoever does is signaling they want to close.

Expected outcomes

Reasonable probabilities as of mid-September 2026:

The single most likely path: a lockout running from December through somewhere between mid-March and mid-April 2027, resolved without a hard cap but with centralized local television, a genuine spending floor, a steeper top tax tier, and meaningful gains for young players. A compressed spring training, a delayed opener, a schedule of 150 to 158 games padded with doubleheaders. Something close to 2022 with more scar tissue and a worse aftertaste.

Losing the whole season remains unlikely but is no longer unthinkable. The 2004-05 NHL precedent exists, the owners have the fund to sustain it, and the 2028 media reset gives them a reason to be patient that the players do not have.

Seven things to watch

1. Does MLB ever de-link a concession from the cap? One unconditional offer means the cap is a bargaining chip. Zero by February means it is not.
2. Does the local-TV centralization offer survive if the cap falls away? This reveals whether large-market owners were ever genuinely bought in.
3. Does the union counter with any ceiling mechanism at all? Even a punitive super-tax tier would mark the landing zone.
4. Player unity in late February, when checks stop. Watch for a public break from a mid-tier veteran rather than a star.
5. Any movement toward declaring impasse and implementing terms. That is the 1994 trigger, and it invalidates every projection above.
6. Decertification talk from the union. Post-Flood Act it is a live weapon, and the threat alone moves owners.
7. Expansion entering the conversation. That is what the endgame looks like.

The honest summary for anyone who simply wants baseball in April: neither proposal lowers what you pay. Neither side is negotiating on your behalf. The version of this fight where you get more competitive balance without losing a season runs through centralized local television and a hard spending floor, and both sides have already endorsed both ideas.

Whether they are willing to detach those from the thing they cannot agree on is the entire ballgame.

The post Baseball’s Coming Winter: What the MLB Labor Fight Is Actually About appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

How did these teams get here?

How do these teams compare?

Let’s take a look.

The Yankees won the AL East, finishing 94-68.
The Dodgers won the NL West, finishing 98-64.

New York was 3rd overall in runs scored with 815.
LA was 2nd overall in runs scored with 842.

The Yankees were 3rd in on-base %, and 4th in slugging %.
The Dodgers were 2nd in on-base %, and 1st in slugging %.

New York was 7th in era, while LA was 13th.

New York was 44-37 at home, and 50-31 on the road.
LA was 52-29 at home, and 46-35 on the road.

The Yankees were 58-40 before the All-Star game, and 36-28 after.
The Dodgers were 56-41 before the All-Star game, and 42-23 after.

New York was 8-8 in Extra Inning games, 19-18 in 1 run games.
LA was 9-7 in Extra Inning games, 21-17 in 1 run games.

The Bronx Bombers were 23-23 against the National League.
The Boys in Blue were 30-16 against the American League.

The Yankees and Dodgers had a 3 game series in New York in June, with LA taking 2 of 3.

While not yet announced, Shohei Ohtani will be the NL MVP, and Aaron Judge will be the AL MVP.

This will be the 12th all-time World Series between the Yankees and Dodgers, the 5th time since the Dodgers moved to LA for the 1958 season.

The Yankees have won 27 World Championships, this is New York’s first World Series appearance since 2009.
The Dodgers have won 7 World Championships, this is LA’s fourth World Series appearance since 2017.

Since 2010, NY has won the AL East 5 times (2011, 2012, 2019, 2022, and 2024). They’ve been a Wild Card 6 times (2010, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2021).
Since 2010, LA has won the NL West 11 times (2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2024). They’ve been a Wild Card 1 time (2021).

On Opening Day, the Yankees had the 2nd highest payroll in baseball at $303M, while the Dodgers had the 3rd highest payroll at $249.8M.

In the Playoffs, the Yankees had a bye in the Wild Card round. They then beat KC 3 games to 1 in the Division Series, and Cleveland 4 games to 1 in the American League Championship Series.
In the Playoffs, the Dodgers had a bye in the Wild Card round. They then beat San Diego 3 games to 2 in the Division Series, and the NY Mets 4 games to 2 in the National League Championship Series.

ESPN’s Analytics are giving the Dodgers a 52.2% chance of winning the World Series.

Injuries?

Former Oriole Evan Phillips was not included on the Dodgers World Series roster.
They were able to get back Alex Vesia, Brusdar Graterol, and Miguel Rojas.

