The public version of the dispute is simple: owners want a salary cap to fix competitive balance, players refuse to have their earnings artificially limited. That version is true as far as it goes, and it is not what either side is actually fighting about.

The tell

Two facts reveal the real shape of the negotiation.

The first is that MLB has conditioned essentially every concession it has made on the union accepting a cap. The June 25 package was substantial by any measure: a minimum salary increase to $1 million, free agency after five years for players 30 and older, elimination of the qualifying offer, elimination of deferred compensation, and a “Cornerstone Player” provision modeled on the NBA’s Bird Rights. The August 27 roster proposals added more. Every item was contingent on a payroll cap and floor.

That is not how a side negotiates over money. It is how a side negotiates for a structural change. A league trying to buy competitive balance trades pieces. A league trying to install a new economic system bundles everything behind one gate and waits.

The second fact comes from ESPN’s reporting that stagnating franchise values motivate a meaningful bloc of owners as much as competitive balance does. Fixed labor costs make a business easier to sell and raise the multiple it sells at. The Padres recently fetched $3.9 billion, a record for a baseball franchise, which complicates the narrative but has not changed the calculation. This is, in substantial part, a valuation play wearing a parity jersey.

The union’s position has a symmetrical hidden core. Interim executive director Bruce Meyer has argued that player share in 2026 is already well above 50 percent using MLB’s own definitions of revenue, and that had the league’s proposal been in force this season, players would have lost more than half a billion dollars. Meyer has called a cap “a form of institutionalized collusion.”

But the sharpest objection is to the escrow mechanism buried in MLB’s proposal. Escrow, used in the NBA and NHL, withholds a percentage of salaries and returns it to the league if revenues fall short. NBA players forfeited close to $500 million that way last year. Escrow converts guaranteed contracts into conditional ones, and guaranteed money is the one structural advantage MLB players hold over every other unionized athlete in North America. When a player says “we’re not playing if there’s a cap,” that is what the sentence is protecting.

Where the two sides actually are

The gap is enormous. It is also narrower in places than the rhetoric suggests.

Both sides have proposed centralizing and sharing more local television revenue. MLB wants full centralization with equal distribution among all 30 clubs. The union proposed a $50 million per-team contribution with two-thirds of the remainder pooled and split. This is the single largest structural fix available to the sport, and it is already common ground in principle.

Both sides have proposed forcing low-revenue teams to spend. MLB’s floor is $171.2 million. The union’s “competitive integrity tax” would penalize teams spending less than half the base luxury-tax threshold, which at their proposed $300 million base implies roughly $150 million. That is a $20 million gap on a concept neither side disputes.

Both sides agree young players are underpaid. MLB offered a $1 million minimum; the union asked for $1.5 million. MLB has already accepted the union’s proposals on earlier free agency for players 30 and older and on eliminating the qualifying offer.

What remains irreconcilable: the hard ceiling, the escrow system, the definition of “baseball revenue,” maximum contract lengths, and the amateur entry overhaul. On that last item, MLB has proposed barring anyone under 20 from the domestic draft, cutting it from 20 rounds to 12 with a hard-slotted $200 million bonus pool, and instituting an international draft on the same terms. The union countered in July with the mirror image: preserve high school and junior college eligibility, keep 20 rounds, raise the pools, keep bonuses negotiable.

The arguments in circulation

A handful of fan arguments have hardened into conventional wisdom. They deserve to be taken seriously, and most of them are half right.

Some would suggest the cap threat is a bluff, because owners of low-revenue clubs will never actually accept a floor that eats their profit margins. This is the most interesting argument in circulation, and it underrates how the package is constructed. The floor is funded by the local-TV centralization. If Miami’s and Pittsburgh’s revenue base rises because local media money is pooled and split equally, a $171 million floor becomes affordable rather than ruinous. MLB paired the two proposals for exactly that reason.

The genuine internal ownership tension runs the other direction. The large markets are the ones surrendering something real by centralizing local TV, and reporting suggests Manfred secured their agreement contingent on getting a cap. Which produces an uncomfortable implication for the union: if the cap dies, the centralization offer probably dies with it, and the sport loses its best available parity fix as collateral damage.

Some would suggest a cap only helps the handful of wealthy teams that aren’t the Dodgers, and won’t put stars in Milwaukee or Kansas City. True of a bare cap. Less true of this package. A ceiling combined with a floor and equalized local media does move money downward in a way a ceiling alone would not. The more durable version of the objection is that it changes talent distribution less than advertised, because the relationship between payroll and regular-season winning is weak, and the Rays, Brewers and Guardians keep demonstrating that the binding constraint is competence rather than cash.

