Back in 1963, Edward Pola and George Wyle wrote a song called “The Most Wonderful Time of the Year”. That year, the song was released by Andy Williams. It has since become one of the most iconic Christmas songs that is played seven million times a year between Thanksgiving and Christmas. The problem with the song is that Mr. Pola and Mr. Wyle had no idea what they were talking about. The most wonderful time of the year isn’t Christmas, it’s when the calendar turns to March and college basketball takes over the sports world for a month. The start of that is Championship week, which is currently ongoing with some of the mid major conferences having already started the early rounds of their conference tournaments. Here is a brief preview of some of the conference tournaments we will see between now and selection Sunday.
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Let’s start this article off right and just go right to the best tournament, the ACC Tournament. The ACC boasts three of the five best teams in the country. The ACC is pretty deep this year even if the bottom of the conference is pretty poor. The four teams getting the double bye are UVA, UNC, Duke and FSU. The early rounds will likely not have any surprises. While upsets can always happen, I think it’s pretty like the Top 7 seeds all advance. The 8/9 game, which is NCST vs Clemson, stands to be a game where the loser could be out of the NCAAT. That is likely the most intrigue we will have before Thursday. Once we get to the quarterfinals, you will likely have 6 or 7 teams capable of winning the tourney although it will be an upset if we don’t see one of the big 3 winning it. The most likely matchups for semifinal Friday will be UVA vs VT (I give the Hokies a slight edge over FSU) and Duke vs UNC. As I write this, those are four of the top eleven KenPom teams. They are all ranked in the Top 10 in offensive efficiency and three of them are top eleven in defensive efficiency, with VT ranked a very respectable 30th.
Virginia blew out VT at home and beat them by six on the road and I expect more of the same. UVA is just too good and while it wouldn’t be some monumental upset, I just don’t see VT being able to pull it off. Duke/UNC will be interesting. UNC just swept Duke for the time in a decade, but they did it with Zion Williamson essentially missing both games. On top of that, Duke lose Marques Bolden (sprained MCL) in the second UNC game and that made it difficult to rebound and defend the paint better, especially with Zion out. I think if Zion plays, as is the expectation, that Duke wins the game. That sets up a Duke/UVA game and I think that UVA wins. I am not sure Zion will have his legs all the way back to play three straight games and that his lack of conditioning will hurt some in that game, especially with Bolden likely out and not having another rotational guy. If I were to pick a sleeper, it would be Louisville. Louisville is 18th in the KenPom rankings. They are Top 30 in offense and Top 20 in defense. They likely play UNC in the quarters and they handed the Heels the worst home loss under Williams. After that, they likely play Duke. They had Duke beaten and were up around 20 points with under 7 min to play and gave the game away, at home. They have also played UVA tough this year and over the last few years. They have the talent and all-around team to win against the top teams. What will be interesting to me is if the ACC can ends up with three #1 seeds in the National Tournament. That likely is determined by what happens in the SEC tourney.
Speaking of the SEC Tourney, the SEC has had a good year and is a far cry from the poor conference it has been in recent years. The SEC has six of the Top 30 KenPom teams and they should get eight teams into the NCAA tournament. The SEC tournament should be very strong this year. LSU has the top seed but with their coach, Will Wade suspended and Javonte Smart being held out over the FBI tapes, we just don’t know what their mental mindset will be, even if those two are back for the tournament. Two of the best teams in the country, Kentucky and Tennessee end up with the 2 and 3 seeds respectively. They are two Top 10 KenPom teams and have beaten some of the best teams in the country outside the conference this year. The conference has good depth with Ole Miss, Miss St and Florida all being quality teams capable of pulling off at least one upset. My guess is that this is the tournament we will see a lot of upsets in. I suspect that at least two of the top four seeds will be out for the semis and I am predicting Auburn, the 5th seed, to be the team that comes out on top. They just beat Tennessee in their last game. They have won 6 of their last 7 games and get South Carolina in the quarters. The Gamecocks are 16-15 this year and 75th in KenPom. Auburn is 13th in KenPom. They will then get the embattled LSU Tigers, assuming LSU is there, in their next game. That gets them to the finals and likely either Kentucky or Tenn. I will give the edge to Kentucky if those two teams play. They split in the regular season, with each team winning at easily at home but I suspect that Kentucky is slightly better because of their defense. Kentucky beat Auburn twice in the regular season, but I think Auburn gets them if there is a third matchup. For the ACC, I think they need Kentucky to not win the tournament. If they don’t and assuming Duke and UNC win their first games, I think the ACC ends up with 3 #1 seeds. I don’t see anyone else in the discussion although I guess there could be some argument for Michigan or Michigan St.
The Big Ten Tournament also figures to be very competitive this year. The B10 has 3 Top 10 teams in KenPom and five of the Top 20. The league is led by Michigan and Michigan St but Purdue, Wisconsin and Maryland are all quality teams capable of beating anyone. I don’t expect any real surprises in this tournament. The lower seeded teams are either underachieving this year (like Indiana) or playing poorly down the stretch (Iowa for example). If I were to pick a lower seeded team that could make some noise, it would be Indiana. They have beaten Michigan St twice, Wisconsin, Louisville and Marquette. They have some guys who will play in the NBA and a good tournament coach in Archie Miller. Still, they have underachieved this year and likely will be an early exit. Maryland represents a scary team that doesn’t figure have the double bye (depending on what Wisconsin does today). They have a good formula of a good PG, elite inside play and some good shooters. They are 18th in KenPom and well balanced. But they are young and I don’t trust them against the more experienced teams they will play as the tournament progresses. They could be a very dangerous team though and if they get on a roll, they are fully capable of winning it all. I suspect Michigan St vs Michigan is what we will see and I will take Michigan St in that matchup.
