The Seven (Regular Season) Games That Will Most Impact Who Makes the College Football Playoff
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Georgia vs Clemson (at Atlanta): September 4, 7:30pm ET, ABC
It is very likely that Georgia can ill-afford a loss in this game more than Clemson. With another appearance on this list, plus the SEC Championship (if they make it), the Bulldogs have a gantlet to get through to avoid two losses, the likes of which have never made the Playoff. On the plus side, they do avoid Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M during the regular season.
Clemson’s biggest hurdle, if they lose to Georgia, might be convincing the committee the rest of their schedule merits a Playoff spot. Aside from this game, they have what looks like a cakewalk to the ACC Championship Game. They miss UNC, Miami and VA Tech from the Coastal, and the Tigers may find themselves hoping whichever of those three advances is at least close enough to Top 10 to erase any doubts. But I think that’s unlikely, as Clemson has built the credibility over the years to get the benefit of a doubt.
Cincinnati at Notre Dame: October 2, 2:30pm ET, NBC
Notre Dame has a decent, but manageable schedule in 2021. They face 4 preseason Top 25 teams, but three of those (Cincinnati, USC, UNC) are at home, and the fourth (Wisconsin) is in Chicago. However, now that they have returned to independence, one loss might be enough to doom them. It would be little surprise if this game is where that happens.
Could the Bearcats be more than just spoilers in this game? Perhaps. In addition to the Irish and the AAC, they also play Indiana in Bloomington this season. If they can get through all that undefeated, who knows?
Alabama at Texas A&M: October 9
It’s no hyperbole to state that this will be the biggest game for Texas A&M in the Jimbo Fisher era, so far. Both teams will be favored to enter this game unbeaten. Interesting thing is if one does have a loss, that team might more likely be Alabama. The Tide have to face Miami and a trip to Gainesville in the first three weeks of the season. Then the week before heading to College Station they have what screams “trap game” at home versus Ole Miss. Detail-driven Nick Saban teams seldom fall into traps, of course…but still, those games will be no cakewalk.
But like I said, this game is bigger for A&M, for several reasons. Their massive investments in the program and Fisher were not just so they could finish a close runner-up to Saban and Alabama. And the denizens of Aggieland would love nothing more than to have already established their legitimacy as an SEC power by the time their in-state nemesis becomes the new kid on the block. Winning this game will open the path towards that goal.
Ohio State at Indiana: October 23
Many in Pennsylvania will probably disagree with this, but I think Indiana is the most likely challenger to Ohio State’s Big Ten East supremacy in 2021. If I’m right, it stands to reason that this is the most important matchup on the Big Ten slate. The Buckeyes’ schedule isn’t especially daunting outside of this game. Their Week 2 home game against Oregon could certainly be tough, but even a loss to the Ducks would not doom their Playoff hopes. For those who do think Penn State is their main roadblock, that matchup is at the Horseshoe. The finale at Michigan? Sorry Harbs, but you’ll be 0-6 against your rivals to the south after this season.
Three of the Hoosiers’ first five games are the aforementioned matchup against Cincinnati, and with tough road trips to Iowa and Penn State. Which is to say I could look pretty bad on this one weeks before kickoff, or at they very best be left with the Hoosiers simply being the spoiler. But I’m going with my gut that this one will matter for both squads.
Florida vs Georgia (at Jacksonville): October 30, 3:30pm ET, CBS
The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party (this is one time I will be un-PC and still refer to it as that) will almost certainly be the decisive game in who wins the SEC East. It would be no upset if both participants come into this one with a loss that will essentially have them playing for their Playoff lives.
For Florida, they have to deal with a visit from Alabama in Week 3. You already know Georgia’s biggest hurdle; Clemson in the opener. The slight edge goes to the Dawgs in that their most likely loss would be out of conference. Assuming chalk the rest of the way, they’d only have to make up half a game on the Gators. Florida hopes of playing in Atlanta on Dec 5th would be all but over if they lost to the Tide and Dawgs.
Oregon at Washington: November 6
Both teams have huge Week 2 road games in Big Ten country that, if they win, would be an enormous reputation boost to a conference badly in need of it; Oregon at Ohio State and Washington at Michigan. Oregon can overcome a loss to the Buckeyes and still maintain Playoff aspirations. Michigan’s eventual status might not afford that luxury to Washington, so it would behoove the Huskies much more to come home a winner.
No matter what the Week 2 outcomes are, this game should decide the winner of the Pac 12 North. Both teams have very favorable conference schedules ahead of this game. Neither faces USC in the regular season, they both only play one of the other Pac 12 South favorites (Arizona State and Utah), and none of their other division foes look to be ready to challenge them.
Iowa State at Oklahoma: November 20
How badly would the Cyclones love to win this one? They are no strangers to beating the Sooners, having done it twice over the past four seasons. And their losses have been close enough (10 points or less each time since 2016), that it’s safe to say the Cylcones have no fear of the Sooners, despite the latter’s all time series lead of 77-7-2. Oh, and then there’s the little matter of wanting to give Oklahoma a nice send-off, if this is indeed their last season in the Big 12.
Of course because the Big 12 does not have divisions, this could very well be just a preview of the conference championship game to be played two weeks later, and that matchup will probably be the final determinant of which, if either, team makes the Playoff. But this game certainly could eliminate one of the two from contention, and depending on how their seasons went maybe open the door for a surprise participant in the conference title game.
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.