Tyler Glasnow was lost for the season in August with elbow soreness.
Clayton Kershaw was also lost in August with a bone spur.
Dustin May was out the entire year.

Nestor Cortes is on the Yankees World Series roster, despite not pitching since September 18th.
It looks like DJ LeMahieu was left off the WS roster.

Predictions?

ESPN’s David Schoenfield says analysis shows that it would take a Best of 75 to determine the best team in a matchup of two essentially equal teams.

Instead we will see a Best of 7, and pretend something can really be gleaned from it.

I like the Dodgers lineup and bullpen better than the Yankees.

I like the Yankees starters a bit better.

You’ve got plenty of star power in this series, not just with Ohtani and Judge; but also Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman, Gerrit Cole, Gincarlo Stanton, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, etc.

I’ll take the Dodgers in 6, with Betts being the World Series MVP.

The post Previewing The World Series – New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

After finishing the first half with a record of 58-38, they spent the second half as a .500 team, going 33-33 which included a 13-12 record in September. Of course, their September record does include a 5-1 stretch to end the year but still, it’s fair to say that fans might struggle with optimism about how they finished the year.  

So, let’s put how the Orioles finished this year into context. We’ll begin by looking at how recent teams to make the World Series finished the season before comparing them to the Orioles and then we’ll see how Baltimore’s finish to the season stacks up against everyone else who made this year’s postseason.  

2023 

Texas Rangers (winner): 90-72 overall, 38-33 second half, 15-14 in September/October
Arizona Diamondbacks: 84-78 overall, 32-39 second half, 15-13 in September/October 

You don’t need to go back very far to find a pair of teams who made the World Series without amazing finishes to the regular season.  

Both of last year’s teams had pedestrian performances across September and October, with the Rangers quite notably losing three of four against the Seattle Mariners at the end of the season to hand the division to the Houston Astros.  

Meanwhile, the D-Backs’ 15-13 record to end the year helped them survive a second half where they were seven games below .500. Their 32-39 second-half record was the fourth-worst mark in the National League, but it certainly didn’t seem to matter once they began the postseason. 

2022 

Houston Astros (winner): 106-56 overall, 47-24 second half, 22-9 in September/October
Philadelphia Phillies: 87-75 overall, 38-32 second half, 14-17 in September/October 

While 2023’s World Series featured a pair of teams who didn’t exactly finish the season on a heater, that wasn’t the case for the 2022 Astros. After an 11-10 April, Houston won at least 60 percent of their games in every other month.  

As for the Phillies, they performed better after Joe Girardi’s departure following a 22-29 start, but their improvement under Rob Thomson didn’t include a strong finish to the year. They spent September going on two separate five-game losing streaks and went 2-5 against an Atlanta Braves team they would later eliminate in the Division Series.  

2021  

Atlanta Braves (winner): 88-73 overall, 44-28 second half, 18-11 in September/October
Houston Astros: 95-67 overall, 40-31 second half, 17-13 in September/October 

The Braves were certainly an example of a team who heated up as the year progressed. After losing on June 16, Atlanta was 30-35 and eight games out of first. Following that loss, Atlanta ended the year by going 58-38, a .604 winning percentage that helped them win the NL East by 6.5 games. Their 18-11 record in September/October included a 12-2 heater to finish the season. 

Meanwhile, the 2021 Astros weren’t quite as impressive as their 2022 version, with worse records across the full season, the second half and in September/October. However, it’s not like a 40-31 second half and 17-13 record after August 31 is limping to the finish line, just a demonstration that they did better the following season.  

(2020 didn’t have a 162-game season as you might recall, so we’re skipping it.) 

2019 

Washington Nationals (winner): 93-69 overall, 46-27 second half, 17-11 in September/October
Houston Astros: 107-55 overall, 50-22 second half, 19-6 in September/October 

The Nationals quite infamously began their 2019 season 19-31, sitting 12 games below .500 after they lost on May 23. However, they flipped a switch after that loss and their record after from that point forward was 74-38. As you can guess, that 74-38 record included a 46-27 second half and a 17-11 record in September/October. 

In comparison, the 2019 Astros finished the season better than the Nationals and better than their 2022 and 2021 counterparts. They barely missed a second-half winning percentage of .700 (it was .694) and their 19-6 record in September/October was the best in the American League.  