Some would suggest a cap is fundamentally un-American, an artificial limit on what a person can earn. The counterpoint writes itself: the draft, hard bonus slotting, six years of team control, the reserve system’s residue, and baseball’s antitrust exemption are all restraints that already exist and that fans largely enjoy. The question was never restraint versus freedom. It is which restraints, and who captures the surplus they create. Fans who admit they prefer a more constrained sport while acknowledging the hypocrisy are being more honest than either negotiating party.

Some would suggest agents, particularly Scott Boras, are the real obstacle to labor peace. Plausible in prior cycles, overstated in this one. Boras’s influence has visibly receded since the sluggish 2023-24 free agent market, and the union’s posture is being set by Meyer and general-counsel-turned-deputy Matt Nussbaum, not by any agency. The obstacle here is structural.

Some would suggest the wave of new television partnerships gives owners too much to lose, and they will therefore concede. This may be exactly backward. The media rights reset after the 2028 season cuts toward owner patience rather than urgency. A cost-certain, capped league is an easier product to sell to rights buyers. An owner can construct a defensible argument that absorbing damage in 2027 to enter the 2028 negotiations with a cap already in hand is a positive trade. That arithmetic is the most alarming thing about this dispute.

Some would suggest fans should refuse to take sides, since this is billionaires arguing with millionaires. Understandable, and it obscures a useful distinction. Neither proposal lowers a ticket price, a parking fee, or a streaming subscription. On the consumer side, fans lose regardless. The only way fans gain anything is through structural changes that make following the sport better, and those changes are available in this negotiation.

Leverage, and the calendar that actually matters

The time asymmetry matters more than the war chests. A December 1 lockout costs owners almost nothing, because no games are scheduled, and costs players nothing directly, because no paychecks are due. December through February is theater. The first real financial pressure arrives when spring training reporting dates pass in mid-February. The operative deadline is mid-to-late March. In 2022, the sides settled on March 10 after a 99-day lockout and played a full 162 with doubleheaders.

Owners hold: fan polling that favors a cap, a reported $2 billion fund to absorb a stoppage, the 2028 media reset and potential expansion fees as future sweeteners, and an ownership group Manfred has publicly described as the most unified he has seen.

Players hold: a licensing-funded lockout fund, an institutional memory of winning in 1995, and an executive board that has closed ranks behind Meyer despite his interim title.

The union’s vulnerability is not leadership. Meyer led the 2020 agreement, the 2022 agreement, and the 2023 minor league deal, and players surveyed anonymously by ESPN described the new leadership group in consistently positive terms. The vulnerability is arithmetic. That same survey broke roughly 16 players in firm opposition to a cap against five who were open to further discussion. Solid, not unanimous. MLB’s June 25 package was built precisely for that seam: real gains for young players and for 30-year-old free agents, with the cost falling on the top of the market. If unity fractures, it fractures in March, and it fractures among pre-arbitration players who have never missed a paycheck.

The owners’ vulnerability is the nuclear option. Declaring impasse and unilaterally implementing new terms is what converted 1994 into a canceled World Series and an NLRB injunction. The 1998 Curt Flood Act preserved player antitrust claims against MLB on labor matters, meaning a decertification threat carries weight it did not carry three decades ago. Any move toward implementation turns a lockout into a two-year war.

What a sensible deal looks like

There is an agreement available that delivers most of what fans say they want without a hard cap.

Centralize and equally share local media revenue, decoupled from the cap fight. Both sides have already proposed versions of it. It is the real parity fix and it should not be held hostage.

Install a hard, enforceable floor in the $165 to $175 million range, funded by the above, with penalties that actually bite: forfeited revenue-sharing receipts, lost draft picks, lost international bonus pool money. The union’s competitive integrity tax is directionally correct and far too weak.

Replace the ceiling with a punitive top tax tier. A base near $290 to $300 million with escalating rates that become close to confiscatory above roughly $350 million functions as a soft cap without touching guaranteed contracts. This is the only face-saving landing zone visible from here.

Leave guarantees alone. No escrow, no maximum contract lengths. These are where the union will genuinely choose a lost season over a concession.

Front-load gains where most players live. A minimum above $1.2 million, arbitration eligibility at two years, a pre-arbitration bonus pool well north of $100 million, plus the free agency and qualifying offer changes already agreed. Roughly seventy percent of major leaguers never sign a nine-figure contract. This is where solidarity is purchased.