For the Big 12, this has been a season of change. For the first time in 13 years, Kansas didn’t win the conference in the regular season. Kansas enters the conference tournament as the 3 seed and faces a potentially dangerous and hungry Texas team. Texas is likely on the outside looking in for the NCAAs this year but a win against Kansas could have them dancing. Texas is 27th in KenPom, so they are capable of making a run. That is a team that beat UNC earlier in the season. They are my sleeper in this conference tournament. The B12 boasts 5 teams in the KenPom Top 30, headed by Texas Tech, who is 8th. TT has the #1 defense in the country, boasts a lottery pick in Jarrett Culver and are coming off an E8 run in last year’s tournament. They enter their tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country. They have won 9 in a row and 11 of their last 12. Their OOC schedule is pretty weak, outside of a loss to Duke (a game TT outplayed Duke for the first 25-30 min) but they are a very good team that can go deep into the tournament this year. Kansas St, another team that went on an E8 run last year, is the 1 seed. They are an excellent defensive team as well but they can struggle offensively. I am going with Texas Tech vs Iowa St in the finals. Iowa St is the 5th seed and are a very dangerous offensive team. I think they score enough to beat K State but I think Texas Tech ultimately beats them in the finals.
There figures to be a lot of exciting tournaments in the other leagues as well. The Big East, which is way down this year compared to recent seasons, could have some intrigue. Villanova and Marquette will be the heavy favorites. They are the only two teams in the KenPom Top 30 and they don’t appear until after 25. This is a league where I am going out on a limb and I’m taking Seton Hall to win it all. They have wins over Kentucky, Maryland, St. Johns, Creighton twice, Marquette and Nova. They are capable of making a run in a very weak conference. Out in the Pac 12, we see a lot of terrible basketball. Perhaps if Bol Bol never gets hurt, Oregon is a big threat but without him, they have been pretty mediocre. The best team this year has been Washington, led by their defense that is Top 20 in the KenPom rankings. There are those that think the Pac 12 may only get one team. I think they have a chance at 2 but if Washington wins the conference, it very well might be a 1 bid league. They have OOC wins vs Miss St, Kansas and Utah St. I think they will do enough in their conference tournament to win the tournament and be the second team. Even if they don’t win, I think they win enough games to end up a 10 or 11 seed.
The AAC has some tough teams in it this year, led by Houston. They will send 3 and perhaps 4 teams to the big dance and they are all capable of winning multiple games in the NCAA. I will take Houston in this tournament. They are a well-balanced team that is 16th in the KenPom rankings. Cincinnati and UCF could pose problems for them but I think Houston finds a way.
We have seen our first tournament ticket punched. The Murray St Racers, led up top 3 NBA pick Ja Morant, have just defeated Belmont. There is a chance that Belmont can still get in as an at large team. I think it will depend on the larger conference teams and to make sure nothing happens in some of the mid majors where there are definite locks, whether they win their tournament or not. BTW, with Murray St likely seeded in the 7-10 range, that is not a team you want to see in the second round if you are a 1 or 2 seed. Having an elite player like Morant to go against is very dangerous for those teams. (might we see Morant vs Williamson/Barrett?)
In the other mid major conferences, we should see an easy win by Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference tournament. They have dominated out there and while they don’t really have anything to play for (they are a lock for the 1 seed out West), they should still win it with relative ease. St Mary’s and San Francisco are capable of pulling off an upset but it’s not likely. Today, we saw a big upset with Mike Daum and South Dakota being ousted by the 8th seed in the Summit League. Daum is one of the all time great scorers in college basketball history and he won’t get a chance to play in the NCAAs one more time.
The Southern Conference has a chance to get 2 teams. Wofford is easily in the big dance, whether they win the tournament or not. They are 20th in KenPom (9th in offense). They did lose all their big OOC games (except South Carolina) but they pass many of the tests you use to put them in. They went undefeated in the regular season in conference play. If some team can upset them in the tournament, this league becomes a bid stealer. In the MVC, we saw Illinois Chicago, last year’s final 4 team, go down today. So, there will be no Sister Jean or Porter Moser this year. In a conference tournament that has seen a lot of upsets, watch out for Northern Iowa to win “arch madness”. I look for VCU to use its defense to win the A10 tournament. They are a top 10 defensive team who will be tough to beat. They will likely face their toughest test against Davidson. This is another potential bid stealer conference, as VCU is likely in.
The AAC has some tough teams in it this year, led by Houston. They will send 3 and perhaps 4 teams to the big dance and they are all capable of winning multiple games in the NCAA. I will take Houston in this tournament. They are a well-balanced team that is 16th in the KenPom rankings. Cincinnati and UCF could pose problems for them but I think Houston finds a way.
There always figures to be buzzer beaters, big upsets and perhaps there is another UMBC out there, just lurking in the bushes, ready to upset one of the top seeds. It should be a fun week, so sit back and enjoy it because this is truly, the most wonderful time of the year!
Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight