Two Top 10 teams in the Playoff Rankings went down in defeat in Week 10, and several other Top 10 teams barely staved off upsets of their own. And the crazy season of 2021 marches on. And as expected, there were some changes to the CFP rankings released Tuesday.
Overreaction: Georgia is the only championship-worthy team this season. We could crown them now and be done with it.
One of the biggest complaints of the Playoff era is that all we get are the same four teams most years, and even then it’s usually only two teams that really matter, resulting in some dull blowouts in the semifinals. Well, if you are one of those people, here’s the parity you wanted. Yes, Georgia is the one noteworthy exception….and yet they aren’t one of those teams you can say get in all the time (seeing as they’ve only made it once before in the 7-year history of the CFP).
After you get past the Bulldogs, who really stands out? You have a handful teams that are probably very good; Alabama, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Michigan, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Oregon. (And more to the paragraph above, note the absence of CFP mainstay Clemson from that list) For most of the schools I named, it was not a great week. Michigan State lost to unranked Purdue. Alabama nearly lost to what could almost be considered LSU’s scout team. Cincinnati needed a late goal line stand to keep their game against Tulsa from going to OT. Ohio State and Oregon posted mostly unimpressive wins against inferior competition. Oklahoma had the week off, but they are no stranger to barely getting past lesser opponents. Only Michigan had a good day Saturday; against a bad, and badly wounded, Indiana team.
All of the teams I named above have some flaws. None of them can win a game just by showing up. At the same time, any of them on their best day could compete with, and maybe even defeat Georgia.
My point is this is perhaps the most expansive and evenly-matched field we’ve seen in college football for a long time; maybe second only to 2007, the most insane season we’ll probably ever live to see. Let’s enjoy it. The unpredictability is good for the sport. Do you want to go back to the really old days of college football, where we just crowned a champion without any assurances they would have to be tested against whoever ends up #2? Do you think it’s unfair that if Georgia is 13-0 and clearly the cream of the crop, that they still have to win two more games to be the champion? Well, ok….but that’s the system we have. If they lose, they can go commiserate with the 2007 New England Patriots over how much it hurts to know you’re the best, but just couldn’t quite finish. Misery loves company.
Recalibration: There needs to be a new name added to the Heisman Trophy conversation.
Let’s do a blind comparison of two actual FBS running backs.
Player A plays on an 8-2 team ranked in the CFP Poll:
1,176 rushing yards | 5.7 YPC | 17 TDs | 20 receptions | 7.5 yards per rec.
Player B, plays on an 8-1 team ranked in the CFP Poll:
1,340 rushing yards | 6.8 YPC | 15 TDs | 10 receptions | 5.6 yards per rec. w/1 TD
Player B has slightly better numbers, and in one less game. He is mentioned regularly as being a Heisman finalist. Player A is someone whose name I have yet to hear in the Heisman discussion.
As you may have guessed, Player B is Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker III. Player A is BYU’s Tyler Allgeier. For those who think Allgeier has benefitted from a weak G5 schedule, BYU has played 6 of their 10 games thus far against Power 5 opponents. Both have faced two opponents currently ranked in the CFP. Sagarin’s SOS (Strength of Schedule) rates BYU 50th. Michigan State is #39.
The point here isn’t to say Allgeier has been as good as Walker. But I think he’s close enough that he deserves more mention. Chalk it up to Christian McCaffrey Syndrome (see: 2015 Heisman voting), a condition more commonly referred to as East Coast Bias.
Odds and Ends:
Michigan ahead of Michigan State? That head-to-head win sure aged quickly and poorly. Guess Harbaugh knew what he was doing when he made the statement yesterday that the Big Ten admitted to a costly officiating mistake in the MSU game. Well played, Jim.
Texas San-Antonio, one of only four remaining unbeaten teams, cracked the CFP rankings at #23. Congrats to you if you already knew their team is named the Roadrunners.
From 2008 to 2020, Illinois won a grand total of two games against ranked opponents. With their win at Minnesota on Saturday they have accomplished that feat twice in 2021.
The scariest words in the Big Ten: “[Name of Top 5 team] faces unranked Purdue today.” Luckily for Ohio State that’s no longer the case. (the unranked part, that is)
Florida is 2-8 in their last 10 games versus Power 5 opponents. Saturday’s 40-17 loss to South Carolina was especially bad. The question isn’t if Dan Mullen will be fired, it’s when. Changing offensive coordinators, as Mullen did when he fired Todd Grantham Sunday, seems unlikely to cut it.
Arizona ended the nation’s longest losing streak at 20 games against Cal. The Wildcats got a huge assist from COVID, as 24 Cal players and coaches were forced to quarantine earlier in the week. Those who didn’t make the trip to Tucson included starting QB Chase Garbers, 3 starting OL, and 3 starters on defense.
Things have not improved for Cal, as they will be unable to play USC as scheduled this weekend. While the Pac-12 has a policy that a team unable to play due to COVID must forfeit, it does sound like they are going to try to reschedule it. Since neither team is going to make the conference championship game, Dec 4 would seem like an obvious choice. (UPDATE: It is rescheduled for 12/4)
The Bears stated they have a 99% vaccination rate within their program, so obviously that’s a lot of breakthrough cases. Even with such a high vaccination rate, due to city of Berkeley rules, which many say are toughest in the nation, Cal faced mandated testing for all contacts of an infected person; symptomatic or not, vaccinated or not. It also states positive tests require a mandatory 10-day quarantine, with no opportunity to test out of the protocol, and no exceptions for vaccinated individuals. I could live with the mandatory testing part, but the mandatory 10 days is soooooo 2020. C’mon, Berkeley. Let vaccinated people get back to their lives as soon as they produce a negative test.
