Baseball will crown a first-time champion. The Milwaukee Brewers, who haven’t been to the World Series since 1982, swept the two-time defending champion Dodgers in the NLCS. The Tampa Bay Rays, in their third Fall Classic and still chasing their first title, came back from a 2-1 deficit to beat Cleveland in six games. Game 1 is Friday, Oct. 23rd, at American Family Field.
It is also the matchup our playoff preview pointed toward. Both teams earned byes with bottom-half payrolls, top-four farm systems and run prevention that ranked among the best in the field. And Birdland has a rooting interest on both sides: DL Hall pitches out of Milwaukee’s bullpen, while Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells, Jorge Mateo, and Cedric Mullins are with Tampa Bay.
How they got here
Rays: 7-2 this postseason. Tampa Bay swept the Yankees in the Division Series, allowing just 12 hits in three games, and Bryan Baker saved all three. Victor Mesa Jr.’s two-run homer in Game 3 at Yankee Stadium sent them on. The ALCS was harder. Cleveland won Game 1 7-3 and Game 3 3-2 at Progressive Field, and the Rays’ bats were quiet through three games. Then Tampa Bay won both remaining games in Cleveland and closed it out 7-3 at the Trop on Monday. Freddy Peralta won two games and was named ALCS MVP, and Junior Caminero’s first career postseason homer, a two-run shot off the foul pole against Cade Smith, broke Game 6 open (Yahoo Sports).
Brewers: 7-1 this postseason. Milwaukee beat San Diego in four Division Series games. Jackson Chourio became the franchise’s career leader in postseason RBIs at 22, and Garrett Mitchell robbed Manny Machado of a tying homer in the eighth inning of the clincher. Then came the rematch with the Dodgers, who had swept the Brewers in last year’s NLCS. Milwaukee returned the favor, rallying from 4-0 down in Game 4 to win 6-4 at Dodger Stadium. It was the first time the Dodgers had been swept in a best-of-seven since the 1966 World Series against the Orioles. Jake Bauers drove in six runs and was named NLCS MVP (FOX6).
How our bracket held up
| Round | Our pick | What happened | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| AL Wild Card | Yankees over Red Sox in 3 | Yankees in 2 | Right team |
| AL Wild Card | White Sox over Astros in 3 (upset) | White Sox in 2 | Right team |
| NL Wild Card | Padres over Cubs in 3 | Padres in 2 | Right team |
| NL Wild Card | Braves over Phillies in 3 | Braves in 3 | Exact |
| ALDS | Yankees over Rays in 5 | Rays in 3 | Wrong |
| ALDS | Guardians over White Sox in 4 | Guardians in 5 | Right team |
| NLDS | Brewers over Padres in 5 | Brewers in 4 | Right team |
| NLDS | Dodgers over Braves in 4 | Dodgers in 4 | Exact |
| ALCS | Yankees over Guardians in 5 | Rays over Guardians in 6 | Wrong |
| NLCS | Brewers over Dodgers in 7 | Brewers in 4 | Right team |
| World Series | Brewers over Yankees in 6 | Brewers vs. Rays | Still alive |
That’s eight of 10 series winners, including all four Wild Card Series and the White Sox upset. The miss was the AL: we trusted the Yankees’ rotation over the Rays, and Tampa Bay swept them. Our champion is still standing.
Why these two
Three weeks ago we wrote that October can’t be bought, at least not the easy way. This World Series is the proof. Tampa Bay opened the season with a $90 million payroll and Milwaukee with $125 million, according to USA Today’s Opening Day figures, both less than the Orioles’ $170 million. They eliminated the Yankees ($301 million) and the Dodgers ($322 million) along the way.
What they have instead is the formula the preview’s numbers kept pointing to:
- Run prevention. Milwaukee allowed 3.81 runs per game and Tampa Bay 4.01, both well under the 4.48 MLB average, with ERA+ marks of 120 and 115.
- Farm systems that feed the big-league roster. Across the last four MLB Pipeline rankings, the Rays’ average rank was 2.75 and the Brewers’ 10.5, two of the four best in the field. Milwaukee’s rotation is built around homegrown arms in Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson, and Tampa Bay’s lineup around Caminero.
- Contact over slug. Neither lineup hits for big power. The Brewers hit the fewest homers in MLB and the Rays slugged .402, right at league average. Both get on base, put the ball in play and run.
- The toughest schedules. Each came out of the best division in its league. The AL East went .558 against everyone else, the NL Central .538.
The preview also flagged a warning on Tampa Bay: its league-best defensive efficiency masked below-average fielding by other measures. The metrics still disagree. The Rays’ infield ranks second in MLB in defensive runs saved (+58) but 27th in outs above average (-30), largely because of Taylor Walls and Junior Caminero, who was -14 OAA in April and May and +4 since. The simplest number favors Tampa Bay: it allowed an MLB-low .213 average on ground balls. The Brewers’ infield is +36 DRS, +8 OAA and .227 on grounders (CBS Sports).
The connections
These two front offices know each other well. Rasmussen debuted with the Brewers and was the headliner in the trade that sent Willy Adames to Milwaukee. Peralta pitched eight seasons for Milwaukee. NLCS MVP Jake Bauers began his career as a Rays prospect, and Brewers president of baseball operations Matt Arnold spent nine seasons in Tampa Bay’s front office (MLB.com). Even the managers fit the theme: Kevin Cash is the longest-tenured manager in baseball and led the Rays to the 2020 World Series, while Pat Murphy has won Manager of the Year in both of his full seasons and has already outmaneuvered Craig Stammen and Dave Roberts this month.
Tale of the tape
| Brewers | Rays | |
|---|---|---|
| Regular season | 103-59 (NL No. 1) | 98-64 (AL No. 1) |
| Postseason | 7-1 | 7-2 |
| Run differential per game | +1.33 | +0.53 |
| Schedule-adjusted | +1.29 | +0.52 |
| Runs scored | 832 | 736 |
| OBP / SLG | .341 / .403 | .326 / .402 |
| OPS+ (park- and league-adjusted) | 105 | 103 |
| Postseason home runs | 10 in 8 games | 6 in 9 games |
| Team ERA / FIP | 3.51 / 3.72 | 3.70 / 4.04 |
| ERA+ | 120 | 115 |
| Defensive efficiency | .712 | .724 |
| Infield DRS / OAA | +36 / +8 | +58 / -30 |
| Stolen bases (success rate) | 162 (75%) | 164 (75%) |
| Stolen bases allowed (caught-stealing rate) | 71 (30%) | 131 (21%) |
| Opening Day payroll | $125 million | $90 million |
| Average farm rank, 2023-26 | 10.5 | 2.75 |
| 2026 head-to-head | Brewers 2-1 |
On paper, Milwaukee has the edge almost everywhere that counts. It scored nearly 100 more runs, allowed fewer, and its run differential per game was more than twice Tampa Bay’s, even after adjusting for schedule. The NL also won the interleague series 381-334 this year, which suggests the Brewers’ numbers came against tougher competition. The biggest single gap may be on the bases: both teams run equally well, but the Brewers allowed 60 fewer steals, and runners succeeded 85% of the time against Rays catcher Liam Hicks. Tampa Bay’s counters are a deeper farm system, the best ground-ball defense in baseball and a rotation that has been the best of the postseason (Baseball-Reference, CBS Sports).
Tampa Bay Rays
The rotation has been the best of the postseason. Drew Rasmussen leads all playoff pitchers with 21 innings and a 1.29 ERA, starting with eight scoreless, 10-strikeout innings against the Yankees in which he carried a no-hitter into the eighth (ESPN). After pitching Game 5 of the ALCS, he lines up for Game 2, which likely puts All-Star Nick Martinez (3.10 ERA in 180 innings) opposite Misiorowski in Game 1 and ALCS MVP Freddy Peralta in Game 3 at the Trop. Peralta is the series’ best storyline: he spent eight seasons in Milwaukee (70-42, 3.59 ERA), was traded to the Mets last winter, struggled there, and was flipped to Tampa Bay at the deadline. He has allowed two runs in 16⅔ postseason innings, according to Yahoo Sports. Shane McClanahan (forearm) is out for the year.