Take the international draft, drop the high school ban. The international signing system has real and long-documented corruption problems, and a draft is overdue. Barring domestic players under 20 is a transparent mechanism for delaying debuts, suppressing the age at which stars reach free agency, and shifting development costs onto college programs. The union will read it that way because that is what it is.

Put expansion on the table. Two franchises at $2 billion or more apiece, two additional floor-level payrolls, and the realignment fans have wanted for years. Nobody has formally raised it. Whoever does is signaling they want to close.

Expected outcomes

Reasonable probabilities as of mid-September 2026:

The single most likely path: a lockout running from December through somewhere between mid-March and mid-April 2027, resolved without a hard cap but with centralized local television, a genuine spending floor, a steeper top tax tier, and meaningful gains for young players. A compressed spring training, a delayed opener, a schedule of 150 to 158 games padded with doubleheaders. Something close to 2022 with more scar tissue and a worse aftertaste.

Losing the whole season remains unlikely but is no longer unthinkable. The 2004-05 NHL precedent exists, the owners have the fund to sustain it, and the 2028 media reset gives them a reason to be patient that the players do not have.

Seven things to watch

1. Does MLB ever de-link a concession from the cap? One unconditional offer means the cap is a bargaining chip. Zero by February means it is not.
2. Does the local-TV centralization offer survive if the cap falls away? This reveals whether large-market owners were ever genuinely bought in.
3. Does the union counter with any ceiling mechanism at all? Even a punitive super-tax tier would mark the landing zone.
4. Player unity in late February, when checks stop. Watch for a public break from a mid-tier veteran rather than a star.
5. Any movement toward declaring impasse and implementing terms. That is the 1994 trigger, and it invalidates every projection above.
6. Decertification talk from the union. Post-Flood Act it is a live weapon, and the threat alone moves owners.
7. Expansion entering the conversation. That is what the endgame looks like.

The honest summary for anyone who simply wants baseball in April: neither proposal lowers what you pay. Neither side is negotiating on your behalf. The version of this fight where you get more competitive balance without losing a season runs through centralized local television and a hard spending floor, and both sides have already endorsed both ideas.

Whether they are willing to detach those from the thing they cannot agree on is the entire ballgame.

The post Baseball’s Coming Winter: What the MLB Labor Fight Is Actually About appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

How did these teams get here?

How do these teams compare?

Let’s take a look.

The Yankees won the AL East, finishing 94-68.
The Dodgers won the NL West, finishing 98-64.

New York was 3rd overall in runs scored with 815.
LA was 2nd overall in runs scored with 842.

The Yankees were 3rd in on-base %, and 4th in slugging %.
The Dodgers were 2nd in on-base %, and 1st in slugging %.

New York was 7th in era, while LA was 13th.

New York was 44-37 at home, and 50-31 on the road.
LA was 52-29 at home, and 46-35 on the road.

The Yankees were 58-40 before the All-Star game, and 36-28 after.
The Dodgers were 56-41 before the All-Star game, and 42-23 after.

New York was 8-8 in Extra Inning games, 19-18 in 1 run games.
LA was 9-7 in Extra Inning games, 21-17 in 1 run games.

The Bronx Bombers were 23-23 against the National League.
The Boys in Blue were 30-16 against the American League.

The Yankees and Dodgers had a 3 game series in New York in June, with LA taking 2 of 3.

While not yet announced, Shohei Ohtani will be the NL MVP, and Aaron Judge will be the AL MVP.

This will be the 12th all-time World Series between the Yankees and Dodgers, the 5th time since the Dodgers moved to LA for the 1958 season.

The Yankees have won 27 World Championships, this is New York’s first World Series appearance since 2009.
The Dodgers have won 7 World Championships, this is LA’s fourth World Series appearance since 2017.

Since 2010, NY has won the AL East 5 times (2011, 2012, 2019, 2022, and 2024). They’ve been a Wild Card 6 times (2010, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2021).
Since 2010, LA has won the NL West 11 times (2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2024). They’ve been a Wild Card 1 time (2021).

On Opening Day, the Yankees had the 2nd highest payroll in baseball at $303M, while the Dodgers had the 3rd highest payroll at $249.8M.