2018 

Boston Red Sox (winner): 108-54 overall, 40-24 second half, 15-11 in September/October
Los Angeles Dodgers: 92-71 overall, 39-28 second half, 19-9 in September/October 

While the Red Sox definitely had an excellent second half, they still cooled down a bit relative to their first-half pace. They had a .694 winning percentage in the first half and their second-half winning percentage took a mild dip down to .625. Their September was also pedestrian by the standards they had set during the rest of the season, posting their only month with a winning percentage below .600. However, their underperforming in the second half and September didn’t exactly make a dent as they won the World Series in five games. 

Over in Los Angeles, the Dodgers began 2018 in a lukewarm manner, sitting at 30-31 after a loss on June 6 but ended the year going 62-40 with pretty strong records in the second half and in September/October. The Dodgers also had to play an NL West tiebreaker that year, beating the Colorado Rockies in game 163 to give them a bonus boost of momentum entering that year’s postseason. 

So, how do the Orioles stack up? 

Compared to the last ten teams to make a full-season World Series, the Orioles have the second-worst record in the second half, only sitting above last year’s D-Backs. And if they were to win the World Series, they would do so with a second-half record worse than the prior five full-season winners. 

Meanwhile, their record in September/October is slightly better, with their winning percentage ranking higher than the 2023 Rangers and 2022 Phillies. 

In addition to comparing this year’s team to previous pennant winners, it also seems useful to see how their finish to the season ranks relative to everyone else in this year’s postseason. (I’m including the Braves, D-Backs and Mets due to when this will be published even though one of them won’t make it.) 

The Orioles don’t look particularly impressive here either, but if you’re a big believer in momentum then they might’ve gotten pretty lucky to avoid the Detroit Tigers in the Wild Card round.  

The Tigers own the AL’s best record for both the second half and September while the Kansas City Royals had the tenth-best second-half record among possible playoff teams and will be the only team to enter the playoffs with a losing September. 

The post Taking A Closer Look At Momentum Entering The Playoffs appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Who should the O’s be targeting in trades?

What are the questions facing O’s GM Mike Elias?

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The post The Warehouse – Bradish To Begin ’24 On IL; NL East Overview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

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Most Uncertainty

That would be this season. And it’s a season unlike one we’ve seen in a while. At least from this vantage point, meaning my couch in March, this season doesn’t project to have any huge mammoth 100-win teams. Sure, one could emerge, that’s always possible, but to look at the rosters, just about every team has more weaknesses than we’ve seen from potential division and league leaders. And that’s not a bad thing! Parity isn’t always desirable but after four 100-win teams last year (plus a 99-win Yankees team) and three the season before, the fact FanGraphs doesn’t project any team to win more than 93 games this season gives every game that much more significance. And combined with the new expanded playoffs, there’s all of a sudden some extra space for some teams that haven’t made noise recently to surprise. 

Best off-season move

It’s hard to say signing a player through their age-39 season is the best signing of the off-season, but I guess that’s what I’m saying. *sigh* In the end, while any specific deal is about the money first and foremost, Aaron Judge re-signing with the Yankees really isn’t about that. It was about the Yankees keeping their best player (and by far!) In New York through the rest of his potentially Hall of Fame career. Sure, these deals often end badly, but if Judge is DHing when 2031 rolls around, that’ll be fine. And, let’s be honest, it’s not like the Yankees were doing anything better with that $40 million each year. New York is supposed to win the World Series every year, so from that standpoint, they really couldn’t afford not to keep Judge.

Worst off-season move

There’s a few that don’t seem likely to age well, and Xander Bogaerts to San Diego isn’t necessarily one of those, but it’s just a bizarre move nonetheless. First of all, there are a number of indicators that Bogaerts six-win 2022 season wasn’t a sustainable one, and in fact many of Bogaerts batted ball and defensive metrics are going the wrong way and have been doing so for a few years. But what makes this so strange is that the Padres already have two other starting-quality shortstops on their roster! And one of those, Fernando Tatis, Jr, is going to make more than Bogaerts! In order to pay Bogaerts $281 million through is age-40 season, the Padres are moving shortstop Tatis to right field, shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to second base, and second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first base. It’s a strange use of resources. On one hand, you have to admire the ‘get every good player’ approach, but also, was this the best or even close to the best use of $281 million? I have a feeling this one is going to look bad pretty quickly.