The staff also has a trick no one else is using. The Rays throw more offspeed pitches than any team (21.8%) and throw them to same-handed hitters at 28.6%, against a league average of about 11%, holding hitters to a .211 wOBA on those pitches (DRaysBay).
The bullpen is thinner than it looks. Closer Bryan Baker is 5-for-5 in saves with seven scoreless innings, but his fastball has dropped from 96.3 mph in the regular season to 93.4 in the ALCS (CBS Sports). The bridge to him has been shaky: Ian Seymour walked in a run and hit a batter with the bases loaded in Game 6. Cam Booser, Kevin Kelly and ex-Oriole Tyler Wells, who struck out the side in ALCS Game 3, are the setup men, and hard-throwing rookie Brody Hopkins is an unused wild card.
The lineup wins with pressure, not power. Tampa Bay has hit only six homers this postseason. It struck out less than any team during the season, led MLB in bunt hits (49) and sacrifice bunts (45), and Chandler Simpson led baseball with 42 infield hits. Yandy Díaz has more hits than anyone this October and added a two-run homer in the clincher. Richie Palacios is 8-for-22. Caminero, though, is hitting .233/.303/.333 with one homer, even if he has hit several balls 110 mph or harder.
The concern: Velocity. The Rays had the second-lowest OPS in MLB on fastballs of 98 mph or harder, and Milwaukee’s average fastball this postseason is 98.3 mph. Jonathan Aranda hit .091 against those pitches during the season. Add the preview’s finding that Tampa Bay was one of the six weakest lineups against lefties, and Aaron Ashby and DL Hall look like problems.
Milwaukee Brewers
The ace is the question. Jacob Misiorowski finished the regular season atop the leaderboards in ERA (1.80), WHIP (0.80) and strikeouts (252), but he hasn’t lasted five innings in either postseason start. His swinging-strike rate has fallen from 19.1% to 11.5%, his spin rate is down, and he has thrown 183 innings in his first full big-league season (ESPN). He’ll have 11 days off before Game 1, which may help. Logan Henderson, whom Milwaukee refused to trade in the Skubal talks, follows him, then Robert Gasser, who was sharp in NLCS Game 3. Game 4 projects as a bullpen game. Brandon Woodruff, out since July 4 with a shoulder injury, has thrown a high-intensity bullpen session and could be added to the roster (Brew Crew Ball).
The bullpen has carried them. Every one of Milwaukee’s seven postseason wins has been credited to a reliever. Since the LCS began in 1969, no team has reached the World Series without a starter getting a win. The top four of Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby and ex-Oriole DL Hall have a 0.61 ERA in 29⅔ innings. Ashby has been historic: 12⅓ scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts, including the final three innings of the pennant clincher (Brew Crew Ball).
The lineup grinds, and now it slugs. The Brewers had the lowest chase rate in baseball, drew the second-most walks and hit .276 with runners in scoring position, best in the majors. After tying for the second-fewest homers in the regular season, they have hit 10 in eight playoff games (MLB.com). William Contreras has three of them and a 1.157 OPS, best of any LCS hitter. Bauers was the NLCS MVP after a 12-pitch walk against Yoshinobu Yamamoto and an 11th-pitch homer off Blake Snell. Brice Turang broke out against the Dodgers, and Garrett Mitchell has been the October surprise. Jackson Chourio has delivered big hits but is batting .171.
The concern: Innings. If Misiorowski and Henderson can’t get 15 outs apiece, the bullpen will again carry most of the load. Milwaukee has already won six games it trailed, a record for the first eight games of a postseason, but even the best bullpens wear down. Uribe struggled in his last NLCS outing after pitching in each of the first seven games.
Keys to the series
- Strike-throwers vs. the most patient lineup in baseball. The Rays had the lowest walk rate in MLB and the second-highest first-pitch strike rate, and the Brewers had the lowest chase rate and swung less than any team. Whichever side bends first in long counts likely wins the close games.
