College Football 2022 – ACC Atlantic Breakdown

The ACC Atlantic had its first champion not-named Clemson since 2014. While the Tigers aren’t going away, just about every team in the division returns an experienced roster.

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Clemson – Clemson saw a run of five straight Atlantic division titles (the ACC didn’t have divisions in 2020), six straight conference championships and six straight CFP appearances end last year. They still won 10 games, but largely became an afterthought once they picked up their second loss in Week 4. Despite all the recent success, this has the feel of a very crucial season for coach Dabo Swinney’s program if they are to remain among the sport’s elite, at least in perception. A 10-3 season now and then is understandable, if not acceptable, if you are playing in a conference like the SEC. Not so much in the ACC, where a nationally elite program is expected to dominate every year. Still, Swinney continues to do things his own way: from replacing two coordinators without ever looking beyond their building, to rarely utilizing the transfer portal to fill a need or add depth.

It’s no secret why Clemson fell short of its own standard last season: an offense that ranked just 99th in the country. After two great showings in place of COVID-sidelined Trevor Lawrence in 2020, QB TJ Uiagalelei regressed in his first full season as a starter. According to Pro Football Focus, Uiagalelei was off-target on 17% of his pass attempts, which ranked 96th out of 110 QB who had at least 200 attempts. Swinney said after spring practice that Uiagalelei remains the starter, but with 5-star true freshman Cade Klubnik right behind him, he may not have a long leash. Another unit that struggled in ’21 was the offensive line. It’s never been a position where Clemson has churned out great talent (just three Swinney-era drafted players are currently in the NFL), but they hope a lot of returning experience will help. If nothing else, LT  Jordan McFadden is an NFL talent who should make it four drafted OL playing on Sundays. The receivers are led by Joseph Ngata, but he needs to stay healthy. The running game is in good hands with RBs Will Shipley and Kobe Pace.

Clemson’s defense should again be among the nation’s elite, despite the loss of longtime coordinator Brent Venables. The defensive front wall of tackles Bryan Bresee and Tyler Davis, flanked by ends Myles Murphy and Xavier Thomas, is quite arguably tops in college football. There isn’t a whole lot of drop-off when they bring in their subs to give the starters a breather either. Trenton Simpson leads a linebacking unit that is relatively inexperienced but more athletic than their predecessors. If there is a vulnerability on defense then the secondary is likely it. CBs Andrew Booth and Mario Goodrich are in the NFL now, and S Lannden Zanders suddenly announced he was retiring from football. Getting young talent up to speed on that unit will be crucial for new coordinator Wes Goodwin.

NC State -Team that all-but-ended any hopes for Clemson’s 7th-straight Playoff appearance was the Wolfpack, who knocked the Tigers off in a thrilling 27-21 overtime win in Raleigh. They came just one win short of only the second 10-win season in program history when UCLA had to back out of the Holiday Bowl due to COVID. But if any game should stick in their craw, it ought to be either the 1-point loss at Miami or the 3-point loss at Wake Forest. The loss at Wake cost them the division title. Expectations are high for this season, with 17 starters returning and plenty of experienced depth, especially on defense.

The offense is led by QB Devin Leary, perhaps one of the biggest under-the-radar QBs in ’21. Leary threw a school record 35 touchdowns last season against just 5 interceptions. Pro Football Focus graded him as the 3rd most effective QB in the red zone, behind only Caleb Williams and Spencer Rattler. Yet Leary only received honorable mention on the all-conference teams, albeit in a conference that featured Kenny Pickett, among others. Leary figures to command a lot more attention this season, especially if he can lead NC State to where it’s never been before; a spot in the ACC Championship game. Despite having to replace #6 NFL pick Ikem Ekwanu at LT, the offensive line returns a bevy of experience. Anthony Belton, a second-year transfer from Georgia Military Academy, figures to take over for Ekwanu. WRs Thayer Thomas and Devin Carter return for their sixth and fifth years, respectively. Fifth-year TE Trent Pennix is also back to round out a very experienced receiving group for Leary. One big question mark is at running back. Fourth-year back Jordan Houston, who has 752 rushing yards in his career, will likely take on a larger role.

While the offense returns a good amount of experience, the defense has ten starters back, plus it should feature a lot of backups with extensive starting experience thanks to several injuries last season that forced a lot of their depth chart into action. The defense is not short on talent either, as they were 21st in the country in yards per game allowed and 14th in points per game allowed. DT Corey Durden, LB Drake Thomas and S Tanner Ingle each were voted on the All-ACC 1st Team. Four other defenders received honorable mention. There really isn’t an on-field weakness to highlight; what really matters is that they stay relatively healthy.

Wake Forest – The defending Atlantic Division champions were led by a unique RPO-based offense, one that most days was able to overcome a defense that struggled. They finished tied for the most wins in program history (11) and the highest ever season-ending ranking in the AP Poll (#15). With nearly 20 players returning that have at least some starting experience, the hope is that 2021 was not a one-off. Head Coach Dave Clawson has done an excellent job of building a solid program in a place where unique challenges typically prevent that; Wake is the smallest school by enrollment in FBS and generally takes an academics-first approach to athletics. Not counting the 2020 COVID season in which they played just 9 games, the Demon Deacons have 5 straight winning seasons, something that hasn’t happened since the 1940’s.

A big reason for the success of the RPO offense with the exaggerated mesh-point is QB Sam Hartman, who is back for his fifth season. The All-ACC 2nd Team honoree led an offense that was 4th in the country in points per game (41). He is currently 8th on the ACC’s all-time TD pass leaders, and at just 35 behind the leader (Tahj Boyd) the record is within reach, as he threw for 39 last year. For all Hartman’s experience, the linemen in front of them are even more veteran. The Deacs start a “youngster” at LT in LeVonte Gordon, who only has been around for four years. The line is rounded out by one fifth-year player, two sixth year players, and one who is back for a seventh year after getting an NCAA injury exemption. Wake saw their leading rusher from each of the two previous seasons leave via transfer; first Kenneth Walker III (Michigan State) and then Christian Beal-Smith (South Carolina). This year they will turn to Christian Turner and Justice Ellison, who combined for 1,047 yards and 12 TDs in ’21. 4-star freshman Demond Claiborne could also figure in the mix. The Deacons get WR Donavan Greene back after he missed all of 2021 due to injury. Greene is the highest-rated signee in program history. Flanking him will be fifth-year man A.T. Perry.

It wasn’t entirely bad for the Deacons’ defense last season. They were actually 5th in the country (1st in the ACC) in takeaways last season (29). But they were badly burned by big plays, surrendering 228 plays of 10 or more yards (129th) and 73 plays of 20 or more yards (120th). All that resulted in a defense that was 88th in scoring (28.9 ppg) and 91st in yards allowed per game (413). In search of improvement Clawson brought in a familiar face, Brad Lambert, who spent 7 seasons at Wake under former head coach Jim Grobe coaching linebackers, plus three more seasons as defensive coordinator. Lambert will try to plug the leaks without taking away their aggressiveness that enabled them to do well at forcing turnovers. He’ll have a very experienced group featuring 10 players who have at least one prior start on their resume. A deep and experienced defensive front should be led by fifth-year DE Rondell Bothroyd, who earned All-ACC honorable mention last season after registering 16.5 tackles-for-loss. The linebacker and secondary units are somewhat thinner on depth, and will be looking for contributions from younger players along with their biggest transfer portal addition, S Brendon Harris from Vanderbilt.

Florida State – Florida State suffered its fourth straight losing season in 2021. The last time that happened was 1973-76. That ’76 season was Bobby Bowden’s first as the Seminoles’ head coach. In fact, that ended up being the last losing season (not counting vacated wins) the program experienced until the beginning of the current streak in 2018. As head coach Mike Norvell enters his third season, the minimum expectation is that there will be tangible signs of progress. If they are to do so, they must avoid repeating 2021’s brutal 0-4 start, which included an inspiring, but heart-breaking 3-point loss to #9 Notre Dame followed by a galling last-play Hail Mary defeat to Jacksonville State. That they rebounded to go 5-3 the rest of the way might be a sign of growth. 15 starters from that 5-7 team are back, though they have just 8 seniors on their roster. Getting to a bowl game in 2022 would appear to be a must for Norvell. While that sort of incremental progress might not totally satisfy an impatient fan base, it’s not evident who the playmakers will be that could lead them to much more than that.