Most “What-are-they-doing?” signing

The Chicago White Sox are planning to play baseball this year, presumably. I know this because they signed outfielder Andrew Benintendi to a five year, $75 million contract. The deal itself is fine (great if you’re Benintendi!), but it’s a lot of money to spend on a player who doesn’t really offer a lot. He’s a slightly above average hitter, but he’s not fast, he’s got a weak arm, and he doesn’t really hit the ball hard. Yes, the sum of his parts add up to a slightly above average player right now, but will they in five years? Will they in two years? The upside here is pretty low and the downside is pretty high, at least for a team that doesn’t spend much. If the White Sox had $75 million burning a hole in their pocket, I can think of a few better ways to spend it. 

Most exciting rookie

This is an Orioles site, so Gunnar Henderson is who you should expect here. And I’m very excited to see Henderson, but I’m not quite as excited to see Henderson as I am to see Corbin Carroll of the Diamondbacks. With 32 games of MLB experience under his belt, Arizona signed Carroll to an eight year deal with two options on top of that. Why? Carroll can do it all. He’s fast, he can play center field, he can hit for average, and for power. That’s the whole package and I’m excited to see how his first full season goes. 

Biggest Fall in the Standings

This one is kinda easy. The Dodgers won 111 games last season and there’s no way this team is going to approach that number again. In fact, I don’t expect them to win 95 in 2023, but even if they do, that’ll be a drop of 16 games! If they only win 87 like FanGraphs projects, that’s a drop off of 24 games. Which is a lot. Don’t get me wrong, the Dodgers are a good team and still a threat in the National League, but show me someone who looks at their roster and sees a 100 win team and I’ll show you someone who’s had too many Dodger dogs. 

Biggest Rise in the Standings

There’s a few candidates here, but the one that stands out most to me is the Rangers. Admittedly that’s partly because they won just 68 games last season, so there’s some room to go up. But also because if you look at their roster, it’s not that bad. It’s not good! But it’s not bad either. Adding Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi should give them some above average innings, and the return of prospect Josh Jung from injury combines with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to give them some pretty good hitters at the front of their lineup. Yes, the back of the lineup isn’t awe-inspiring but we’re not projecting them to win the division, just to win a chunk more games than 68. 

Most Under-the-Radar team

It’s hard to say the Orioles on an Orioles site, that seems too on the nose, so I’ll say the Red Sox. Boston lost Xander Bogaerts and replaced him with… their center fielder? They’re going to use a career backup catcher as their starter and a career minor league catcher as their backup. Everyone in their projected starting rotation is A), coming off of a major injury or, B) is Corey Kluber. Their biggest off-season move was not trading Rafael Devers. And yet, I kinda like this team. Bizarrely there is upside. Devers was fantastic last season until an injury ruined his numbers in July. Triston Casas’ combination of power and patience from first base is exactly what this lineup needs, and in fact they’ll get more of that from WBC star Masataka Yoshida in left field. Nobody is picking the Red Sox to do anything in ’23, but maybe they should be. Maybe.

Biggest Bust Potential

The Blue Jays might win the World Series. That’s entirely on the table as far as possibilities go. But, there is a universe, and it’s not necessarily even that remote of a universe, where they miss the playoffs again. The Jays spent their off-season remaking their outfield, removing good hitters (Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel), and replacing them with good fielders (Kevin Kiermaier, Daulton Varsho). Thing about that is neither Varsho or Kiermaier are good hitters. But the biggest bust potential, to me, lies in their rotation. Kevin Gausman is my Cy Young pick, but Yosei Kikuchi and Jose Berrios were both awful last season and both are being depended on to hold down a spot again. If Alek Manoah takes a step back (entirely possible based on his stats last season) or Chris Bassitt’s particular brand of old-pitcher trickery doesn’t work, the team could be in a world of trouble.

MVP

It’s hard to pick against Shohei Ohtani, but I’m going to do that and say the AL MVP will be Mike Trout. Last year Trout had a six-win season in just 119 games. That projects to be a 7.5 win season over 150 games, which would have put Trout third baseball in WAR behind only Aaron Judge and Ohtani. I don’t see Judge pulling a 2022 again, so it’s down to Mike vs. Shohei in the AL, and right now I’ll take Mike.

In the NL, I’m going to guess Mookie Betts. Mookie’s had a fantastic few seasons in Los Angeles but he hasn’t really gone off since his 10.5 win season in 2018 with Boston. It says here he’ll do that again. 

World Series

Give me the Braves over the Mariners in six games, and definitely when October ends, feel free to throw what will then be an extremely silly prediction in my face. Thanks for reading.

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