- High-leverage moments. During the season, the Rays were baseball’s best high-leverage pitching staff, and the Brewers were the best high-leverage hitting team (ESPN). With postseason teams averaging just 3.5 runs a game, those are the at-bats that will decide it.
- The bridge to Baker. Milwaukee’s bullpen is deeper. If the Brewers can reach Tampa Bay’s middle relief, or Baker’s fading fastball, they have the edge late.
- Small ball and the running game. These were the two best bunting and infield-hit teams in baseball. Milwaukee’s young infield, especially rookie shortstop Cooper Pratt, will be tested, while the Brewers should run freely on Rays catchers.
- The middle games at the Trop. Games 3, 4 and 5 are in St. Petersburg, where the Rays went 55-26. Tampa Bay needs to leave Milwaukee with at least one win to make that count, likely with Martinez or Rasmussen.
Schedule, TV and odds
Milwaukee has home-field advantage after finishing with the best record in baseball. Every game starts at 8 p.m. ET on FOX and streams on FOX ONE (MLB.com).
| Game | Date | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Friday, Oct. 23 | American Family Field, Milwaukee |
| 2 | Saturday, Oct. 24 | American Family Field, Milwaukee |
| 3 | Monday, Oct. 26 | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg |
| 4 | Tuesday, Oct. 27 | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg |
| 5* | Wednesday, Oct. 28 | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg |
| 6* | Friday, Oct. 30 | American Family Field, Milwaukee |
| 7* | Saturday, Oct. 31 | American Family Field, Milwaukee |
*If necessary
The books and the models like Milwaukee. FanDuel has the Brewers at -172 to win the series and the Rays at +148, which works out to roughly a 63% to 40% split before the sportsbook’s margin. ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle, whose 10,000-simulation model we cited in the playoff preview, is a little closer at 59% to 41% (ESPN). Four of CBS Sports’ five experts picked Milwaukee, two in six games and two in seven, with Kate Feldman taking the Rays in seven (CBS Sports).
| FanDuel market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Series winner | Brewers -172, Rays +148 |
| Game 1 moneyline | Brewers -158, Rays +134 |
| Game 1 total | 6.5 runs (under -130) |
| Series ends in 4 games | +540 |
| Series ends in 5 games | +260 |
| Series ends in 6 games | +205 |
| Series ends in 7 games | +225 |
The MVP board leans Milwaukee too. William Contreras (+600) and Jackson Chourio (+650) are the favorites, followed by Junior Caminero (+850), Yandy Díaz and Brice Turang (+950 each), and Jacob Misiorowski and Jake Bauers (+1000). Freddy Peralta, the ALCS MVP, is a long shot at +3000, and Aaron Ashby, despite his historic run, is +4500 (FanDuel). For perspective, both teams were long shots last winter, when DraftKings opened the Brewers at +2000 and the Rays at +5000 (CBS Sports). Odds are as of Oct. 20 and will move.
Our pick: Brewers in 6
We picked Milwaukee to win it all on Sept. 28th, and nothing since has changed our mind. The Brewers have the better run differential, home field, a lineup that has found its power, and a bullpen that just shut down the Dodgers for four straight games. They came out of the stronger league and the deeper division, and the schedule adjustment barely dented their numbers.
The case for Tampa Bay is real, and it starts where Milwaukee is weakest. The Rays’ rotation has been the best of the postseason, while Misiorowski and Henderson have yet to work deep into games. Peralta and Rasmussen both know this Brewers organization from the inside, and three games at the Trop give Tampa Bay a genuine edge in the middle of the series. As our preview’s series math showed, even a team that wins 60% of its games against an opponent takes a best-of-seven only about 71% of the time, and this one is closer than that.
So: Brewers in 6. Milwaukee wins Games 1 and 2 at home, the Rays take two of three at the Trop with Peralta leading the way, and the Brewers’ bullpen closes it out back at American Family Field. One way or the other, a franchise gets its first title, and the two cheapest roads to October end in the same place.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.