Junior QB Jordan Travis mirrored his team’s fortunes over the latter portion of 2021. In their final 7 games Travis completed 65 percent of his passes for 1,302 yards with 17 touchdowns, two interceptions and 498 rushing yards. If he can pick up right where he left off, the Seminoles should improve their overall record. That Travis is also the leading retuning rusher is an indication that the running back situation is up for grabs. Oregon transfer RB Trey Benson had a very good showing in the spring game and could emerge as the leader among the backs. Another Oregon transfer, WR Micah Pittman, leads a unit that also includes portal additions Johnny Wilson (Arizona State), Deuce Spann (Illinois) and Winston Wright Jr. (West Virginia). The offensive line has been the Achilles heel of the Seminoles offense for what seems like the better part of a decade. Last season was no exception as they were 114th in the country in sacks allowed and 97th in tackles-for-loss given up. They do return four starters, but the unit is still extremely young; 14 of 16 scholarship OL are sophomores or younger. Their play may well determine the season for the entire team.

The improvement from 2020 to 2021 for the FSU defense was significant. Despite returning 10 starters in 2020 they allowed 456 yards per game and 36 points per game, both marks the worst in school history. With only 7 starters back last year they improved to 378 yards per game and 26.5 points per game. They’ll welcome 8 starters back this season, though replacing DEs Jermaine Johnson (1st Team All-ACC and #26 NFL pick) and Keir Thomas (3rd Team All-ACC) up front will be a challenge. An interesting name to watch is Albany transfer DE Jared Verse, an FCS All-American who FSU coaches loved when they saw him on film while preparing for Syracuse. The Seminoles primarily play two linebackers in their 4-2-5 alignment, and both starters from last year, Kalen DeLoach and DJ Lundy, are back. Their secondary figures to be very good, returning 4 starters to a unit that was 40th in the country in yards per pass attempt allowed. That the unit was very young in ’21 (three freshmen started) is promising. S Jammie Robinson, a former South Carolina transfer who was 1st Team All-ACC last year, leads the unit.

Louisville – Scott Satterfield’s first-year turnaround from 2-10 in 2018, the final year of the Bobby Petrino 2.0 era, to 8-5 feels like a long time ago to Cardinals fans. The follow-ups, 4-7 in 2020 and 6-7 last year, has some wondering if 2019 was fool’s gold. There were enough close losses, 4 of the 7 by one score, that indicate they may not be far away. However, the week-to-week inconsistency in execution was frustrating at times. Looking ahead, their offense, led by 4th-year starting QB Malik Cunningham, should be strong. The big question is whether or not needed improvement from the defense will happen.

Cunningham did a great job of cutting down on turnovers last season; from 15 in 2020 (12 INT and 3 fumbles) to just 6 last season. Despite his strides in taking care of the ball he still struggled with consistency in. Part of that was probably due to the weight of the offensive production he was forced to carry by himself. Cunningham was also his team’s primary ground threat, leading the Cardinals in rushing yards (1,031) and TDs (20, just one shy of Lamar Jackson’s school record). This season he should be able to focus more on the passing game, as he’ll have a better group of running backs to take up the ground attack. That RB unit will likely be led by Tennessee transfer Tiyon Evans. Four of five starters on the offensive line are back, with former Virginia Tech transfer C Bryan Hudson the one new face. The receivers are the biggest question mark after losing Tyler Harrell to Alabama via the portal. In-bound transfers Tyler Hudson (Central Arkansas) and Dee Higgins (Miami) will have to pick up the slack.

The Cardinals return 10 starters to a defense that finished 83rd in total defense, 88th in yards per play against, 77th in scoring defense, 73rd in rushing defense and 94th in passing defense. That was a long fall for a defense that was 39th in the country in 2020. They hit the transfer portal pretty hard, especially in the secondary, so odds are not all of those ten ’21 starters will earn their job back. DE Ashton Gillotte is the most promising returnee on the front line; he played as a true freshman last season and had four sacks. Edge rusher Yasir Abdullah, (2nd Team All-ACC, 10 sacks) is also back and should complement Gillotte nicely. Ole Miss transfer Momo Sanogo is the likely Will LB. As mentioned, the secondary could receive a major facelift thanks to inbound transfers. Safeties M.J. Griffin (Temple) and Jalen Alexander (Duke), along with cornerbacks Jarvis Brownlee (Florida State) and Quincy Riley (Middle Tennessee St) could all be in the mix to start or earn significant roles. All told, the defense clearly has the most room for improvement and will likely determine how successful Louisville’s season is.