In the Playoffs, the Yankees had a bye in the Wild Card round. They then beat KC 3 games to 1 in the Division Series, and Cleveland 4 games to 1 in the American League Championship Series.
In the Playoffs, the Dodgers had a bye in the Wild Card round. They then beat San Diego 3 games to 2 in the Division Series, and the NY Mets 4 games to 2 in the National League Championship Series.

ESPN’s Analytics are giving the Dodgers a 52.2% chance of winning the World Series.

Injuries?

Former Oriole Evan Phillips was not included on the Dodgers World Series roster.
They were able to get back Alex Vesia, Brusdar Graterol, and Miguel Rojas.

Tyler Glasnow was lost for the season in August with elbow soreness.
Clayton Kershaw was also lost in August with a bone spur.
Dustin May was out the entire year.

Nestor Cortes is on the Yankees World Series roster, despite not pitching since September 18th.
It looks like DJ LeMahieu was left off the WS roster.

Predictions?

ESPN’s David Schoenfield says analysis shows that it would take a Best of 75 to determine the best team in a matchup of two essentially equal teams.

Instead we will see a Best of 7, and pretend something can really be gleaned from it.

I like the Dodgers lineup and bullpen better than the Yankees.

I like the Yankees starters a bit better.

You’ve got plenty of star power in this series, not just with Ohtani and Judge; but also Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman, Gerrit Cole, Gincarlo Stanton, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, etc.

I’ll take the Dodgers in 6, with Betts being the World Series MVP.

The post Previewing The World Series – New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

After finishing the first half with a record of 58-38, they spent the second half as a .500 team, going 33-33 which included a 13-12 record in September. Of course, their September record does include a 5-1 stretch to end the year but still, it’s fair to say that fans might struggle with optimism about how they finished the year.  

So, let’s put how the Orioles finished this year into context. We’ll begin by looking at how recent teams to make the World Series finished the season before comparing them to the Orioles and then we’ll see how Baltimore’s finish to the season stacks up against everyone else who made this year’s postseason.  

2023 

Texas Rangers (winner): 90-72 overall, 38-33 second half, 15-14 in September/October
Arizona Diamondbacks: 84-78 overall, 32-39 second half, 15-13 in September/October 

You don’t need to go back very far to find a pair of teams who made the World Series without amazing finishes to the regular season.  

Both of last year’s teams had pedestrian performances across September and October, with the Rangers quite notably losing three of four against the Seattle Mariners at the end of the season to hand the division to the Houston Astros.  

Meanwhile, the D-Backs’ 15-13 record to end the year helped them survive a second half where they were seven games below .500. Their 32-39 second-half record was the fourth-worst mark in the National League, but it certainly didn’t seem to matter once they began the postseason. 

2022 

Houston Astros (winner): 106-56 overall, 47-24 second half, 22-9 in September/October
Philadelphia Phillies: 87-75 overall, 38-32 second half, 14-17 in September/October 

While 2023’s World Series featured a pair of teams who didn’t exactly finish the season on a heater, that wasn’t the case for the 2022 Astros. After an 11-10 April, Houston won at least 60 percent of their games in every other month.  

As for the Phillies, they performed better after Joe Girardi’s departure following a 22-29 start, but their improvement under Rob Thomson didn’t include a strong finish to the year. They spent September going on two separate five-game losing streaks and went 2-5 against an Atlanta Braves team they would later eliminate in the Division Series.  

2021  

Atlanta Braves (winner): 88-73 overall, 44-28 second half, 18-11 in September/October
Houston Astros: 95-67 overall, 40-31 second half, 17-13 in September/October 

The Braves were certainly an example of a team who heated up as the year progressed. After losing on June 16, Atlanta was 30-35 and eight games out of first. Following that loss, Atlanta ended the year by going 58-38, a .604 winning percentage that helped them win the NL East by 6.5 games. Their 18-11 record in September/October included a 12-2 heater to finish the season. 

Meanwhile, the 2021 Astros weren’t quite as impressive as their 2022 version, with worse records across the full season, the second half and in September/October. However, it’s not like a 40-31 second half and 17-13 record after August 31 is limping to the finish line, just a demonstration that they did better the following season.  

(2020 didn’t have a 162-game season as you might recall, so we’re skipping it.) 

2019 

Washington Nationals (winner): 93-69 overall, 46-27 second half, 17-11 in September/October
Houston Astros: 107-55 overall, 50-22 second half, 19-6 in September/October 

The Nationals quite infamously began their 2019 season 19-31, sitting 12 games below .500 after they lost on May 23. However, they flipped a switch after that loss and their record after from that point forward was 74-38. As you can guess, that 74-38 record included a 46-27 second half and a 17-11 record in September/October. 

