Today was the last Saturday without college football until January 2023! To celebrate, here’s a quick look at who I think the favorites are in the Big 12 and Pac-12, plus who the top Group of Five teams are (and which one has the best chance to sneak into the playoff).
Big 12
Oklahoma – Brett Venables will lead his team on the field for the first time as a head coach with a roster that, by his own estimation, has 50 players that have never suited up for the Sooners before. Just 10 starters from last season, and 44 lettermen overall, are back. They did add some good pieces via transfer, most notably QB Dillon Gabriel from UCF. New offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby will have them going at a very fast pace. Venables will obviously have a very disciplined defense; the big question is whether there is the right combination of talent and experience on that side. With so many new faces in the program the Sooners feel like a wild card without having a good look at them; a playoff berth isn’t entirely out of the question, but neither is a 3-loss season.
Oklahoma State – QB Spencer Sanders returns for his fourth season as the starter. He’ll need to play a lot more like he did in the Fiesta Bowl win against Notre Dame (4 TDs, 0 INTs) than he did in the conference championship game loss to Baylor (0 TDs, 4 INTs). His performance becomes even more critical when you consider the defense, which was among the Top 10 in the nation in 2021, loses 7 starters and its coordinator (Jim Knowles to Ohio State). Having to go on the road to play both Baylor and Oklahoma only adds to the challenge for Mike Gundy & Co. to get back to a New Year’s Six bowl, or more.
Baylor – Baylor faces a somewhat similar quandary to Oklahoma State, though their most impactful losses are on the offensive side of the football. Sophomore QB Blake Shapen, who started two games including the conference championship game, takes over as the full-time starter. He’ll be without the Bears’ top two rushers and receivers from last season. On the plus side, four starting offensive linemen return, including two preseason All-Conference selectees. Defensively they are a little better off with five starters up front back, including what may be one of the five best defensive lines in the country. But the secondary is very inexperienced and will have to get up to speed quickly if they are to defend their conference title.
X-factor: Kansas State – Bijan Robinson of Texas gets most of the accolades in the conference, but RB Deuce Vaughn is one of the best at his position in the country. DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah might be the nation’s best edge rusher that few people have heard of. The Wildcats are grinders, and while they may not win the conference, they should be a factor in determining who does.
Pac-12
Utah – This is the most complete, and one of the most veteran teams in the conference. QB Cameron Rising and RB Tavion Thomas form a potent 1-2 punch on offense, and a veteran offensive line makes it all possible. They have some replacements to make from last season’s defense, but the talent is there and the coaching on that side of the ball is always excellent. If they can come away with a win in a Week 1 trip to Florida, the talk of the Utes being a playoff contender will start. But there are still hurdles, including San Diego State (who beat them last year), USC, and a trip to Oregon, who will no doubt have that date circled after the Utes dealt them two embarrassing losses in ’21.
Oregon -Despite a coaching change, the Ducks have maybe the most talented roster in the conference. Questions surround first-time head coach Dan Lanning. Offensively they will have new starters at quarterback, running back and wide receiver. The offensive line is very good and very experienced. Defensively they are solid, even with the loss of DE Kayvon Thibodeaux; and Lanning obviously knows defense. While nothing is official, Auburn transfer Bo Nix would seem to have the inside track on QB1. Whether he can be more consistent in his new home will determine just how far the Ducks can go.
USC – Year 1 of the Lincoln Riley era has seen the Trojans garner a lot of preseason hype, thanks to a ton of star power on offense including QB Caleb Williams, WRs Jordan Addison and Mario Williams, and RB Travis Dye. But how the Trojans will fare in the trenches is a big concern. The offensive line features a solid starting five, but precarious depth. The defense, which was abysmal in ’21, received an overhaul that could feature as many as five transfers starting. That may not be good enough though, especially if their depth is tested. If USC can’t find away to outscore their opponents, fans will need to temper their immediate expectations.
Sleeper: Oregon State – The Beavers were the only Pac-12 team to beat Utah last season. QB Chance Nolan is back, and they return three starters on what was one of the best offensive lines in the country last year. Leading rusher BJ Baylor departed, but they have deep talent at the RB position. The big question mark is defense. A late-season change of coordinators seemed to yield some improvement, but they will have to improve even more if they are to pull a big surprise and sneak into the conference championship game.
Group of Five
BYU – There doesn’t appear to be another Cincinnati in the preseason field of G5 playoff hopefuls; but if you were to wager on the team with the best odds, it might be the Cougars. After a 10-3 season which saw them go 5-0 against the Pac-12 they return 19 starters, including QB Jaren Hall. They do have to replace RB Tyler Allgier, who ran for 1,651 and 23 TDs, but a very good offensive line with four starters back should be able to open holes. Their defense returns all 11 starters. One reason I like them as a G5 is their schedule. They play five Power Five teams, and four of them are ranked in the preseason Top 25 (Baylor, Oregon, Arkansas and Notre Dame). Add four G5 teams that made bowl games last year – Utah State, Liberty, East Carolina and Boise State – and you have a respectable enough schedule that if you go undefeated people have to take notice, even without a conference and 13th game to win. They will also need the sort of help the Bearcats had last season, when three of the Power Five conference champions had at least two losses.
Houston – The Cougars are the betting favorites in the AAC this year. Could they repeat what Cincinnati did and crash the playoff if they go 13-0? It’ll be tougher. While the AAC looks like the clear top G5 conference once again, their non-conference schedule (UTSA, Texas Tech, Kansas and Rice) lacks a Notre Dame type team. That convincing win in South Bend was what put the Bearcats into thick of the playoff race; along with no contenders coming out of three of the other Power Five conferences. Playoff or no playoff, he Cougars are still set up for a great season, even with the loss of RB Alton McCaskill to a torn ACL. They also would not have to face either Cincinnati or UCF until the conference championship game.
San Diego State – The Aztecs were led by their defense last season. They were 12th in the country in yards allowed per game (324.4) and 17th in points allowed (19.79 per game). Having a record-setting punter, Matt Araiza (a.k.a “punt god”) didn’t hurt when it came to optimal field position. The defense returns seven starters, though may take a small step back with All-American DE Cameron Thomas gone, as well as the punt god. They could make up for it with improved play at QB. Well-travelled Braxton Burmeister (from Oregon by way of Virginia Tech) should provide that. A late October trip to Fresno State, the only team to beat the Aztecs in regular-season play, could settle the West Division title.
Sleeper: Fresno State – The Bulldogs nearly pulled off an upset of Oregon in Week 1 last season, but they did go on to defeat UCLA and San Diego State on their way to a 10-win season. Head Coach Kaleb deBoer is gone (Washington), but back in the saddle is QB-whisperer Jeff Tedford for his second go-around in the Central Valley. That was enough to keep QB Jake Haener from following deBoer to Seattle and sticking around for his senior season. The return of his top two receivers, Jalen Cropper and Josh Kelly, along with four starting offensive lineman should make for a very difficult offense to slow down.
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.