Boston College – The Eagles have been one of the nation’s most consistent teams. Consistently mediocre, that is. Dating back to 2016, the Steve Addazio era, they have won either 6 or 7 games every season. Current coach Jeff Hafley, entering his third season, was not hired to win 6-7 games every year. Losing QB Phil Jurkovec for much of last season with an injured wrist likely impacted their results. Despite not having him they still had Clemson on the ropes in Death Valley. With Jurkovec back, who some say could be a 1st Round NFL pick, there is some enthusiasm regarding what the Eagles could be this season.

Jurkovec is known as a very good deep passer, but struggles with accuracy on short passes. The numbers bear that out. His pass efficiency on throws of 15-plus yards last season would have ranked No. 12 nationally if extrapolated to give him the minimum attempts to be ranked. His pass efficiency on throws less than 15 yards would have ranked No. 108. While 2021 was somewhat of a wash for him with the injury, it’s still hard to explain the stark difference. For all the excitement surrounding Jurkovec’s return, there is much trepidation with regard to who will be protecting him. The Eagles expected to have just one returning starter from last season’s offensive line, that being RG Christian Mahogany, a potential 1st Round NFL pick himself. Then Mahogany was lost for the year in June when he tore an ACL, forcing the Eagles to face the season with an entirely new and unproven offensive line. There’s no understating how big a concern that is. On the brighter side, despite receiving overtures to transfer leading WR Zay Flowers is back, who along with WR Jaelen Gill and Notre Dame transfer TE George Takacs gives Jurkovec a reliable group of targets. Leading rusher RB Patrick Garwo (1,027 yards, 5.1 ypc) also returns, and like Jurkovec will have to hope for the best when it comes to the line blocking for him.

BC had a solid defense last season despite a lot of injuries on the defensive line, particularly DT Chibueze Onwuka who tore an Achilles in the first week of training camp. With a return to health and the benefit of more playing time for their depth chart last season, they should be better than the 4.53 yards per carry allowed (94th in FBS). They return their two leading tacklers in linebackers Kam Arnold and Vinny DePalma. The secondary looks strong as well, returning four starters in safeties Jaiden Woodbey and Jason Maitre, cornerback Elijah Jones and nickel Josh DeBerry. Expect a strong defense that is at least as good as last year’s group that gave up just 22.2 points per game, 3rd best in the ACC.

Syracuse – The Orange’s big 10-3 season in 2018 now appears a far back in the rearview mirror. Head coach Dino Babers has seen his team go just 11-24 since then. Over that time they changed their offensive identity from a high-flying aerial attack to ground-and-pound in ‘21. As their 5-7 record suggests, they weren’t awful last year. In fact, they suffered three consecutive midseason losses to Florida State, Wake Forest and Clemson by just three points each. One play and they would have gone bowling. Three plays and we might be discussing an 8 or 9 win team. But whether it’s passing, running or a more balanced approach, Babers & Co. need to find their formula.

QB Garrett Schrader was a good find last season, as he nearly ran for 1,000 yards. After starting the season as the change-of-pace running quarterback, he took over the starting job for since-departed Tommy DeVito (Illinois) and the job is now his. In hopes of adding more of a passing dimension to the offense Babers brought in former Virginia offensive coordinator Robert Anae, who will also add a faster pace. Still, Syracuse shouldn’t stray too far from what worked so well for them last season in the running game (214 yards per game). Especially since they return leading rusher and 1st Team All-ACC RB Sean Tucker (1,552 yards, 12 TDs). Up front the offensive line, which was a major weakness the previous couple seasons, improved and returns three starters plus Florida transfer RG Chris Bleich. However, with greater emphasis on the passing game the unit will need to improve at giving Schrader time. The passing game will be helped with the return of all four of last year’s leading wide receivers, even though they were not called upon much.

The Orange defense was solid for much of the season, but faded badly down the stretch, allowing 37.6 points per game in their final three games. They were also anemic when it came to forcing turnovers, just 7 for the entire season. Their 3-4 defensive front is relatively green; no regular starters back and just one career start among them. They are also very smallish; only NT Terry Lockett is listed at over 250 lbs, and he is listed at just 264 lbs. The eight defenders behind them are much longer on experience. The linebacking duo of Stefon Thompson and Marlowe Wax combined for 11 sacks last season, and both return. While the team forced so few turnovers, CB Darian Chestnut returns as the leading interceptor (3) and he is flanked by a good cover corner in Garrett Williams. Jason Simmons and Ja’Had Carter return as safeties. If the defensive line can hold up, the Orange can be pretty good on that side of the ball.