In comparison, the 2019 Astros finished the season better than the Nationals and better than their 2022 and 2021 counterparts. They barely missed a second-half winning percentage of .700 (it was .694) and their 19-6 record in September/October was the best in the American League.  

2018 

Boston Red Sox (winner): 108-54 overall, 40-24 second half, 15-11 in September/October
Los Angeles Dodgers: 92-71 overall, 39-28 second half, 19-9 in September/October 

While the Red Sox definitely had an excellent second half, they still cooled down a bit relative to their first-half pace. They had a .694 winning percentage in the first half and their second-half winning percentage took a mild dip down to .625. Their September was also pedestrian by the standards they had set during the rest of the season, posting their only month with a winning percentage below .600. However, their underperforming in the second half and September didn’t exactly make a dent as they won the World Series in five games. 

Over in Los Angeles, the Dodgers began 2018 in a lukewarm manner, sitting at 30-31 after a loss on June 6 but ended the year going 62-40 with pretty strong records in the second half and in September/October. The Dodgers also had to play an NL West tiebreaker that year, beating the Colorado Rockies in game 163 to give them a bonus boost of momentum entering that year’s postseason. 

So, how do the Orioles stack up? 

Compared to the last ten teams to make a full-season World Series, the Orioles have the second-worst record in the second half, only sitting above last year’s D-Backs. And if they were to win the World Series, they would do so with a second-half record worse than the prior five full-season winners. 

Meanwhile, their record in September/October is slightly better, with their winning percentage ranking higher than the 2023 Rangers and 2022 Phillies. 

In addition to comparing this year’s team to previous pennant winners, it also seems useful to see how their finish to the season ranks relative to everyone else in this year’s postseason. (I’m including the Braves, D-Backs and Mets due to when this will be published even though one of them won’t make it.) 

The Orioles don’t look particularly impressive here either, but if you’re a big believer in momentum then they might’ve gotten pretty lucky to avoid the Detroit Tigers in the Wild Card round.  

The Tigers own the AL’s best record for both the second half and September while the Kansas City Royals had the tenth-best second-half record among possible playoff teams and will be the only team to enter the playoffs with a losing September. 

The post Taking A Closer Look At Momentum Entering The Playoffs appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Who should the O’s be targeting in trades?

What are the questions facing O’s GM Mike Elias?

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The post The Warehouse – Bradish To Begin ’24 On IL; NL East Overview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

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Most Uncertainty

That would be this season. And it’s a season unlike one we’ve seen in a while. At least from this vantage point, meaning my couch in March, this season doesn’t project to have any huge mammoth 100-win teams. Sure, one could emerge, that’s always possible, but to look at the rosters, just about every team has more weaknesses than we’ve seen from potential division and league leaders. And that’s not a bad thing! Parity isn’t always desirable but after four 100-win teams last year (plus a 99-win Yankees team) and three the season before, the fact FanGraphs doesn’t project any team to win more than 93 games this season gives every game that much more significance. And combined with the new expanded playoffs, there’s all of a sudden some extra space for some teams that haven’t made noise recently to surprise. 

Best off-season move

It’s hard to say signing a player through their age-39 season is the best signing of the off-season, but I guess that’s what I’m saying. *sigh* In the end, while any specific deal is about the money first and foremost, Aaron Judge re-signing with the Yankees really isn’t about that. It was about the Yankees keeping their best player (and by far!) In New York through the rest of his potentially Hall of Fame career. Sure, these deals often end badly, but if Judge is DHing when 2031 rolls around, that’ll be fine. And, let’s be honest, it’s not like the Yankees were doing anything better with that $40 million each year. New York is supposed to win the World Series every year, so from that standpoint, they really couldn’t afford not to keep Judge.

Worst off-season move

There’s a few that don’t seem likely to age well, and Xander Bogaerts to San Diego isn’t necessarily one of those, but it’s just a bizarre move nonetheless. First of all, there are a number of indicators that Bogaerts six-win 2022 season wasn’t a sustainable one, and in fact many of Bogaerts batted ball and defensive metrics are going the wrong way and have been doing so for a few years. But what makes this so strange is that the Padres already have two other starting-quality shortstops on their roster! And one of those, Fernando Tatis, Jr, is going to make more than Bogaerts! In order to pay Bogaerts $281 million through is age-40 season, the Padres are moving shortstop Tatis to right field, shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to second base, and second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first base. It’s a strange use of resources. On one hand, you have to admire the ‘get every good player’ approach, but also, was this the best or even close to the best use of $281 million? I have a feeling this one is going to look bad pretty quickly.

