#4 Cincinnati vs #1 Alabama
December 31, 3:30pm ET, ESPN
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Spread: Alabama -13.5
The question on everyone’s mind is whether there’s any path for Cincinnati to win this game. Funny how a narrative can flip so quickly. Had there been no Championship Week and this matchup was set after Week 13, in which Alabama needed 4 OTs to defeat a middling Auburn team starting a backup QB, I would think most people would say the Bearcats have a shot. But Alabama, perhaps playing for their Playoff lives, went out and convincingly defeated then-#1 Georgia, and all of a sudden they were the invincible Tide teams of yore. Recency bias aside, Alabama is rightfully the favorite in this game, despite the claim by LB Will Anderson to the contrary.
When Alabama has the ball, the matchup doesn’t look all that bad for the Bearcats. Alabama is by far a passing team on offense, and Cincinnati had the best defensive pass efficiency in the college football. Their secondary is led by the best corner tandem in the country in Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner and Thorpe Award winner Coby Bryant. While they will have their hands full dealing with the most explosive WR in the country, Jameson Williams, Alabama’s second best receiver, John Metchie, is out. The Tide will need someone else to step up. Keep an eye on true freshman Ja’Corey Brooks, who did not get much playing time early but came on late and made the game-saving TD catch against Auburn to send the game to OT. For Cincinnati, they can’t just rely on their corners. They MUST get pressure on QB Bryce Young with their front four. Auburn and LSU were both successful in doing that, and both nearly knocked the Tide off while holding them to 10 and 20 points in regulation, respectively. The Bearcats haven’t been great at getting that kind of pressure this season, so for them to have a shot they need their guys up front to step up.
When Cincinnati has the ball, the matchup doesn’t look as promising for them. Alabama’s vulnerability on defense is in the secondary, and the Bearcats don’t really have the personnel to exploit it. Their Expected Points Added per play passing was just .084 this season, 58th in the country. Their top receiver, Alec Pierce, is a fine player, but not known for explosive plays. They are going to have to methodically move the ball, and they absolutely must convert trips to the red zone into touchdowns. You don’t outscore Alabama kicking field goals. And QB Desmond Ridder is going to have to do that against what should be a fierce pass rush (and expect Nick Saban to have something up his sleeve to try and make Ridder very uncomfortable). As far as Cincinnati’s running game, while one-time Tide RB Jerome Ford no doubt hopes for a big day against his former team, the numbers say it’s highly unlikely. If he can do just enough to keep the defense honest, that would be considered admirable.
A lot of questions have been asked about whether or not Cincinnati belongs in this game; suggesting they are only here because the ACC, Big 12 and Pac 12 champions all had at least 2 losses. While the latter part was crucial for Cincinnati to get here, I do believe they are worthy of the #4 seed; and even if they get blown out, they will still have been worthy. We’ve seen plenty of #4 seeds get destroyed in the semifinal before, and no one questioned whether they deserved to be there or not.
Can the Bearcats avoid the blowout that will fuel their critics? I believe so. This is still the same Alabama team that we’ve been saying for weeks was not nearly as complete and dominant as their past championship teams; one great game against Georgia did not suddenly change that.
Can the Bearcats do the unthinkable and pull an upset? Nothing is impossible, but beating a Nick Saban team that has had a month to prepare feels like too tall an order here.
Alabama wins, but I think the Bearcats hang close enough to cover.
My Pick: Cincinnati +13.5
#3 Georgia vs #2 Michigan
December 31, 4:30pm ET, ESPN
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Spread: Georgia -7.5
I’ve beat the table several times this season stating that Georgia won’t win a national championship with Stetson Bennett at QB. Actually, to be more precise, I stated they won’t beat Alabama with Bennett, which they would have to do at some point to win a title. Now they’ve lost to Alabama. Once. Will they get a rematch? We’ll see. Kirby Smart has been a little more coy since the SEC Championship when it comes to the status of his QBs, only saying that Bennett and JT Daniels are always being evaluated when asked about the possibility of a change. Complicating matters, or perhaps clearing them up, was that Daniels was away from the team until just 4 days ago while being quarantined with COVID. I think we can bank on Bennett getting the start. If he and Georgia struggle? Maybe a quick hook isn’t out of the question.
Here’s the thing. Even if the Bulldogs end up going with Bennett, he will still be the best QB in this game. Michigan’s Cade McNamara has hardly been asked to win games for the Wolverines this season. He barely averages 8 yards per pass attempt, just 47th in the country (for what it’s worth, despite his shortcomings Bennett is 2nd in that category at just over 10 yards/attempt). Michigan is a running team who lean heavily on their Moore Award winning offensive line. The issue with that is it plays to the strength of Georgia’s defense. Furthermore, if Michigan’s OL has struggled in one area this season, it’s dealing with stunts and twists in their zone-heavy blocking scheme (paywalled). Georgia runs LOTS of stunts and twists. The scheme is perfect for their personnel, which features 3 of PFF’s Top 15 graded run defenders (Jalen Carter, Devonte Wyatt and Jordan Davis). Georgia should be able to take away the run game from Michigan.
So what’s Michigan’s answer? Ironically, perhaps the answer could be found in the Wolverine’s only loss of the season. Against Michigan State McNamara had by far his highest output of the season, including a 93 yard TD pass on just Michigan’s third play from scrimmage in the game. They need to find a way to hit Georgia with explosive plays when the Bulldogs are playing the run. Another way is to mix in backup J.J. McCarthy early and often. McCarthy is an elite dual-threat QB whose running ability can help open up big plays. Finally, the Wolverines are no stranger to trick/gadget plays. A halfback pass like they ran against Ohio State, with RB Donovan Edwards tossing a beautiful 75 yard TD, is exactly the sort of thing that would keep Georgia’s defense on its heels like Alabama did, albeit by different means.
Much like Michigan’s, Georgia’s offense also lacks for explosive ability. Their best receiver is TE Brock Bowers, who is arguably the best player at his position in all college football; but he’s not going to take the top off a defense. WR George Pickens can stretch the field, but he hasn’t been healthy all season coming off an ACL tear, plus he only joined the team in Miami a couple days ago due to COVID. But Georgia’s limitations in the passing game are not as big an issue against Michigan, who excel at taking away big plays, as it was against Alabama. Georgia wants to neutralize DE Aidan Hutchinson by avoiding adverse passing situations where they are in obvious passing sets. Georgia was among the nation’s best at that throughout the season. Stetson Bennett became the SEC’s top-rated passer via play-action, RPOs, screens and rollouts. Being successful at that will obviously hinge on running the ball effectively. That won’t be easy, as Michigan possesses a good all-around defense, but they did surrender an average of 122 ypg on the ground this season. If Georgia can eke out just enough yards to stay on schedule (i.e. 2nd/3rd Down and Short), that might be all they need.
This is another game that I think will be closer than the spread suggests, and while the underdog covers, the favorite prevails. Look for an SEC Championship rematch in the Final.
My Pick: Michigan +7.5
Happy New Year! Here’s to a happy, healthy and prosperous 2022.
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.