For an employee of an “academically prowess” university, Washington head coach Jimmy Lake made a decision that defies basic arithmetic. Down 8 points against Oregon and facing 4th-and-10 from their own 10 yard line, with 1:59 to play and only two timeouts left, logic dictates you pretty much have to go for it. Lake instead hoped he’d get the ball back with enough time to get a TD on 4-5 plays starting from roughly the same point on the field, and thus he elected to punt. The result, which was a bad snap that sailed out of the end zone for a safety, wasn’t what made it a poor decision. There are no good options in that circumstance, but going for it and trying to convert to get a drive jump-started was the least bad option.
The stress is apparently getting to Lake. After a confrontation with one of his own players on the sideline during the game, that appeared to involve physical contact from Lake, Washington announced that he has been suspended without pay for this week’s game at ASU. It would not shock me if he does not coach another game at UW.
Last week I highlighted how Georgia Southern hired its new head coach, Clay Helton, before their current season ended. Helton of course was fired by USC after Week 2, so he wasn’t exactly too busy. Now comes the news that Texas Tech has hired their new coach too. This time it’s Baylor associate head coach Joey McGuire. So now we’re seeing coaches poached off other staffs during the season….and the creep continues.
One coach who appears to be safe for the time-being is Nebraska’s Scott Frost. NU AD Trev Alberts announced Monday that Frost would return in 2022, albeit on a restructured contract (read: less guaranteed money, heavier on incentives). Apparently that agreement also came with an ultimatum; later that day Frost fired 4 members of his offensive staff, including OC Matt Lubick.
Game of the Week
#8 Oklahoma at #13 Baylor
Noon ET, FOX
Spread: Oklahoma -5.5
This is the time of season where the Sooners usually hit their stride. With Baylor, followed by Iowa State and Oklahoma State, they hope history repeats itself. Add in the Big 12 Championship Game and the Sooners have the schedule that should enable them to climb the Playoff rankings….if they win.
No surprises what we expect to see in this matchup, and that’s offense. (As the 62.5 over/under would indicate) The Sooners average a gaudy .30 EPA per play offensively, 3rd in the country. The Bears are not far behind at .23 EPA, good for #7. As is customary in the Big 12, defense is optional. Baylor does have an edge here, ranking 68th in surrendering .09 EPA per play, with Oklahoma being downright ugly giving up .17 EPA, #107 in the nation.
The Sooners are only 4-5 this season ATS, 3-5 when they are favored by 5.5 or more. Oklahoma has one big edge: they are coming off a bye week, while Baylor is coming off a heartbreaking last-minute loss to TCU. I think a rested Sooners squad capitalizes to begin their crucial late-season stretch.
My Pick: Oklahoma -5.5
Still on the Oregon Trail
Washington State at #3 Oregon
7:00pm ET, ESPN
Spread: Oregon -14
I’m not trying to work the hometown angle by featuring Oregon again. I’m mostly focused on picking games with Playoff implications that I think could go either way. (Warning: if the Ducks win, I’m probably featuring their game next week at Utah as well)
The recent history of this series alone suggests the Cougars are not to be overlooked. (Wazzou has won 4 of 6) That aside, they seemingly have shrugged off the controversy of Nick Rolovich’s dismissal, not to mention that of 4 other assistants….they nearly upset BYU just days after, then toppled Arizona State in Tempe. Adding to the intrigue is that not only is the Ducks’ Playoff status on the line, but so is the Pac-12 North. If the Cougars win, they take over first place by virtue of tie-breaker. So not only can they knock Oregon from the CFP, but potentially the Rose Bowl too.
Despite all that, a simple glance at both the raw numbers and advanced stats for the Cougars shows a team that does not crack the Top 50 in any major category. One area they do show well is playing disciplined football (averaging <5 penalties per game for just 42 yards). They also have a slight edge in turnovers at +6 on the season. Still, this is not a team that should be that competitive against Oregon….and yet, they probably will. As I’ve said several times before, Oregon has made a habit of playing to the level of their opponent. Yes, the Ducks have had a lot of injuries to juggle, and that will still be the case in this game. That they are 8-1 is a testament to their depth. But with the way they recruit, that depth shouldn’t be struggling quite like they have.
They really need QB Anthony Brown to cut down on the mistakes. That’s where they tend to dig holes for themselves in games. Of course, Brown often times is a big reason they manage to climb out of those holes too. If he simply leaves the shovel in the locker room, the Ducks will be fine. I still think it’ll be close.
My Pick: Washington State +14
You’re Next
#19 Purdue at #4 Ohio State
3:30pm ET, ABC
Spread: Ohio State -20
If you are a Top 5 team, the last thing you want to see on your schedule is Purdue. Ohio State already had their struggles last week with Nebraska, a not-very-good team who still has a way of making better opponents work for it, but always come up short. Purdue will close when they have you on the ropes. This feels like a game that will go to one or the other extreme….either the Buckeyes cover the 20 points without much drama, or the Boilermakers pull another stunner. I’m leaning towards the former.
My Pick: Ohio State -20
My Top 12
| 1 | Georgia |
| 2 | Alabama |
| 3 | Ohio State |
| 4 | Cincinnati |
| 5 | Oklahoma |
| 6 | Oregon |
| 7 | Michigan State |
| 8 | Michigan |
| 9 | Texas A&M |
| 10 | Notre Dame |
| 11 | Oklahoma State |
| 12 | BYU |
FOUR games this week featuring head-to-head ranked teams!
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.