Most “What-are-they-doing?” signing

The Chicago White Sox are planning to play baseball this year, presumably. I know this because they signed outfielder Andrew Benintendi to a five year, $75 million contract. The deal itself is fine (great if you’re Benintendi!), but it’s a lot of money to spend on a player who doesn’t really offer a lot. He’s a slightly above average hitter, but he’s not fast, he’s got a weak arm, and he doesn’t really hit the ball hard. Yes, the sum of his parts add up to a slightly above average player right now, but will they in five years? Will they in two years? The upside here is pretty low and the downside is pretty high, at least for a team that doesn’t spend much. If the White Sox had $75 million burning a hole in their pocket, I can think of a few better ways to spend it. 

Most exciting rookie

This is an Orioles site, so Gunnar Henderson is who you should expect here. And I’m very excited to see Henderson, but I’m not quite as excited to see Henderson as I am to see Corbin Carroll of the Diamondbacks. With 32 games of MLB experience under his belt, Arizona signed Carroll to an eight year deal with two options on top of that. Why? Carroll can do it all. He’s fast, he can play center field, he can hit for average, and for power. That’s the whole package and I’m excited to see how his first full season goes. 

Biggest Fall in the Standings

This one is kinda easy. The Dodgers won 111 games last season and there’s no way this team is going to approach that number again. In fact, I don’t expect them to win 95 in 2023, but even if they do, that’ll be a drop of 16 games! If they only win 87 like FanGraphs projects, that’s a drop off of 24 games. Which is a lot. Don’t get me wrong, the Dodgers are a good team and still a threat in the National League, but show me someone who looks at their roster and sees a 100 win team and I’ll show you someone who’s had too many Dodger dogs. 

Biggest Rise in the Standings

There’s a few candidates here, but the one that stands out most to me is the Rangers. Admittedly that’s partly because they won just 68 games last season, so there’s some room to go up. But also because if you look at their roster, it’s not that bad. It’s not good! But it’s not bad either. Adding Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi should give them some above average innings, and the return of prospect Josh Jung from injury combines with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to give them some pretty good hitters at the front of their lineup. Yes, the back of the lineup isn’t awe-inspiring but we’re not projecting them to win the division, just to win a chunk more games than 68. 

Most Under-the-Radar team

It’s hard to say the Orioles on an Orioles site, that seems too on the nose, so I’ll say the Red Sox. Boston lost Xander Bogaerts and replaced him with… their center fielder? They’re going to use a career backup catcher as their starter and a career minor league catcher as their backup. Everyone in their projected starting rotation is A), coming off of a major injury or, B) is Corey Kluber. Their biggest off-season move was not trading Rafael Devers. And yet, I kinda like this team. Bizarrely there is upside. Devers was fantastic last season until an injury ruined his numbers in July. Triston Casas’ combination of power and patience from first base is exactly what this lineup needs, and in fact they’ll get more of that from WBC star Masataka Yoshida in left field. Nobody is picking the Red Sox to do anything in ’23, but maybe they should be. Maybe.

Biggest Bust Potential

The Blue Jays might win the World Series. That’s entirely on the table as far as possibilities go. But, there is a universe, and it’s not necessarily even that remote of a universe, where they miss the playoffs again. The Jays spent their off-season remaking their outfield, removing good hitters (Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel), and replacing them with good fielders (Kevin Kiermaier, Daulton Varsho). Thing about that is neither Varsho or Kiermaier are good hitters. But the biggest bust potential, to me, lies in their rotation. Kevin Gausman is my Cy Young pick, but Yosei Kikuchi and Jose Berrios were both awful last season and both are being depended on to hold down a spot again. If Alek Manoah takes a step back (entirely possible based on his stats last season) or Chris Bassitt’s particular brand of old-pitcher trickery doesn’t work, the team could be in a world of trouble.

MVP

It’s hard to pick against Shohei Ohtani, but I’m going to do that and say the AL MVP will be Mike Trout. Last year Trout had a six-win season in just 119 games. That projects to be a 7.5 win season over 150 games, which would have put Trout third baseball in WAR behind only Aaron Judge and Ohtani. I don’t see Judge pulling a 2022 again, so it’s down to Mike vs. Shohei in the AL, and right now I’ll take Mike.

In the NL, I’m going to guess Mookie Betts. Mookie’s had a fantastic few seasons in Los Angeles but he hasn’t really gone off since his 10.5 win season in 2018 with Boston. It says here he’ll do that again. 

World Series

Give me the Braves over the Mariners in six games, and definitely when October ends, feel free to throw what will then be an extremely silly prediction in my face. Thanks for reading.

The post 2023 Baseball Superlatives! appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

This week’s release is Topps Series 1, the first set of 2023 cards and the flagship release before the various spin-offs from the leading and licensed baseball card producer start to hit shelves. Series 1 will have 330 base cards including stars, rookies (some of which should be of particular interest to Orioles fans), team cards, and other inserts. There are 17 different parallels of various rarity for the base set. The main insert in this year’s release is a throwback to the 1988 design for the 35anniversary. This year’s inserts include ‘Future Stars’, ‘League Leaders’, ‘2022 Greatest Hits’, ‘All Aces’, ‘One-Two Punch’, ‘Welcome to the Club’, ‘AKA’, and ‘Heavy Lumber’. Each of these have parallels and autographed versions. There are also sketch cards which are original art on a card back and ‘Home Run Challenge’ cards which allow you to predict when the player on the card hits a homerun. If you’re correct you get a special version of the card in return.

Its an exciting set for Orioles fans with two of the biggest rookies in the entire sport showing up for Baltimore as well as just a deeper roster of base cards worth owning. Lets break those down.

Adley Rutschman – Base RC, 1988 Topps Baseball/Auto/Relic/Silver Pack, 2022 Greatest Hits/Auto, Baseball Stars Auto, Clear, Major League Material/Auto, Home Run Challenge, Patchwork of the Past/Auto, Stars of MLB/Auto, Team Logo/Auto, Topps Reverence Patch Auto

Maybe the crown jewel of the entire set, baseball fans have been waiting for a chance to collect Adley rookie cards since it was announced that he wouldn’t be included in Topps Update Series which was released in late October of 2022. He made his major league debut too late for Series 2 but there was a question of whether or not they would hold him for 2023 since they already had headliners in Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr. and in fact they did. While it is a little odd for the guy who played played in 113 games and finished runner up in the rookie of the year voting to not get his rookie card until the following year, they’re making up for it by featuring him in pretty much every insert imaginable. Hopefully he didn’t develop carpel tunnel syndrome signing all these cards since the Orioles are going to need him if they’re going to make a run at the playoffs in 2023.

Gunnar Henderson – Base RC, 1988 Topps Baseball Auto, 2022 Greatest Hits/Auto, Baseball Stars Auto, Clear

I thought for sure with Adley being in Series 1 that Topps would keep Gunnar as a headliner for Series 2 so I was pleasantly surprised to hear he would also be getting his rookie card in this set. As someone who enjoys participating in box breaks for Orioles cards my wallet wasn’t a fan of the decision but it shows how confident they are that they’ll be able to fill out Series 2 with other worthwhile Orioles. I would assume Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall will get their rookie cards in the next set as well as guys like Felix Bautista, Ramon Urias, Austin Hays, Cole Irvin, Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, etc. Henderson himself should be involved in more of the inserts and have more autograph cards available in Series 2 but it is exciting to see the next homegrown stars of the Orioles making their rookie card debuts in the same set. It makes sense since they were both selected by the Orioles in the 2019 draft.

Kyle Stowers – Base RC, 1988 Topps Baseball Silver Pack/Auto, Clear

Speaking of that 2019 draft, might as well make it a trifecta as Stowers gets his rookie card in the same set as Rutschman and Henderson giving the Orioles top three picks each a chance to shine in Series 1. The outfielder won’t get near the attention nationally as Adley and Gunnar (for good reason) but that doesn’t mean he isn’t another great card for Orioles fans to collect. He was a top 10 prospect in the system until he graduated late in the 2022 season due to days on the active roster. He has the potential to be a mainstay in an improving Orioles lineup for the next handful of years. He didn’t get the playing time fans might’ve expected once he hit the majors which makes him a bit of a forgotten man but his first homerun was incredibly memorable and there should be plenty of those left to come.

Cedric Mullins – Base, Major League Material, Welcome to the Club/Auto

Now a veteran for the Orioles and these card sets, Mullins gets a spotlight in the new ‘Welcome to the Club’ insert set thanks to his 30 homerun, 30 stolen base season in 2021. He didn’t fair as well in 2022 but between his stellar defense in center field, 16 homeruns, and 34 stolen bases was still a 3.5 win player. The now 28 year old will try to bounce back in 2023 as he tries to stave off the wave of outfield prospects rising through the Orioles’ minor leagues.

Ryan Mountcastle – Base, 1988 Topps Baseball Auto/Relic, Clear, Major League Material, Topps Reverence Patch Auto

Mountcastle was a big rookie for collectors during the 2021 baseball card release schedule and you can see that even now with the fact that he is included in some of the more rare inserts and always seems to have an autograph or two in most sets since he graduated rookie status. 2023 could be the last time he is given that much respect by Topps unless he can rebound from a 2022 season that saw him underperform expectations and his expected stats.

Terrin Vavra – 1988 Topps Baseball Auto/Silver Pack/Auto, Baseball Stars Auto

I wasn’t too surprised that Vavra wasn’t also given his base rookie card in this set given the big three above but being included as a rookie in insert sets is a surefire sign that he will get it in Series 2. His playing time for the 2023 Orioles may be in question but his place in the 2023 Topps flagship baseball card set can no longer said to be.

DL Hall – 1988 Topps Baseball Silver Pack/Auto

Much like Vavra above, this all but confirms that Hall will get his base rookie card in Topps Series 2. Unlike Vavra he has a ton of upside that makes me think his silver pack autograph is a good chase card since he could start the 2023 season back in the minor leagues but his upside is that of a top of the rotation starter. Now, pitchers aren’t typically as valuable as hitters on the card market but there is a small percent chance that Hall ends up as one of the few that buck that trend and not everyone can say that.

Kyle Bradish – Base

Bradish had his rookie card come out in the 2022 Topps Update Series set just a few months ago and gets another flagship card right behind it. That momentum coincides with the second half he had last season. After returning from the injured list on July 29th he had a 3.28 ERA over 71.1 innings with 65 strikeouts including a two hitter over 8.2 innings against the world series winning Astros on September 22nd. He will look to carry that over into 2023 and carve out a permanent spot in the Orioles rotation.

Dean Kremer – Base

The last man standing from the Manny Machado trade with the Dodgers at the trade deadline in 2018, Kremer had a really strong sophomore season after being a big disappointment in 2021. He lowered his ERA from 7.55 over 53.2 major league innings to 3.23 over 125.1 innings and has a chance to be the opening day starter for the Orioles in 2023. The ceiling for him isn’t as high as it is for Bradish or Hall but the floor may be after making real improvements over the past year or so.

Anthony Santander – Base

Over the past few years I kept thinking the Orioles should and would trade Santander. He seemed like a league average bat that doesn’t provide much defensive value in the outfield. Power but no plate discipline. Fast forward to the second half of 2022 and I was glad they never did. The power is still there but Santander seemed to really take to the Orioles new hitting coaches and increased his walk rate to slightly above average. As long as he can transition to a first base/DH type I think his bat could be really beneficial to the next couple years of Orioles lineups.

Jorge Mateo – Base

Do you like gold glove caliber defense at shortstop? Blazing speed that results in triples (7), stolen bases (35), and exciting baserunning in general then Mateo is the guy for you. He can’t hit the ball consistently, doesn’t walk enough, and strikes out too much but other than that he’s great. The tools standout but he is running out of time to put it all together with the flurry of infield prospects on the doorstep in Baltimore.

Tyler Wells – Base

Wells is an interesting case. After being selected in the rule 5 draft prior to the 2021 season coming off of Tommy John Surgery he was used out of the bullpen and performed so well that he was eventually used as the closer, saving four games and working to a 4.11 ERA. He was stretched out into a starter last spring and performed well (4.25 ERA over 103.2 innings) but missed some time due to a shoulder issue. Its unclear what role he will be used in during the 2023, maybe a little bit of both, but either way he should have a clear spot on the roster.

Jordan Lyles – Base

The least valuable card for Orioles out of this set has to be the guy who no longer plays for the team after a one season stop in Baltimore. Lyles performed admirably for a team with low expectations coming into the season and served as a veteran leader for the pitching staff. Now with the Kansas City Royals, at least his inclusion here isn’t as perplexing as Pat Valaika in 2022 Series 2…

Also, if you’re into the classic Orioles there are a spattering of Cal Ripken, Eddie Murray, and Jim Palmer in the set as well. These guys plus Brooks Robinson, who makes a sole appearance as a dual autograph with Cal in this set, can typically be found in any set for the Orioles. Ripken leads the pack, they know what they’re doing over there at Topps.

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